Main points made by Westpac in thier CPI preview, saying “June CPI should not close the door on a rate cut”:
Westpac confirms its June quarter CPI forecast of 1.0%qtr/3.8%yr which we first released on June 18 and left unchanged at our July 2 update.
Our Trimmed Mean forecast is also unchanged at 0.9%qtr/4.0%yr.
For June, our forecast for a 0.3% rise in the month, which would see the annual pace ease from 4.0%yr in May to 3.5%yr in June (we did have 3.6%yr in early July).
June will provide a critical update on some services, including: rates & property charges, water & sewerage, child care, dental services, veterinary & other services for pets, and other financial services.
As our Chief Economist Luci Ellis recently expressed “we not that special” and it is unlikely Australia would move in the opposite direction to global disinflationary forces.
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June month and Q CPI is due from Australia on July 31.
The RBA meet the following week, August 5 and 6.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
