The lack of changes in the macro picture and the waiting for the key US data has caused the bullish momentum to wane recently. Growth
expectations remain positive and that should keep supporting bitcoin in the bigger picture.
The
only risk I see ahead for risk assets is a more hawkish repricing in
interest rate expectations if inflation worries increase. This
repricing might trigger a bigger pullback in bitcoin and the stock
market in the short-term, although the uptrend should remain intact.
The economic data is now back in focus, especially on the inflation side. We have three key events in the next couple of weeks with the NFP report tomorrow, the US CPI next week and the FOMC decision the week after.
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that bitcoin broke below the key trendline, and after a retest, continued lower towards the 102,127 level. From a risk management perspective, that level would offer a nice risk to reward setup for the buyers to position for new all-time highs. For now, we are consolidating below the newly created resistance aroudn the 106,800 level.
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we are compressing between two trendlines. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the upward trendline to keep pushing into new highs and increase the bullish bets on the break above the downward trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will continue to lean on the downward trendline and increase the bearish bets on the break of the upward trendline.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
