Geopolitics: Not in stage of optimism, but have made progress toward deal with HamasNetanyahu: Conditions are ready after the end of the war in the north, to deal wi. GazaChina’s Caixan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs 50.3 in OctoberPBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1865 (vs. estimate at 7.2384)Japan manufacturing PMI for November […]

Shares of Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) jumped 20% in the premarket following a company announcement that an independent special committee found no evidence of misconduct by management or the Board of Directors. Special Committee, backed by Cooley LLP and forensic accountants Secretariat Advisors, completed their review with no evidence of wrongdoing foundNo restatement of

At some point, policy needs to be driven by upcoming risks rather than being backward-lookingBut that is once we are sure inflation is in line to hit 2% targetThere is a little bit of distance to go in that regardServices inflation needs to come down furtherOnce disinflation process is completed, monetary policy needs to be

The initial proposal was that they wanted to reduce the reimbursements, so they’re now abandoning their plan in pursuing that. This was a sticking point in negotiations for the budget and the far-right had used this as a key factor in pushing for a no confidence motion against Michel Barnier’s government. We’ll see if it

Eurostoxx -0.6%Germany DAX -0.1%France CAC 40 -1.2%UK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX -0.4%Italy FTSE MIB -0.7% Michel Barnier’s government have only until this afternoon to set out a compromise on the budget with Le Pen’s far-right party. However, the latter has arguably already made up their mind in pursuing a non confidence motion against the government. And

Prior was 51.1Best reading since February 2023Output growth strongest in 2.5 yearsNew orders up at fastest pace in 21 monthsPort strikes and railway disruptions causing delivery delays Key pressure points: Input cost inflation at 18-month high on USD strengthExport orders down for 15th straight monthBusiness optimism dips to lowest since July Comments from Paul Smith

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

If you need an example to the adage that the stock market is not the economy, the DAX is one fine example of that. Since last year already, analysts have warned about a potentially more trying time for the German benchmark index. And that largely has to do with a struggling economic outlook. Yet, here

We see that inflation problem will soon end Again, all of this just reaffirms a 25 bps rate cut for this month. As things stand, traders are pricing in a ~76% probability of that with the remainder tied to a 50 bps move. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 6.3% Despite job concerns in the German manufacturing sector, we’re not seeing much of any spillovers to the overall Eurozone labour market. The jobless rate continues to hold at a low of 6.3% in October at least. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

As Bitcoin edges closer to the $100K milestone, the crypto market is preparing for a pivotal new cycle. Historically, BTC surges spark altcoin rallies, with liquidity eventually flowing into the memecoin sector. In this environment, projects with strong narratives and valuable utilities take center stage. Among them, Pepeto, the God of Frogs, is emerging as

German DAX futures -0.3%UK FTSE futures -0.1% The French CAC 40 futures are leading losses, down 0.9%, as political risks have resurfaced in Paris. The government is failing to reach a compromise on the budget with Marine Le Pen’s far-right party and that has raised the risk of a no confidence vote against Michel Barnier’s

The current state of the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin’s dominance and a high “Greed” sentiment on the Fear and Greed Index, points toward significant ongoing investor enthusiasm. This, combined with the recent ETF inflows and Bitcoin’s strong market share of 58.2%, suggests a favorable environment for Bitcoin and select large-cap assets in the near term.

ThinkMarkets, a leading online trading provider, has further solidified its reputation as an industry innovator by receiving two prestigious awards from renowned publications. Investors’ Chronicle Award One of the UK’s top financial markets magazines, published by the Financial Times Group, recognised ThinkMarkets as a leading Spread Betting Provider. The magazine’s audience evaluated spread betting providers

In what will likely draw political ire from the GOP and Pres. Elect Trump, President Biden has decided to pardon his son Hunter Biden. The decision is a reversal of Biden’s previous public statements that he would not pardon his son or commute his sentence. Biden faced sentencing on December 12 for federal gun charges

The EURUSD has moved down around -0.38% in the first few hours of trading in the new week, and in the process has moved down to test its 100 hour AM at 1.05305. That MA is just above the 200 hour MA at 1.05188. Both those MAs would need to be broken in the new

Prior quarter company profits pretax -1.7%Company profits pretax +1.6%Gross company profits -4.6% vs 0.7% estimate. Prior quarter -6.8% v -5.3% previously reported This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The week begins on Monday with the focus in the U.S. on the ISM manufacturing PMI, providing a picture of the health of the manufacturing sector. On Tuesday, Switzerland will release its inflation data, while in the U.S., attention will turn to the JOLTS job openings, offering a view of labor market conditions. Wednesday sees

The single currency is also falling to fresh lows against its other peers, with EUR/CHF now down 0.3% to dip below 0.9300 again. This comes as there is a growing risk of a French government collapse, with Michel Barnier failing to find a compromise on the budget with Marine Le Pen’s far-right party. This is

In case you missed it from the weekend: Trump weekend tweet roundup: ‘Productive’ meeting with Trudeau and a BRICS rant Trump threatened BRICS countries that if they were to divest from the dollar, then they will be slapped by tariffs. In the end, it will just be another one of his rants. I mean, 100%

The EURUSD has pushed lower in the new trading day/week and in the process has moved below the 100 hour MA at 1.05328 and down to test its 200 hour arrears or 1.05174. The price has bounced modestly off that moving average as risk focus buyers will to lean against support. However, the price remains

Manufacturing PMI 53.1 vs 53.5 expected and 54.5 prior. Key findings: Regional flooding reported to have limited growth Output, new orders and employment nonetheless rise solidly Confidence in outlook remains positive Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “The Spanish manufacturing sector continued its expansion in November

Considering economic developments, it would make sense for them to discuss a potential 50 bps rate cut. But as the job is not quite done yet on inflation, it may be an overreach to move that quickly especially with core inflation still seen at 2.7% in the latest report here. The disinflation process is facing

Japan’s factory activity fellin November at its fastest pace in eight months due to soft demand, prompting firms to reduce production. Manufacturing PMI: The final au Jibun Bank Japan manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 in November, the lowest since March, down from 49.2 in October.The index stayed below the 50.0 threshold (indicating contraction) for the

Prior +0.2% No changes to the initial estimate as the Italian economy is seen stagnating in Q3, with the outlook going into next year set to be even more challenging. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month +0.1%Business inventories -0.9% versus -0.4% estimate This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 44.5 It’s a light change compared to the initial estimate but reaffirms further downside in French manufacturing activity on the month. New order suffered its steepest drop since the first wave of the Covid pandemic as demand conditions remain extremely subdued – both domestically and internationally. That’s the main drag for the French industry

Final Manufacturing PMI 48.0 vs. 48.6 expected and 49.9 prior. Key findings: Output contracts as new orders fall Cost concerns lead to job cuts Supply chain stresses increase Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “Conditions in the UK manufacturing sector deteriorated again in November. The headline PMI fell to a nine-month low

The Israeli broadcasting Corporation cited source familiar with negotiations with Hamas stated they are not in a stage optimism, but are making progress. Hamas insists on stopping the war and without that no breakthrough will be achieved This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.1% UK house price growth pushed higher again in November, with the annual reading seen at 3.7% and accelerating from the 2.4% reading in October. The latter marks the highest reading in two years. And all of this continues to reaffirm strong appetite in the UK housing market with the BOE on the pathway

The pair is down 0.4% today to test waters below the 0.8300 level again. And while it also did so last month, there was no firm break of the key level when we got the monthly close. At least not what one can argue with too much conviction on the charts. And that’s been a

Prior 49.9 Swiss manufacturing activity slipped back in November, after a bounce seen in the months before. Both output and new orders expanded marginally but at a softer pace than in October. Meanwhile, employment conditions continue to ease further. Procure notes that if economic conditions in the Eurozone don’t recover, it will lead to the

Prior month 50.3Manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs 50.5 estimate Highest level since June 2024 when the index reached 51.8 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month 0.1%Retail sales for October 0.6% versus 0.4% expected The up and down pattern continues for the series. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The latest measures will see the US add roughly a dozen Chinese toolmakers and their subsidiaries/affiliates to the Commerce Department’s restricted trade list. In total, this will restrict exports to 140 companies in what is the third crackdown in three years on the Chinese semiconductor industry. This will be one of Biden’s last moves in

The USDCAD is climbing higher at the start of the new trading week, supported by the USD’s upward momentum. The pair is approaching two significant technical levels: the 100-bar moving average (MA) on the 4-hour chart and the broken 38.2% retracement of November’s trading range. These levels were breached on Friday, but the move lacked

The major currency pairs are off and running….well walking…. with modest changes to start the new trading week. Versus the USD: EUR +0.06%JPY -0.08%GBP+0.03%CHF UnchangedCAD -0.08%AUD-0.05%NZD +0.03% Bitcoin closed on Friday at $97,512 and the digital currency is trading at $97,522 after reaching a high of $97,880 (today) and a low at $95,758 (on Saturday).

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is opening up 0.02% and 38,216.95. Last week the index fell -0.20% for its third weekly decline. The index fell -2.17% during the week of November 11 and -0.93% in the week of November 18. For the trading month, the index fell -2.23%. For the year, the Nikkei 225 is up 14.58%

The AUDUSD has faced persistent resistance at the falling 100-bar moving average (MA) on the 4-hour chart, attempting to break above it three times over the past five trading days. Each attempt, including the most recent on Friday, failed to generate sustained upward momentum, and the price closed below the MA, currently at 0.65146. Current

Prior quarter +7.4%Business capital expenditures 8.1% versus 7.4% previous quarterCapital spending YoY (Q3) it will percent versus 6.7% expected. Prev 7.4%Company sales YoY (Q3) 2.6% versus 3.2% expected. Prior quarter 3.5%Company Profits YoY QQ3 -3.3% vs previous 13.2% Modest increase in the Japan Capex for the quarter This article was written by Greg Michalowski at

New month. New week. New day. Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior month 2.6% revised to 2.4%New Zealand October Building consents -5.2% Details Key Facts Seasonal Trends: New dwellings consented decreased by 5.2% in October 2024 (seasonally adjusted), following a 2.4% rise in September 2024.Annual Totals:33,467 new dwellings consented in the year ended October 2024, a 16% decrease from the year ended October 2023.The annual value

What is scheduled on the economic calendar in the Asian Pacific session for the new day starting December 2. The following is ET. Below is the same calendar for GMT: Now if I can figure out what Mountain Time US is in relation to the times above? I will figure it out. This article was

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: Australia Retail Sales, China Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland Retail Sales, Switzerland Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone Unemployment Rate, Canada Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Fed’s Waller.Tuesday: Switzerland CPI, US Job Openings.Wednesday: Australia Q3 GDP, China Caixin Services PMI, Eurozone PPI, US ADP, Canada Services PMI, US ISM Services PMI, Fed Chair Powell.Thursday: Switzerland

Trump has been blasting away on Truth Social. First off, Trudeau flew down to Mar-a-Lago to meet with him and they’re smiling in the picture. The tweet (or whatever you call it) is mostly upbeat. Separately, Trump went on a rant about BRICS countries and not using the dollar. This is a canard, Trump will

The hours of November trading are ticking down but jingle bells are ringing in the distance. That means that December trading is on the way and it’s the most wonderful time of the year for bulls. Risk assets tend to do well in December but for stocks, the period late in the month (after Christmas)

China released its official PMIs for November and the numbers are a mixed bag as Beijing contemplates further stimulus for 2025: Manufacturing 50.3 vs 50.1 prior (50.2 was expected)Non-manufacturing 50.0 vs 50.2 priorComposite 50.8 This is the second straight month of gains for the manufacturing index. On Friday, I highlighted fresh rumors about Chinese stimulus.

Canada Q3 GDP +1.0% vs +1.0% expectedJPMorgan now sees the ECB cutting rates by 50 basis points in DecemberUS equity close: Big finish to a great monthDecember forex seasonals: What’s hot, cold and gold in the month of December Markets: JPY leads, USD lagsUS 10-year yields down 6 bps to 4.18%S&P 500 up 0.6%Gold up

I love it when the month ends on a Friday, it’s so tidy. And there was plenty of love to go around in markets in November following the US election. Closing changes: S&P 500: +0.6%Nasdaq Comp: +0.8%DJIA: +0.4%Russell 2000: +0.65%Toronto TSX Comp: +0.3% (note that the TSX doesn’t close until 4 pm ET) On the

The headline from today’s Canadian GDP report is that growth declined on a per-capita basis for the sixth consecutive quarter. In addition, monthly GDP data showed just 0.1% m/m growth in September and October. CIBC writes: “While growth in the Canadian economy slowed to a crawl in Q3, that was broadly anticipated and was mainly

There is some major intrigue around central bank decisions in December and the Bank of Canada will be one of the first ones off the starting blocks on December 11. At the moment, the market is leaning 70/30 in favour of 25 bps rather than 50 bps. But that will swing based on today’s GDP

The largest 250 trading firms are set to make a total of $32 billion from trading of Group-of-10 rates and $16.7 billion from currencies, according to data collected by Coalition Greenwich and reported by Bloomberg. Those are declines of 17% and 9% compared to last year, respectively and the lowest since 2021. I’m surprised by

Sector Overview The stock market presented a mixed bag today, with notable discrepancies between the performance of tech giants and semiconductor stocks. The Technology sector saw varied outcomes. While Microsoft (MSFT) dipped by 0.81%, semiconductor leader Nvidia (NVDA) climbed 0.86%, signaling a shift in investor focus within the sector. Semiconductors: The semiconductor sector experienced a

Tokyo area November 2024 inflation data has jumped much higher: USD/JPY has dropped, this data is a solid point in favour of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike at its December 18-19 meeting. There won’t be a ‘national/ November CPI data release prior to the December BoJ meeting, but with a jump like this

Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 +0.6%German DAX +1.0%France CAC +0.7%UK FTSE 100 flatSpain IBEX +0.3%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.4% On the week: Stoxx 600 +0.4%German DAX +1.6%France CAC -0.2%UK FTSE 100 +0.3%Spain IBEX flatItaly’s FTSE MIB -0.25% It was a poor start to the week in Europe but turned around nicely on Thursday and Friday.

The Mexican peso is scarcely lower than where it was when Trump first announced he would be putting a 25% tariff on all exports from the country, including oil & gas. The market barely believed it at the outset because it would drive up prices for American, badly hurt American companies operating in Mexico and

Still net pessimistic, but much improved. At 99.8 it’s the highest in 3 years. As part of the survey ANZ question consumer inflation expectations. These moved up to 4.0% from 3.8% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: USD/JPY tests 150.00 mark after Tokyo inflation speeds upGold Technical Analysis – The path of least resistance remains to the upsideEurozone November preliminary CPI +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y expectedFrance November preliminary CPI +1.3% vs +1.5% y/y expectedItaly November preliminary CPI +1.4% vs +1.4% y/y expectedFrance Q3 final GDP +0.4% vs +0.4% q/q prelimSwitzerland Q3

China’s CSI 300 stock index rose as much as 2.3% today before fading to close up 1.1%. It was the second day of gains but it might be based on flimsy evidence. So far, the market has been disappointed by Chinese stimulus but hopes are building for more. A report from earlier this week highlighted

The Q2 reading was +2.1% annualizedQ/Q reading +0.3% vs +0.5% priorQ/Q implicit price index +0.6% vs +1.1% priorGov’t spending rose 1.1% in the quarterHousehold spending rose 0.9% in the quarterBusiness spending on machinery and equipment decreased 7.8% in the quarterHousing investment +0.8% in the quarter, the first expansion since the third quarter of 2023Corporate income

The S&P 500 has extended today’s gain to 30 points, or 0.5%. The Nasdaq Composite is outperforming, up 0.75%. Here is something the bulls will be happy to see. The AAII member survey is down to 37% bullish, which certainly isn’t a red flag around sentiment, especially going into the most-bullish month of the year.

Eurostoxx -0.1%Germany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 flatUK FTSE +0.1%Spain IBEX -0.3%Italy FTSE MIB -0.1% The changes are light but it reaffirms a more tentative mood in kicking off the final trading day of November. On the month itself, this is how regional indices are faring: Eurostoxx -1.6%Germany DAX +1.9%France CAC 40 -2.3%UK FTSE +2.2%Spain IBEX

There is a healthy debate about what’s causing the drop in Treasury yields this week. Some argue it’s month end flows and rebalancing, while others argue that it’s due to Trump’s pick of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary and hints that Kevin Warsh will be Fed chair. I’m sympathetic to the latter and worries about

Today we might get another choppy day in the markets as the Thanksgiving holiday period tends to carry through until the weekend even though the US markets are open today. The main highlight for today will be the Eurozone CPI data ahead of the ECB decision on the 12th of December. In the American session

Eyes on USD/JPY, as usual, its down towards 150.60 after the solid inflation data earlier: Tokyo area November inflation data, a big jump higher: Headline 2.6% y/y (prior 1.8%)USD/JPY towards 151.10 – the drop began before the CPI data officially published The dollar is lower more widely also. EUR/USD is near session highs circa 1.0570,

The market is pricing in just a 20% chance of a large ECB rate cut on December 12 but JPMorgan thinks that’s not enough. They’re out with a new note calling for 50 bps. Today’s prelim eurozone core CPI reading for December was 2.7% compared to 2.8% expected. The headline number creeped up to 2.3%

Prior +1.2% That’s a big miss in German retail sales with the drag largely stemming from non-food retail trade, which fell by 2.2% on the month. Despite a better showing at the end of Q3, the drag here highlights the ongoing struggles for the German consumer ahead of the holiday period. This article was written

I’ve posted on the Tokyo inflation data earlier today a couple of times. It came in at levels high enough to boost market assessment of a Bank of Japan rate hike at its December 18-19 meeting. Summary here: ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Tokyo inflation rose, JPY surged USD/JPY has dropped back under 150.00 since

The news hit yesterday that the controversial reforms to the RBA would be going ahead: Australia’s government has secured support from Greens party to pass RBA reform law For a rundown on what the reforms are, check this out: Reminder of what this is all about Reuters have a piece up saying: Australian central bank

Prior +0.9%HICP +1.6% vs +1.5% y/y expectedPrior +1.0% The nudge higher owes to base effects, similar to the rest of the euro area. However, core annual inflation is also seen marginally higher on the month – up from 1.8% in October to 1.9% in November. That said, it is still holding under 2% so that’s

Prior +0.7%; revised to +0.6% The Swiss economy continued to expand modestly in Q3 but headwinds are building in the final quarter of the year. With the euro area economy also slowing down in general, Switzerland won’t be able to escape that plight as well. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The Canadian economy grew at a 1.0% annualized rate in Q1, which was in-line with forecasts but a further drilling down in the data highlights a troubling trend. GDP was flat in August, then grew just 0.1% in Sepemteber and the advance estimate for October was +0.1%. The slowly pace of growth is further compounded

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq is slowly crawling back to the all-time high. The market continues to look forward to the next year with Trump’s policies being a positive driver for growth. The only bearish reason we had for the stock market was the rise in Treasury yields. That’s generally bearish only when the Fed is

Deutsche Bank flags rising risks to December Fed rate cut, signals extended policy pauseECB vice president Luis de Guindos is speaking on FridayChina official PMI data due this weekend – manufacturing and services expansion expectedTokyo inflation acceleration – recapping the yen supportive data published earlierThe potential for a December Federal Reserve rate cut cited for

The expiries board doesn’t contain too much on the day, with it still coinciding with the Thanksgiving holiday period. US markets will be open but it is likely that liquidity conditions will remain thinner than usual. Looking at the board, perhaps there is just one to take note of – that being for EUR/USD at

ANZ on gold, a note highlighting: gold prices higher on the prospect of a December Fed rate cut after the US personal consumption expenditure data earlier in the week came in line with expectations pricing up around a 70% chance for a 25bps rate cut in December, from just over 50% a week agogeopolitical tensions

Fundamental Overview Gold continues to find support around some key technical levels as in the bigger picture it remains in a bullish trend amid the Fed’s easing cycle. The corrections will likely be triggered by the repricing in rate cuts expectations. The next big event for Gold will be the US CPI report due in

1130 GMT / 0630 US Eastern time – Speech by ECB vice president Luis de Guindos at Encuentro de Economia organised by Fundació Internacional Olof Palme in Barcelona He spoke earlier this week: ECB’s de Guindos: Concerns about high inflation have shifted to economic growthleaning towards a December ECB rate cut de Guindos This article

The S&P Global Ratings outlook for the first quarter of 2025 is titled “Buckle Up”. Key points made in the report: Even before taking office, a second Trump administration is already moving the macro-financial needle and raising downside risks for the global economy. The degree of ultimate policy implementation is a key unknown.Our preliminary policy

Prior 65.65k; revised to 66.12kNet consumer credit £1.1 billionPrior £1.2 billion Slight delay in the release by the source. That’s a notable jump in mortgage approvals, with the reading being the highest since August 2022. It reaffirms the strong sentiment surrounding the UK property market, with prospects likely to improve further as the BOE is

Prior +2.0%Core CPI +2.7% vs +2.8% y/y expectedPrior +2.7% The headline estimate may have nudged higher in November, largely due to base effects, but the core estimate remains steady at 2.7%. If anything, it reaffirms a 25 bps rate cut for next month as the disinflation path remains bumpy in the euro area. Looking at

The Tokyo inflation data is here: Tokyo area November inflation data, a big jump higher: Headline 2.6% y/y (prior 1.8%) And concerns about a leak were aired here: USD/JPY towards 151.10 – the drop began before the CPI data officially published The Wall Street Journal have a recap of the data. The Journal is gated

Prior -0.4% The jump here is broad-based but also owes a little to energy prices. If you strip that out, import prices were still seen up but by 0.4% on the month. Looking at the breakdown, there were increases in the price for consumer goods (+0.5%), durable goods (+0.4%), intermediate goods (+0.5%), and capital goods

The news on this is here: ANZ now expect the RBNZ to cut by 50bp in February (revised from 25pb cut) Adding in a few more comments from ANZ: As expected, the RBNZ delivered another 50bp cut in the OCR to 4.25% at its November Monetary Policy Statement – a Statement that had something for

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The precious metal endured a poor start to the week but has recovered quite nicely since. The drop on Monday didn’t even touch $2,600 before buyers stepped in around the 38.2 Fib retracement level of the rebound in the week before. That led to a bit of a tussle around the key hourly moving averages

Prior 99.5; revised to 99.7 It’s an improvement to the month before but the recent trend points to more sideways momentum in the Swiss economy. And that suggests flagging economic conditions with a more challenging outlook surrounding Europe in general going into next year. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Inflation expectations for the next 12 months is seen at 2.5% and that is up from the 2.4% reading in September. That said, it is still keeping well lower than the readings in July and August of 2.8% and 2.7% respectively. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for three years ahead is seen at 2.1% – unchanged from

The yen is the main mover so far on the day, after Tokyo inflation showed signs of speeding up. That being said, it is worth noting that the higher figures also owes in part to the ending of government energy subsidies. So, there’s that. Nonetheless, traders are taking it at face value with the BOJ

There is no trade off between financial stability and growthStress testing will help with competitiveness of financial sectorNot seeing signs of higher corporate distress in relation to the budgetHave to watch for how the effects of the budget will pass throughBOE has sought to deliver financial stability while also supporting the economy (Breeden)We do not

The Japanese yen is the lead gainer on the day, helped by stronger Tokyo inflation data earlier here. The higher price figures owe to the ending of government energy subsidies though, so there’s that to consider. Nonetheless, it still spooked traders into pricing in higher odds of the BOJ hiking rates in December. That sent

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 is slowly crawling back to the all-time high. The market continues to look forward to the next year with Trump’s policies being a positive driver for growth. The only bearish reason we had for the stock market was the rise in Treasury yields. That’s generally bearish only when the Fed

Fundamental Overview We continue to see a pullback in the US Dollar as the market kind of reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This was signalled by the lack of US Dollar strength after lots of

Prior 27kUnemployment rate 6.1% vs 6.1% expectedPrior 6.1% German unemployment rose by less than expected on the month, with the jobless rate keeping steadier. The latter has been trending upwards over the past year or so, reaffirming softer labour market conditions with the manufacturing sector in recession. So, that will continue to be a spot

Fundamental Overview The Russell 2000 has been outperforming the other major indices recently as there’s much more value compared to the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq. The market is now looking forward to the next year with Trump’s policies being a positive driver for growth. The only bearish reason we had for the stock market

Deutsche Bank analysts have raised concerns that the Federal Reserve may skip a widely anticipated rate cut in December, citing stronger-than-expected economic resilience, a stabilizing labor market, and inflation persisting above 2.5%. While they still hold to their December rate cut forecast, the risks of a delay are “heightened,” according to the bank’s latest note.

Prior +1.2%HICP +1.7% vs +1.7% y/y expectedPrior +1.6% This just confirms a slight uptick in French consumer prices on the month. It is largely to do with base effects but looking at the details, services inflation is also seen nudging higher from 2.3% previously to 2.5% in November. That might be a worry if it

German DAX futures -0.2%French CAC 40 futures -0.2%UK FTSE futures -0.1% European indices bounced back yesterday but are being dealt a bit of a setback again on the final day of November. On the month itself, it has been a poor showing for the most part with only the DAX able to hold its head

It’s been a quiet one in US trading so far as FX trade sideways. Friday will be a tad more lively with stocks and bonds back open but it’s a de facto holiday as well and the US economic calendar is bare. There will be Canadian GDP tomorrow as Canada isn’t on holiday. This article

Comments from ANZ: After cutting 50bp this week RBNZ comms made it clear that a follow-up 50bp cut in Feb is their baseline, so we’ve tweaked our own OCR forecast accordingly. more to come *** Reserve Bank of New Zealand next meet on February 19, 2025 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.2%GDP +1.2% vs +1.3% y/y prelimPrior +1.0% French GDP is confirmed to have expanded by 0.4% in Q3, with the breakdown as per the following: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

ANZ Reserve Bank of Australia forecasts revision I posted earlier on the not dovish Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia: ICYMI – RBA Gov Bullock ruled out a rate cut This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Credit growth in Australia, September 2024 The y/y figures are all strong. For the m/m figures the growth in business credit is notable. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Both of these miss. On output, the outlooks: Manufacturers expect November output to be -2.2% m/mexpect December output to be -0.5% m/m Earlier from Japan today: Tokyo area November inflation data, a big jump higher: Headline 2.6% y/y (prior 1.8%)USD/JPY towards 151.10 – the drop began before the CPI data officially published This article was

The Tokyo headline CPI data showed a big jump in November: Tokyo area November inflation data, a big jump higher: Headline 2.6% y/y (prior 1.8%) As I said in that post, this data is a point in favour of a Bank of Japan rate hike at its December 18-19 meeting, and thus yen supportive. If

Japan’s Industry Minister says the government will provide up to 100 bln yen support for 8 projects including in semiconductors, advanced electronic components. Meanwhile, USD/JPY continues to plunge: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

PMIs from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) are due on Saturday, November 30, 2024 at 0130 GMT (which is 2030 GMT on Friday, November 29, 2024) In October 2024, these indicators showed signs of stabilization, with both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors returning to expansion territory. Key highlights include: Manufacturing Sector: Manufacturing PMI: The Purchasing

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Tokyo area inflation data is the focus for the session – this might give us a heads up what the Bank of Japan is thinking about a rate rise at the December 18-19 meeting. National-level CPI data for this month will follow in about three weeks, it takes longer to gather and collate the national

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Justin had the headlines from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock here: RBA’s Bullock: Underlying inflation is still too high to consider a near-term rate cut Which included these from Bullock: Policy will need to remain restrictive until there is more confidence on inflation There is still some way to go in returning inflation sustainably

Bitcoin rebounded strongly on Wednesday but it has given some back today on US Thanksgiving. It’s a quieter market with US equities and bonds closed and that’s spread to crypto, which has been less volatile. Bitcoin is down 1.1%, or $1,110 to $95,308 today. It fell as low as $90,638 on Tuesday but has rebounded

Reuters is out with some headlines on the OPEC+ meeting, which was scheduled for Sunday but was delayed until December 5. OPEC+ is discussing delaying the hike for Q1To hold further talks in the coming daysScheduled output increase for Jan is among the issues to be addressed None of this is a surprise. There has

Plan to overhaul the RBA could be back on the agenda. Australia’s government Labor Party and left-wing Greens Party held last-minute talks to revive the stalled legislation Bloomberg had the report (Bloomberg is gated). *** Reminder of what this is all about. In 2023, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) underwent a comprehensive review, leading

German DAX futures +0.3%French CAC 40 futures +0.3%UK FTSE futures +0.1% European indices ended mostly lower yesterday but are looking for a bit of a rebound today. It will be a quieter one with little help from Wall Street amid the Thanksgiving holidays. So, just be wary of that. This article was written by Justin

Prior -12.5Economic confidence 95.8 vs 95.1 expectedPrior 95.6; revised to 95.7Industrial confidence -11.1 vs -13.2 expectedPrior -13.0; revised to -12.6Services confidence 5.3 vs 6.2 expectedPrior 7.1; revised to 6.8 Slight delay in the release by the source. Economic sentiment in the euro area actually improved on the month but the devil is in the details.

Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 +0.5%German DAX +0.8%France CAC +0.5%UK FTSE 100 +0.1%Spain IBEX +0.4%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.6% Here is how Deutsche Bank tees up the recent declines in France. The biggest story yesterday came from France, where there remain serious concerns about the budget situation and a potential government collapse. That led to

We are aiming for inflation at 2.5%As long as inflation continues on its gradual slowing path, we will be in position to consider cutting rates at some pointWe don’t need inflation to be at target to cut ratesBut we need to be sure it is heading thereIf inflation picks up again, that would be a

Today I spoke with BNNBloomberg about the Canadian dollar, tariffs and why there could be a black swan looming around the US dollar. The video is below. Here are five questions: 1) Why is the Canadian dollar struggling? his week the Canadian dollar fell to the lowest level since May 2020. Excluding the pandemic and

ICYMI, in a note Citi analysts cautioned that Trump’s proposed tariffs could lead to a decline in S&P 500 earnings by a few percentage points. They noted that the market has not yet fully accounted for this risk, particularly with the new tariffs targeting China, Canada, and Mexico. Industries with substantial trade exposure, such as

Prior was 4.6% (revised to 4.9%) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

A small beat for the headline. Total new capital expenditure rose by 1.1%Buildings and structures rose by 1.1%Equipment, plant and machinery rose by 1.1%Estimate 4 for 2024-25 is $178.2b. This is 5.1% higher than Estimate 3 for 2024-25 *** Background to this. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes data on private new capital expenditure

Policy will need to remain restrictive until there is more confidence on inflationThere is still some way to go in returning inflation sustainably to target bandOur forecasts suggest a sustainable return to target will occur in 2026The board will reconsider policy approach as more data comes to hand Nothing new there from Bullock as she

If Ukraine becomes a nuclear power, Russia will use all means of destruction.Damage from ATACMS strikes on Russia was minimal.Choice of response weapon depends on damage. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +1.8%HICP +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y expectedPrior +1.8% Core annual inflation was seen at 2.4%, marginally lower than the 2.5% reading in October. So, that’s a welcome development and offsets the rise in headline prices which largely has to do with base effects. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The dollar sold off in trading yesterday, which arguably had more to do with month-end shenanigans more than anything else. The flows look to be rushed this time around as everyone wants to get things settled before the Thanksgiving holiday kicks in. And with that, we are seeing major currencies settle down again today with

Victory against inflation is in sight.The inflation target may be reached in early 2025.Our interest rates should clearly go to the neutral rate.We still have significant room to remove the restrictive stance of our monetary policy.I wouldn’t exclude going below the neutral rate in the future. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

It is hard to tell what Trump administration will do, as opposed to what they say they will doUS tariffs could potentially lead to a rise in US inflationBut it is not going to impact Australia inflation in the next six monthsWe have to set policy based on what we know rather than what’s in

New Zealand November 2024 Business Survey Business confidence 64.9% prior 65.7 Activity outlook 48.0% prior 45.9 ANZ comments: Business confidence eased 1 point to +65 in November, but expected own activity rose 2 points to +48. Experienced own activity rose a point to -10, while past employment lifted from -15 to -12. Pricing intentions fell

The expiries board today won’t mean much, as flows will be marred by the Thanksgiving holidays. The same applies for tomorrow mostly as well, although there are some large ones for EUR/USD to be mindful of just in case. Month-end shenanigans saw the dollar sold off in trading yesterday but we’ll see if there will

Headlines: Weekly update on interest rate expectationsRBA’s Bullock: Underlying inflation is still too high to consider a near-term rate cutRBA governor Bullock: If inflation falls more quickly than forecast, we can respondRBA governor Bullock: Hard to tell what lies ahead when it comes to Trump administrationECB’s Lagarde: Tariffs will be negative for global growth in

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 16 bps (65% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 75 bps ECB: 29 bps (85% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 147 bps BoE: 4 bps (85% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 71 bps BoC: 30 bps (82%

Everything was on the table this weekBut a consensus was reached for a 50 bps rate cut very quicklyDid not feel the need to do more than 50 bps because there is still work to do on inflationHave to make sure core inflation is sustainably at target mid-point Her remarks are consistent with what Orr

Prior was -8.5 billion (revised to -4.7 billion) This is not a market moving release This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +2.0%HICP +2.4% vs +2.6% y/y expectedPrior +2.4% Slight delay in the release by the source. Headline annual inflation crept a little higher but less than estimated, as per the state readings earlier. That owes more to base effects, with monthly inflation seen down 0.2%. The EU-harmonised reading was the same as October though for

Fundamental Overview We continue to see a pullback in the US Dollar as the market kind of reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This was signalled by the lack of US Dollar strength after lots of

Imposing tariffs arbitrarily on trade partners won’t solve the problems that the US have itself It’s all a war of words for now. But when the time comes, expect some form of tit-for-tat retaliation at the very least. It’ll be interesting to see how much of a resemblance we will get to Trump’s first term

The Bank of Korea was widely expected to leaves the rate unchanged. Nope, cuts by 25bp to 3%. Forecasts from the Bank: 2024 GDP growth at 2.2% (vs 2.4% seen in Aug)2024 inflation at 2.3%2025 GDP growth at 1.9% (vs 2.1% seen in Aug)2025 inflation at 1.9%2026 inflation at 1.9%2026 economic growth at 1.8% The

Fundamental Overview We continue to see a pullback in the US Dollar as the market kind of reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This was signalled by the lack of US Dollar strength after lots of

Hesse CPI +2.0% vs +1.8% y/y priorBrandenburg CPI +1.9% vs +1.8% y/y priorSaxony CPI +2.9% vs +2.8% y/y priorNorth Rhine Westphalia CPI +1.9% vs +2.0% y/y priorBaden Wuerttemberg CPI +2.2% vs +2.1% y/y prior At the balance, the figures aren’t as high as estimated. This points to the national reading later coming in around 2.1%,

This is with regards to the Japanese Association of Metal, Machinery, and Manufacturing Workers (JAM) trade union, which mainly comprises of small and medium-sized manufacturing firms across Japan. It is being reported that they will be demanding a base salary hike of ¥15,000 or more in the upcoming spring wage negotiations. For some context, that

M3 Money Supply Y/Y 3.4% vs. 3.4% expected and 3.2% prior.Loans to Households Y/Y 0.8% vs. 0.8% expected and 0.7% prior.Loans to Companies Y/Y 1.2% vs. 1.1% prior. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Japan extraordinary parliamentary session to discuss plans for an extra budget (and more)JP Morgan says Bank of Japan will hike to 1.5% (but not soon)South Korea will extend its fuel tax cuts by another 2 monthsBank of Korea cut benchmark interest rates for a second straight meeting – a surprise moveThe US has reduced its

Fundamental Overview We continue to see a pullback in the US Dollar as the market kind of reached the peak in the repricing of interest rates expectations and it will need stronger reasons to price out the remaining rate cuts for 2025. This was signalled by the lack of US Dollar strength after lots of

Trump has indicated a range of tariffs around 10-20% for the rest of the worldThe fact that you put out a range means that you are open to discussionEurope is erring towards a “cheque book strategy”We could offer to buy certain things from the US and signal that we are prepared to discuss to see

The major indices move lower on the day ahead of the Thanksgiving day holiday tomorrow. The markets will reopen on Friday. The mega caps and technology stocks moved lower with Dell leading the way after disappointing guidance for the Q4: A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average -138.25 points or -0.31% and

The official excuse is that the meeting is moved due to the Gulf Summit taking place in Kuwait on 1 December. But reading between the lines, perhaps some members need more convincing in reaching a common ground to decide what to do next on policy. As things stand, the planned oil output hike will be

Check your diaries and make sure you’re free! It’s nearly time for iFX EXPO Dubai 2025, as the renowned online trading event returns to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region once again – bigger, busier, and better than ever before. Set to be one of the largest and most prominent B2B and B2C

Trump says he spoke with Mexico’s Sheinbaum: agreed to stop migration through Mexico into the USeffectively closing the US southern border If so this will mean Turmp’s threats if big tariffs on Mexico won’t go ahead. *** Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo is president of Mexico *** The threat of tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China sent

A note from MUFG on the stronger yen this week. says JPY has risen due to safe-haven demand and speculation that the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates at its December (18 – 19) meeting MUFG with a reason to be cautious: “Tariffs on Japan imports to the US remain a risk and higher

Germany remains a real buzzkill for the ECB at the moment. Europe’s largest economy is putting a real drag on the growth outlook and on the inflation front, price pressures are also looking fairly sticky. And that should once again be the case this month as well. In terms of headline annual inflation, it did

An extraordinary parliamentary session will begin in Japan today, November 28. Will run to December 21. The special Diet session is to allow for deliberation on a supplementary budget needed to fund new inflation-relief measures proposed by the government of Japanese Prime Mister Shigeru Ishiba. Government plans include: to provide cash handouts — likely 30,000

Today we might have a pretty choppy day in the markets given that the US is on holiday for Thanksgiving. The only highlights will be the Spanish and German inflation readings. They will likely have an impact on the EUR ahead of tomorrow’s Eurozone Flash CPI. The market’s pricing for the ECB remains pretty aggressive

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

South Korea’s finance ministry said that it will extend the tax cut on fuel for two more months Out to February 2025 South Korea has implemented a series of fuel tax cuts since 2021 to alleviate the financial burden on consumers amid fluctuating global oil prices and inflationary pressures. Extensions to the cuts have been

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

From New Zealand are business confidence and activity indicators, from the ANZ Business Outlook Survey. This is a monthly assessment conducted by ANZ Bank New Zealand. It gauges the sentiments and expectations of businesses across various sectors in New Zealand. It serves as a leading economic indicator, offering insights into business confidence, anticipated activity levels,

Eurostoxx +0.6%Germany DAX +0.7%France CAC 40 +0.5%UK FTSE +0.2%Spain IBEX +0.2%Italy FTSE MIB +0.4% After two days of struggles, European stocks are looking to bounce back today in what has been a back and forth last two weeks. And for some indices, it has been the story for the month of November itself. That said,

US advice to travelers to mainland China changed from Level 3, “reconsider travel”, to Level 2, “exercise increased caution”. The the advisory still warned that US citizens in China “may be subjected to interrogations and detention without fair and transparent treatment under the law”. The trimming of the warning level comes as: China has released

Stats NZ released its monthly ‘Employment Indicators’ data, for October 2024: there are over 35,500 fewer jobs now in NZ than there were a year agoover 30,000 jobs gone in the 15-29 age bracketnumber of filled jobs for October 2024 fell by over 2,000 (0.1%) to 2.36 millionSeptember was revised down to a 0.1% fallin

The meeting was supposed to take place on 1 December. It seems that it will still be held online though. The delay here raises further debate on whether the bloc is going to kick the can down the road on its planned output hike – which is due to start in January. This article was

The EUR/USD began the U.S. session with a break above the 200-hour moving average at 1.05203, signaling bullish momentum. The rally pushed the price through the 38.2% retracement level at 1.05628, but it quickly pulled back, dipping below yesterday’s high of 1.0544. However, the decline found support above the 200-hour moving average, allowing the pair

Bank of Korea cut benchmark interest rates for a second straight meeting in a surprise move: Bank of Korea unexpectedly cuts its base rate by 25bpfirst time since 2009 the central bank cut interest rates for two consecutive meetingsBoK also lowered its forecasts for economic growth and inflation South Korean won, bond yields weakened. KOSPI

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q4 rose to 2.7%. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 2.7 percent on November 27, up from 2.6 percent on November 19. After this morning’s personal income and outlays release from

JPMorgan analysts expect the BOJ will raise rates in April and October 2025. Bringing the policy rate to 1.0% by the end of 2025. BOJ will likely raise rates twicee to 1.5% in 2026 JPMorgan cites: In a global context, the BOJ is set to continue marching to the beat of its own drum, pointing

I posted on the machinations earlier: Plan to overhaul the RBA including splitting the board in two could be back on the agenda The Australian Labor party government has secured the support of minority party Greens to help pass the legislation. The Treasury Laws Amendment (Reserve Bank Reforms) Bill 2023 was one of around 30

The US is expected to announce another set of measures on Monday designed to further restrain China’s ability to develop advanced artificial intelligence The reports cite “people familiar with the matter”could include sanctioning dozens of Chinese companies that produce equipment for making semiconductorsalso placing restrictions on a handful of chip manufacturing plants, some of which

Post for the futures traders out there! The CME Group has adjusted trading hours for various products during the Thanksgiving holiday period in 2024. Below is a summary of the schedule for Equity Products, Cryptocurrency, Interest Rate Products, and NYMEX & COMEX Products: Equity Products: Wednesday, November 27, 2024: Regular trading hours. Thursday, November 28,

The CBI survey shows UK services sector sentiment falling at its fastest pace in two years, driven partly by tax increases in Finance Minister Rachel Reeves’ October 30 budget, according to the Confederation of British Industry (CBI). The decline is most severe in consumer services, where a £25 billion payroll tax hike heavily impacts large

Few people think Trump will actually follow through with 25% across-the-board tariffs on Canada and Mexico, at least not for any length of time. But with Trump you need to prepare for anything and that’s what Deutsche Bank has done today with forecast scenarios that illustrate where US inflation will lad with tariffs. This chart

A down day for the major indices ahead of the Thanksgiving day holidayRBNZ Asst Gov Silk: Manufacturing, retail, construction will start to see recovery in 2025Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q4 rises to 2.7% from 2.6% on November 19Crude oil futures settles at $68.72Assuming Trump actually puts the tariffs on Canada and MexicoBitcoin races

USD/JPY has risen in morning Asia trade. News and data flow from Japan has been sparse. We did have this from the US: Mexico has agreed to stop migration into the US (closes southern border) And this: US expected to announce further AI chip sanctions against China on Monday Whether those are smoking gun catalysts

ECB board member Isabel Schnabel spoke on Wednesday, not so dovishly: mostly points to a 25 bps rate cut more than anything else as she dismissed the likelihood of moving faster by saying she would prefer something more “gradual” More here too: clearly pushing back against the aggressive rate cuts expectations HSBC’s take is similar,

Crude oil futures is settling at $68.72. That’s down five cents or -0.07%. The high price today reached $69.33. The low price was at $68.18. Technically, the high price today extended briefly above its 200 hour moving average at $69.19. Getting above that moving average and then the higher 100 hour moving average at $69.73

Comments from RBNZ Asst Governor Silk Residential investment, manufacturing, retail trade, construction in New Zealand will start to see more recovery in early 2025.Geopolitical risks pose uncertainty, can have an impact on inflation and growth.Restrictive policy giving confidence nondomestic inflation numbers allowing us to start to accelerate easing cycle Comments from RBNZ chief economist Conway:

German foreign intelligence service says: Kremlin sees Germany as an adversarySays Germany is in direct confrontation with MoscowRussia has started to use “kinetic” measures against the West including acts of sabotage against infrastructureExpects further escalation of the situation Earlier today, it was reported that Trump would pick Keith Kellogg as the envoy to end the

The USD/CAD surged sharply higher on Tuesday following news of a proposed 25% tariff on all Canadian goods by former President Trump, contingent on the continued “stream of illegal immigrants” at the border. Adam addressed the issue here: “Tariff man loses his fastball“. The spike higher propelled the pair to its highest level since April

The US dollar is soft today and I think we’re getting an idea why at the moment. It’s struggling into the London fix, which highlights some flows ahead of month end. The US is on holiday tomorrow (and de facto on Friday) so flows are being jammed through today. This article was written by Adam

Dollar selling is the theme in the FX market today, and with that, the major currency pairs versus the US dollar are breaking through some technical levels and targeting others. EURUSD: The EURUSD is looking toward the 38.2% retracement at 1.05628. Get above that and it opens the door for further upside momentum. USDJPY: The

USD/JPY is down a whopping 260 pips today following a 140-pip decline yesterday. The pair is trading at 150.46 fr om a high of 156.76 mid-month. That’s a real turn and it’s particularly dramatic today as the US dollar is dogged by month-end flows. It’s a case of “up the escalator, down the elevator” that’s

Goldman Sachs estimates China’s 2024 LNG imports to revert back to previous record highChief Economist & European Central Bank Executive Board member Lane speaking WednesdayANZ forecast 25bp RBNZ rate cuts in February, April, and May 2025Goldman Sachs analyst says Asia LNG prices could jump to above $20/mmbtuRBNZ Gov Orr says tariffs would put up pressure

Prior was 4.215%Bid to cover at 2.71 vs 2.74 prior The bond market isn’t having a problem digesting some serious supply this week ahead of Thanksgiving. In the aftermath of the sale, long-dated yields are at the lows of the day with 10s down 5.2 bps to 4.25%. There is some follow-through in USD/JPY as

This has been rumored for weeks and yesterday it was reported that it was coming imminently. Gold and oil have sold off substantially on it already. The vote to approve it in the Israeli cabinet was 10-1. Sell the rumor, buy the fact? Biden also says there will be a fresh push for a ceasefire

The price of Bitcoin is trading up around $3800 today at $95,750. The high for the day has reached $96,435. The move higher took out the 100 and 200-hour MAs at $95,632 and $95,932 respectively. However, there is some apprehension on the break. Buyers and sellers are battling above and below the MAs awaiting the

Trust Wallet, a leading self-custody Web3 wallet trusted by over 140 million users, has announced the third project under Trust Wallet Launchpool, featuring the reward token $WOD. $WOD is the native token of World of Dypians, a MMORPG available on Epic Games, set in a connected virtual world, featuring advanced AI, stunning graphics, and immersive

The NZD/USD climbed higher despite a 50 basis point rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, driven by a clear “buy the fact” reaction from traders. This rally was supported by technical factors, with the pair breaking above its 200-hour moving average at 0.5863. This level had previously capped gains on Monday and

US equity close: Big bids arrive late With all the focus on Bessent, are we underestimating Kevin Warsh?Biden touts Israel-Lebanon ceasefireCould Trump lean on a weaker dollar as is main policy lever?Are we in a bubble? Where 5 measures of market sentiment standA look at the Fed minutes by separating references to groups of “participants”.FOMC

Prior +1.7%Market index 208.0 vs 195.6 priorPurchase index 152.9 vs 136.0 priorRefinance index 501.7 vs 514.9 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.86% vs 6.90% prior Mortgage applications jumped in the past week, owing to a surge in purchase activity. That more than offset a decline in refinancing activity, with the average rate continuing to hold higher still.

Prior -0.2%Advance retail inventories +0.1%Prior +0.8%; revised to +0.6%Retail inventories ex-autos +0.1%Prior +0.2%; revised to +0.1% Wholesale inventories are estimated to be higher in October, up slightly to $905.1 billion, while retail inventories are also seen marginally higher on the month up to $824.7 billion. Here is the breakdown by the month: This article was

Headlines: USD/JPY falls to three-week lows as dollar slips to start the sessionEURUSD Technical Analysis – The pair looks to be bottoming outPotential for dollar selling this month end – DeutscheGold bounce today keeps buyers interested going into month-endWhat is the distribution of forecasts for the US PCE?ECB’s Schnabel: Easing too much would use up

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a turbulent day for the tech sector, particularly within semiconductors. Nvidia (NVDA) has taken a significant hit, dropping 2.07%, marking a stark contrast to the generally resilient performance elsewhere. Meanwhile, the utilities and consumer defensive sectors are showing relative strength, offering a safe haven for cautious investors. 📉

European equities bounced from the lows of the day but still finished in the red. Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -0.2%German DAX -0.2%France CAC -0.7%UK FTSE 100 -0.2%Spain IBEX -0.3%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.3% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

This is weird. I posted the RBNZ rate cut decision, it was published on time and kudos to all involved. I then tried to access the statement and meeting record on the Bank’s website and, well, that wasn’t smooth at all. I could access the site but the statement and minutes were there from the

Prior -7.7 That’s the lowest reading since January and it reaffirms the worsening sentiment surrounding the Swiss economy, and the euro area in general, heading into next year. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

South Korea’s National Pension Service (NPS) has been selling dollars in the onshore foreign exchange market in recent weeks, helping limit losses in the won as the dollar strengthens. Reuters citing according to two sources familiar with the matter. As the world’s third-largest public pension fund, with assets exceeding $810 billion, the NPS has significant

The RBNZ cut the OCR by 50bps to 4.25% today: RBNZ Gov Orr says tariffs would put up pressure on price levels globallyRBNZ Gov says it’s a misunderstanding that RBNZ projections show slower pace of rate cutsRBNZ Monetary Policy Statement Media Conference – live linkWhat is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand even doing? This

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar remains the strongest currency but overall, we haven’t got much action in the past couple of weeks due to the lack of key catalysts and the market’s pricing remaining largely unchanged around roughly three rate cuts by the end of 2025 despite a series of strong US data. This might

Prior month +7.4% Details Pending home sales 2.0% versus -2.0% expectedHome sales index 77.4 versus 75.8 last monthSales up 5.4% year on year. Highest level since March. Regionally: Northeast 4.7% MoM and +7.2% YoYWest 0.2% MoM 16.8% YoYMidwest 4.0% MoM and 1.8% YoYSouth 0.9% MoM and 2.5% YoY There is more supply which could be

ANZ forecast 25bp RBNZ rate cuts in February, April, and May 2025. In summary from the bank’s analysis of today’s RBNZ decision The RBNZ cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) 50bp to 4.25% today in what the Record of Meeting notes was a consensus decision. The RBNZ’s updated forecast OCR track has about -40bp implied

Aventus, a leader in enterprise blockchain technology and parachain on Polkadot, today announces the launch of its Blockchain Factory: a platform designed to help businesses deploy bespoke blockchain networks with advanced features and seamless integration into existing systems. The Blockchain Factory aims to make blockchain adoption more accessible, offering a streamlined, flexible solution for organisations

Priorr Week initial jobless claims 213K revised to 215KInitial jobless claims 213K vs 216K estimate 4-week MA 217K vs 218.25K last week Continuing Claims 1.907M vs 1.908M estimate. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021 when it was 1,974,000Prior Continuing Claims 1.898M vs 1.908M previously reported4-week MA of continuing claims

The AUD/USD moved higher in response to a weaker USD, but sellers stepped in near the falling 100-hour moving average, pushing the price back down. The decline found support at the high of a key swing area, where buyers leaned in and drove the pair back toward the now-converged 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, both

A stock split is a corporate action where a company issues additional shares to shareholders, increasing the total number of shares while reducing the share price proportionally. This process does not alter the company’s market capitalization but can affect investor perception and participation. Hearing Stock Splits for the first time? Choose investment education to learn

Xi has been purging various institutions, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is not immune. I saw this earlier: Liu Liange, former Party chief and chairman of Bank of China, was sentenced to death with a two-year reprieve in a first-instance trial on Tuesday for accepting large sums in bribes. (Global Times) This article was written

China January- October industrial profits -4.3% y/y the January – September result was -3.5% October month industrial profits -10% y/y Data comes from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). *** Industrial profit numbers cover firms with annual revenues of at least 20 million yuan ($2.76 million) from their main operations This article was written by

Prior was +2.7%Core m/m +0.3% vs +0.3% expUnrounded core PCE was +0.274% m/mCore PCE +2.8% y/y vs +2.8% expectedHeadline inflation PCE +2.3% y/y vs +2.3% expected (Prior +2.1%)Deflator +0.2% m/m vs +0.2% expected Unrounded +0.238% m/m Consumer spending and income for October: Personal income +0.6% vs +0.4% expected. Prior month +0.2%Personal spending +0.4% vs +0.3%

On the month itself, gold is still down around 3.5% and poised for its first monthly loss since June. And if this holds, it would be the biggest monthly loss for the precious metal this year. That says a lot about how bullish sentiment has been for gold during the last twelve to fourteen months,

As Bitcoin flirts with the $100K milestone, the crypto market is gearing up for the next cycle. Historically, this surge in BTC’s value leads to altcoins pumping, followed by liquidity flowing into the memecoin sector. With this momentum, memecoins offering compelling narratives and valuable utilities become the focal point for investors. Pepeto, the God of

Advance Q3 reading was +2.8% annualizedFinal Q2 reading was +3.0% annualized Details: Consumer spending +3.5% vs +3.7% advance Consumer spending on durables +8.1%GDP final sales +3.0% vs +3.0% advanceGDP deflator +1.9% vs +1.8% advanceCore PCE +2.1% vs +2.2% advance Business investment (nonresidential fixed investment) +% vs +3.3% advancePCE services inflation excluding energy and housing +2.6%

The major stock indices are mixed with the NASDAQ and S&P lower. The small-cap Russell 2000 and Dow industrial average are trading higher. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow industrial average was 40.07 points or 0.09%. S&P index -22.79 points or -0.38%NASDAQ index -172 points or -0.90%Russell 2000+ 4.47 points or +0.18% the

The pair looks to be on an inevitable push lower towards testing its 200-day moving average again, with the key level seen at 151.97 currently. The slight drop at the start of the month met a stall there before the rebound after the US election result. And now we’re circling back to that again. Besides

We can gradually move toward neutral if incoming data continues to confirm our baselineWe may not be so far from the neutral rateMarkets seem to assume that we will need to move into accommodative territoryBut I don’t think such a step would be appropriate based on current conditionsHas a strong preference for a gradual approachThe

German DAX futures flatFrench CAC 40 futures -0.3%UK FTSE futures flat This mirrors the mood in US futures, with S&P 500 futures keeping flattish at the moment. That despite a late bid overnight helped to see Wall Street finish with modest gains. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

There are some major geopolitical considerations around how the war in Ukraine ends. Trump will reportedly pick Keith Kellogg as envoy to end the war, according to a Reuters report. Here’s a recent article where he lays out how he would end it. Continue arming Ukraine while pursuing formal ceasefire negotiations, with aid conditional on

The pound is slowly chewing through last week’s losses. It’s trading at a session high, up 79 pips to 1.2646 in the second day of gains. It comes after a tough three day stretch late last week that sent it to the lowest since May. This week, the US dollar has been softening on the

Prior -$108.7 billion The international trade deficit was lower in October as exports were seen down 3.2% to $168.7 billion while imports were down 5.4% to $267.8 billion compared to the month before. Here’s the breakdown: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil inventories -1844 K vs -605K expGasoline inventories +3314K vs -46K expDistillates inventories +416K vs -103K expRefinery utilization +0.3% versus expectations of +0.4% expProduction 13.49mbpd from 13.2mbpd Private oil inventory data from late yesterday: Crude -5939KGasoline +1814KDistillates +2543K WTI crude oil was trading 10-cents higher to $68.87 before the data. Note that the OPEC

Australian Construction Work Done in Q3 2024, much better than expected at +1.6% q/q 0.3% expected, prior was 0.1% This is an encouraging result. AUD/USD little changed, its around 0.6475 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

As the North America session begins the USD is lower, US yields are lower and the broader indices are lower (although the Dow is trading above and below unchanged). Crude oil is marginally higher after an up and down day on Tuesday. Gold is higher after rebounding by 0.31% yesterday a day after plunging 3.35%

Decision and summary of statement and minutes is here: Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts cash rate by 50bp, as expected NZD/USD has jumped: That’s a big surge for the kiwi$ on a decision that was widely expected. I don’t see the statement and minutes as hawkish but maybe some out there do. This article

Goldman Sachs analyst says Asia LNG prices could jump to above $20 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) if European gas supply tightens this winter. Goldman Sachs analyst says: “That’s the near term dynamic, given this vulnerability of Europe, the lack of spare capacity, the loss of the residual Russian volumes currently going through Ukraine,

S&P 500 futures are fractionally lower as we count down to the open. With the US holiday tomorrow and month end looming, flows are likely to overwhelm everything else today. That’s also what could have the US dollar on the backfoot today. But if you look at the field of play, it’s a good one

Eyes are on US inflation with the market pricing in a 65% chance of a cut at the December FOMC. That ticked up about 8 points yesterday with the FOMC minutes highlighting a strong consensus around gradual rate cuts. The main number to watch is core PCE, which is forecast to rise 0.3% m/m and

Prior month -0.7% (revised to -0.4%)Durable goods orders MoM 0.2% vs 0.5% expectedEx transportation MoM 0.1% vs 0.2% expectedPrior month ex transportation 0.5% (revised to 0.4%)Non-Defense cap ex air MoM -0.2% vs 0.1% expectedPrior month non-defence cap ex air 0.7% (revised to 0.3Durable goods ex defense MoM 0.4% vs -1.1% prior This isn’t a market

The pair is down nearly 1% on the day to 151.50 levels, with price now at its lowest levels since 6 November. What is more notable though is that sellers are looking to push for a break below the 200-day moving average (blue line). The key level is seen at 151.97 and that will be

As the global online trading landscape constantly evolves, with new trends emerging all the time, brokerages are having to rise to the challenge by delivering the best products and services to adapt to shifting trader preferences. One particular area that has experienced a notable surge in popularity is copy trading, capturing the excitement of retail

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Heads up, the FOMC Minutes are due at the top of the hour. The next meeting is on December 18 and the market is pricing in a 58% chance of a cut with the remainder at ‘no change’. I expect indications to point to a ‘meeting-by-meeting’ approach and that the deciding factor in the next

Why it’s important? The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on

Does anyone seriously think he’s going to put those tariffs on 6 million barrels per day of oil that enters the US? I take this more of a sign that this isn’t a real threat but the oil market has reversed some losses. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar remains the strongest currency but overall, we haven’t got much action in the past couple of weeks due to the lack of key catalysts and the market’s pricing remaining largely unchanged around roughly three rate cuts by the end of 2025 despite a series of strong US data. This might

The US treasury auctioned off $70 billion of five year notes at a high yield of 4.197%. Details of the auction: High yield 4.197%Tail -0.2 basis points versus six-month average of 0.7 basis pointsBid to cover 2.43X vs six-month average of 2.37X Directs 24.58% versus six-month average of 16.0%Indirects 64.12% versus six-month average of 69.7%Dealers

Despite a strong performance this year, the stock market remains exposed to several potential challenges, Deutsche Bank noted in a report on Tuesday. While markets have experienced some volatility, they have rebounded quickly after the factors causing sell-offs eased. “This shows that any of these risks could trigger another downturn, especially if they persist or

The poll was conducted after the US election in the period of 15 November to 26 November. The findings show that the median forecast is for the S&P 500 to end 2025 at 6,500 – which is roughly 8% up from yesterday’s close. The forecast here is sharply higher compared to the previous forecast in

Stats NZ have released a preview od GDP revisions to be published on December 19. Westpac summary: The key points are as follows (note that slight further revisions to the numbers below are possible before their formal release): • Real GDP growth (using the production-based measure) is likely to be revised up by 0.8ppts to

In Europe, we’ll only have to deal with a couple of light releases. The most notable is the German GfK consumer sentiment but even that isn’t really a market mover by any form. The main events today are all in US trading as we will be getting a flurry of economic data before the Thanksgiving

The tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico announced by Trump on Monday could lead to a nearly 1% increase in the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, according to Goldman Sachs. Goldman’s chief economist, Jan Hatzius, in a note to clients: “Using our rule of thumb that every 1 [percentage point] increase in the

There was a big rally in bonds on Monday and they’ve held up well today despite a moderate retracement. Much of the talk on Monday was about Scott Bessent getting the nomination for Treasury Secretary but what might have driven a big part of the move was a detail in many of the stories reporting

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD, layered at the 1.0415, 1.0475, and 1.0500 levels. Similar to yesterday, the expiries in particular the ones at 1.0475 and 1.0500 should limit price movements in the session ahead. That especially the latter given

Eurostoxx -0.3%Germany DAX -0.1%France CAC 40 -0.7%UK FTSE flatSpain IBEX -0.3%Italy FTSE MIB -0.4% It’s still early in the day but the mood music is continuing from yesterday for now. The CAC 40 is starting to look towards its August lows now, so that is one to watch out for. Elsewhere, S&P 500 futures are

Fundamental Overview Gold had a bad start of the week after the nomination of Scott Bessent for Treasury secretary over the weekend. Bessent is seen as a fiscal hawk, and the market views him as a great pick for the job. One of the main reasons why the magnitude of the correlation between gold and

Prior 94; revised to 93 French consumer confidence slumped to its lowest level since June as worries about employment conditions are starting to grow again. The index for unemployment prospects rose to 42, up from 33 previously, and is the highest since May 2021. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

📈 Is Visa Stock (V) Still a Buy After a 25% Rally? Visa Inc. (V) has experienced a remarkable 25% rise since its summer 2024 earnings. This rally has solidified its status as a dominant player in the payments industry, but the key question remains: Is Visa a buy, hold, or sell at these levels?

Prior -18.3; revised to -18.4 That’s the weakest reading since May and it reaffirms the gloomier outlook surrounding the German economy as we look towards next year. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

I see only limited room for further rate cuts.The impact of past ECB tightening is fading visibly.I need to see services inflation come down.I don’t see a significant risk of inflation undershoot.Inflation journey to 2% may still be bumpy in 2025.The ECB may noy be so far from neutral rates.ù Schnabel is a known hawk

RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement Media Conference Begins at2pm New Zealand time 0200 GMT9100 US Eastern time ie Now! Earlier: Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts cash rate by 50bp, as expectedNew Zealand dollar has surged higher after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand 50bp rate cutWhat is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand even doing?

Bank of England Lombardellii says: US trade tariffs would pose risk to economic growthToo early to quantify effects of proposed tariffsWould discuss trade developments in upcoming meetings Comments reported in the Financial Times (gated) and conveyed via Reuters headlines. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It was a record close in the S&P 500, at 6021. Bank of America put out a target for next year of 6666 today, though the track record of those kinds of targets is sketchy at best. The index was nearly flat midway thorough trading but jumped late. Closing changes: S&P 500: +0.6%Nasdaq Comp: +0.6%DJIA:

This guy is going to have a torrid time. Trump’s trade rep in his first admin, Lighthizer, was embroiled in negotiations with China over trade. Greer will be doing the same. We wish him well. I haven’t got a pic of Greer yet, this recent snap of a still-recovering Lighthizer will have to do. This

Snippet from Deutsche Bank, in brief: base case for 2025 is stronger US growth and inflationhigher FOMC terminal rate than previously expectedopposite applies to Europe On the US DB: assumes modest US tax cutsstrong deregulation effortsmore supportive financial conditionsassume a 10% increase in the tariff rate on imports from China in H1 (ratcheting up a

NZD/USD is giving back some of its earlier jump, its around 0.5852 now. From his circa 0.5880. RBNZ Governor Orr with more: Neutral rate is somewhere 2.5 to 3.5%expect to be around neutral by the end of 2025Confident domestic inflation pressures will continue to ease.Confident economic growth will pick up in 2025.Expect to be around

Today we will have another empty European session in terms of data releases. In the American session, we get lots of US data releases as Thursday’s data was moved up to today due to the US holidays. Most of the data will be ignored by the market and the focus will be on the US

Reserve Bank of New Zealand In summary from the statement: The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has reduced the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 4.25%. Inflation: Annual inflation has decreased and is near the 1–3% target midpoint. Inflation expectations and core inflation are also aligning with this midpoint. Further OCR reductions are

Comes in lower than expected at 2.1% expected 2.3%, prior 2.1% The core reading, trimmed mean, has come in at 3.5% y/y … which is ugly up from the prior of 3.2% — Preview of, and background to, this data point is here: Australian CPI due at the bottom of the hour – what to

Sentiment certainly feels elevated but are there major red flags? Or still time to ride the equity wave? Price action has been constructive as dips are bought, even with crypto taking a break. So where do we stand? Let’s look at a few indicators. The fear and greed index: That’s not bad at all, barely

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Via Twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude -0.6mn barrelsDistillates +0.1 mn bblsGasoline -0.05mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API): It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports are quite

Earlier from Goldman Sachs: Asia LNG prices could jump to above $20/MMBTU if European gas supply tightens this winter. More now: China’s 2024 LNG imports are estimated to revert back to the previous record high of just over 80 million tonnes per year.Russia to China gas pipeline is expected to be fully utilized next year,

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Previews of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand are here: Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet Wednesday, November 27, 2024 – previewReserve Bank of New Zealand rate cut expected on Wednesday 27 November – previewReserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Shadow Board recommend a 50bp cash rate cut this weekANZ forceast a 50bp interest cut

Standard Chartered on Bitcoin, forecasts: $125,000 by the end of this year$200,000 by end-2025 Expects a dip below $88,700 in the current retracement phase. says to buy between $85,000 and $88,700 Stan Chart cite: large increase in bitcoin buying from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Microstrategy since the US electionsays average of buys is $88,700 This

Snippet preview via Commonwealth Bank of Australia: We anticipate headline CPI inflation remained at 2.1%/yr in October. While a soft monthly outcome a year ago makes it hard for the annual rate to remain low, we expect a further fall in electricity prices to weigh on inflation. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) noted households

1800 GMT/1300 US Eastern time: Dinner introductory remarks by ECB board member Philip Lane at Conference on “Macroeconomic modelling frontiers for research and policy” organised by the ECB in Frankfurt *** Philip Lane is serving as the Chief Economist and a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank (ECB) since June 2019.

Here is an interesting passage from a letter from Scott Bessent via his hedge fund in January of this year: Another differentiated view that we have is that Trump will pursue a weak dollar policy rather than implementing tariffs. Tariffs are inflationary and would strengthen the dollar–hardly a good starting point for a US industrial

Most focus will be on the inflation number: Australian CPI due at the bottom of the hour – what to expect and why its not official But, construction data also due. Via Commonwealth Bank of Australia, analysts there expect +0.7% q/q: Construction work done includes building work (residential and non – residential) and engineering work.

The Israeli cabinet approves cease-fire deal with Lebanon. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Gov Orr: misunderstanding that RBNZ projections show slower pace of rate cutsprojections are consistent with 50bp cut in February depending on economyexpect more volatility in prices because of geopoliticsdid not discuss cutting by 75bp (amends that to say very little discussion of 75 or 25)policy committee can meet at any time if needed You can

All three major indices are now positive on the day. The gains are led by the S&P index which is up 0.41%. The NASDAQ index is up 0.39%. The Dow industrial average which was down by as much as -309.91 points is now back in positive territory with a gain of 59.23 points or 0.13%.

BNZ preview the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting on November 27, saying that arguments for a 25, 50, or 75bp all have merits. Analysts at BNZ, though, say that a 50-point cut this meeting is their central view. Citing: economic spare capacity continues to grow and will do so for some time inflation will

Highlights from the Nov 6-7 FOMC decision: 🔹 ON FUTURE POLICY PATH: “Participants anticipated that if the data came in about as expected, with inflation continuing to move down sustainably to 2 percent and the economy remaining near maximum employment, it would likely be appropriate to move gradually toward a more neutral stance of policy

At 1 PM ET, the US treasury will auction $70 billion 5-year Treasury note auction. The primary demand for 5-year notes has been weaker this year, with 70% of auctions tailing by an average of 1.0 bp. According to BMO, the auction is expected to clear at the highest yield in five months (~4.20%), which

Earlier on this is here: Bank of England Lombardelli says too early to quantify effects of proposed tariffs Speaking in an interview with the Financial Times. The FT is gated, but Bloomberg have a further rundown. In brief: Lombardelli said she needs to see more evidence of cooling price pressures before she backs another interest

Group: “Some” “Some participants remarked that although increases in housing services prices remained somewhat elevated, they continued to expect that these increases would slow.””Some participants observed that, with supply and demand in the labor market being roughly in balance and in light of recent productivity gains, wage increases were unlikely to be a source of

WTI crude oil is at the lows of the day, down $0.80 to $68.12 after rising as high as $70.30 early in US trading. The spike to the highs of the day came on a Reuters report saying that OPEC+ nations are discussing a further delay to a planned output return that was slated for

Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 -0.5%German DAX -0.6%France CAC -0.8%UK FTSE 100 -0.4%Spain IBEX -0.8%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.6% Canada, Mexico and China were threatened with tariffs today, how long until Europe is threatened with the same? This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Mexican finance minister is on the wires saying that Tariffs are a tax that would hurt both the US and MexicoVows that they will find a solution Looking at the daily chart, the USDMXN is trading at 20.766. That is still just short of the high price from November 6 at 20.80915. A move

Eurostoxx -0.7%Germany DAX -0.5%France CAC 40 -0.8%UK FTSE -0.3%Spain IBEX -0.8%Italy FTSE MIB -0.9% This more than erases the gains from yesterday and reaffirms the sentiment from right after the US election. Trump hasn’t singled out Europe yet but after already taking aim at Mexico and Canada, it’s only a matter of time it would

Prior month -14Composite index -14 versus -10 estimatexx. Services index 9 vs 3 last monthManufacturing shipments -12 vs -8 last month Other details: Employment -10 vs -17 last month. Better but still negative. Wages 17 vs 16 last month. Marginally higher. Prices paid 2.48 vs 2.70 last month. Lower.Prices received 2.07 vs 1.71 last month.

BofA highlights four key policy dimensions of the incoming US administration that could suppress gold demand in the near term by driving higher rates and a stronger USD. However, these bearish factors do not derail BofA’s longer-term bullish outlook for gold, with a price target of $3,000/oz by end of 2025. Key Points: Near-Term Bearish

Ishiba says that the government is requesting the cooperation from businesses to achieve a “large” wage growth in the spring wage negotiations. This is to follow up from last year’s success and to break the deflationary cycle/mindset in Japan. It will also help the BOJ out a little in trying to convince markets of further

The USD moved higher vs the EUR, JPY, GBP and the CAD after Pres. elect Trump said he would impose tariffs on 25% vs Canada and Mexico goods, and a 10% blanket tariff on all China goods. The dollars gains on the comments were short lived vs the EUR, GBP and JPY, but maintained (mostly)

The Financial Times is gated, but in brief the piece says that Russia will seek to weaken support for Ukraine in preparing to launch a series of cyber attacks on Britain and other Nato members. The BBC has a non gated report here if you are after more. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

There is an impressive turn unfolding in US equities and crypto. The S&P 500 is now up 22 points to a session high in a 0.4% gain. The index had fallen to nearly flat before rebounding strongly in the past hour. Similarly, bitcoin is now up 0.8% to $94,400 after falling as low as $91,400.

Axios reports that the AI czar will be charged with focusing both public and private resources to keep America in the AI forefront. The federal government has a tremendous need for AI technology, and the new czar would likely work with agency chief AI officers (which were established in President Biden’s AI executive order, and

More geopolitical: US is continuing to supply security assistance to bolster Ukraine defenses in the Eastthe involvement of North Korean troops in Ukraine conflict was a matter of grave concernUS is finalizing getting out the door the $50 billion that has been secured on the basis of frozen Russian sovereign assets.UKraine has money, munitions, and

Mendes was no doubt asked about tariffs but this is a standard line from central bankers relating to any policies. Separately, the StatsCan wholesale sales flash estimate for October is out and it was up a decent 0.5%. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 0.738mSales -17.3% vs +4.1% prior — worst since 2013 This is a terrible number and underscores the pain that higher rates are going to cause in everything housing-related, which is a big chunk of the economy. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Concerned about China’s non-market policies and practices that are leading to harmful overcapacity and market distortionsCall on China to refrain from adopting export control measures, particularly on critical minerals that could lead to significant supply disruptions This is the usual chorus. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is set to announce its interest rate decision in the upcoming trading session, with expectations leaning toward a 50 basis point rate cut, lowering the benchmark rate from 4.75% to 4.25%. The NZD/USD pair has been in a steady downtrend since late September, driven by expectations of further

Geopolitics: CBS is confirming an earlier report that US present Biden is expected to say that the US and France have secured a cease-fire deal between Israel and Lebanon. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Tariff threats don’t hit like they used to. Trump roiled markets early in Asian trading with a threat of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Bizarrely, he tied both tariffs to border security. Now I understand the sentiment on Mexico, which is something he’s been campaigning on forever but there’s not exactly a stream of

Prior was 108.7 (revised to 109.6)Present Situation Index 140.9 vs. 138.0 priorExpectations Index 92.3 vs 89.1 prior12-month inflation expectations declined from 5.3% last month to 4.9% “Consumer confidence continued to improve in November and reached the top of the range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The

Inflation expected to hit ECB’s target in 2025.Eurozone economy will grow slowly and recover gradually.Salary and services inflation remain persistent, maintain risk of inflation moderating more slowly than expected.If fresh statistics and forecast support current inflation and growth view, ECB should continue to cut rates.Downward direction of rates is clear and the pace depends on

Comments from the Chinese Ambassador to Australia: US policy on trade with China and other countries will have impact Expect China and US to engage with each other to talk about each other’s policies on how to manage relationship The last time Trump ramped up tensions with China China responded by kicking Australia with punitive

The price of Bitcoin surged sharply following President-elect Trump’s victory, climbing from $66,798 on November 4 to $99,800 by Friday. However, over the weekend, the price corrected lower, and this downward momentum continued into Monday and today. The decline has pushed Bitcoin below its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, currently at $97,073 and $95,676, respectively.

It’s been a slow start to the week for economic data but picks up at the top of the hour with a trio of releases: Consumer confidenceNew home sales The Richmond Fed’s services index Confidence is an interesting one because the survey covers the first two weeks of November and the election split that in

The major US stock indices all closed higher on the day. The gains were led by the Russell 2000 which rose by 1.47%. However like a selling took the price below the all-time high closing level of 2442.74 by less than one point. Close, but no cigar. The Dow industrial average did close at a

The USD is mostly lower in up and back-down trading today. The US yields are mixed and so are the major US stock indices. Pres Elect Trump said that a blanket 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico would be one of his first executive orders, and would charge China 10% on all goods that led

Prior was 4.13% Indirects were awarded 71.6% vs. an average of 65.8%, that’s also the 2nd highest on record Even with today’s big rally in fixed income, this is the highest yield in four months. Still, it’s a 1.8 bps stop through and that highlights real-money demand for fixed income, which is an impressive endorsement

Ukraine hit Russia with US-made ATACMS twice in the last three days.Russian defence ministry says preparing retaliatory measures. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Deutsche Bank chief global strategist outlook for the benchmark US equity index: S & P 500 to rise as high as 7,000 year-end 2025 “We see S & P 500 buybacks rising from an annual run rate of $1.1 trillion currently to about $1.3 trillion next year, rising in line with earnings. We see the

US oil and gas producers will not raise output significantly in the coming yearsTrump mulls an AI czar – AxiosECB’s Rehn: Inflation expected to hit ECB’s target in 2025ECB’s Centeno: Inflation is getting close to the 2% targetECB’s Villeroy: Trump policies likely to have limited impact on European inflationPotential for dollar selling this month end

Prior was +0.4% m/mPrices +4.6% y/y vs +4.8% expectedPrior y/y reading 5.2% Data from the FHFA: House prices up 0.7% m/m vs +0.4% priorPrices up 4.4% y/y vs 4.4% prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The drop this week sees price take a tumble from $2,700 with the low earlier touching $2,605. That was held by the 38.2 Fib retracement level of the swing higher since the middle of November, seen at around $2,607 currently. That led to a slight bounce with price action then weaving in and out of

Japan October 2024 PPI Services (Corporate Services Price Index) more to come *** Japan Services Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices received by service providers (in the private sector) for their services in Japan Data published by the Bank of Japancovers services such as transportation and communication, finance

US Treasury yields are at the highs of the day, up 4-6 bps across the curve in a move that unwinds nearly half of the drop yesterday. With that, the US dollar is making headway. The pound had traded higher against the US dollar but has now reversed course and is down 11 pips to

🌟 Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a day of notable optimism across several key sectors. The technology and healthcare sectors emerged as the day’s big winners, while industrial stocks faced slight headwinds. Here’s what investors need to know about the dynamics shaping today’s market landscape. 📈 Technology and Semiconductors: Nvidia (NVDA) is leading

Prior was +2.0Revenue index +10.9 vs +9.2 prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Is Intel Stock a Buy or Sell? Here’s My Strategic Orientation for 2024 🎯 Hi, Itai Levitan here! 👋 If you’re looking at Intel stock (INTC) and wondering whether it’s time to buy the dip or sell the rally, here’s a flexible framework to consider. The market has its own rhythm, so this is an

Shanghai Securities News cites analysts for the opinion that the People’s Bank of China will possibly cut the RRR in December by 25bps-50bps They say the MLF yesterday paves the way. I’m not sure of that chain of causation though? — The Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) is a central bank regulation that sets the minimum

Exxon Mobil Corp’s Upstream President Liam Mallon said at a conference in London that the Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” will be unlikely under Trump because “the vast majority, if not everybody, is primarily focused on the economics of what they are doing”. The US is pumping more than 13 million barrels of crude a day,

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar remains the strongest currency but overall, we haven’t got much action in the past couple of weeks due to the lack of key catalysts and the market’s pricing remaining largely unchanged around roughly three rate cuts by the end of 2025. During the Asian session, we saw the greenback getting

The dollar is a little higher at the balance today, helped by Trump making his first push on tariffs already. From earlier: Trump threatens a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada The yen is sitting a little higher though, with USD/JPY a touch softer after the gap lower yesterday. The pair did fill the gap

US stocks aren’t phased by Trump’s latest threats of tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. S&P 500 futures are up 17 points, 0.3%, ahead of the open, which is the best level in the pre-market session. One warning sign on the consumer comes from electronics retailer Best Buy, whose shares are down 4% after earnings

Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaking in parliament on TuesdayEuropean Central Bank speakers Tuesday include Mc Caul, CentenoFX option expiries for 26 November 10am New York cutHere is a summary of the policies Trump has said he will pursue in his upcoming 2nd termChina says ‘No one will win a trade war’ after

That said, Villeroy says that Trump’s policies could have the potential to impact market rates though. And rightfully so, that especially if tariffs add to further economic woes for Europe. For now, policymakers continue to try and feed the narrative of a soft landing in this “recovery” phase. If this is their definition of a

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar remains the strongest currency but overall, we haven’t got much action in the past couple of weeks due to the lack of key catalysts and the market’s pricing remaining largely unchanged around roughly three rate cuts by the end of 2025. We saw some interesting moves in other major pairs

1500 GMT/1000 US Eastern time: Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill is due to speak to the Economic Affairs Committee from the House of Lords, the upper house of parliament. The subject of questioning will be On Britain’s poor record of economic inactivity and long-term sickness Sheesh. What’s Pill gonna recommend, a rate cut?

Bloomberg (gated) with the info from Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said it is still appropriate to consider another interest-rate cut at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetinggovernment must take steps to achieving a sustainable fiscal pathnatural rate may be higher and policy not as restrictive This article was written

We will have new projections in DecemberBut developments point to growth remaining fragileGeopolitical risks are increasingPotential changes in US trade policy will only add to the uncertaintyWhen one imposes tariffs, they have to be prepared for retaliation – which can start a vicious cycle At the balance, the emphasis on a “fragile” economy and added

Inflation will fade into the background as it settles at 2%.This will allow Canadian consumers and businesses to spend and invest with confidence.If the economy evolves broadly in line with out forecast, it’s reasonable to expect further rate cuts.We will take decisions one at a time.If the Bank hadn’t raised rates, long-term inflation expectations may

The memecoin market is evolving rapidly, with Pepeto ($PEPETO) emerging as a project focused on supporting and integrating all memecoins through its multifaceted ecosystem. Offering features such as a zero-fee trading platform, a blockchain bridge, and a swap solution, Pepeto aims to enhance interoperability, accessibility, and liquidity in the memecoin space. With its presale price

You may have seen the overly excited headlines hitting on this from around the place … they came as Bitcoin was getting smashed lower so were best ignored. However, its not bad news for the crypto and now that some of the excitement has worn off, some detail: Rumble has announced a corporate treasury diversification

In recent weeks, the debates have mostly revolved around Trump, particularly the changes his return to power could bring to the world. And, of course, most are expecting the worst… One of the main concerns is the possibility of new tariffs being imposed on imports, which could lead to a full-blown trade war, as those

From earlier: Trump threatens a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada And so it begins. The random Trump tweets sending waves across markets. The first victims are the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso. The former tumbled on the headline, with USD/CAD racing to its highest levels since 2020 as it briefly breached 1.4100. The high

This is a repeat. The question we need answered is whether rates will be lower by the end of 2024. Market pricing for a cut next month is 53%, and 47% for a hold. More: Says he’s closer to the median on neutral rate estimateRates have a fair way to go before they get to

Not to jinx the market 16 minutes to the close but the Russell 2000 is on pace for a record close. Currently the price is at 2451.64 up 45.97 points or 1.91%. The all-time high close going back to November 5, 2021 is at 2442.74. So there’s a 9-point cushion between now and the 4

Israel and Lebanon agree to terms of a ceasefire – reportGeopolitics: Israel government has reservations about details of agreement on ceasefireECB’s Nagel: increasingly confident over disinflationFed’s Goolsbee: Interest rates will be lower by the end of 2025US sells 2-year notes at 4.274% vs 4.292% WIECB’s Lane: Gradualism is not a universal principle, some times require

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar remains the strongest currency but overall, we haven’t got much action in the past couple of weeks due to the lack of key catalysts and the market’s pricing remaining largely unchanged around roughly three rate cuts by the end of 2025. During the Asian session, we saw the greenback getting

A Canadian official says: “It was a good discussionThey agreed to stay in touch” Earlier: Trump threatens a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada CAD got trashed: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

EU must be unitedWe must seek talks with US so not everyone loses as a result of a trade war With Canada and Mexico the first ones to be targeted by Trump, Europe will have to look over their shoulders as Trump won’t be far behind in singling out the bloc next. This article was

European economy is facing stagnationThat is the price we pay to fight inflation Just some token remarks there by Centeno in general. There is a slight nod in leaning towards saying that they are getting close to achieving their inflation target. But that seems to be the case as they’re faced with a further slowdown

An almost empty data agenda for the session ahead: Japan Corporate Services Price Index (AKA Services Producer Price Index (PPI)) measures the average change over time in the prices received by service providers (in the private sector) for their services in Japan Data published by the Bank of Japancovers services such as transportation and communication,

Deutsche notes that the post-election moves in US assets are making for significant rebalancing signals on the basis of relative equity performance. According to the signals from their model, this will see potential for dollar supply with the largest signals being EUR/USD demand and USD/CHF supply. The firm also points out that there has been

German DAX futures -0.6%UK FTSE futures -0.5% And that’s arguably the reaction we’re seeing from European equities ahead of the open later. In China, the CSI 300 index closes down by 0.2%. Meanwhile, US futures are also looking fairly cautious with S&P 500 futures flat at the moment. This article was written by Justin Low

The NZD/USD pair opened with a gap higher but has spent the session oscillating within a narrow range. On the downside, support has held firm near swing levels established on November 14 and 18, as well as during two tests today, between 0.5835 and 0.5839. On the upside, the 100-hour moving average (MA), currently at

34 of 38 economists expect the Bank of Korea to hold its base rate at 3.25% at the November 28 meeting. 4 expect a 25 bps cut The info comes via a Reuters survey. The strength of the USD against the won is cited as a reason for the Bank to hold: “expected to force

Trump threatened tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and more on China earlier: Trump threatens a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada A statement from the Washington Chinese Embassy “About the issue of US tariffs on China, China believes that China-US economic and trade cooperation is mutually beneficial in nature””No one will win a trade war or

The main highlight for today will be the release of the US Consumer Confidence report. We will also have some low tier data like US House Price Index and some regional Fed indices. We will conclude the day with the FOMC Meeting Minutes although as it’s usually the case it’s unlikely to provide anything new.

The USD/CAD gapped lower over the weekend following news that Scott Bessent would be named Treasury Secretary under Trump. However, the initial decline lacked follow-through, and the pair resumed its upward momentum. Key Levels Tested The price rebounded above the August 2024 high at 1.39458 and the 2022 high at 1.39785, signaling bullish intent.Momentum carried

A good ol’ sense of déjà vu, eh? It’s a throwback to the 2016 to 2020 era as Trump takes office again at the White House. And we didn’t have to wait too long before his first attempt to rattle markets. In case you missed it, he tweeted that: “As everyone is aware, thousands of

Kudo to Reuters for this summary of Trump’s trade policy, climate change, the war in Ukraine, electric vehicles, Americans’ taxes and illegal immigration. Link here: here is a summary of the policies he has said he will pursue when he takes office on Jan. 20 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Chair of NATO’s Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer, spoke at an event in Brussels: warned business heads to prepare for a “Wartime Scenario” by bringing production lines back home instead of relying on countries like China or Russia”If we can make sure that all crucial services and goods can be delivered no matter what,

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

08:20 Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Rhys Mendes will speak at the Greater Charlottetown Area Chamber of Commerce in Prince Edward Island. The event is billed as: Rhys Mendes, Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada, will unpack how monetary policy worked to bring inflation down and why it is important to keep inflation near the 2%

1000 GMT/0500 US Eastern time: Speech followed by Q&A by ECB board member Elizabeth McCaul at the EBF’s Executive Committee Meeting in Frankfurt 1500 GMT/1000 US Eastern time: ECB member and Bank of Portugal Governor Mario Centeno will present the Bank of Portugal’s financial stability report Centeno is probably more likely to provide pertinent comments

There are a couple on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold. They are all for EUR/USD and layered at the 1.0415, 1.0475, and 1.0500 levels. The one at 1.0500 ties together with the 100-hour moving average currently, so that is likely to keep a lid on price action during the session. But

Chaos is not necessarily a bad thing for traders. Its time to get on board. Monday’s narrative: Bessent will moderate Trump on tariffs. What baloney. No sooner did I say this US yields and dollar dropped on Monday on the news that Trump had nominated Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. The reasoning is Bessent has

USD surges as the market gets reminded of reality. Trump says as one of his many first executive orders, he will charge Mexico and Canada a 25% tariff on all products coming into the US and will charge China ‘an additional 10% tariff’. CAD is getting smashed … well everything excluding the USD is. All

US yields and dollar dropped on Monday on the news that Trump had nominated Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. The reasoning is Bessent has indicated “a possible more balanced approach” to trade tariffs. That’s an interesting narrative. Folks love a story. I’d suggest the moves were more due to a cascade of “get me out

A note from RaboBank argues for EUR/USD to parity by mid 2025. Citing: Trump expected to implement trade tariffs, which would negatively impact eurozone economies, particularly Germany’sGerman exporters would thus “almost certainly welcome a softer euro” this could raise further calls for the European Central Bank to continue lowering ratesTrump’s planned tariffs and tax cuts

Synopsis: Barclays acknowledges that the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) December meeting is now “live” following surprising inflation data and Governor Ueda’s recent remarks. While maintaining a January rate hike as their base case, Barclays highlights key factors that could influence an earlier move. Key Points: October Inflation Surprise: Japan’s nationwide October BoJ core CPI rose

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Between them, Bitcoin and Ethereum make up 75% of the world’s cryptocurrency market. They both run on blockchain, both can be traded and used to make peer-to-peer payments, and both now have their own exchange-traded funds, as of earlier this year. However, they have their inherent differences. Bitcoin is more recognizable and, despite not having

Bloomberg carry the report. The news was out earlier, in brief: The European Union has proposed for the first time to target Chinese companies and individuals with visa bans and asset freezes over their dealings with Russian firms linked to Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine, according to RFE/RL. The new measures, which are laid out

British Retail Consortium (BRC) monthly shop price index, a monthly measure of UK shop price inflation. for November 2024. Comes in at -0.6% y/y prior -0.8% GBP has been caught up in the USD strength with Trump issuing a threat to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico on the day

Goldman Sachs published their outlook for inflation in 2025, titling it with the choice that will be made: “Tariffs or 2%” GS says the current level of PCE inflation, 2.7% y/y, “has returned most of the way back to the 2% target”, and that the muchh of the gap from 2.7 down to 2 “appears

ANZ highlights that the upcoming RBNZ meeting is unlikely to spark a positive shift for the NZD. Market expectations of a 50bp rate cut align with ongoing dovish policy trends, keeping downside pressure on the NZD against the USD and AUD. While year-end seasonality could provide some upside, near-term prospects remain neutral to negative. Key

ECB Nagel: Increasingly confident over disinflationRate cuts must be gradual as risks remain.Growth likely to stagnate in Q4Germany falling behind euro zone averageSlower wage growth to help service prices to moderateTrump tariffs boosting eurozone inflation a real risk The EURUSD tried to extend above technical lows including the 100 hour moving average, a downward sloping

Today is Scott Bessent day in financial markets and that means we’re all trying to get to know him. Naturally, given that he’s an FX guy, we’re all cheering for him. There are far too many academics in government and I don’t think there is any better experience for macro policymaking than global macro trading,

It will be interesting to see how Trump’s retribution tour shakes out. I suspect he has a pretty long list of enemies on it. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The US treasury will show $68 billion of 2-year notes at 1 PM ET. The 2-year note auction is the first of three coupon auctions this week. The treasury will auction five and seven-year notes on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively before the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. Last week the US treasury auctioned off 20-year bonds.

The GBP/USD pair moved higher from last week’s closing level near 1.2530 but encountered strong resistance around a key swing area between 1.2596 and 1.2614. After testing this zone, buyers gave way to sellers. In the early European session, the price decline paused just ahead of the 1.2530 level, prompting another attempt to the upside.

Al Jezeera is reporting that Israel government has reservations about some details of the agreement of the Israeli Lebanon cease-fire. In other the geopolitical war news: Germany’s defense minister Pitorius says that Russia’s war on Ukraine is no longer a regional conflict, Russia Ukraine war has reached an international dimension Gold continues its decline with

The Bank of England reduced rates by 25 basis points to 4.75% on November 7. 0900 GMT/0400 US Eastern time: Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli gives a speech at the annual Bank of England Watchers’ Conference organised by King’s Business School 1030 GMT/0530 US Eastern time: Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member

Radio France Internationale reports on the tension in French politics at the moment: Political tensions peak over the French budget, with PM Barnier considering Article 49.3 to bypass parliamentary approval.Opposition, including Le Pen’s far-right RN and the left-wing bloc, threatens a no-confidence vote against the government.Le Pen criticizes Barnier’s inflexibility and dismisses fears of chaos

When people in markets found out that fund manager Scott Bessent was a leading candidate for Treasury Secretary, the natural question to ask was: How good was he? His fund was Key Square Capital and I searched hard for his returns when his name was floated. I wasn’t able to find them, which is almost

The US dollar is rebounding after a tough start to the week. It comes as the Bessent-bounce unwinds. The bond and stock markets started the day thrilled with the pick of the new Treasury Secretary but stocks have faded with the S&P 500 up 17 points after rising as much as 50. Treasury yields remain

Crude oil prices have dropped sharply as optimism grows for a potential peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon. Currently, prices are down approximately $2, trading near $69.13. The intraday low reached $69.01, bringing the price close to the 200-hour moving average (MA) (depicted as the green line on the chart). This MA level is acting

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 13 bps (54% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 69 bps ECB: 39 bps (55% probability of 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 146 bps BoE: 5 bps (78% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 74 bps BoC: 31 bps (75%

There were already some murmurs about this since Friday, so this just adds credence to the notion. As a reminder, OPEC+ will be discussing oil output policy next on 1 December i.e. this coming weekend. OPEC+ had already said that they would delay the planned start to easing production cuts from 1 December to 1

Gold and oil are under pressure on a report that Lebanon and Israel are near a ceasefire. I’m surprised at the size of these moves as a ceasefire has been close for weeks. In any case, gold is down around $40 on the news and oil down $1.50, both unwinding a big part of last

Gold Price Decline: A Technical Perspective Gold prices have dropped over $80 today, a decline of 3.00%, marking one of the most significant setbacks for the commodity this year. This comes after five consecutive days of gains last week. The dip coincides with easing geopolitical tensions following discussions of a potential cease-fire between Israel and

Retail sales in the third quarter in New Zealand were expected to fall, and while they have its not by as much as was respected. -0.1% q/q expected -0.5%, prior -1.2%For the y/y, -2.5% (prior -3.6%) Trade data for October was also published: Later this week we’ll get another cash rate cut from the Reserve

USD selling has pushed the USDCHF below a swing area between 0.8880 and 0.8992 (call it 0.8900). That comes after a sharp rise in Friday which took the price above technical target. The fall below the swing area is given sellers some comfort after the sharp rise of seen over the last seven or so

The EURUSD is correcting higher as dollar selling is dominating trading today. Yields are lower with the 10 year now down -11 basis points at 4.300%. The 2-year yield is down -6.4 basis points. Technically, the EURUSD is above a swing area between 1.0483 and 1.0500. The price also is looking to extend above a

Market moves today are dominated by repositioning after Trump nominated Scott Bessent to lead the Treasury Department. The US dollar is weaker, Treasury yields are lower and stock futures point to new records. Some quick thoughts: 1) One of us! Bessent is an FX guy. His career was made as a deputy for George Soros.

Flexible meeting by meeting approach assures that we remain responsiveGradualism is not a universal principle, some circumstances require a stronger responseIt is essential that we are agile in respond to risks that might crystallize We must remain open-minded about the speed and scale of rate moves The market is 50/50 on whether we will get

Treasury yields at the front end are still down 6 bps to 4.31% but they fell as low as 4.29% and have picked up recently. Some of the moves are caught up in the Israel-Lebanon headlines so it’s tough to get a clean read. At the same time, this chart is telling. There are a

A senior U.S. official told Axios that Isreal and Lebanon have agreed to the terms of the ceasefire. Oil is declining on this, though I don’t see it as a big surprise. The Israeli Security Cabinet is expected approve the deal on Tuesday. “We think we have a deal. We are on the goal line

In brief from the Cboe announcement on Friday afternoon US time: The first cash-settled index options related to the price of spot Bitcoin Options are based on the new Cboe Bitcoin U.S. ETF Index, designed to reflect the performance of spot Bitcoin ETFs listed on U.S. exchanges Options on standard and mini index, as well

Prior was -3.0Production -0.9 vs +14.6 priorNew orders -11.9 vs -3.7 priorCapex +7.8 vs +4.6 priorEmployment +4.9 vs -5.1 priorOutlook +5.8 vs -3.3 Comments in the report: Chemical manufacturing Global industrial demand for chemicals remains stable but at low levels. Our outlook six months forward is for very slow improvement, but that outlook is uncertain

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to cut its cash rate target by 50bp this week. Preview comments from KiwiBank: we’re expecting another 50bps rate cut on Wednesday. It’s the right thing to do. We know it, the market knows it, and the RBNZ should know it too. The updated OCR track

This is a composite index of data that’s already released so it’s not a market mover but it’s a decent overview of the US economy. Worst reading since JanuaryPrior -0.28 (revised to -0.27) This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

I worry about the risk mood at the moment as the megacap tech stocks and bitcoin turn lower. Bitcoin bulls were frothing at the idea of $100K in thinner weekend liquidity but $99,400 was the peak and the sellers have been in charge since. They took another run in Asia but couldn’t break the weekend

Sector Overview Today’s US stock market showcased a blend of resilience and gains across several sectors. Technology experienced a modest but stabilizing trend with Microsoft (MSFT) holding firm at +0.04%, while other tech giants like Adobe (ADBE) and Oracle (ORCL) posted gains of 1.26% and 1.13% respectively. Amid these trends, the semiconductor segment saw mixed

Fundamental Overview Copper continues to have a hard time as the market demands more stimulus from the Chinese officials to stimulate growth more strongly. Copper has been tightly correlated to the Chinese stock market in recent years which just shows the strong dependence of the commodity to the Chinese economy. That should not be surprising

Prior readings in parenthesis: Manufacturing: -16.7 (-18.3) Business-related services: +7.0 (+3.8) Construction: -5.3 (-8.6) Trade: -9.7 (-4.5) Overall: -11.1 (-12.8) This is a leading indicator for Europe, though it’s a small bump and trade is a big drag. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Recent CPI outturns show no asymmetry in inflation unwindingFall in services PPI appears to be slowing but probably due to erratic componentsRisks to outlook is uncertain and difficult to gaugeThe lack of reliable data is hindering monitoring process Do keep in mind that she’s arguably the most dovish member among the policy committee when reading

As a critical resource in the global economy, oil is integral not only to the energy sector but also to industries such as transportation, manufacturing, and agriculture. Changes in its prices impact inflation rates, production costs, and global trade. For instance, oil price increases can accelerate global inflation. This effect ripples through various sectors, with

It is too early to declare victory on inflationWill be monitoring data flow in the coming months to calibrate policy as neededUK economy has made good progress on disinflationBut persistent components of inflation and labour market uncertainty are causes for concernOutlook for wages, services prices is unclearBOE is hampered by challenges on quality of labour

China – Citic Securities say PBoC may cut RRR, buy government bonds in Decemberto smooth liquidity fluctuations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The week ahead features several key economic events to watch. On Tuesday, the U.S. will release the CB consumer confidence index, new home sales, and the Richmond manufacturing index, providing updates on consumer sentiment and economic activity. Wednesday’s attention shifts to Australian inflation data, followed by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) monetary policy

New Zealand retail sales data for Q3 is the highlight. Retail spending in NZ has been pressured by high rates and a weak economy, and this is expected to show in the data again today, despite the RBNZ kicking off its easing cycle in August: The RBNZ reduced the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25

Wall Street Journal (gated) with the report : In his first interview following his selection, Bessent said his policy priority will be to deliver on Trump’s various tax-cut pledges making his first-term cuts permanenteliminating taxes on tips, social-security benefits and overtime payenacting tariffs and cutting spending will also be a focusas will be “maintaining the

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The gold price has fallen away to open the week here in Asia, to lows circa USD2690. Down from a three-week high. On Friday UBS sent out a note confirming their US$2,900 target for gold by year-end 2025. Analysts cite: gold the “preferred hedge against geopolitical tensions” (UBS cite Russia’s launch of an experimental hypersonic

And typically, that means broader markets will likely observe a more quiet and slower trading period as well. Even though Thanksgiving falls on Thursday and markets will be open again on Friday, the festive period usually sees many US businesses and offices in a holiday mood until the weekend. As a result, just be mindful

The greenback is recovering losses to start European morning trade, as it starts to chew into the opening gap lower today. USD/JPY is now up to 154.60 levels, just a few pips shy of closing its opening gap lower: Besides that, the commodity currencies are also seeing opening gains somewhat covered against the dollar now.

Fundamental Overview Crude oil remains confined in a range between the 72.00 resistance and the 67.00 support as the market continues to weigh the future scenarios. On one hand, we have the Trump’s victory which might be seen as bearish in the short term for fear of the tariffs and a slowdown in global growth

Bessent said his policy priority will be to deliver on Trump’s various tax-cut pledgesUBS target US$2,900 gold year-end 2025 – preferred hedge against geopolitical tensionsBank of England Dhingra and Lombardelli speaking on MondayPeople’s Bank of China shift to the MLF as the main policy tool – drain today facilitatesEuropean Central Bank speakers Monday include Lane,

The USD is lower. US stocks are higher in pre-market futures trading. US yields are lower. The market is approving of the naming of Scott Bessent the new Treasury Secretary. Bessent won the battle that was whittled down to Kevin Warsh and Marc Rowan after Howard Lutnick was knocked off the list and was instead

Headlines: Dollar down as Trump picks Scott Bessent for role of Treasury secretaryWeekly update on interest rate expectationsReminder: It will be a holiday-shortened week in the USECB’s Lane: Monetary policy should not remain restrictive for too longBOE’s Lombardelli: I support a gradual removal of monetary policy restrictionBOE’s Lombardelli: We remain focused more on services prices

Prior 86.5Current conditions 84.3 vs 85.4 expectedPrior 85.7Expectations 87.2 vs 87.0 expectedPrior 87.3 German business morale dipped in November with both the current conditions and outlook readings also easing compared to the month before. This just reaffirms the struggles in Europe’s largest economy with storm clouds still brewing going into next year. It’s not a

Eurostoxx +0.9%Germany DAX +0.9%France CAC 40 +1.0%UK FTSE +0.4%Spain IBEX +0.7%Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% This comes as US futures are also seen higher, with S&P 500 futures up 0.5% currently. The more positive mood is to do with Trump’s pick for Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent. Here is his take on tariffs among other things, if

We should not focus too much on one set of data (regarding last week’s PMI data)We remain focused more on services prices and wagesLabour market is still relatively tight This reaffirms the narrative on “gradualism” and if anything, she is shrugging off suggestions that could point towards a rate cut next month. This article was

Domestic sight deposits CHF 451.0 bn vs CHF 455.0 bn prior Swiss sight deposits fall back in the past week but remains within the range seen in the last few months. Here’s the trend: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures +0.5%French CAC 40 futures +0.4%UK FTSE futures +0.1% The mood here is helped by a gap higher in US futures as well, with S&P 500 futures seen up 0.4% currently. The broader market moves to start the week are driven by Trump pick’s for Treasury secretary here. Elsewhere, the dollar is still

It’s the 25th of the month, MLF day. We’d usually have the announcement by now. Nothing so far. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Bank for International Settlements have published research showing fnancial markets have become more susceptible to liquidity shortages. Citing the rise of algorithmic trading and increased market fragmentation. From the BIS report, in brief: average bid-ask spread has significantly declined across stock, foreign exchange and government bond markets over the past 25 years, indicating improved

As it’s usually the case, we have a pretty empty day today on the data front. The only highlight will be the German IFO release in the European session. The IFO index is similar to the German Composite PMI as they are correlated, so it shouldn’t be a big deal. Other than that, we don’t

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. They are for EUR/USD at the 1.0440 and 1.0485 levels. The pair opened with a gap higher today amid a weaker dollar and has been sticking thereabouts since. Offers layered closer to the 1.0500 mark are still in play but the expiries

Fundamental Overview Gold saw a quick drop today during the Asian session with the news of Scott Bessent nomination for Treasury secretary as the most likely culprit. Bessent is a fiscal hawk, and the market views him as a great pick for the job. In fact, one of the main reasons why the magnitude of

The initial reaction seems to be that billionaire Scott Bessent is a “markets guy”. Wall Street is reacting favourably with US futures gapping higher while bonds are also bid, dampening the dollar. So, why exactly are markets responding to Bessent in such a way? Let’s take a look. Bessent has been a rather vocal guy,

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet this week, with a 50bp rate cut expected, although 75bp is getting fomw love too. ANZ forecast a 50bp interest cut from the RBNZ next weekReuters poll: RBNZ to cut cash rate to 4.25% on November 27Goldman Sachs expects a 50bp Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate cut

The job is not done yet on inflation, services prices still need to come downInflation is close to the 2% targetBarring new geopolitical or political risks, a large part of the final stage in bringing inflation back to 2% target will be completed next yearMonetary policy must respond to both downside and upside risks to

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, USD lower to open the new week: EUR/USD 1.0476USD/JPY 154.09GBP/USD 1.2586USD/CHF 0.8925USD/CAD 1.3959AUD/USD 0.6536NZD/USD 0.5858 This article was written by

The news is here from earlier: PBOC net drain 550bn via MLF. Rate unchanged at 2% The Wall Street Journal (gated) recaps the move from the Bank, pointing out: In recent months, Chinese authorities have been recasting the PBOC’s seven-day reverse repo rate as the main policy rate while letting the shorter-term operation play a

The Axios report cites Israeli and US officials Israel and Lebanon are on the cusp of a ceasefire agreement Israeli media has reported that Israel agreed in principle to the proposal for a ceasefire in Lebanon Israel Broadcasting Corporation agreement with Lebanon not yet reached, issues remain. We’ll see. Remember though, for markets hope is

US Republican Senators Lindsey Graham and Tom Cotton have started to draft a package of sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC). Graham spoke on Fox, warning US allies: “To any Ally: Canada, Britain, Germany, France, if you try to help the ICC, we are gonna sanction you. We should crush your economy.” A heads

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

People’s Bank of China issue a one year MLF at 2% 900bn yuan added 1445bn yuan in MLF mature today …. matured on November 15net 550bn yuan drain This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Early FX rates were posted here: Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 25 November 2024 The gap lower for the USD pretty much across the major’s board has remained. USD/JPY is under 154.50: About the only news of note over the weekend was the announcement: Weekend – Trump nominated Scott Bessent to

Coming up from the ECB today: 1630 GMT/1130 US Eastern time: European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane gives a speech at the annual Bank of England Watchers’ Conference organised by King’s Business School 2000 GMT/1500 US Eastern time: Gabriel Makhlouf, governor of the Central Bank of Ireland and a member of the European Central

Goldman Sachs Asset Management 2025 Outlook report is titled “Reasons to Recalibrate.” On bonds, GS is bullish: “When the Fed cuts rates, history suggests the bond market is where investors should want to be,” see broad-based fixed income gainsexpects the Fed to cut rates in December and early 2025main risk for fixed income is renewed

In early FX trade we had a gap down for the US dollar: Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 25 November 2024FX gaps remain in early Tokyo trade The move has been reflected in US Sunday evening futures trade now, 10 yr UST & equity index futures higher. SPX (this is a

Bessent and ex-Fed Warsh were two front runners, Bessent has been given the nod. Bessent background, in brief: was the CIO of Soros Fund Managementfounder of Key Square Capital Management, a hedge fundcame out for the MAGA movement after working for Sorosdonated to Trump’s presidential campaign, has donated to Democrats alsoadvised Trump on economic policy

Mon: German Ifo (Nov), US National Activity Index (Oct)Tue: FOMC Minutes (Nov); US New Home Sales (Oct), Richmond Fed (Nov)Wed: RBNZ Policy Announcement; Australian CPI (Oct), German GfK (Dec), US GDP 2nd (Q3), PCE Prices Prelim. (Q3), PCE Price Index (Oct), Initial Jobless Claims (23rd Nov), Durable Goods (Oct)Thu: US Holiday: Thanksgiving. CBRT Minutes (Nov);

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: PBoC MLF, German IFO.Tuesday: US Consumer Confidence, FOMC Minutes.Wednesday: Australia Monthly CPI, RBNZ Policy Decision, US Q3 GDP 2nd Estimate, US PCE, US Durable Goods, US Jobless Claims.Thursday: German CPI. (US Holiday)Friday: Tokyo CPI, Japan Unemployment Rate, France CPI, Switzerland Q3 GDP, Eurozone CPI, Canada GDP. Tuesday The US Consumer Confidence is

Villeroy heads up the Bank of France. He spoke with Ouest-France newspaper, commenting on wages and CPI: “Prices are increasing less quickly than wages on average — this also allows us to lower interest rates” Villeroy stressed that the ECB reaches its interest rate policy decisions independent of the Federal Reserve: “The proof is that

The Fed’s twice yearly Financial Stability Report highlights: U.S. government fiscal sustainability tops the list of financial system risks cited in the Fed survey of market contacts for the semi-annual Financial Stability Report.Persistent inflation dropped to No. 5 on the risks list from No. 1 in the prior survey, now tied with global trade risks.Trade

Major indices close higher for the trading week by the Russell 2000Baker Hughes oil rigs up 1 Gas rigs down -2European shares close higher despite weak data todayAttack the currency trend: The EURUSD has been stepping lower with more selling todayWhat is the latest tilt for US Treasury Secretary?University of Michigan consumer sentiment final for

The stock indices close week. For the day, the Dow and Russell 2000 rose solidly, the S&P and the Nasdaq less so. Dow industrial average rose 426 points or 0.97% at 44296S&P index rose 20.63 points or 0.35% it 5969.34NASDAQ index rose 31.23 points or 0.16% at 19003.65Russell 2000 rose 42.65 points or 1.80% at

The USD/CHF pair, after trading within a range of 0.8400 to 0.8550 through late August and October, transitioned from consolidation into a trending phase. This shift began as prices broke through key levels in a step-by-step manner, marking the transition from non-trend to trend. Last week, the price moved above the 50% midpoint of the

Baker rig count for the current week: Oil rigs, up 1 to 479 Natural gas rigs down -2 to 99Total rigs for the week down 1 to 583 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Preliminary 73.0Consumer sentiment 71.8 versus 73.7 estimate. Preliminary 73.0. Prior month 70.5Expectations and 76.9 versus 78.5 preliminary. Prior month 74.1Current conditions 63.9 versus 64.4 preliminary. Prior month 64.91-year inflation 2.6% versus 2.6% preliminary5-year inflation 3.2% versus 3.1% preliminary. Prior month 3.0% The data was weaker than the preliminary but up from the prior month. The

The major European indices are closing the day higher despite what was weak flash European PMI data for both manufacturing and service. The final numbers are showing: German DAX +0.89%France’s CAC +0.58%UK’s FTSE 100 1.38%Spain’s Ibex 0.39%Italy’s FTSE MIB 0.60% For the trading week indices are mixed with France and Italy moving lower and Germany,

Fundamental Overview Overall, we’ve seen a rangebound price action in the US Dollar this week as the market’s pricing remained largely unchanged due to the lack of catalysts at three rate cuts by the end of 2025. This morning, we saw some strong bids in the greenback entirely due to the weak Eurozone PMIs as

The USD/JPY pair moved lower in the early Asian session but found support once again near the rising 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, currently at 153.944. This level, which also held yesterday and prompted a bounce, remains a key technical support. Staying above this moving average maintains a bullish bias, while a break

The European data was yucky (if I can use a favorite word of my grandson). All the data from German GDP, to UK retail sales and flash services and manufacturing data missed the expectations. Only one, UK flash services PMI, was 50.0 or better and it came in right at 50.0. Below is summary of

The EUR/USD pair continued its downward trend today, extending a week-long selloff as bearish momentum carried the price through key technical levels. Weak European flash PMI data and concerns from ECB officials over growth and inflation pressured the euro, while stronger-than-expected US PMI data (offset slightly by weaker University of Michigan data) provided support for