With a 70-year legacy of offering investment solutions across diverse industries and asset classes, privately held VanEck now provides millions of customers access to SUI Investment firm VanEck has introduced a product representing SUI. VanEck, known for its financial products that provide access to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, now offers exposure to SUI, the token […]

There are no guaranteed trades in investing. Even “secure” strategies such as Straddles/Strangles, which involve buying a call and a put option on the same stock, can result in losses. The same is true for events. For example, many expected Treasury yields to fall once the Fed announced a change in monetary policy. But even

Over the pas two weeks, the big numbers have been falling like dominoes. Another one is teed up now as bitcoin trades up $1600 to $89,600. In Asia, it rose as high as $89,982 before retracing all the way to $84,500 at the start of US trading. The turn came just before US equities opened,

Fed will ‘most likely’ need more cuts but should ‘proceed cautiously’If Fed cuts too far past neutral, inflation could re-acclerateDifficult to know how many Fed rate cuts may be needed, and how soon they need to happenFed has made a great deal of progress in bringing inflation downFed not quite back to price stability yetUS

European trading will be a bit of a snoozer as such with a lack of headlines. But perhaps we might get some interesting market moves to talk about in the run up to the US CPI report. USD/JPY is now inching just above 155.00 for the first time since end July while EUR/USD is looking

Headlines: US inflation in focus for the day aheadWhat is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?US CPI data due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates (& why they’re crucial to know)ECB’s Villeroy says to expect more rate cutsECB’s Nagel: Core inflation rate is still quite highBOE’s Mann: Inflation has definitely not been vanquishedBOE’s Mann:

We had Fed speakers on Tuesday US time, Kashkari watered down the prospect of a December rate cut … didn;t rule it out but he sounds shaky: Fed’s Kashkari: The fundamentals seems strong and I’m optimistic that will continueFed’s Barkin: Fed in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy evolvesFed’s Waller: Makes no comments

0945 GMT / 0445 US Eastern time – Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann is a panellist on the Female Central Bankers panel organised by BNP Paribas’ Global Markets * The Bank of England cut last week Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 7 Nov: FOMC/BOE cuts by 25 basis points Expectations are for slower cuts

The October US CPI report is due at the bottom of the hour and eyes are mostly fixed on core CPI. The consensus is +0.3%, the same as in September. But more seriously, here is a WSJ graphic showing detailed CPI forecasts and it’s a good guide to the unrounded reading. The thing is, no

The North American session is beginning with the USD relatively steady. The EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDCAD, and NZDUSD are all within 0.10% of the closing levels from yesterday. The biggest mover is the USDJPY with a change of 0.21%. US CPI will be released at the bottom of the hour with the expectation of 0.2%

Later today, Wednesday, 13 November, we get the US consumer inflation data for October 2024 due at 1330 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time Previews posted already: US CPI to be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM. Expectations are for 0.2% MoMUS CPI data due Wednesday – possible upside surprise.US inflation data this week expected

Prior -10.8%Market index 192.4 vs 191.4 priorPurchase index 133.3 vs 130.8 priorRefinance index 506.0 vs 513.5 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.86% vs 6.81% prior After a big dive in mortgage applications in the week before, things are seen stabilising a bit more in the past week. However, the details show a bit of a mixed picture

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. They are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0600 and 1.0650 levels. The former in particular will continue to be a notable one, adding another layer to key support at the figure level for the time being. As such, the expiries are likely

ING remarks after the wages data from Australia earlier: Australia data – Wage Price Index for Q3 2024: +0.8% q/q (expected +0.9%, prior +0.8%)Australia – “Wage inflation is moderating as expected” ING says that year-on-year wage growth slowing to 3.5% is a step in the right direction for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to

Fed speakers on energy, the economy, and maybe policy due on WednesdayUS CPI data due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates (& why they’re crucial to know)AUD traders heads up – Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock speaks ThursdayThe argument for a near-term Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cut remains very thinJapan’s Seven & i

Due at 8.30 am US Eastern time (1330 GMT): For the full information on this post, why knowing the ranges is important etc, see this I posted earlier during the Asian session: US CPI data due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates (& why they’re crucial to know)Distribution of forecasts for the US CPI report ****

Headline CPI: Prior was +2.4% y/yCurrent y/y is +2.6%m/m reading at +0.2% vs +0.2% expectedMonth-over-month unrounded 0.2441 vs 0.1799% prior Core measures: Core CPI +3.3% vs +3.3% expectedCore CPI m/m +0.3% vs +0.3% expectedCore unrounded +0.2800% vs +0.3124% m/m priorReal weekly earnings +0.1% vs -0.1% prior (prior revised to +0.1%)Core services ex shelter +0.3% vs

Headline CPI reading not telling us that underlying inflation dynamics have been vanquishedServices inflation is pretty stickyEnergy prices are more likely to go up than downSees more volatility and upward bias to some inflation drivers Do keep in mind that Mann is arguably the most hawkish member among the BOE policy committee. So, her comments

The price of bitcoin has reached $90,000 level for the first time. The high price just reached $90,016, but has backed off and trades and $86,090 currently. The price broke above the $80,000 level for the first time during Monday’s trade. Just two days later the price has extended above the the next $10,000 increment.

The economy ministry notes that in light of the US election result, renewed uncertainty among German households and firms cannot be ruled out. It goes without saying that Trump tariffs on German exports is of course the big risk to watch out for. But indirectly, Trump’s tariffs on China will also have some impact on

Justin had the news from the People’s Bank of China here on Monday: PBOC governor will maintain yuan exchange rate at a reasonable, balanced level The PBOC governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized that the Bank will not let the yuan plummet without a fight: Will step up countercyclical adjustmentShould resolutely guard against the risk of exchange

The major US stock indices are all closing lower. No new records today. The final numbers are showing: Dow Industrial average -382.15 points or -0.86% at 43910.98S&P -17.36 points or -0.29% and 5983.99.NASDAQ index -17.36 points or -0.09% at 19281.40. The small-cap was 2000 with a decline of -43.13 points or -1.77% at 2391.84. This

In brief from WPAC’s note: September quarter Wage Price Index below the RBA’s expectation which pointed to a 0.9%qtr rise in both the September and December quarters of 2024Wage inflation peaked at 4.3%yr in December 2023 and has been drifting lower through 2024 Wage Price Index (WPI) rose 0.8% (3.5%yr) … The RBA is currently

Comments from the Minneapolis Fed President in conversation with Yahoo Finance. Contacts are optimisticWe have to wait and see what the new government policies are, we will have to wait and seeA one-time tariff increase in transitory but it can become tit-for-tat, right now we’re all just guessingImmigration could have a big effect but we

German DAX futures -0.2%French CAC 40 futures -0.4%UK FTSE futures -0.1% The CAC 40 index is now down to its lowest since mid-August while the DAX is eyeing its October lows of 18,911. This comes with US futures also marked down so far on the day. S&P 500 futures are lower by 0.3% as we

Japanese wholesale prices, the PPI or CGPI: +0.2% m/m expected 0.0%, prior 0.0% +3.4% y/y expected +3.0%, prior +2.8% The higher results will be a bit of a tailwind for the yen, at the margin. Not too much though, there is the huge monetary policy divergence that is weighing on the hapless yen to contend

Japan’s Seven & i Holdings is considering a management buyout to take itself private with funding from banks, Itochu Corp. and the founding Ito family in a transaction that could be worth US$58 billion “People with knowledge of the matter” cited in the reports via Nikkei and Bloomberg. The Japanese owner of 7-Eleven is considering

An ‘activist’ approach means to cut less until it is clear inflation persistence has been purgedI would be ready to cut rates in bigger steps when inflation risks have gone As mentioned, she’s arguably the most hawkish member on the policy committee. So, these comments need to be taken with that in consideration. Her comments

Leading online global trading provider HFM, a unified brand name of HF Markets Group, is committed to helping traders level up their trading by providing top-notch trading tools and services. Traders only need to open a live account and complete their registration to give their trading a boost, as they will instantly gain access to

Amazon’s Bezos sells US$1.25bn of shares. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Why it’s important? The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on

Fundamental Overview Gold is now down almost 6% from the US election day. That shouldn’t be surprising as the last time we got a red sweep gold dropped by more than 16%. The reason is that a red sweep brings a more expansionary fiscal policy and should be not only positive for growth but also

China-based Construction Machinery and Equipment (CME) with the data from earlier this week. In October China’s excavator sales are estimated to have reached 16,791 units: that’s +15.1% y/y More notably, excavator sales in the Chinese domestic market are estimated at 8,266 units +21.6% y/y Excavator sales to the export market +9.46% y/y For the January-October

Announcement here: Trump names Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy to lead Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) DOGE pops, as intended I suspect: I posted last week the warning that we’d be getting tradeable volatility from trump like we did the first time around: Trump’s first term was characterised by policy-shift-by-tweet … This produced some wild swings

The dollar continues to sit in a good spot this week, holding gains ahead of the main event later today. It’s all about the US CPI report and markets are likely to remain more tentative up until then. As for the bigger picture, the post-election sentiment continues to play out for the most part and

Welcome to the US CPI Day! Inflation is back at the top of market’s focus after the Fed’s 50 bps cut in September, the acceleration in the US data and Trump’s victory. If we look at the markets, there’s been already some pre-positioning/hedging into a potentially higher than expected CPI print, so there’s some risk

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The US CPI will be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET. What is expected? October Headline CPI expected to rise by 0.2% MoM, which is the same as last month. The forecasted range is 0.1 to 0.3%.YoY Headline CPI expected to increase to 2.6%, up from 2.4%, with a forecast range of 2.3 to 2.6%.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

At 10 am Sydney time on Thursday, November 14, 2024, Panel Participation by RBA Governor Michele Bullock, at the ASIC Annual Forum, Sydneythat’s 2300 GMT, 1800 US Eastern time on Wednesday, November 13, 2024 Perhaps we’ll hear something on wages data from earlier today: Australia data – Wage Price Index for Q3 2024: +0.8% q/q

Via a Bank of America research note – analysts expect a 4% boost to forward earnings due to Trump’s corporate tax cut plans. This will be a tailwind for equities, at the margin. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Australia data – Wage Price Index for Q3 2024: +0.8% q/q for the third consecutive quarter expected +0.9%, prior +0.8%Both the private sector and the public sector rose 0.8%, seasonally adjusted, for the quarter. +3.5% y/y, lowest annual rise for the series since December quarter 2022 and followed four consecutive quarters of annual wage growth

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Deutsche Bank has revised its forecast for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) terminal rate, lowering its central-case projection from 2.25% to 1.50%. The bank now anticipates the ECB’s policy rate will dip slightly below the neutral rate by the end of 2025, rather than returning to neutral by mid-year as previously expected. This shift in

US indices close lower on the day. No new records today.Bitcoin trades above $90,000 for the first time. It broke the $80,000 level on MondayUS CPI to be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM. Expectations are for 0.2% MoMIt’s not a pretty picture in ChinaFed’s Kashkari: The fundamentals seems strong and I’m optimistic that will continueBofA:

The Chinese market and related global-growth proxies got excited about potential fiscal stimulus in October. After a flurry of buying, there has been some consolidation as we waited for the details. Those details came on Friday and just before that, the market tried to break higher in a front-run of potentially larger stimulus. Beijing didn’t

The New York Federal Reserve branch’s Roberto Perli is manager of the Fed’s System Open Market Account (SOMA). Recent quarter-end money market volatility not historically large.Still strong evidence reserve levels remain abundant.No imminent signs of issues for Fed to implement monetary policy.Recent quarter-end pressure was contained.Slow rise in repo rates has been orderly.Standing repo facility

There were numerous Fed speakers on Tuesday, US time: Fed’s Kashkari: The fundamentals seems strong and I’m optimistic that will continueFed’s Barkin: Fed in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy evolvesFed’s Waller: Makes no comments on economy or monetary policy outlook and we get one more today in Asia: 2200 GMT / 1700

CPI data from the US due today, Wednesday, November 13, 2024. Greg popped up a preview earlier: US CPI to be released tomorrow at 8:30 AM. Expectations are for 0.2% MoM In a recent note, BMO previewed the data also. Analysts at the bank suggest that any significant influence from recent storms on inflation data

BofA suggests staying short on CHF, particularly against USD and GBP, as post-election volatility subsides and G10 rate repricing supports a weaker CHF. While political risks may pose a minor obstacle, BofA sees CHF depreciation as likely due to policy divergence, with recent fiscal stimulus in the UK reinforcing the case for long GBP/CHF. Key

The high yield close for the 10-year note last week reached 4.433%. The current yield is currently at 4.4315%, up 12.3 basis points. A close above would be the highest close going back to July 1, 2024 when the close came in at 4.465%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF has moved up to a high of 0.88357. That is just short of a high swing area on the daily chart above at 0.88379. Get above that level and stay above, opens the door for more upside momentum. ON the downside, the closest risk is the 200 day MA, but more conservative risk

Amazon is reporting that is AI business is growing at triple-digit percentages. This is according to the Business Insider. The shares of Amazon moved to a new all-time high on Thursday of last week at $212.25. Since then the price has rotated lower (working on its third day to the downside) with the shares currently

The AUDUSD has moved lower to a swing area low at 0.65357. The high of the swing area comes in at 0.65537. It would take a move above that level and then the 61.8% at 0.6575, to give the buyers more confidence and cause the sellers to have some cause for pause. ON the downside,

Today the main highlight was the release of the UK labour market report. The data was pretty mixed but leaning more on the dovish side. We don’t have much for the rest of the day as we just get some low tier releases like the German ZEW and the US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.

The major European indices took a hit on Tuesday, with the German DAX of falling -2.13% France’s CAC -2.69%. For the DAX it was the largest decline going back to August.. For the Cac, it was the largest decline going back to July 2023 Concerns about the implications of Donald Trump’s return to the White

LiteFinance has entered into a multi-year partnership with Premier League football club Leicester City as their Official Trading Partner. We are excited to announce that LiteFinance has entered into a multi-year partnership with Premier League football club Leicester City as their Official Trading Partner. This collaboration marks a significant milestone for LiteFinance as we expand

The USD is moving higher. The EURUSD is against the 2024 low at 1.0600.The USDJPY is trading to new highs and has entered into a swing area between 154.54 in 155.09. The high price last week reached 154.704 and is the next upside target. For the GBPUSD it is trading to new lows and moving

The USDJPY is extending to a new session high after testing is 61.8% retracement earlier in the day at 153.397 and finding willing buyers. The market to the upside has now taken the price to a high of 154.75. That has extended above the high price from last week at 154.704. The buyers are making

Stanley Black & Decker is said to be when price increases in anticipation of US tariffs. The company expects a $200 million impact on operating income. As a result they are looking toward raising prices to offset the tariff impact. Pres. elected Tromp will take over on January 20, 2025 (69 days from now). This

Up, up and away. As far as Trump trades go in the post-election period, Bitcoin is arguably one of the biggest winners. The cryptocurrency is continuing to surge to fresh record highs, now closing in on the $90,000 mark. Compared to last Tuesday, Bitcoin is up a whopping 32% now as it eyes the next

Warped Games, an indie game studio consisting of web3 and veteran game developers who have a legacy in creating player-focused games like LEGO Universe, Jumpgate, and Dragons and Titans, is on a mission to onboard millions of players to expand the Warped Universe, an immersive blockchain-powered game where players’ actions and decisions shape the environment

Prior 4.0%Employment change 219k vs 290k expectedPrior 373kAverage weekly earnings +4.3% vs +3.9% 3m/y expectedPrior +3.8%; revised to +3.9%Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +4.3% vs +4.7% 3m/y expectedPrior +4.9%October payrolls change -5kPrior -15k; revised to -9k The UK jobless rate jumps up with payrolls for October once again showing a net decline, though the number

Prior was -7.0% (revised to -6.3%)Non-residential permits +18.0% to C$5.2BResidential permits +7.5% to C$7.7B Details: Ontario (+25%) leads gains in both residential and non-residential sectorsInstitutional building booming: +85.9% m/m, driven by healthcare facilitiesGains in the institutional component (+$824.9 million). However, industrial (-$17.6 million) and commercial (-$9.9 million) construction intentions edged down.Industrial permits remain elevated after

The Journal speculates on Buffett’s largest ever pile of cash. The Wall Street Journal is gated, but here is a quick summary of the pice: Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway holds $325 billion in cash, mostly in Treasury bills. It remains cautious on new investments. Berkshire recently sold parts of its holdings in Apple and Bank

Wall Street Journal (gated) with the report. In brief: The plan under consideration would merge major Russian oil companies Rosneft, Gazprom Neft, and Lukoil into a single entity to strengthen control over global energy markets and support Russia’s economy during wartime. The merged company would become the world’s second-largest crude producer, behind Saudi Aramco, and

And they are off… US stocks are officially open and the major indices are marginally higher after closing at record levels yesterday. The Dow is higher. the S&P is trading above and below unchanged while the NASDAQ index is also trading above or below unchanged. The small-cap Russell 2000 sniffed its all-time record high from

Hello, this is Itai Levitan at ForexLive.com. Today, I’m diving into Natural Gas Futures (NG), which are trading around 2.92 as of yesterday’s close. This analysis will be relevant to those of you looking at CFDs, futures themselves, or stocks related to natural gas. Here’s a detailed view of my approach: Natural Gas Futures Overview

OPEC cuts 2024 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.82 million BPD (prev. 1.93 milliong BPD). OPEC cuts 2025 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.54 million BPD (prev. 1.64 million BPD). OPEC says its crude oil production averaged 26.53 million BPD in October 2024, up 466,000 BPD from September led by Libya. This article

One year inflation expectations 2.9% versus 3.0% last month. That is the lowest in four yearsThree-year inflation expectations 2.5% versus 2.7% last monthFive-year inflation expectations 2.8% versus 2.9% last month other details : Consumers in October saw lower likelihood of missing a minimum debt payment for the first time in five monthsConsumers in October saw

Hedge fund titan John Paulson is dropping out of the running for Treasury Secretary. “My complex financial obligations would prevent me from holding an official position in President Trump’s administration at this time,” he said. Now that’s obviously damage control as he lobbied hard for the position but seems to have lost. Last week I

The USDCAD has backed backs off from ceiling area again. That area comes between 1.3945 and 1.3958. The subsequent move to the downside has the pair heading toward 200 and 100-hour MA support targets at 1.39054 and 1.3898 respectively (green and blue lines on the chart below). A move below that level would target the

Is Google Stock a Buy or Sell? Hello, this is Itai Levitan at ForexLive.com. Today, I’m analyzing whether Google stock (Alphabet Inc.) is a buy or sell, and my take may surprise you. Unlike many who are looking to buy now, I’m approaching this with a lot more patience. In this update, I’ll walk you

The EURUSD is pushing against its 2024 low at 1.0601. A break below that level would open the door for further downside momentum. A move to new laws would take the price to the lowest level since November 2, 2023. There is not a lot support technically until a swing area near 1.05158 and 1.05316.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The S&P 500 touched a record just after the open but sellers crept in thereafter and now we’ve hit some stops through 6000 on the cash market. Chipmakers are a drag with Nvidia, Intel and Broadcom among those lower. The market has gotten some support from Trump trades but those look like retail piling in.

Tech giants and industrials lead as Tesla takes a dip The US stock market today offers a mixed bag of performances, with major tech players showing resilience, contrasted by notable losses in the auto manufacturing sector. Investors are navigating this patchwork of fortunes with keen attention to sector dynamics and broader market trends. 📈 Technology

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose by 2.2 points in October to 93.7. This is the 34th consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose seven points to 110, the highest reading recorded. A seasonally adjusted net negative 20% of small business owners reported higher nominal sales in the past

A light calendar ahead. With USD/JPY rising back towards 154 again be on the alert for ‘intervention’ type comments from Japanese authorities today. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here. The times in the left-most column are GMT. The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the

Fed’s Waller is speaking but makes no comment on monetary or economic policy in his prepared remarks. He does say: private sector best suited to innovate on payment systemsFed ready to support private innovation, mindful of financial stability.Government should have clear objective when providing financial services.There are times when government can address market inefficienciesStill does

Richmond Fed Pres. parking is speaking and says: Fed is in position to respond appropriately regardless of how economy involves.US economy looks pretty goodLabor market is resilient.From here, labor market mighty be fine or may continue to weaken.Inflation might be coming under control or might risk getting stuck above Fed 2% target.Feds focus may turn

The USDCAD moved higher in the Asian session and extended above the highs over the last few weeks between 1.3945 and 1.3958. The high price extended to 1.39664 but fell short of the 2022 high which came in at 1.3977. The inability to move higher turn the buyers to sellers, and the price has rotated

As the North American session begins, the bond traders return after a day off in observance of Veterans Day. Yields are higher to start their trading week with the 2 year up 6.5 basis points at 4.319% and the 10 year up 6.3 basis points at 4.371%. The 2 year yield has moved to a

OPEC cuts global oil demand growth forecasts for a fourth monthThe importance of market timing: MSTR stock case studyUS October NFIB small business optimism index 93.7 vs 91.5 priorGermany November ZEW survey current conditions -91.4 vs -85.9 expectedBOE’s Pill: Further rate cuts likely to be a gradual processECB’s Rehn: Rate cuts will depend on our

Trump’s victory was already a net negative for China in fears of tariffs that will come. However, Chinese markets will now have to add more disappointment from Beijing’s stimulus measures to the equation. It’s not just in terms of the announcement but even recent data hasn’t been that encouraging. Despite easing measures, new yuan loans

Goldman Sachs sees scope for continued GBP outperformance on the crosses, supported by a strong global risk environment, the BoE’s gradual rate-cut approach, and a favorable UK growth outlook relative to Europe. These factors, combined with resilience to geopolitical risks, suggest GBP strength particularly against EUR. Key Points: Global Risk and Positive Beta: GBP’s positive

Fundamental Overview Bitcoin is now up almost 30% since the election day as the bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency exploded following Trump’s victory. This shouldn’t be surprising given that Trump vowed to make the US the crypto capital of the planet. Moreover, it looks like the US economy continues not only to do well but

It is just a question of how far and how fastRate cut last week does not mean that the job is doneLabour market data today show pay growth still at high levelsThere is still some work to be done on underlying domestic inflation pressures All that being said, Pill argues that there has been “substantial”

German DAX futures -0.9%French CAC 40 futures -0.8%UK FTSE futures -0.4% It is a case of easy come, easy go for European equities. As mentioned yesterday, as much there is optimism in the overall equities space, the European landscape might prove to be a challenging one considering the circumstances and outlook surrounding the euro area

Introduction to Amega Amega is a multi-award-winning global financial broker, authorized, licensed, and regulated by the Mauritius Financial Services Commission under investment license No. GB22200548. Its mission is to make trading simple and accessible to traders of all levels and backgrounds, through the introduction of new technologies, groundbreaking innovations, and a client-first mentality. Amega prides

In the kickstart video, I take a look at the 3 major currency pairs: EUR/USD Summary The EUR/USD continued its downward trend due to concerns over slower economic growth and increased tariffs under President-elect Trump. Key Points: Initially rose in the Asian session, but sellers took control near 1.0665-1.06703 swing area. That area was the

A weekend note from noted analyst Ed Yardini with a strong bullish outlook on US equities. Forecasts: S&P 500 to 6,100 for the end of 20247000 for end 20258,000 for 202610,000 by the end of the decade Citing: “We expect to see animal spirits in measures of consumer and business optimism in coming months as

The dollar continues to dominate proceedings in the post-election period, holding slight gains again today. Fedspeak will be one to watch in the day ahead but I reckon US data will take on more importance in trading this week. We will be getting CPI, PPI, and retail sales data among other things over the next

The pace of the moves depends on the dataWe are data dependent but not data point dependentGrowth outlook has deteriorated due to manufacturing sectorIf disinflation stays on track, it would make a case for further rate cutsWe could be leaving restrictive territory in the spring of 2025The last thing we need now is yet another

Eurostoxx -1.0%Germany DAX -1.0%France CAC 40 -1.0%UK FTSE -0.3%Spain IBEX -0.9%Italy FTSE MIB -0.9% European stocks continue to see a rather mixed mood play out since the US election result. Trump tariffs continue to be a key consideration to the flagging outlook and that is weighing up against stronger earnings and more ECB rate cuts.

The MSTR chart is a perfect example of the importance of market timing. The MSTR stock did nothing for almost two decades! Imagine investing in it early and waiting 20 years to get a return. If you want to have conviction in your ideas, you need to know what moves your stocks and position for

Prior -86.9Economic sentiment 7.4 vs 13.0 expectedPrior 13.1 Poor, poor figures and it once again highlights the negative conditions as well as outlook percolating in the German economy. With Trump tariffs set to come into the picture next year, investors are certainly going to grow more worried about that in the months ahead. This article

Fundamental Overview The puzzling weakness in the US Dollar following Trump’s victory looks more and more like it was just a “sell the fact” reaction. The greenback is now back in the driving seat, and we might also be seeing some pre-positioning into a potentially hot US CPI report tomorrow. At the latest Fed’s decision,

0900 GMT / 0400 US Eastern time: Olli Rehn, Governor of the Bank of Finland, and Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speak on a panel at a conference organised by UBS in London As Governor of the Bank of Finland Rehn is a member of the European Central Bank monetary policy board, the

The word on the street is that it might take place in mid-February but that is also dependent on when chancellor Olaf Scholz will be expected to face a vote of confidence. As things stand, the latter is scheduled for 15 January next year. If that is brought forward, then there is a good chance

Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba announced a US$65 billion (10 trillion yen) plan to boost Japan’s chip and AI industries, aiming for completion by fiscal 2030. In summary: The plan seeks to secure Japan’s chip supply chain amidst global trade tensions, with a focus on mass production of next-gen chips. Key beneficiaries include chip foundry venture

Fundamental Overview TSLA is now up more than 40% since the election day as the bullish momentum in the stock exploded following Trump’s victory. This shouldn’t be surprising given that Elon Musk bet big on Trump and the market is now rewarding it. It looks like the US economy continues not only to do well

Fundamental Overview The puzzling weakness in the US Dollar following Trump’s victory looks more and more like it was just a “sell the fact” reaction. The greenback is now back in the driving seat, and we might also be seeing some pre-positioning into a potentially hot US CPI report tomorrow. At the latest Fed’s decision,

In a big step for decentralized technology, Deutsche Telekom MMS has partnered with Meta Pool as part of its Enterprise Node Operator (ENO) program, becoming the first telecommunications giant to operate a validator node on the NEAR blockchain. This collaboration not only enhances NEAR’s network security and decentralization but also signals a new era of

The pullback in gold continues to run as price is now starting to dip to some interesting levels. The October low of $2,604 is now under scrutiny on the daily chart above with price dipping below the $2,600 mark for the first time since September. It’s a testing time for gold as the post-election period

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bitcoin is soaring while gold slumps. The thing about moves of this magnitude is there are always stories about for ‘why’ this is happening. A fancier term is narrative. There are often multiple, sometimes even conflicting narratives. Here’s my narrative for why gold is falling. The metal saw its biggest price drop in 3+ years:

National Australia Bank monthly survey of business, for October 2024 Business Confidence +5, highest in nearly two years prior -2 Business Conditions +7 prior+7 — Some of the sub indexes: sales +1 to +13 (a strong reading)profitability steady at +5employment intentions -2 to +3growth in input costs slowing to 0.9% q/q, from 1.3% in Septembergrowth

Prior +1.6%HICP +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelimPrior +1.8% No change to the initial estimates but core annual inflation is seen at 2.9%, up from the 2.7% reading in September. So, that’s something to take note of. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Japanese PM Ishiba spoke on Monday. He said the government planned to meet with business and labour union representatives later this month to discuss next year’s annual wage negotiations. Achieving sustained wage increases has been a priority for the government and Bank of Japan. Rising living costs have hit households, weighing on consumption and the

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence survey. 86.7 prior 86.5 ANZ notes: continues to trend upConfidence amongst outright homeowners and those paying off a mortgage reached its highest (4wma) since just after the RBA started lifting the cash rate in 2022 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There are times when the fundamentals and technicals align, the past week has certainly been one of those moments in bitcoin. The election of a crypto-friendly Republican slate combined with the break of a long-term range has been rocket fuel for bitcoin and it’s now above $85,000 for the first time ever. I’ll stand by

Euro area growth is projected to be sluggishSees downside risks to growthWaiting on December projections for a better picture of where we stand So far, he’s not saying anything to jolt market pricing. And that’s the other main consideration for any of their communications before making policy decisions. As such, a 25 bps rate cut

USD/JPY is back at its overnight high above 153.90. Apart from what has already been posted there is no fresh news. I’m wary of intervention type comments with yen weakening rapidly again. 15 minute candles: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fed officials didn’t schedule any speeches today because of the Veteran’s Day holiday, but rest assured, they’re eager to hit the wires again. The next Fed decision is December 18 and the market has priced an 85% chance of a rate cut but beyond that, the market is far less certain. If the Fed wants

Heads up for a barrage of Fed speakers due Tuesday 12 November 2024: 10:00 AM ET / 1500 GMT Fed’s Waller (Governor, Voter) speech (the topic is ‘payments’) 10:15 AM ET / 1515 GMT Fed’s Barkin (Richmond Fed President, non-voter) speech 2:00 PM ET / 1900 GMT Fed’s Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed President, non-voter) 5:00 PM

JP Morgan nominate the yield that will signal rally exhaustion is the 5% level on the 10-year Treasury. “We think that around 5% the impact of bond yields on equity valuations starts to turn, from positive/reflationary one, into the rising concerns over the sustainability of the upcycle and the increasing risk of accidents” The background

Prepare for a Wave of Fed Speakers on November 12, 2024Bullish Forecast: S&P 500 to Hit 10,000 by 2030ICYMI-Russia considering merging its oil companies into world’s 2nd-biggest crude producerBank of England / Bank of Finland speakers combine for a panel discussion TuesdayFears for China on US tariffs are overblownChina plans further cuts to house buying

Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index for November 2024 +5.3% m/m prior +6.2% 94.6 prior 89.8 — Earlier data from Australia today: Australian Consumer Confidence continues to trend up, but still deeply pessimistic at 86.7 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The pair saw a bit of a bounce back the day after the US election result but that was arrested closer to the 1.3000 level alongside the 100-day moving average (red line) last week. Since then, sellers are back in control with price keeping lower again today and poised for a third straight day of

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. And they are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0600 and 1.0625 levels. The pair is being pressured to the downside, touching its lowest levels since April now as the dollar continues to rampage forward. As such, that will put

A note via Bank of America economists on expectations and wariness on US October CPI data due Wednesday at 8.30 am US Eastern time. BoA expect core CPI to show an increase of 0.3% m/m month holding at 3.3% y/ywould be the third consecutive month with a 3.3% core reading BoA say that looking ahead,

Bloomberg reporting, citing unnamed sources. Regulators are developing a proposal that would enable major cities, such as Shanghai and Beijing, to reduce the deed tax for buyers to as low as 1%, down from the current rate of up to 3% At the margin this is a boost for domestic demand. Mainland equities have opened

Bloomberg (gated) interview with Robert Friedland, the founder of Ivanhoe Mines. In brief: China “exports to the US are much lower than they were in the first Trump administration. So they have a lot less sensitivity to tariffs in the US than seven or eight years ago.” “China is still taking a number of steps

The price of WTI crude oil is settling it $68.04. That is down $2.34 or -3.32%. The low price for the day has reached $67.94. The high price was up $70.53. Technically, the price high today stalled against its 200 hour moving average currently moving higher at $70.94. Sellers leaned near the moving average level

Gold has been trending higher for a while now as traders hopped on the risk/safety trade going into the US election. Also higher inflation fear may have conttibuted. Finally, technicals were a help. Looking at the daily chart below, apart from a day or two in February, the price has traded above the 100-day MA

New Zealand Card Retail Sales – for purchases made in New Zealand on debit, credit and store cards. -1.1% y/y in October prior was -5.6% y/y in September For the m/m, +0.6% prior +0.1% ** Card spending data covers around 68% of core retail sales in NZ. Its used as the main retail sales indicator

Goldman Sachs: 3 reasons why GBP set to continue outperforming on crossesTuesday features a full slate of FOMC speakers Markets: Bitcoin up 14% to record $87,200WTI crude down $2.21 to $68.17Bond market closed for holidayGold down $58 to $2625S&P 500 flatRussell 2000 +1.6% US and Canadian newsflow was extremely light on Monday in large part

Justin had the news from the People’s Bank of China here: PBOC governor will maintain yuan exchange rate at a reasonable, balanced level PBOC governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized the Bank will not let the yuan plummet without a fight: Will step up countercyclical adjustment Should resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshoot With

Data via Commonwealth Bank of Australia, one of Australia’s largest four banks. The CommBank Household Spending Insights (HSI) index rose by 0.8% in October, partially offsetting a -0.9% decline in September. Spending Categories: Ten out of twelve categories showed growth, with notable increases in:Household goods: +2.5%, driven by online marketplaces, hardware, and discount stores.Recreation: +1.6%,

More records are reached today: Dow industrial average closes over 44,000 for the first time everS&P index closes above the 6000 level the first time everNASDAQ index closes at a new record level as well For the Russell 2000 it lasts record close was back on November 8, 2021 at 2442.21. The index closed at

Four years ago I wrote about: Why Joe Biden could be the most-bullish US President for oil in history. He was. Between his election and today, the price of crude nearly doubled. Shares of the XLE oil company ETF more than tripled. Of course, my case wasn’t really about Biden, it was more about the

Sell Amazon soon if it climbs to $217: Key levels and strategies for medium-term investors Hello, Itai Levitan here at ForexLive.com 👋, examining why Amazon stock could be a sell around $217. Currently priced just under $209, Amazon might see some upward momentum, but $217 is where profit-takers might jump in. If you’re a medium-term

It is not useful for central banks to lock themselves into forward-looking communicationBetween now and the next decision, there may be changes in conditions that render current communication to be invalidSNB had made “absolutely no commitment” to its next course of actionEverything will depend on conditions when we assess the situation in DecemberExpects franc to

USD/JPY is nearly 100 points hihger on the session. The only items of significance we’ve had today are the leadership vote coming up in parliament: Japan Prime Minister Ishiba faces leadership vote in parliament today Which seems to be dipping into the sordid/farcical: Head of key Japan opposition party admits to extra-marital affair And BOJ

The major European stock indices are closing with solid gains led by the Italy’s FTSE MIB up 1.56%. Both the German DAX and France’s CAC enjoyed gains of 1.2%. The final numbers are showing: German DAX +1.22%France’s CAC, +1.2%UK’s FTSE 100 +0.65%Spain’s Ibex +0.40%Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.56% Looking at benchmark 10 year yields, yields are

Fundamental Overview The price action in copper remains choppy as the market continues to question Chinese economic growth and stimulus. On the other hand, we have also Trump’s victory and fears of a trade war. Copper has been tightly correlated to the Chinese stock market in recent years which just shows the strong dependence of

Gold futures warning: bull flag breakdown points to further downside risk for GC traders 📉 Gold futures (GC) have recently broken out of a significant bull flag formation, and after a strong rally, prices have now pulled back, raising concerns among traders and investors. Let’s dive into the details and what it means for those

USD/CAD trading could be sapped today by holidays but the pair remains dangerously close to a major break. The 35 pip rise today brings the pair to 1.3941 and within striking distance of the 2022 high of 1.3977. It’s chopped around these levels since late October but has been reluctant to break through. The market

The price of crude oil is trading down $-2.20 or -3.12% at $68.20. That’s the lowest level since October 30. The price reached a peak on Thursday at $72.84. That the price briefly above its 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July high at $72.59. However on Friday the price fell below its

Fundamental Overview Crude oil continues to display a rangebound price action as it struggles to break above the key 72.00 resistance. The Trump’s victory might be seen as bearish in the short term for fear of the tariffs and a potential slowdown in global growth as other countries retaliate. It’s worth remembering that in 2016,

Gold and bitcoin have been rallying together all year but they’re headed in different directions today. Bitcoin jumped on the weekend and hit a record $82,500 today but gold is backing off, down $42 to a session low of $2641. Some stops were hit in the past few minutes as it edged through last week’s

The USD is higher in trading today as the Trump trade continues. HIgher USD. Higher stocks. Bonds we don’t know as the bond market is closed for Veterans Day today. Gold is lower but bitcoin in higher. In this video, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective. EURUSD:

The USDCHF has moved higher in trading today and in the process moved above the swing highs from last week and swing area between 0.8772 to 0.8776. That area is now a close risk and bias-defining level. Staying above is more bullish. The move above that area today has led to an increase in momentum

Rumours around: State media reports that China is likely to implement stronger fiscal policies next yearMay actively utilize expanded deficit room. I haven’t found the source for this yet. This’ll be good as we haven’t had a huge rug pull since, errr, Friday: Chinese yuan falls as NPC announcement lacks oomph so far This article

US stock markets opened strongly to the upside, led by a 1.1% rally in the Russell 2000, but there are signs of fatigue setting in. The Nasdaq opened higher but is now down 0.1% as shares of Nvidia fall 1.4%. It’s been a one-way market since the election and Trump trades — like Tesla —

Gold is down another 0.7% today as a firmer dollar and higher yields since the election looks to be weighing. Alternative flows into Trump trades such as Bitcoin and stocks are also arguably in play, with gold not quite favoured as much in that sense. But how are things playing out on the charts? The

Reuters carried the report, ICYMi: Department of Commerce sent a letter to TSMC imposing export restrictions on certain sophisticated chips, of 7 nanometer or more advanced designs, destined for China that power AI accelerator and graphics processing units (GPU), according to a person familiar with the matter. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s largest maker

It’s Veterans Day in the US and Remembrance Day in Canada. It’s one of those holidays that’s not quite a holiday as stock markets will trade normally but the bond market is closed. It’s also one of those holidays where government offices are closed, which means there is no economic data. So it all adds

EURUSD: The EURUSD fell below the triple bottom from three weeks in June between 1.0665 and 1.0670. That opens the door for more downside probing the only levels left from the 2024 trading range was the low from May 1 at 1.0649. Below that, and the lows for the year come in at 1.0600 to

The dollar is trading just a little higher to start the day, seeing slight gains against the euro, pound and franc now. USD/JPY had already been higher since Asia trading here, and is keeping those gains. The pair is up 0.7% to 153.65 currently. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is starting to dip lower to 1.0685 at the

Prior +6.8%New yuan loans ¥0.5 trillionPrior ¥1.59 trillion This brings the year-to-date total for new yuan loans to ¥16.52 trillion, with the October estimate coming in slightly lower than the expected figure of ¥0.7 trillion. Broad money growth is seen rebounding on a year-on-year basis but China will be hoping to translate that to stronger

Today is going to be another synthetic Sunday in terms of data releases as not only we have an empty calendar but we have also the US on holiday. The US stock market will follow regular hours but the bond market will remain closed. The main focus in the markets remains the same: the red

The price of bitcoin is trading to a new fresh session high and is above the $83,000 level. The price is currently trading at $83,050. That’s up about $2625. The high price has reached $83,139. Looking at the hourly chart below, the price extends above a channel high on the run to the upside. That

German DAX futures +0.5%UK FTSE futures +0.5% This comes with US futures also keeping a little higher, up 0.2% currently. For European stocks, they had more of a back and forth week especially the DAX amid the US election results and German government implosion. The push and pull only resulted in the index ending last

Headlines: Dollar stays poised to start the new weekGold pullback might prove to be timely for dip buyersGold Technical Analysis – The Fed might be forced to pause earlier than expectedReminder: It is a partial US market holiday todayWeekly update on interest rate expectationsJapan parliament votes to keep Ishiba as prime ministerPBOC governor will maintain

Fundamental Overview Gold eventually dropped by almost a hundred dollars following Trump’s victory and the red sweep as the market scaled back some more the expected rate cuts in 2025. In fact, right now the market sees basically just two rate cuts in 2025 compared to the Fed’s projections of four. In the bigger picture,

Eurostoxx +0.7%Germany DAX +0.9%France CAC 40 +0.8%UK FTSE +0.6%Spain IBEX +0.7%Italy FTSE MIB +0.9% US futures are also keeping a slightly more optimistic mood for now, continuing the momentum from last week. So, I guess that’s helping. But from a structural perspective, I would still argue that the outlook remains challenging for European indices going

From earlier: Japan Prime Minister Ishiba faces leadership vote in parliament today This comes after the election results last month, which saw Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party lose its majority alongside coalition partner Komeito. Ishiba’s re-election is more or less expected, but his tenure as prime minister now will be filled with many hurdles. He will

New Zealand Inflation Forecast for Q4 2024: 2 yrs 2.12%, jumping from the previous quarter prior 2.03% 1 yr 2.05%, contrasts with a drop from the previous quarter survey prior 2.4% NZD/USD hasn’t really moved on the data. The RBNZ is expected to cut its cash rate again at its November 27 meeting. This article

Commerzbank says the scope for the US dollar to rise further is limited, saying Trump’s main macroeconomic impacting police s will likely be weaker than the bluster: import tariffs may well be much less comprehensive than anticipatedon immigration, there will be some deportations but not enough to generate significant wage pressurewhile Trump’s policies are inflationary,

The Wall Street Journal with the article: To offset the potential hit to the already wobbly Chinese economy, the Xi leadership is considering plans to shower American allies in Europe and Asia with tariff cuts, visa exemptions, Chinese investments and other incentives, according to people close to Beijing’s decision-making. The Journal is gated, but in

There is just one to take note of, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0700 level. The daily lows last week were held by the figure level, so the expiries will add another layer to that as we get the new week underway at least. With the bond market absent to

Japanese lawmakers will vote today, Monday, November 11, 2024, whether Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba remains the country’s Prime Minister. Ishiba called a snap election when he won the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) contest for leadership At that election, the party lost its lower house majority that held since 2012The LDP and coalition partner New Komeito

BTC had a tailwind into the US election, and now after. Trump’s win is being viewed as a major positive. That’s one narrative, there are many others! Update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Bank of Japan Summary is here from earlier: BOJ Summary (Oct.): Yen’s depreciation has significant effects Reuters have a brief recap up, with the headline: BOJ divided on rate hike timing, October summary shows Highlighting: “The Bank should consider further rate hikes after pausing to assess developments in the U.S. economy,” one member was

Will step up countercyclical adjustmentShould resolutely guard against the risk of exchange rate overshootTo strengthen financial oversight oversight comprehensively to prevent systemic risksWill strengthen consistency of macroeconomic policies to form synergy between monetary and financial policies Nothing too major there and the remarks here aren’t going to soothe investors after the disappointing stimulus announcement from

Domestic sight deposits CHF 455.4 bn vs CHF 447.8 bn prior Swiss sight deposits nudged back up in the past week, returning to levels seen thereabouts over the last few months. There hasn’t been much to it in the trend as of late as seen below: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Monday’s economic calendar is light due to a bank holiday in the U.S. for Veterans Day and in Canada for Remembrance Day. On Tuesday, the U.K. will release several key labor market indicators, including the claimant count change, average earnings index m/m and the unemployment rate. Australia will publish its wage price index q/q on

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 20 bps (82% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 82 bps ECB: 28 bps (88% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 138 bps BoE: 5 bps (78% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 64 bps BoC: 39 bps (58%

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand inflation expectations data can move the NZD a little. Keep an eye on the two year horizon. This is the important one for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The bank views this as as a reasonable time frame over which its policy changes impact. The Reserve Bank of New

ECB board member Elizabeth McCaul speaking Monday – on supervisionICYMI: US ordered TSMC to halt shipments to China of chips used in AI applicationsChatter around that China is likely to implement stronger fiscal policies in 2025Reserve Bank of New Zealand inflation expectations survey: 2 yr at 2.12% (prior 2.03%)EUR/USD forecast: Trump policies likely to be

Ireland’s central bank governor and hence European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf spoke on Friday, ICYMI. He emphasized the importance of a careful assessment and maintaining a measured pace of monetary policy easing, suggesting that with the end goal in sight, there’s no need to rush. “It is important to assess conditions

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari spoke with US media, the “Face the Nation” TV show. Signalling a pause at the December meeting is not off the table with these comments on inflation progress. The economy has remained remarkably strong, not all the way home on inflationThe Fed wants to have confidence inflation

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Morgan Stanley categorizes the Trump administration’s macroeconomic policies into three main areas: tariffs, immigration, and fiscal measures. The report anticipates that tariff policies will be among the first to be implemented. MS model an immediate imposition of 10% global tariffs and 60% China tariffs: core inflation in the U.S. could increase by roughly 0.9 percentage

All I have seen on what’s coming from the European Central Bank is this for McCaul: 0810 GMT / 0310 US Eastern time: Keynote speech by ECB board member Elizabeth McCaul at Malta Financial Services Authority’s (MFSA) Annual Banking Supervision Conference in St. Julian’s, Malta — I did post policy related comments earlier from two

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

This will be in observance of Veterans Day. So, the partial market closure will still likely make for quieter trading overall. But for US stocks, investors will be looking to keep carrying the post-election momentum into the new week. It will be a similar case for Canadian markets in observance of Remembrance Day. The TSX

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Indicative rates, not a lot changed from late Friday levels: EUR/USD 1.0712USD/JPY 152.68GBP/USD 1.2915USD/CHF 0.8761USD/CAD 1.3903AUD/USD 0.6584NZD/USD 0.5963 This article was written

Chinese inflation data for October was sneaked out over the weekend: China October CPI +0.3% y/y (expected +0.4%, prior +0.4%), deflation prospect lingers Chinese authorities would like to see the CPI higher. If there was encouragement for them it was in core inflation which moved to +0.2% y/y in October from +0.1% in September. Lest

The Bank made specific mention of forex issues in its statement after the October 30 and 31 meeting: Bank of Japan leaves rates unchanged, as widely expected The “Summary of Opinions” from this meeting highlights the following key points: Economic Developments: Moderate Recovery: Japan’s economy continues to recover moderately, with some areas showing weakness. The

The two major stock markets – the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq – will be open on Monday, November 11, 2024. Bond markets are closed. The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) recommends bond trading closed. FX will trade. — SIFMA is the trade group that represents the bond market. This article

Germany is a (the) key economy in Europe, hence the eye on German politics. On Sunday in German Chancellor Scholz said he would be willing to call a vote of confidence in parliament before Christmas. Scholz had originally proposed this vote be held on January 15. This’ll set up an election, likely in late February

ICYMI, a note from Moody’s late last week on their outlook for US sovereign debt. It flags the ‘Red Sweep’ (note – still awaiting this) as a specific risk: “In the absence of policy measures to help limit fiscal deficits, the federal government’s deteriorating fiscal strength will increasingly weigh on the US sovereign credit profile.”

Robert Holzmann, Governor of Austria’s central bank and a European Central Bank Governing Council member. He tends hawkish. Holzmann spoke in an interview with the Kleine Zeitung newspaper. “As things look at the moment, it is possible (that there will be a cut in December). There is nothing at the moment that would argue against

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: BoJ Summary of Opinions. (US Holiday)Tuesday: UK Labour Market report, Eurozone ZEW, US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, Fed’s SLOOS.Wednesday: Japan PPI, Australia Wage Price Index, US CPI.Thursday: Australia Labour Market report, UK GDP, Eurozone Employment Change and Industrial Production, US PPI, US Jobless Claims, Fed Chair Powell.Friday: Japan GDP, China Industrial

Mon: US Holiday: Veterans Day. BoJ SOO (Oct), BoC SLOS; Norwegian CPI (Oct)Tue: Fed SLOOS, OPEC MOMR; German CPI (Final), ZEW (Nov), UK Unemployment/Weekly Earnings (Sep), US NFIB (Oct)Wed: Riksbank Minutes (Nov), EIA STEO; Australian Wage Price Index (Q3), US CPI (Oct)Thu: ECB Minutes (Oct), Banxico Policy Announcement, IEA OMR; Australian Unemployment Rate (Oct), Swedish

The USDCAD remained (for the most part) this week in a range between 1.38337 on the downside and 1.3958 on the topside. The topside is defined by the high from last Friday and the high from the US election buying. Both those highs took out the August high at 1.3945. Both of those levels are

October 2024 CPI rose 0.3% year-on-year, down from 0.4% in September, and below economists’ median expectations of 0.4%: Shows continued weak consumer demand and keeps deflation concerns active. China faced deflation for four months at the end of 2023. On the PPI: Factory-gate prices -2.9% in October, falling from September’s -2.8% and much worse than

MUFG anticipates a resumption of USD appreciation over the coming months, following a brief pullback post-election. President-elect Trump’s strong mandate and planned policies on trade tariffs, tax cuts, and increased fiscal spending are expected to support higher yields and drive USD strength, particularly over the next 3-6 months. Key Points: Trump Policy Impact: Trump’s policies—tariffs,

We had a red sweep in the US election. That’s an outcome that was consensus bond bearish, on assumed larger deficits, inflationary tariffs and growth-boosting tax cuts. The initial reaction was about what you would expect, with 10-year yields rising 24 bps at the peak on Wednesday. Since then, two things happened: The first is

Canada October employment change +14.5K vs +25.0K expectedUMich November prelim consumer sentiment 73.0 vs 71.0 expectedBaker Hughes oil rigs 479 unchanged on the weekTrump asks Robert Lighthizer to run trade policy againBOE’s Pill: There is scope fore more rate cuts if disinflation continues Markets: S&P 500 up 0.4%WTI crude oil down $1.88 to $70.48Gold down

The USDCHF moved lower to start the trading week but found willing sellers near a key swing area between 0.86078 and 0.8619. The low held on Tuesday ahead of the election results. Those results sent the pair moving sharply higher. The run higher, extended back above the 100-day MA at 0.8667. It moved above the

Closing changes on the day: S&P 500 +0.4% – record closeNasdaq Comp +0.1%DJIA +0.6%Russell 2000 +0.7%Toronto TSX Comp -0.4% Closing changes on the week: S&P 500 +4.7%Nasdaq Comp +5.7%Russell 2000 +8.6%Toronto TSX Comp +2.1% Congratulations to everyone who held stocks through the election. The red sweep no doubt helped by I’ve argued many, many times

An earlier report highlighted John Paulson and Scott Bessent as possible candidates for Treasury Secretary and now Reuters sources say those are the leading candidates. I wrote about Paulson earlier in the week and emphasized that he’s a major gold bull. Now, I don’t know that he’s going to advocate adding to US gold reserve

The S&P 500 index has ticked to 6000 for the first time. The new milestone was reached at 6000.02. The current price is at 5998.02 up 24.87 points or 0.42%.. The index reached 5000 9-months ago on February 8, 2024 Meanwhile the Dow industrial average is up 276.79 points or 0.63% of 44006.82. It has

Be aware. Be prepared. In the videos below, I take a technical look at all the major currencies vs the USD. What is the bias and what would move the bias the other way? Support? Resistance? What are the targets? I look at all the key technicals in play for each of the major currency

MUFG Research added a short EUR/USD to its Trade of the Week portfolio. MUFG is short EUR/USD with a target at 1.0400, and a stop at 1.10. “We are recommending a new short EUR/USD trade recommendation. We expect the EUR to weaken further against the USD in anticipation of Donald Trump imposing higher tariffs on

The weekly Baker Hughes rig count remains unchanged across the board in the current week: Oil rig count 479 vs 479 last weekNat. Gas rig count 102 vs 102 last weekTotal rig count 585 vs 585 last week. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US President-elect Trump has asked Robert Lighthizer to run trade policy once again, according to the FT. The report says Lighthizer had been asked to return to the top trade role even though he had lobbied for a different position, including commerce secretary and Treasury secretary. It’s not clear if he’s accepted the offer but

The EURUSD is ticking lower in the US session and in the process is moving away from a swing area between 1.07609 and 1.07767. Staying below below that area keeps the buyers firmly in control. It is a close risk for sellers/traders. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points yesterday, but the thoughts

Not many markets are pricing in a big risk around Trump tariffs so far as it’s viewed as more of a threat than a real risk. Meanwhile, Germany looks like it will head to an election around the idea of rising deficits or retaining the fiscal brake. At the same time, the German economy continues

The major indices are set to open mixed/lower after the broader S&P and Nasdaq closed at record levels. The indices are up strongly this week as the market cheer the Trump victory along with a Fed that cut rates and is favored to cut in December too. Yields are lower today to start the US

I wrote earlier this week about how the regime in the FX market may change in the years ahead so I’m cautious about drawing intraday conclusions, but the divergence today between rising stocks and a falling AUD/USD is tough to ignore. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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The AUDUSD price action this week was up and down. The close from a week ago was at 0.6558. The current price is at 0.6562. Not a lot of change at the current level. However, in between, the price moved higher into the election. It moved lower with the dollar buying through the election. It

I don’t know what people were thinking with the Chinese market and global growth trades yesterday. They rallied huge yesterday despite Trump winning the election. The hope — evidently — was that Beijing was going to deliver larger stimulus. The thing is, the stimulus has been widely known for awhile. As I highlighted Oct 29:

What do you do if you’re a US importer right now? Particularly if you’re importing goods from China? Stockpile, obviously. The market has so far dismissed the chance of 10% across-the-board US tariffs and 60% tariffs on China but some level of China tariffs is highly likely and you can’t rule anything out with Trump.

The US major indices are trading marginally higher to start the final day of the trading week which included a presidential election and Federal Reserve interest rate cut. The markets are cheering the Pres. Trump victory with solid gains this week. There may be a little slowing today, but still it is not a bad

The European stock indices are closing mostly higher. The exception is the UK FTSE 100 which fell despite the 25 basis point cut by the BOE today. The final numbers are showing: German DAX, +1.72% France’s CAC +0.76%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.32%Spain’s Ibex +0.65%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.12% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The NZDUSD this week found support at the last swing low going back to August 6 at 0.5912, before ignitiing a run to the September high at 0.63778. The subsequent high reached yesterday, extended to another key area. The swing area at 0.60313 to 0.60443 stalled the rally (see red numbered circles). So buyers did

BNP Paribas are forecasting the Bank of Japan will hike rates at their December meeting (18 and 19). says the BoJ will consider uncertaintes surrounding the new administration in the US (Trump will take office in January). says a weaker yen could trigger a hike from the BoJthe analysts expect the yen to weaken further

The post-election trade in the dollar hasn’t been too straightforward over the last two days to say the least. The greenback saw gains abate yesterday but is looking to recover back some ground again in trading today. But even then, it isn’t that convincing with the dollar lagging against the yen and franc on the

To increase monetary policy regulationTo increase precision of monetary policyWill maintain reasonably ample liquidity conditionsTo maintain yuan exchange rate basically stable at a reasonably equilibrium levelWill continue to enrich monetary policy toolkit to improve efficient use of funds There isn’t anything new there in the language since their shift from more “prudent” monetary policy to

Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage rate for the week of November 7 rises to 6.79% from 6.72% last week. That is the highest level since 11. Looking at the chart, the price is back above its 100 week MA for what it is worth at 6.76% What the chart also says is the recent low (and

EURUSD Update Key Points EURUSD moved higher yesterday but faced selling pressure at the 100-hour MA. Breaking above the 100-hour MA and 200-hour MA is needed to confirm a bullish trend. Today’s price action pushed down to a key swing area (1.07609-1.07767) and is now breaking below that area. Stay below is more bearish. .

The S&P 500 is on a three-day winning streak as the market sorts out the election. The index hit a record high at 5983 yesterday but futures point to a 4 point decline at the open. I spoke to Reuters yesterday and highlighted the dynamic: The market is pricing in a return of the first

Guess what happens next? The interviews for this survey concluded before the election but we’ll see a shift in the final number and a bigger one next month. Current conditions 64.4 vs 64.9 priorExpectations 78.5 vs 74.1 prior1-year inflation 2.6% vs 2.7% prior (lowest since Dec. 2020) 5-year inflation 3.1% vs 3.0% prior This indicator

Japan economy minister Akazawa expects private spending to increase with rising wages. His comments come after disappointing spending data earlier: Japanese household spending (September) -1.3% m/m (expected -0.7%) Finance minister Kato spoke earlier, his ‘interventiong’ typse remarks seem to be having a bit of an imp[cat now: Japan finance minister Kato: will take appropriate steps

Looking at wages, margins and labour market tightnessTo a large extent, we will have to look through inflationary impact of government budgetGradual reduction in interest rates is conditionalPolitical developments in the US and Germany do pose some questions Nothing there that hasn’t been said by Bailey already yesterday. There continues to be the emphasis on

Once again, Beijing is finding out that they have a rather tough crowd to please. After the conclusion of the NPC meeting today, officials announced a ¥6 trillion plan to refinance local government debt (added context) as seen here. The figure there is as expected, matching the split of the supposed ¥10 trillion stimulus package

The clearest message the Jerome Powell delivered at the press conference was that he wasn’t going anywhere as Fed chair, no matter what the President asks or tries. That’s great news for markets because we know exactly what we will get with Powell: A dove. The kneejerk on the FOMC statement was hawkish because they

Italy’s Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said the government plans to cut funds that have been set aside to support the country’s automotive industry to avoid funding cars made in China. wants to divert 4.6 billion euros out of the 5.8 billion euros earmarked for the 2025-2030 period to fund the automotive sector “We are not

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar is now lower across the board as the market erased most of the greenback’s gains following Trump’s victory. This has been a puzzling reaction as Trump’s policies are likely to spur growth and potentially end the Fed’s easing cycle earlier than expected. We can argue that the market was already

November 07, 2024 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EST Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made progress toward the

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar is now lower across the board as the market erased most of the greenback’s gains following Trump’s victory. This has been a puzzling reaction as Trump’s policies are likely to spur growth and potentially end the Fed’s easing cycle earlier than expected. We can argue that the market was already

Prior month +46.7KUnemployment rate 6.5%vs 6.6% expected (prior 6.5%)Full-time employment +25.6K vs +112.0K priorPart-time employment -11.2K vs -65.3K priorParticipation rate 64.8% vs 64.9% priorAverage hourly wages y/y 4.9% vs 4.5% priorPrivate sector employment +20.5K vs +61K priorPublic sector employment -17.2K vs -24K prior Ahead of the data, the market was pricing in a 60% chance

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. And again, they are all for EUR/USD layered in between 1.0750 through to 1.0800. Post-election sentiment is still the name of the game in driving FX flows now, so the expiries are just secondary drivers alongside everything else at

These numbers for Wednesday’s trade, showing 12 spot bitcoin ETFs raked in a combined $621.9 million Fidelity’s FBTC, securing $308.77 millionArk Invest’s and 21shares’ ARKB followed closely with $127 million Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust added $108.81 million Cumulative net inflows since Jan. 11 to $24.12 billion. Info via here, with more info. This article was

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar is now lower across the board as the market erased most of the greenback’s gains following Trump’s victory. This has been a puzzling reaction as Trump’s policies are likely to spur growth and potentially end the Fed’s easing cycle earlier than expected. We can argue that the market was already

Silver futures warning: bear flag signals potential 17% drop ahead ⚠️ Traders and investors in silver futures, silver-related ETFs, and XAG/USD should keep a close watch as silver faces a potential breakdown, highlighted in the 4-hour chart. After a period of consolidation within an upward channel (marked in orange), silver has breached this structure, forming

Jerome Powell will remain Fed chair until May 2026, when his term ends. Trump likes to rant about the Federal Reserve but he’s powerless to remove Powell anyway. There is some belief he could demote him to Fed Governor but that wouldn’t take away his vote. Current market pricing suggests a cut today at 68%

On the revision, Barclays cites the BOE’s more cautious tone that emphasised uncertainty and gradual policy moves. “The main messaging from the press conference was repeated emphasis on the extent of uncertainty at the current juncture: uncertainty around the impact of the fiscal package; uncertainty on the current state of the labour market.” Adding that

Lower tier data features on the data agenda for the session ahead. Asian markets will digest the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision and Powell’s presser though, so there should be some movement at least. If its subdued, its just an interlude to an active four years coming up! Y’all set for four years of

Headlines: The post-election tussle continues to play outUSD/JPY Technical Analysis – Interesting reversal in the US DollarChinese yuan falls as NPC announcement lacks oomph so farChina’s top lawmakers approve plan to swap local government debtPBOC says will continue with supportive monetary policyFrance September trade balance -€8.27 billion vs -€7.37 billion priorBarclays now sees the Fed

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar is now lower across the board as the market erased most of the greenback’s gains following Trump’s victory. This has been a puzzling reaction as Trump’s policies are likely to spur growth and potentially end the Fed’s easing cycle earlier than expected. We can argue that the market was already

1110 GMT / 0610 US Eastern time: Panel participation by Toni Gravelle, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada at European Central Bank Conference on Money Markets. Earlier this week from the BoC: BOC Meeting minutes: BOC felt upside pressure on inflation will continue to decline This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -€7.37 billion; revised to -€7.72 billion The French trade deficit grew slightly in September as exports fell by 1.4% while imports fell by just 0.2% on the month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

This relates to this matter as posted earlier in the week: China are reportedly reviewing a bill to raise local government debt ceilings It is essentially just a left pocket, right pocket move to switch China’s “hidden debt” to be back on the balance sheet. This so that Beijing can easier and better help local

We’ve watched the run-up in bond rates and they’re nowhere near a year ago. We will see where they settleWe’ve all read decompositions on why yields have moved up but we think they’re about fewer downside risks and better growth (not inflation)We don’t guess, speculate or assume on fiscal policyData has been stronger than expected

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar is now lower across the board as the market erased most of the greenback’s gains following Trump’s victory. This has been a puzzling reaction as Trump’s policies are likely to spur growth and potentially end the Fed’s easing cycle earlier than expected. We can argue that the market was already

DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach spoke with CNBC (may be gated). His comments are straightforward macroeconomics: if the Republicans ends up controlling the House … the higher government spending that would result would require more borrowing through Treasury issuance, putting upward pressure on bond yields“If the House goes to Republicans, there’s going to be a

The NASDAQ index has moved to a new session high and currently trades up 300 points on the day at 19284. The The high reached 19285.95. The press conference ended with the index at 19280. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.1%France CAC 40 +0.2%UK FTSE +0.1%Spain IBEX flatItaly FTSE MIB -0.1% German stocks have cooled off after the gains yesterday and the overall mood now is more tepid if anything else. This comes with US futures also keeping flattish but it is still early in the day. Investors will look to Wall

The NZDUSD moved above its 100 and 200 converged hourly MAs earlier today after breaking below it yesterday and staying below it on the corrective moves. That gave the buyers more confidence and the price moved higher. The run to the upside extended after breaking above its 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at

The European session is going to be empty on the data front with just a couple of low tier data releases. In the American session, the highlights will be the Canadian labour market data and the US UMich consumer sentiment report. 13:30 GMT/08:30 ET – Canada October Labour Market report The Canadian Labour Market report

At the same time, officials are also expected to present additional fiscal stimulus measures to bolster the economy. From earlier: Will we get anything from China today? Just be mindful that this will come after the close for Chinese equities. The Shanghai Composite is down 0.8% with the CSI 300 index down 1.2% so far

The Shanghai Composite index closes the day down 0.5% and CSI 300 index down 1.0%. But on the week itself, both indices secured gains of roughly 5.5% – largely boosted by the strong buying yesterday. Chinese officials are slated to announce stimulus measures at around 0800 GMT as seen here next. However, the question remains

Japanese household spending -1.3% m/m expected -0.7%, prior +2.0% -1.1% y/y expected -2.1%, prior -1.9% Not encouraging for a BoJ rate hike. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

In addition, Powell was what he always is: A dove. Closing changes: S&P 500 +0.7%Nasdaq Comp +1.5%DJIA flatRussell 2000 -0.2%Toronto TSX Comp +0.8% The market is convincing itself “he didn’t mean it” on tariffs and the strongest evidence for that was the 5% rally in China ETFs today. This article was written by Adam Button

Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada Toni Gravelle speaking on FridayJapan economy minister Akazawa expects private spending to increase with rising wagesChinese inflation data will be published over the weekendJapan finance minister Kato: will take appropriate steps on excess FX movesJapan fin min Kato says will closely monitor impact of Trump’s policies on Japan’s

As mentioned earlier in the week here, the IMF estimates that China’s “hidden debt” to be above ¥60 trillion as of last year. But Chinese officials are now out saying that they only have ¥14.3 trillion in “hidden debt” as of the same period. It’s a stark contrast in terms of the number as the

September 18November 07, 2024 Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement For release at 2:00 p.m. EST Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gainsSince earlier in the year, labor market conditions have slowedgenerally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made further

Swiss National Bank chair Schlegel was speaking at an event in Brugg, Switzerland, on Thursday. physical cash to retain an important role in the Swiss payments systemvirtual currencies “remain a niche phenomenon”strong fluctuation in values that meant they were not practical for paymentsrequired a huge amount of energywere also linked to illegal activities and were

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is Hong Kong’s central bank. The HKD trades in a band linked to the US dollar prescribed by the HKMA. You can see the limits of the band in the chart below. – The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) often adjusts its interest rates in line with the U.S. Federal

The FOMC statement is due out at the top of the hour and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference afterwards. A 25 basis point rate cut to a range of 4.50-4.75% is assured but what comes next isn’t so the market will be looking for hints. In all likelihood, it will be

UBS analysts (at UBS Global Wealth Management) says GBP will be a beneficiary of the Bank of England only cutting rates gradually. cautious Bank of England will support sterlingsees GBP/USD higher in the months ahead UBS remarks after the Bank of England cut its Bank rate on Thursday but sounded less dowvish on future rate

That follows the developments this week with Trump being elected US president and also the FOMC meeting yesterday. At the balance, Fed chair Powell was a little dovish but he did keep stressing on caution in how they will proceed on policy going into next year. A 25 bps move in December seems to be

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Due at 0130 GMT on Saturday, November 9, 2024: 2130 US Eastern time on Friday, November 8 China’s CPI for October: expected -0.1% m/m, prior 0.0%expected +0.4% y/y, prior +0.4% PPI: expected -2.5% y/y, prior -2.8%expected not as negative as in September due to raw material metals having risen in October, along with the global

German DAX futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures +0.2% This comes with US futures also cooling off, with S&P 500 futures seen flat currently. German stocks were the standout yesterday as investors were hoping that a potential change of government could help to revive the country’s economic plight. But again, Trump tariffs are still a key consideration

The Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q4 rose to 2.5% from 2.4% last. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 2.5 percent on November 7, up from 2.4 percent on November 5. After this morning’s wholesale trade release from

From last week: China mulls approving fresh fiscal package worth over ¥10 trillion next week The details of the leaked stimulus above were a little underwhelming to say the least. I mean, a ¥4 trillion split to special-purpose bonds just for idle land and property purchases? Not exactly all too convincing. The other ¥6 trillion

Japan’s Ministry of Finance with the info after FX reserves down to US$1.239 tln at the end of ocot: prior 1.255 tln USD USD/JPY selling intervention on July 11 was 3.1678 tln yen worth USD/JPY selling intervention on July 12 was 2.367 tln yen worth I highlighted July 11 for reference. Y’all remember the officials

Yuichiro Tamaki is a Japanese politician and the leader of the Democratic Party For the People Comment from him on the wires: Trump policies can intensify inflation in the US, push up the USD vs. the yen *** So can Tamaki’s comments by the look of it 😉 Tamaki’s comment fits with the expectations that

Bowman dissented at the FOMC prior to this week’s. No dissent at yesterday’s meeting though. 1600 GMT / 1100 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman participates in conversation on banking topics before the University of Mississippi School of Business Banking and Finance Symposium1930 GMT / 1430 US Eastern time: (PRE-RECORDED) Federal Reserve

Powell has been careful to avoid politics in the post-election press conference but was asked if he would leave if Trump wanted him out and he said, coldly “no”. Then he was asked if he could legally be removed and again said “no” without further commenting. It was a strong message. This article was written

JP Morgan like BTC through to year end: “We continue to see room for the Trump trade to reverberate over the coming eight weeks or so in a similar fashion to 2016,” And beyond: “Trump policies are likely to be supportive of both into 2025” JPM say gold and BTC will benefit from a “debasement

Japan finance minister Kato: will take appropriate steps on excess FX moves Won’t comment on forex levels.Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals.Will take appropriate steps on excess moves.Have seen one-sided and drastic moves on the currency market.Will closely monitor currency moves, including those driven by speculators with utmost sense of urgency.

This video outlines the key technical levels in play and why after the FOMC rate decision. EURUSD 0:45USDJPY 1:40GBPUSD 2:29USDCHF 3:15USDCAD 4:15AUDUSD 5:13 Looking at the yields, before the Fed decision: 2 year 4.205%, -6.2 basis points5 year 4.118%, -8.9 basis point10 year 4.339%, minus a .7 basis points30-year 4.546%, -5.4 basis points Current yields

The USDJPY is lower and in the process is down testing the 100/200 hour MAs at 152.89. Looking at the hourly chart, the 100 hour MA has been a barometer for support on the upside and resistance on the corrective move lower going into the election. Yesterday, the price action saw the price run above

Japan finance minister Kato: will closely monitor impact of Trump’s policies on Japan’s economy We had a politician in Japan posting a warning earlier: Japan DPP head says Trump policies can intensify inflation, push USD/JPY higher There are some arguments that Trump’s impact on the yen (weaker seems to be the favoured expectation) cold prompt

Discover how to start trading live with a small account in forex so that you can profit as soon as possible with as little money as possible based on your trading style The post How To Trade Forex With A Small Trading Account appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

South Korea’s finance minister, Choi Sang-mok, spoke at a meeting with top economic and financial policymakers to review the implications of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting outcome. said authorities will respond in a timely manner if volatility heightens excessivelygovernment’s 24-hour monitoring system, which had been run to monitor the Middle East situation, would be

JP Morgan taking time out from dissecting the Fed decision! JPM say the participation of retail investors in markets after the US election surged: +5% from the same time in 2020 JPM noted demand for: broad market ETFsleveraged bull techBitcoin ETFsTSLAPLTR And selling of GLD. Pat on the back for all involved! So far, anyway.

Rekt Brands Inc. (Rekt), the parent company behind the Rektguy NFT project, Rekt Drinks, and the Rekt brand intellectual property, is excited to announce the completion of a $1.5 million seed funding round. Funded exclusively by angel investors and the community—without institutional venture capital—this achievement highlights the support Rekt received from its loyal and growing

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Noted hurricane and strike effects on jobs in NovemberWage growth has easedUnemployment has edged down in past 3 months, remains lowLabor market conditions now less tight than just before pandemic, notes it’s not a source of significant inflation pressuresOverall inflation has moved much closer to goalCore inflation remains somewhat elevatedWe are committed to maintaining economy’s

The ECB Stournaras is on the wires saying: If Trump does what he says on tariffs, it will have a negative impact on European economy. The EURUSD has corrected higher in trading today, and in the process moved up to a high price of 1.0824. That got within about 8 pips of its near converged

US equity close: Red wave in politics, green wave in marketsPowell delivered another dovish message and the market isn’t doubting himPowell coldly says he won’t quit if asked by TrumpWhat are the update technical levels in play as Powell works through press conferencePowell Q&A: We’re not at the stage where bond rates need to be

Expect Powell to dodge questions about politics but there are some thorny issues around stronger growth that could trip him up. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

A 25 basis point rate cut was fully priced inThe Fed removes the line “the Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent” Prior statement repeats that economic activity “has continued to expand at a solid pace”On employment says “Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has moved up

E-mini S&P futures have extended to the 6000 level for the first time in history. That’s up around 42 points or 0.72%. The 500 is up 0.67% also trading at a new record at 5969.20 currently. The NASDAQ index is up 250 points or 1.32% at 19233.65. It too is trading at a new all-time

It’s been a while but finally we can reuse the picture above again. Good times. With all the focus on the US election this week, let’s not forget that we also do have key central bank policy decisions to work through. And that will come via the BOE and Fed later today. Both central banks

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.7%France CAC 40 flatUK FTSE +0.2%Spain IBEX +0.3%Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% In Germany, politics are also a consideration now after Scholz dismissed finance minister Lindner and that has led to the dissolution of the ruling coalition. Are we going to see another far-right push there as has been the case across the

USD/JPY tumblingChina Airlines close to split order for 20 passenger jets between Airbus and Boeing.There is a deluge of European Central Bank speakers Thursday – Lane (3 spots!), SchnabelAUD and NZD continue to retrace yesterday’s lossesChina October dollar denominated exports +12.7% y/y & imports -2.3%China’s Xi Jinping congratulates Trump on election victoryChina January – October

Stock market analysis as SPX eyes 6000: Will the S&P 500 break through key resistance? 🚀 The S&P 500 (SPX) is on a steady climb, testing a critical resistance level around 5936. Traders and investors are abuzz, speculating whether this market heavyweight will reach the monumental 6000 mark—a round number packed with liquidity and significant

Headlines: Dollar gains cool off for the time beingWeekly update on interest rate expectationsBOE cuts bank rate by 25 bps to 4.75%, as expectedBOE governor Bailey: We still need to see services inflation to come down more broadlyFed to cut interest rates at a quarterly pace after December – JP MorganDeutsche Bank now sees base

The NASDAQ index is leading the way with a gain of 1.3%, up 247 points or 19231.50. Looking at the hourly chart, the price has moved above a channel trendline that comes across at 19130.21. That increases the bullish bias. There is no reason to sell unless the price were to move back below that

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq tested the all-time high following Trump’s victory and the red sweep as the market started to look forward to bullish drivers like tax cuts and deregulation. One potential bearish reason people are looking at is rising Treasury yields. That’s generally bearish when the Fed is tightening though as the market looks

FOMC day. Just two days after the election, Fed will weigh in when they their interest-rate decision at 2 PM ET. The expectations are for a 25 basis point cut to 4.5% to 4.75% target as the Fed continues into recalibration. What will be of more interest to the market is Fed chair Powell weighs

The AUDUSD is moving higher today and technically made some positive strides Earlier today, the price moved above its 200-day moving average near 0.66284. It also moved above a swing area near that level (see green numbered circles on the chart above). That break turned sellers into buyers. You can see it more clearly on

Get ready to turn down the political noise and turn up the Fed noise. The FOMC decision is at 2 pm ET and Powell will hold a press conference 30 minutes later. A cut is coming but the big question is how the Fed will react to the 85 bps rise in Treasury yields since

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar rallied across the board yesterday as Trump got elected President of the US. The Republicans won also the Senate and the House giving us a red sweep and therefore high chances of tax cuts. This should be the most bullish scenario for the greenback as it should lead to higher

Abrdn plc (formerly Standard Life Aberdeen plc) is a United Kingdom-based investment company. Analyst comments on the implications of Trump’s win: expected to lead to a more relaxed regulatory environment, increased trade tariffs, and possible repeals of parts of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).Markets were already factoring in a potential Trump win, but a Republican

Trump campaigned on promises of across the board 10 to 20% tariffs on imports, but of 60% and over on those from China./ JP Morgan cite “procedural reasons” for their assessment that the chances of a 10% across-the-board tariff in 2025 are low. However, they say that China will face significantly higher tariffs. Time to

Prior 5.00%Bank rate vote 8-1 vs 7-2 expected (Mann dissented to keep bank rate at 5.00%)There has been continued progress in disinflationBut domestic inflationary pressures are resolving more slowlyMost of the remaining persistence in inflation may dissipate quicklyPay and price-setting dynamics continue to normalise following the unwinding of the global shocksWe need to make sure

The USDCAD has erased the declines from this week after the break to new 2024 highs on Friday failed. The low price yesterday and into today stalled just ahead of a support target at 1.3813 (the low reached 1.3817). The election results started the run back to the upside and that momentum has moved up

Is”the bark is worse than the bite” on tariffs? S&P global is out saying: Tariffs could increase US inflation and be a drag on US growth.Unlikely that Pres. Trump imposes a 10% blanket tariff and 60% tariff on Chinese goods Policy impacting deficits and that could affect US sovereign credit rating.Projections assume deficit will remain

Details of the BOE monthly Decision Maker Panel for October Year-ahead Own-price Inflation: Remained unchanged at 3.5% in the three months to October.Firms expect output price inflation to decrease by 0.5 percentage points over the next 12 months. CPI Inflation: Perceived CPI inflation was 2.7% in the three months to October, unchanged from the previous

Impossible to say where the next shock for the financial system will come from Well, at least they’re already starting to acknowledge the risks of tariffs that will come about when Trump takes office next year. But we’ll have to wait and see to gauge the impact as a whole. This article was written by

Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau is a member of the European Central Bank Governing Council, the monetary policy setting board of the Bank. He spoke on Wednesday. “The American election must sound a wakeup call for Europe”Trump’s policy moves had to be seen, but a risk his plans could lead to a

Good morning. The Bank of England cut rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% to kickstart the US session. The vote was 8-1 vote with Catherine Mann as the only member who voted to keep rates unchanged. Governor Andrew Bailey highlighted the ongoing progress in disinflation but noted that domestic inflationary pressures are easing at

Prior week initial jobless claims revised to 218K vs 216Kinitial jobless claims 221K vs 221K estimate4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 227.25K vs 237.0K last week.Prior week of continuing claims 1.862M revised to 1.853MContinuing claims 1,892M vs 1.875M est4-week moving average of continuing claims 1.876M vs 1.867M last weekThe largest increases in initial claims

The House has been looking like it would stay under Republican control for awhile but I think there is a big difference to a 1-2 seat majority compared to a larger buffer. A tiny margin runs the risk that a Congressman grandstands or flips. The latest forecast from Decision Desk has shifted a couple more

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 43 bps (100% probability of rate cut at today’s decision) 2025: 106 bps ECB: 27 bps (90% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 133 bps BoE: 31 bps (94% probability of rate cut at today’s decision) 2025: 87 bps BoC: 36 bps (55% probability of 25 bps

Prior was +0.4% (revised to +2.4%)Productivity +2.2% vs +2.3% expectedPrior productivity +2.5% (revised to +2.1%) In the long-run, productivity is the most-important predictor of an economy but in the short run, it’s nearly impossible to measure. Within this data, the unit labor cost number is certainly an inflationary one. This article was written by Adam

The USD is moving lower after the run higher yesterday after the US election. Yields which moved sharply higher are lower today and helping the bias. In the above video, I take a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What levels are in play? What is the bias in the short term? What

The major US indices are trading higher for the second consecutive day after the President Trump victory gives investors hope for more growth, more stimulus. The Dow industrial average which led the way yesterday however is trading above or below unchanged. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow industrial average down -12 points or

Prior month +0.2%US wholesale inventories (revised) -0.2% versus -0.1% estimate (and preliminary)Wholesale sales +0.3% versus positive 0.2% estimate Sales September 2024 sales for merchant wholesalers (excluding manufacturers’ sales branches and offices) reached $674.8 billion.Increased by 0.3% from the revised August level.Decreased by 0.4% compared to September 2023.July to August 2024 percent change was revised:From a

The topic of the Phil Lane’s speech is “Public debt: Past lessons, future challenges” which is topical given that Germany is angling to have an election on removing the debt break. The presentation has been published and argues: Sovereign spread changes have significant impact on domestic lending conditionsCountries with weak bank capital ratios see stronger

The disinflation process is faster than expectedBut we still need services inflation to come down more broadlyThere could be lingering persistence in wage inflation pressures beyond the forecast This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The groundwork is being laid by European leaders to shift towards larger deficit spending. Yesterday, German Chancellor Scholz signalled a plan to have an election based on removing the fiscal break and elsewhere, politicians aren’t shifting back to pre-covid norms. There is pushback though as ECB chief economist Phil Lane made a presentation today warning

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Don’t expect interest rates to go back to very low levels unless there is some completely unknown shockWe will see where market interest rates are at the December meeting and judge policy accordinglyWe do have to watch very carefully the fragmentation of the world economyThere are a lot of risks related to that but we

Japan’s financial watchdog looks to put legal curbs in place to prevent foreign cryptocurrency exchanges from taking domestic assets overseas. This is intended to protect traders on the ‘exchanges’ (LOL, they are websites) Nikkei (gated) with the report. Assets have surged in the past day or so, of course: This article was written by Eamonn

Reuters Japan Corporate Survey In brief: Over half of Japanese firms plan to raise wages by 3% or more for the next business year, according to a Reuters survey.42% of firms expect wage hikes between 3% and 5%, while 9% foresee increases of 5% to 7%.41% anticipate wage increases between 1% and 3%.Survey conducted by

Well, that’s some contrast to the call by Nomura here which forecasts the Fed to cut by just once in 2025. But I guess the wide range of differing views highlights the uncertain nature of the Fed outlook now that Trump is president. As for markets, traders are pricing in ~89 bps of rate cuts

The greenback is seeing some light retracements across the board today, though the antipodeans are posting a solid rebound so far on the day. AUD/USD is up 0.8% to 0.6620 and is moving closer back towards a test of its 200-day moving average (blue line) of 0.6628. There’s not much catalysts in play at the

The market curve is what it isWe’ve used the term “gradual” for some time already nowBut will not go beyond what the term may mean as there is still a lot of uncertaintyIt is good news that inflation is well below where they thought it would be a year agoBut we are still in a

Chinese trade data YTD (January – October) USD denominated: exports +5.7% y/yimports +1.7% y/y Trade balance (January – October) is a surplus of 785.27bn USD. I haven’t yet spotted October alone data. — Trump has said he’ll be slamming China with 60% or more tariffs. — As an aside, mainland China and Hong Kong equity

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

In the European session the highlight will be the BoE rate decision where the central bank is expected to cut by 25 bps. In the American session, we get the US Jobless Claims and the FOMC rate decision. 12:00 GMT/07:00 ET – BoE Rate Decision The BoE is expected to cut interest rates by 25

Is AMD stock a buy or sell? key technical analysis and forecast supporting to sell it 🔍 When it comes to deciding whether AMD stock is a buy or sell, recent price action and technical indicators offer valuable insights. Currently, AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) is showing signs of weakness as it fails to hold within

Harris giving her concession speech after the election. If you are interested: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Our companies need support immediately, anybody who refuses that is acting irresponsiblyGermany will have to take responsibility and help Europe hold togetherAfter US elections we need to show we could be relied onBut finance minister Lindner showed no willingness to implement any of our proposalsOf all the rich democracies, we have by far the lowest

China stocks fall again at open as investors brace for Trump presidency China and Hong Kong stocks started lower on Thursday – info via Reuters. Investors are wary of heightened tensions around security and trade in a second Donald Trump presidency. On the other hand, the Chinese leadership meeting, the National People’s Congress Standing Committee,

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Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 soared into a new all-time high following Trump’s victory and the red sweep as the market started to look forward to bullish drivers like tax cuts and deregulation. One potential bearish reason people are looking at is rising Treasury yields. That’s generally bearish when the Fed is tightening though as

The slide for imports is not encouraging. The export pipeline looks like its swelling ahead of the US expected swinging tariffs. Exports have been a bright spot for the economy struggling with weak domestic demand and a seemingly never-ending property market debt crisis. YTD figures are here from earlier: China January – October dollar denominated

Last week, the tech giants — Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta — released their quarterly reports, which showed steady revenue and profit growth across the board, pretty much in line with previous ones. However, except for the results of Jeff Bezos’ company and Amazon stock, the investors were not “fully satisfied.” Mixed forecasts for

Lane and Schnabel the most likely to spin out some market-relevant comments. Times below are GMT/US Eastern time: 0730/0230 ECB chief economist Philip Lane and Bank of Greece governor Yannis Stournaras will address a conference in Athens on “Public Debt, Past Lessons, Future Challenges” organised by Bank of Greece 0810/0310 Opening remarks by ECB Board

The most-bizarre reaction to the Trump win for me was the initial rally in the DAX. If the US is coming with tariffs, that’s a big problem for Germany’s export sector, in particular. The market seems to have figured it out as the rally has now turned into a 0.3% decline. Here is the intraday

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Japan wages data shows that ‘real’ wages, ie after adjustment for inflating prices, fell in September. September Labour Cash Earnings+2.8% y/y expected +3.0%, prior +2.8% Real Cash Earnings -0.1% y/y, falling for the second month in a row expected +0.1%, prior –0.8% — Real wages are a critical indicator of consumer purchasing power in Japan,

The NZDUSD moved higher into the Election Day, but found willing sellers near the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart. As the election results started to come in, the buyers turned to sellers. ON the way lower, the price fell below the 100/200 hour MAs near 0.5975 and fell below the low from last

Cryptocurrency payments have made financial transactions faster and safer. Forex brokers that integrate a cryptocurrency payment gateway can provide these advantages and more for their users. Crypto payment integration results in real-time transaction settlement, lower fees, and improved fraud prevention. These benefits increase forex brokers’ operational efficiency, help them attract a global clientele, and remove

Goldman Sachs is saying that they keep its 12 month target for the S&P at 6300. The high price today reached 5907. A move to the target would imply a gain of 5.08% from the high price today. Goldman says that downside risks are the prospect of a trade conflict. On the positive side is

Prior was +5474Crude oil inventories +2149K vs +1103K expGasoline inventories +412K vs -878K expDistillates inventories +2947K vs -1137K expRefinery utilization +1.4% versus expectations of +0.3% Private inventory data released late yesterday: Crude +1643KGasoline -2019KDistillates -1478K Today’s report is bearish for crude but ahead of the report, it had made an impressive comeback. This article was

Prior +0.2%; revised to +1.1% Euro area retail sales grew by more than expected and that is on top of a sharp revision higher to the August figure. Looking at the details, food sales were down 0.4% but non-food store retail sales were up 1.1% with automotive fuel store sales up 0.2% on the month.

The AUDUSD fell ahead of the election results and in the process moved to the lowest level since August 8 at 0.6506 and bounced. The subsequent move higher taken the price toward the midpoint of the day’s trading range. The price has also moved back toward the converged 100 and 200-hour MAs near 0.6586. Those

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar rallied across the board yesterday as Trump got elected President of the US. The Republicans won also the Senate and the House giving us a red sweep and therefore high chances of tax cuts. This should be the most bullish scenario for the greenback as it should lead to higher

German construction activity slumped further in October, with both activity and new orders declining at a quicker pace. Adding to that is another notable round of retrenchment, highlighting rougher employment conditions. All main sectors showed a decline in activity, with housing once again being the worst performer. HCOB notes that: “The downturn in Germany’s construction

Following his win in Pennsylvania and earlier victories in other key battleground states in Georgia and North Carolina, Republican candidate Donald Trump took to the stage shortly after in Palm Beach, Florida. Trump is set to become the 47th President of the United States (US) as he took an early victory lap on stage and

China’s Xi Jinping congratulates Trump on election victory hopes that the two sides will respect each other, coexist peacefully and achieve win-win cooperationthe international community expects that both countries will respect each other, coexist peacefully, and achieve win-win cooperationboth sides should strengthen dialogueUS-China cooperation is a long-term goalUrges China, US to properly manage differences These

Analysts at MUFG say sterling is less vulnerable to tariffs than the currencies of other G10 countries. They cite the predominance of UK services and exports to the US over goods. On the Bank of England later today: expect a rate cut GBP could benefit if the BoE pauses in DecemberBOE needs to be cognizant

Info via Reuters: Taiwan’s China Airlines is close to deciding a multi-billion-dollar order for long-distance passenger jets, potentially split between Airbus and Boeing.The order for freighters is still under consideration, influenced partly by the U.S. presidential election outcome.The decision follows Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency, with Taiwan aiming to maintain strong U.S. ties.The

They did the same yesterday. They won’t stop a rampant US dollar, but they’ll try to slow it. USD/CNH update: Before you harangue me, yes I am aware that the offshore yuan, CNH, is different to the onshore yuan, CNY. Feel free to post a USD/CNY chart in the comments. This article was written by

The firm had previously penciled in the ECB to cut interest rates to 2.25% as their base case. So, this is 75 bps lower than that. With potential Trump tariffs on the cards, that’s a key factor that could weigh on the euro area economy next year. So, that in turn creates downside risks to

AUD and Kiwi$ were hit on the surge of USD strength on Trump’s election. The drop has continued to be unwound today: No resistance showing on these charts, check for near highs earlier this week at least initially This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

German DAX futures +0.4%UK FTSE futures +0.4% This has that familiar ring to it, just like yesterday. European futures might be looking to chase the mood in US stocks again now but that turned sour when we got to US trading yesterday. With Trump in charge now, tariffs on the EU – particularly Germany –

A key beneficiary of the surge in crypto as Trum p won the election. BTC rose, ETH the same. Bids right across the complex. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There are a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. They are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0725 and 1.0775 levels. To some degree, the expiries might just lock price action in between these levels but it’s all about post-election sentiment now. And momentum flows will be the key driver of the moves,

George Saravalos at Deutsche Bank makes two spectacular points in the aftermath of the election. 1) Beware regime shifts He’s not talking about the political regime shift here, he’s talking about a regime shift in markets in terms of how cross-asset classes interact. “Global risk assets are taking their cue from US equities and generally

1400 GMT / 0900 Eastern time: Opening remarks by Rhys Mendes, Deputy Governor of Bank of Canada at The John Kuszczak Memorial Lecture From the site: Sounds complicated. Link to the webinar is here. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.3% House prices in the UK nudged higher again, keeping the positive momentum in recent months. Halifax notes that: “That house prices have reached these heights again in the current economic climate may come as a surprise to many, but perhaps more noteworthy is that they didn’t fall very far in the first place..

Prior €22.5 billion Slight delay in the release by the source. The German trade balance narrowed in September with exports falling by 1.7% on the month while imports grew by 2.1% on the month. The former continues to present a challenging picture for the German economy and even more so now that Trump is in

Will strengthen communication with marketsTo steadily promote opening up of China’s financial services industry and marketsWill promote a sustained economic recovery The headlines noted that he provided an “in-depth explanation” of China’s current monetary policy stance and considerations to the central bank’s framework to said institutions. But from the remarks above, it is just more

Prior +2.9% Slight delay in the release by the source. After a modest showing in the month before, German industrial output slumped again in September. This is part of the Q3 picture though, so it isn’t too relevant at this stage. And even more so now that the German economy will have to look to

The EURUSD moved higher before the results of the election started to trickle in. The price moved up to test the 100-day MA and the 38.2% of the move down from the September high. The price moved lower as results came in, first breaking below the 200-day MA at 1.08687 and then the 100-bar MA

Some JPY strength has taken USD/JPY down sharply towards 154.00. No obvious immediate catalyst. It topped above 154.70 a good few hours ago and dribbled down to trade around 154.40/50 before its fall now. The USD is weaker almost across the board today. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Atsushi Mimura is Japan’s vice finance minister for international affairs, AKA ‘top currency diplomat’. Japan’s finance ministry is the relevant authority in Japan for ordering intervention in the JPY. Mimura has taken over from Kanda in charge of the relevant department, so it’s him who would be directing Bank of Japan intervention, should it come

Gold is down $78 today to $2666 on the combination of higher Treasure yields and a stronger US dollar following the election. There is also some element of ‘sell the fact’ and relief that we don’t have a contested, uncertain result. It’s a 2.8% daily drop but it’s only a moderate setback in this year’s

Wages data from Japan will be eyed to give a clue on Bank of Japan rate hilkes ahead. The previous month’s data for these were a little disappointing for the Bank: Disappointing data on wages … not as yen positive as it could be Since that data we’ve had Japanese elections with political push back

Nomura anticipates that the Fed will respond cautiously to a Trump administration focused on tariffs and tax policies, which could be inflationary and growth-dampening. The Fed is expected to make two more cuts this year, with only one cut in 2025, followed by a pause and gradual easing in 2026. Key Points: Economic Policy Focus:

The only reason I can think of for the early strength in Europe stocks was a flow-driven unwind in volatility and option trades. In any case, the market later figured out that Trump’s plan is to put tariffs on Europe. Closing changes: Stoxx 600 -0.6%German DAX -1.1%France CAC -0.7%UK FTSE 100 -0.2%Spain IBEX -2.9%Italy’s FTSE

Harris will deliver a concession speech at ‘around’ 6 pm ET. Biden is also likely to speak today or tomorrow. It’s way too early to talk about the future of the Democratic Party. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Australian trade data for September 2024 Barely impacting on the Australian dollar. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

In crypto, you always have that lingering feeling that a rug pull is right around the corner and that big gains are about to evaporate. There were fears about a ‘sell the fact’ move in bitcoin after the election and I’m sure those haven’t gone away but the strong finish today is promising. Bitcoin is

With Trump coming back from January 20 2025, Inauguration Day, get set for four years of headline trading. Trump’s first term was characterised by policy-shift-by-tweet, often while he was (NSFW! warning) … ummm … using the bathroom (apparently!). This produced some wild swings in financial markets. ForexLive will, as always, have an eagle eye out

Banco Central do Brasil Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) decision: Decision was unanimous.Pace of future interest rate adjustments and total magnitude of the cycle will be determined by the firm commitment to reaching the inflation target.Pace of future interest rate adjustments and total cycle magnitude will depend on inflation dynamics, expectations and projections, the output gap,

Mitch McConnell was asked about Trump tax cuts and said “I’m sure virtually all of us would like to see most of that extended”. McConnell also called for increasing defense spending. It all adds up to some big deficits. It’s not clear who will be the new Senate majority leader but three names that have

Prior was 53.1Non-seasonally adjusted vs 54.5 prior This is a low tier indicator but Canadian manufacturing is worth pondering on the loonie trade. Tariffs are a risk, but the currency is also near a four-year low. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Lagarde in Frankfurt: Celebrating 10 years of Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM)Bank capital ratios improved significantly: CET1 up from 12.7% (2015) to 15.8% (mid-2024)Euro area needs more banking consolidation – only 2 euro area banks rank in global top 10Banks need to help fund €5.4 trillion in green/digital/defense investments (2025-2031)Pushes for reduced national ring-fencing of capital/liquidityWants

Vitol head of research: China will continue to play an important role in global oil demand.Global oil demand to peak only in the 2030s, later than expected due to lower pick-up in EVs and commitments to environmental targetsLPG, naphtha, and jet fuel to drive global oil demand growth in 2025-2030China is restarting oil demand growth

German Chancellor Scholz angles for an election before the end of MarchGerman chancellor Scholz: Our companies need help immediatelyBOC’s Rogers highlights risks around higher rates after US electionThe US treasury auctions off $25B of 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.608%McConnell wants to see Trump tax cuts extendedRepublicans extend lead in the HouseCanada

There are goign to be policy changes to taxes, to trade, to immigration in the US that could lead to economic growth, which could lead to inflation and higher rates in the USBank of Canada is absorbing what we’re seeing and starting to think aheadWe will remain optimistic as things move from campaign to governing,

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock testimony to parliament Senate committee Comments: premature to assess impact of US election outcometoo early to assess tariff implicationsmonitoring global developments, prepared to move accordinglyRBA will respond as needed to geopolitical risksChina’s stimulus plans are a positive for China and AustraliaAustralia’s domestic inflation outlook is unchanged as yetgovernment cost

Add some political intrigue into the mix as German Chancellor Scholz says he will call for a confidence vote on Jan 15 that would allow for election before the end of March. He also highlighted that “of all the rich democracies, we have by far the lowest debt”. That’s the sort of thing a politician

I would say that so far, markets are on their way to pricing in a return of Trump 1.0. What we don’t know is if we’ll get something closer to the Trump 2.0 who talked about 60% China tariffs and mass deportations. Time will tell and we will be trading the headlines. For now, equities

The US treasury will auction off $25B of the “grand-daddy of them all” coupon issue – the 30 year bond. That comes the day after the US political enviroment and economic environment changed with the election of Pres. Trump and the winning of the Senate and most likely the House as well. BMO previewed the

High Yield 4.608%WI level at the time of the auction: 4.63%Tail: -2.2 bps vs 6-month average 0.5 bpsBid to cover: 2.64X vs 6 month average of 2.4XDirects (a measure of domestic demand):27.1% vs. 6-month average of 16.58%Indirects (a measure of international demand): 62.7% vs 6-month average of 68.10%Dealers: 10.2% vs 5-month average of 15.32% Auction

Trump is back and it looks like Republicans are back in Congressional control. The last time we had this slate, Republicans cut corporate taxes and I expect that will be the case again. The big change is that this time, the US is already running a 7% deficit of GDP and the S&P 500 is

Construction PMI 54.3 vs 55.5 expected and 57.2 prior. Key findings: Civil engineering remains best-performing category, followed by commercial work. Renewed decline in house building. Business optimism slips to ten-month low. Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “The construction sector signalled another month of solid output growth in October, despite

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Goldman Sachs is out with a note calling for the ECB’s terminal rate to fall to 1.75% rather than 2.00% in light of Trump’s win and incoming tariffs. I’ll take the ‘under’ on that. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It looks like Republicans will have free reign to administer the legislative agenda for at least the next two years. The bond market has been sniffing this out for awhile and is wilting today, with 30-year yields now up 19 bps on the assumption that Trump tax cuts will be extended and that there will

Pres. Trump blazed through the Presidential election and a new era begins. With control of the Senate and the House still up but leaning to the GOP too, the door is wide open for the administration for deregulation, smaller government, lower taxes. The theme is to grow the economy through the private sector with fingers

The first exit poll from Edison Research is out and it focuses on the demographics of voters: 53% of voters women vs 52% in 2020 71% white vs 67% in 202057% no college degree vs 59% in 202045% said personal finances were worse than 4 years ago vs 20% in 202031% said economy mattered most

The GBPUSD has moved down to test the 50% and a swing area between 1.2844 and 1.28719. The midpoint level is at 1.2866. The low price reached 1.2864 and is bouncing modestly. The bounce will target the low from two weeks ago at 1.29064. Staying below keeps the seller in control On the downside, the

Japan Jibun Bank / S&P Global Services PMI (October) 49.7 flash was 49.3prior was 53.1 Composite 49.6 prior 52.0 The report notes that momentum in Japan’s service sector faltered sharply at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2024, as companies experienced their first contraction in four months. Although the decline was slight, it coincided

There is just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. But on a day like this, the influence of the expiries is far from the first thing in driving or impacting trading sentiment. It’s all about the US election and the momentum flows riding from the results and emotions. As

And the policy push that matters most for Trump is arguably that of tax cuts. The House is in charge of approving tax legislation and a Democratic majority there surely won’t make matters easy for Trump. He would have to go through unconventional means i.e. executive powers in order to try and push through. But

There are three reasons why the Russell 2000 is the big winner and why that should last: 1) It’s bank heavy A big part of the Russell is banks and regional banks. The regulatory environment is going to improve markedly and we’re seeing a steeper yield curve, both big tailwinds. The KRE regional bank ETF

I’ve seen figures suggesting Trump to take 312 college votes vs. Harris 226. Seems a bit extreme , but still it’s the vibe right now. Trump in front bigly. . The USD is skyrocketing. AUD down 1%, NZD not far off. GBP down, EUR dpwn, JPY down. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

Preliminary results of Pennsylvania exit poll from Edison Research: Trump wins 43% of women voters, Harris wins 55%; Trump share down 1 pt from 2020Trump wins 50% of white women voters, Harris wins 48%; Trump share down 2 pts from 2020Trump wins 58% of white male voters, Harris wins 40%; Trump share down 4 pts

The USDCHF is trading up and down in trading today as the pair buys time ahead of the election results. The low for the price action has found support buyers in a key swing area between 0.86078 and 0.8619. That area also held support on Monday. On the upside, the 100 bar moving average on

There have been some big moves so far on the assumption of a red sweep but history shows that we’re only getting started. Here is the matrix from Deutsche Bank on the red sweep trades: Separately, here are seven equity-specific Trump trades from Jim Cramer. On top of that, we’re seeing rallies in the more-obvious

That is the highest level in four months and carries on from the surging run since October. And this is in part fueling the dollar gains on the day with EUR/USD now down nearly 2% at 1.0715 and USD/JPY up 1.7% to 154.15 currently. Trump’s domestic policies are largely aimed at boosting growth, spending and

The price of Bitcoin is running higher on the early Trump enthusiasm and in the process is moving toward the November 1 high. That level comes in at $71584. The high price just reached $71468 and backed off a bit. The current price is at $71163. Trump is considered more friendly to digital currencies. This

The US economic calendar is bare today aside from weekly oil inventory data. That will give markets a chance to trade around the election results. Eyes continue to be on House races, as it currently looks like Republicans will have a 2-seat majority, though there are some very close races. Scheduled economic news is slated

Crude oil futures are settling at $71.99, that is up $0.52 or 0.73%. Some influences: OPEC+ delayed 180,000 barrels per day of monthly production increases to January.US election uncertainty: Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump are neck and neck.China’s improving economy supports oil prices. Technically, the price spent most of the day between

Preliminary Results of Arizona Exit Poll: 46% of voters view Harris favorably, compared to Biden’s 49% in the 2020 exit poll (Edison Research).46% of voters view Trump favorably, versus 48% in the 2020 exit poll (Edison Research).63% of voters were White, versus 74% in the 2020 exit poll.4% were Black, versus 2% in 2020.26% were

Prior 49.6Composite PMI 48.1 vs 47.3 prelimPrior 48.6 The revisions are positive but still marks a drop from September. The details reveal the sharpest drop in new business since January with growth expectations also declining markedly compared to the month before. Cost pressures were subdued but prices charged by French service firms were still on

Fundamental Overview The US Dollar is higher across the board today as Trump got elected President of the US. The Republicans won the Senate, and they just need the House now to get a red sweep. That is the most bullish scenario for the greenback as it would make the tax cuts easier to pass

The data is here: New Zealand Q3 unemployment rate 4.8% (expected 5.0%, prior 4.6%) Westpac have a handy summary up, we don’t think that there’s anything in today’s figures that would shift the RBNZ’s thinking for its next policy decision at the end of this month Link to the full piece is here. My really

Final Services PMI 51.6 vs. 51.4 expected and 50.6 prior.Final Composite PMI 48.6 vs. 48.4 expected and 47.5 prior. Key findings: HCOB Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index at 51.6 (Sep: 50.6). 3-month high. HCOB Germany Composite PMI Output Index at 48.6 (Sep: 47.5). 3-month high. New business falls for second month running, leading to

The onshore yuan is sinking to its lowest since mid-August against the dollar now, with USD/CNY on the verge of hitting 7.17 on the day. It comes amid a surging dollar but also some bad news for China with Trump set to win the presidency. More tariffs and trade conflict will mean added concerns for

The NYT projection has Republicans with 194 seats and Democrats with 173 seats at the moment. And among the key ‘competitive’ districts here, there are still 45 left to officially report. That said, some of the votes are likely to be called imminently. So, let’s take a look at some important details that have surfaced

But the results have sort of been know for a while already, almost for the past four to five hours. Trump is on the verge of officially being declared the winner. He has 247 seats in the pocket with all the remaining five swing states (Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) all leaning towards him

German DAX futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.5% They’ve turned higher now in the past hour, dragged up by even more positive sentiment in US futures. S&P 500 futures are now at the highs for the day, up 1.7%, as we await the official announcement declaring Trump’s victory. For European equities, there is some mixed sentiment

The drop today brings the pair down to its lowest levels since June, with the daily decline itself set to even eclipse that seen in March 2020. The over 2% drop now is going to be the worst daily decline for EUR/USD since June 2016 amid the Brexit referendum vote. What a day. Trump’s election

Harris vs. Trump day here in Asia. Counting will commence around 6pm US Eastern time and I suspect we won’t get a definitive result before most of the US goes to bed. Apart from the election there are a few items of interest on the calendar here in the region. The New Zealand jobs report

Prior -0.1%Market index 191.4 vs 214.5 priorPurchase index 130.8 vs 137.8 priorRefinance index 513.5 vs 630.0 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.81% vs 6.73% prior Mortgage applications tanked in the past week with both purchases and refinancing activity slumping hard amid the rise in rates. Now that Trump has won the election and rates are skyrocketing even

Goldman Sachs cites potential tariff risks on the euro area following his election win today. No surprises there as this is also a key factor weighing on the euro currency as outlined here. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

I’m not sure what the FX market is trying to tell us today but all of the USD declines from earlier today has been erased. The main argument for a dollar rally that I’ve heard in the past month is a red sweep. The idea here is that Trump and Republicans would run deficits, cut

The dollar continues to hold higher across the board but not really pushing further upside in European morning trade. USD/JPY is up 1.5% to 153.95 with the earlier high touching 154.37. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is seen down 1.5% to 1.0765 but well off lows of 1.0702 when Trump was more or less a shoo-in to win

The Associated Press has made their call and we’re seeing everyone else chime in with CBS, Fox, and CNN all making their calls as well. Even Edison Research and FiveThirtyEight are also now calling it for Trump. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The US dollar has taken another leg higher. That’s come with similar moves in yields and bitcoin, all signs that the vote is moving in Trump’s direction. House odds have also improved for the GOP and that will be a critical secondary factor to watch. The latest news is that Decision Desk HQ has called

The Decision Desk HQ model has called the state for Trump. Moreover, they have the projected margin at 51.2% vs 47.8%. What’s notable about this result is that it expands on Trump’s win in the state compared to 2020, when he won by 1 point. That runs against the exit poll data from Edison that

Fundamental Overview Gold is trading lower today as Trump got elected President of the US. The Republicans won the Senate, and they just need the House now to get a red sweep. That is the most bearish scenario for gold in the short-term as it would make the tax cuts easier to pass which should

Earlier today, I highlighted that Harris was running better in Sullivan county in Indiana, which was one of the first counties to report. Well now, with 98% of the votes counted, Trump is running better than he did in 2020 by about 1 point. That’s a good sign for the former President and you can

All the Trump trades have climbed as election results from Georgia and Florida come in. Trump is running decidedly better in Florida and it’s safe to say he has won the state. The stronger vote there bodes well for him but him winning that state isn’t really a surprise. Perhaps what the market is reacting

We made history for a reason tonightWe’re going to help our country healThis will be the golden age of AmericaAmerica has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandateWe have taken back control of the SenateIt also looks like we are keeping control of the House This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Amid all the chaos and focus on the US election, let’s not forget that we have a Fed meeting as well on 7 November. As things stand, traders are still pricing in ~99% odds of a 25 bps rate cut for tomorrow. But looking out to October next year, the total rate cuts priced in

It all comes down to this now in determining whether or not we will see a red sweep in the election. The latest NYT projection has Republicans at 197 seats and Democrats at 177 seats. Remember, the magic number is 218 seats for a majority for the House. So, what has happened so far and

Its too early to be definitive but the current state of play is favourable for Trump. Indeed, the New York Times electoral college ‘needle’ is currently putting Trump on 278 electoral votes vs. 260 for Harris. The USD surged earlier as the voting favoured Trump. Key state of Georgia looks all but locked in for

I’ll update his remarks in a separate post. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Major indices close near the high of the day as US voter go to the pollsCrude oil futures settle at $71.99BOC Meeting minutes: BOC felt upside pressure on inflation will continue to declineThe Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate 2.4% vs 2.3% lastUS sells 10-year notes at 4.347% vs 4.350% WIVideo: Canadian dollar higher into the

A snippet while we await some results out of the US election. This via an analyst at Citi speaking in a CNBC interview on Tuesday before polls closed. In brief: starting point is fairly extended valuation … predicated on very strong earnings growth follow-through into 2025concern is that with that set up, you go into

I’m not sure where the votes are here but the biggest risk to the moves we have seen so far is if Democrats gain control of the House. Betting sites have Republicans as big favorites to win it but those are thin markets. It’s really tough to crunch the numbers in that department but the

US election: The calls are officially out now, Trump has won the US presidential electionTrump: This is a magnificent victory for the American peopleThe race for control of the House is playing out accordingly for the most part thus farHouse odds swing back in favour of RepublicansThe race for control of the House remains a

Asian timezone participants are well versed in thin liquidity trade, we see it every Monday morning. It’s the case today also, markets are going to shoved around on US election counting news. Be careful, your fills may be further away from where you click the buttons. USD/JPY and EUR/USD sharp moves: This article was written

What we know so far As of 7:00 a.m. UTC, most data providers, including ABC, CBS, NBC, and CNN, projected that Donald Trump would become the next president of the United States. However, even as Trump’s victory looks almost guaranteed at this point, it is the balance of power in the U.S. Congress that will

Decision Desk HQ is reporting odds of Democrats winning the House at 57.4% but that is the narrowest it has been in the last three hours. And in terms of number of seats, they are projecting Democrats to barely pip it with 219 seats. As a reminder, 218 seats is needed for control of the

These are critical states for the election: Preliminary results of Michigan exit poll: Trump wins 42% of voters with college degrees, Harris wins 56%; Trump share up 1 pt from 2020Trump wins 53% of voters without college degrees, Harris wins 44%; Trump share up 1 pt from 2020Trump wins 48% of voters age 45+, Harris

Prior -5.8%; revised to -5.4% German manufacturing orders bounced back in September after a dip in August and this was once again affected by large orders skewing the data. There was a significant increase in orders for other vehicle construction (aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles), which was twice as high as in the previous month.

There is a pretty clear picture in the early vote in Indiana and Kansas that shows Kamala Harris running 3-4 percentage points better than Biden did in 2020. With that, we’ve seen a tick higher in Harris odds on Kalshi to 45% from 42% in the past 30 minutes. The big caveat here is that

The NYT projection shows that Republicans have 189 seats now and Democrats at 162 seats. Of the remaining key seats in contention here, Republicans now need 19 seats and Democrats needing 29 seats to almost certainly win control of the House. There’s still plenty of seats yet to be called and the margins for some

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