The USDCHF moved higher early in the Asian session and the momentum higher, moved the price above its 100 day moving average at 0.8687. Momentum could not be sustained, however, and the price started to rotate back to the downside. In the early US session that momentum has continued with the day’s low prices from […]

Today is going to be kind of a synthetic Sunday as we have an empty calendar. Things will pick up tomorrow as we start to get some top tier economic releases which will culminate with the US NFP report on Friday. I would say though that the market’s focus is now on the US election,

Reports that Boeing is planning a US$15bn+ capital raising – as soon as Monday (US time). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

EURUSD: Key Levels: 100-hour MA: 1.08014 (current support) 200-hour MA: 1.08244 (current resistance) Recent Price Action: EURUSD moved above 100-hour MA on Thursday Touched and slightly broke 200-hour MA on Friday, but couldn’t sustain momentum Fell back below 100-hour MA to 1.07813, then rebounded Currently trading between 100-hour MA and 200-hour MA Current Outlook: Awaiting

Sector Overview The technology sector shines today, with notable gains in both consumer electronics and semiconductors. Apple (AAPL) is up 1.23%, reflecting strong investor confidence. Nvidia (NVDA) also enjoys a positive move with a 0.56% increase, highlighting sustained interest in semiconductor stocks. Meanwhile, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) surges by 1.48%, showcasing its solid position as

CNN reporting that MCD is to resume selling Quarter Pounders in all restaurants. Beef patties in Colorado have tested negative for E.coli.MCD had temporarily halted Quarter Pounder sales in a dozen U.S. states last week after an outbreak linked to the burgersno trace of the E. coli bacteria were found in McDonald’s Quarter Pounder beef

Here’s a snapshot of dollar pairs as we look to get European morning trade underway today: USD/JPY is still higher by 0.6% but is well off earlier highs at the end of Asia trading around 153.50-60 levels, with the pair now easing back towards its opening gap higher of 153.23 on the day. The yen

S&P 500 futures are up 32 points, or 0.55% while Nasdaq futures are up 0.7%, or 148 points. An open at those levels will put the Nasdaq just short of the record high, which it flirted with on Friday before retreating. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s ruling coalition lost its majority in an election over the weekend, which leaves the world’s fourth-largest economy facing the prospect of minority government, or minor parties acting as linchpins in coalition. USD/JPY is above 153 on the Japanese election result – yen plungeMonday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 28 October 2024

As the North American session begins, what are the key technical levels and why, are in play? EURUSD: The EURUSD moved above the 100-hour MA on Thursday and extended to the 200-hour MA on Friday. The pair’s prive moved to and then just above the 200-hour MA (green line on the chart below), but could

This’ll thin out trade in the kiwi somewhat. AustraliaJapanHong KongSingaporeChina are all in as normal. This little guy lives in the UK, daylight saving there ended on the weekend. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

There is just one to really take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.0800 level. Alongside the 100-hour moving average nearby at 1.0802 currently, it is likely to keep a lid on price action in the session ahead. That especially with higher yields continuing to underpin

According to this wonderful matrix from Carson Investment Research, October 28 is the best day of the year for the S&P 500, historically. Now I don’t put much weight in daily averages because they’re highly influenced by unique events but Goldman Sachs also notes that “Today marks the first day of the open window period

Fundamental Overview The bullish momentum in gold weakened recently as the pressure from the rising real yields started to weigh on the market. We haven’t got any meaningful catalyst in the last week but there’s been a good argument that the markets have been already positioning into a Trump victory. In the bigger picture, gold

Discretion is the better part of valour. This is going to be a volatile, uncertain week as we build up towards the US election next Tuesday. But it’s not just that, it’s a blockbuster week for economic data. It starts light today with the Fed thankfully in the blackout period and only the lowly Dallas

Headlines: Yen losses ease up a little in European morning tradeJapanese yen in the spotlight after weekend electionJapan parliament reportedly to convene special session to vote on prime minister postCrude Oil Technical Analysis – Israel spares Iran’s energy facilitiesWeekly update on interest rate expectationsECB’s Wunsch: It is premature to discuss December policy decisionSNB total sight

USD/JPY highs circa 153.30 (EBS). The yen has dropped after the Japanese election, latest is here: Japan’s ruling coalition lost its majority in an election – yen lower to open the week Earlier: USD/JPY is above 153 on the Japanese election result – yen plungeMonday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 28 October

Prior 4 After a brief respite in September, the UK retail sales balance heads back into negative territory for the month of October. The decline is marginal but it’s not a good start to Q4, which is typically seen as one of the hotter seasons in the run up to the year-end holidays. This article

The South Korean finance minister says will swiftly respond to any excessive forex market volatilities. I’m guessing we’ll hear some sort of similar comments out of Japan today given the slump in the yen: Japan’s ruling coalition lost its majority in an election – yen lower to open the week Earlier: USD/JPY is above 153

Eurostoxx +0.4%Germany DAX +0.4%France CAC 40 +0.6%UK FTSE -0.1%Spain IBEX +0.6%Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% The DAX looks poised to chase a run at fresh record highs once again amid the more optimistic start here. This comes with US futures also holding higher on the day. S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% currently. The more positive

Clocks in Europe the UK went back an hour on Sunday October 27 for the end of daylight saving. US clocks will change next weekend, Sunday November 3. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China’s top legislature, the 14th NPC Standing Committee (NPCSC), will convene for its twelfth session from November 4 to 8. The vice finance minister says further details will be announced after this. China to step up counter-cyclical fiscal policyChina confident in achieving around 5% growth targetDetails of fiscal stimulus will undergo a legal processWill be

It is reported that the incumbent ruling bloc is arranging to convene a special session in parliament to vote on the prime minister post. And that this will likely be arranged for 11 November i.e. two weeks from today. Just a bit of a heads up as Ishiba’s fate is now hanging in the balance

Yen weakened immediately in early hours Asia. Summary here: Japanese ruling coalition loses majority in election; USD/JPY reacts with volatility Nikkei gained: Weaker yen = stronger Nikkei relationship holding so far – Monday, October 28, 2024 USD/JPY update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

1730 GMT/1330 Eastern time – Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will be attending a fireside chat at The Logic Summit conference in Toronto it appears to me the topic will be economy and policy-related, so comments should be pertinent to trades. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

European Central Bank policy rate-setter Knot spoke on Saturday, watering down expectation of a December ECB rate cut just a little: “It is important that we keep all options open. Retaining full optionality would act as a hedge against the materialization of risks in either direction to the growth and inflation outlook,” “We believe that

This serves as just a bit of a reminder and a heads up to the session ahead. For those unaffected, this will mean European markets opening an hour “later” than the time last week. The bright side at least is that there is a lesser lull in the handover to North America trading but only

An official at the Bank of Korea says: on alert for any widening of financial market volatilities, will thoroughly monitor —- Eyes are on Japan and the yen: Japanese ruling coalition loses majority in election; USD/JPY reacts with volatility But, earlier from SK: Asia FX verbal intervention comments – not on the yen! (South Korea)

No urgency in further accelerating easing of monetary policyTemporary, small undershoot of inflation target due to energy price swings is acceptable There’s still plenty of data to come between now and then, so the ECB will definitely look to bide their time instead of pre-committing to anything. This article was written by Justin Low at

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) slip[ped these out over the weekend: industrial profits September, -27.1% y/y prior -17.8% in August earnings -3.5% in the January – September period prior +0.5% (January-August period) according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). That plunge for industrial profits in September is the biggest monthly decline all year.

Info comes via Reuters, updating the Citi outlook for oil. Lowers 0-3 month Brent oil target price to $70/bbl (from $74/bbl)Lowers Q4 2024 Brent forecast to $70/bbl (from $74/bbl)Recent Israel military action is unlikely to be seen by the market as leading to an escalation that impacts oil supplyWe expect a lower geopolitical risk premium

The US election is very tight with different polls showing different results. Alienating a large swath of voters so close to the election does seem to be risky. A speaker at Trump’s rally in New York on Sunday referred to Puerto Rico as a “floating pile of garbage”: “There’s literally a floating island of garbage

The People’s Bank of China says it is to conduct an outright reverse repo operation today, Monday, October 28, 2024 and will conduct monthly outright reverse repo operations once a month with a tenor of less than one year PBOC says its to maintain and ensure sufficient liquidity This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

The Israeli attack on Iran seems designed to minimise the chance of an all-out war: Israel strikes on Iran look designed to minimize the chance of retaliation Oil prices getting slammed lower on futures markets to open the new week. Brent down nearly $4 to circa $72WTI down over $4 to under $68 This article

The yen is continuing to lose ground, with USD/JPY back to its earlier high. Japan’s Nikkei has jumped, up nearly 2%. The weaker yen / higher Japan stocks relationship is holding for now. Earlier: Japanese ruling coalition loses majority in election; USD/JPY reacts with volatility Nikkei, hourly candles: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

USD/JPY is around 153.00, well up from late Friday levels circa 152.30 but down from a high circa 153.30 an hour or so ago. The news, ICYMI, is that the ruling coalition (LDP/Komeito) lost their majority. Japan’s ruling coalition lost its majority in an election – yen lower to open the week Earlier: USD/JPY is

Good morning, afternoon or evening to all ForexLive traders and welcome to the start of the new FX week. As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Note that is

USD/JPY is just above 153.00, a 70 or so point jump from its late Friday level. The Japanese election in summary: Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito have, combined, lost their majorityLDP had a majority in its own right going into the election, gone now of courseLDP and Komeito have

Well, the Japanese election is nail-biter: USD/JPY is above 153 on the Japanese election result – yen plunge Yen has been slammed lower, with USD/JPY above 153.00. As for the economic calendar, its empty today. Yne update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Sun: Japanese LDP ElectionMon: Japanese Jobs Report (Sep)Tue: German GfK (Nov), US JOLTS (Oct)Wed: UK Budget, Australian CPI (Sep), Spanish Flash CPI (Oct), US ADP (Oct), German Flash GDP (Q3) and Prelim CPI (Oct), EZ Prelim GDP (Oct), US GDP Advance (Q3), Japanese Retail Sales (Sep)Thu: BoJ Announcement and Outlook Report, Chinese NBS PMI (Oct),

Weeks of speculating about how Israel would respond to Iran’s attacks had markets worried about strikes on energy infrastructure or something that would spark a broader war. Instead, the attacks look to be measured and US President Biden immediately called for a halt to escalation. Reports from Iran say the attacks caused only limited damage

UPCOMING EVENTS: Tuesday: Japan Unemployment Rate, US Job Openings, US Consumer Confidence.Wednesday: UK Budget, Australia Q3 CPI, Germany CPI, Eurozone Q3 GDP, US ADP, US Q3 GDP.Thursday: Japan Industrial Production and Retail Sales, Australia Retail Sales, China PMIs, BoJ Policy Decision, Switzerland Retail Sales, French CPI, Eurozone Flash CPI, Eurozone Unemployment Rate, Canada GDP, US

The Fed blackout starts at midnight but the week ahead is packed with market-moving data, decisions and earnings reports. Here’s a day-by-day preview of the week ahead: MONDAY, OCTOBER 28 US data: Dallas Fed manufacturing activityUK: Lloyds Business BarometerJapan: Jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratioECB’s Wunsch speaksEarnings: Ford, Waste ManagementUS Treasury Quarterly borrowing estimates, 2yr ($69bn) and

A strong gap higher at the open quickly turned into a day of disappointment for bulls. After surging nearly 50 points in early trading to hit 5860, sellers stepped in and methodically unwound those gains throughout the session. The late morning and early afternoon saw particularly steady selling pressure, though buyers did attempt to defend

The New York Times released a poll today showing Trump and Harris deadlocked. That’s bad news for the Harris campaign as she had previously been leading. Combined with betting odds shifting in Trump’s favor and it’s starting to feel like we’ve hit a tipping point. The bond market has been selling off steadily today, which

A report in the WSJ could cool the crypto market. DOJ and Treasury investigating Tether over potential sanctions violations and illicit activityManhattan US attorneys leading criminal probe into possible links to drugs, terrorism, hackingTreasury mulling sanctions against world’s most traded crypto ($190B daily volume)Comes as Tether steps up compliance, recently froze 1,850 wallets worth $114MInvestigation

US UMich October final consumer sentiment 70.5 vs 69.0 expectedUS September durable goods orders -0.8% versus -1.0% expectedCanada August retail sales +0.4% vs +0.5% expectedCanada Sept new housing price index 0.0% vs 0.0% priorBaker Hughes US oil rig count -2BOC Macklem: If population grows slows more than assumed, headline GDP will be lowerCNN: Trump 47%.

Gold is impressive once again today as it rises $8 to $2743 after earlier falling as low as $2717. The rebound virtually assures that it will break the weekly closing record of $2719 set just a week ago. It’s been record after record for gold and on Wednesday it touched the best-ever at $2758 before

Having returned to low inflation, Canada is in a better place to deal with new economic shocksThere’s a fair amount of uncertainty on how quickly Canada’s new immigration curbs kick in, BOC will be watchingEffect of changes in assumptions about population growth will have a bigger impact on our GDP forecast that our inflation forecastIf

Many Chinese banks have cut mortgage rates today (cuts were announced earlier this month)Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins speaking on FridayUS Vice President Kamala Harris will not appear on Joe Rogan’s programBank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks on Friday – Q&AJapan’s economy minister says the weak yen has various impacts on

The latest I’ve seen re polling is from Asahi earlier this week, showing that the ruling LDP could lose up to 50 of its 247 seats in the lower houseLDP coalition party Komeito could see its seats fall under 30233 is needed to govern, the incumbent LDP may fall short of this if polling is

The risk mood is slowly deteriorating after a strong start. The S&P 500 is up just 10 points after rising is much as 50 pips. The trend has been steady and I haven’t seen any headlines that would explain the moves. I’d chalk it up to angst around the election. AUD/USD is now trading at

As the November 5 US presidential election approaches, Credit Agricole analyzes the potential impacts on the US dollar, noting improving odds for a Donald Trump victory and the subsequent market reactions. Key Points: The rising likelihood of a Donald Trump win has led to renewed interest in “Trump trades,” contributing to a rally in the

The NZDUSD has moved lower this week, and in the process moved below a swing area between 0.6031 and 0.60387. That swing area was retested yesterday on a corrective move higher and found willing sellers. On the downside, the low price reached earlier today stalled at 0.5986. That was just short of the high of

The European session is pretty empty on the data front with just the German IFO as the main highlight. The IFO index is similar to the German Composite PMI as they are correlated, so it shouldn’t be a big deal. In the American session, we get some low tier indicators like the US final UMich

Oil rigs -2Natural gas rigs +2 This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The GBPUSD moved up to test the 200 hour MA (green line) at 1.29986. THe high price reached 1.29977, just below that level. The subsequent move to the downside has seen the price move lower and toward the 100-day MA and 100-hour MA. Both of those MAs come in at 1.29683. The dualing MAs increase

Shares of Nvidia are up 2.4% today while Apple has gained 0.7%. That’s enough to nudge Nvidia past Apple and re-claim the throne as the world’s most-valuable company, a title it briefly held earlier this year. What NVDA hasn’t been able to do is sustainably hold above the June high of 143 but it’s trying

Wow Nellie. We have a horse race. The final CNN poll has Trump and Harris deadlocked at 47%. Earlier today NYTimes/Siena College poll in its final poll also showed a dead heat as well. Other polls show similar close results: Election Day: November 5. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Sector Overview: Unpacking the Technology Surge Today’s market is marked by an impressive performance from the technology sector, with many key players showing significant gains. Semiconductor stocks like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are up by 1.30%, demonstrating renewed investor confidence. Similarly, Nvidia (NVDA) posts a gain of 0.47%, continuing its upward trend amidst positive sentiment

Prior 95 French household confidence eased slightly in October, with an increase in fears surrounding unemployment weighing. The reading there crept higher from 26 in the previous month to 31 this month, just below the long-term average of 33. It also marks the highest reading since May 2021. This article was written by Justin Low

Adam was interviewed by Reuters on Thursday, not happy with the Bank of Canada: “The Bank of Canada cut 50 basis points but it didn’t grasp the challenges facing the Canadian economy,” “The market might be looking further out and saying, ‘this isn’t enough. Rates are still too high for where the economy is now.’”

Despite recent poll shifts favoring Trump, market pricing remains cautious, according to Deutsche Bank. The extent to which a Trump win is being priced in remains cautious despite discussions about “Trump trades” in the market. DB illustrates this in both the FX market via the US dollar and a basket of the S&P 500 companies

The Federal Reserve blackout starts at midnight ET but it looks like it will begin about 12 hours before that with a light calendar of Fed speakers today. The lone one on the schedule is Boston Fed President Susan Collins speaking in a fireside chat about the Boston Fed’s wide ranging work. I wouldn’t expect

The EURUSD moved higher in the early US session and tested its 200-hour moving average currently at 1.08342. Although the price ticked above the MA line on a few hourly bars, the momentum stalled. The buyers turned to sellers, and the price has moved back to the 100-hour MA (blue line) at the 1.08056. The

Lagarde has been all over the media this week and the message from all ECB members this week is that disinflation is unfolding more quickly than anticipated. The market is pricing is pricing in a 15% chance of a 50 bps cut in December, which is down from 25% early in the week. Risks to

The USDCHF continues to consolidate near highs in up and down trading: Key resistance: There is he resistance at the 100 day moving average at 0.86904. The high price for the week on Wednesday reached 0.86854. Getting above those levels is more bullish. Key support: Close support now comes in at the rising 200-hour moving

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is fighting for his political life and yesterday he came as close as he ever has to admitting a mistake. His government dropped immigration targets for the next three years by around 20%. Next year’s target will instead be 395,000 new permanent residents, and that will fall to 380,000 in

The AUDUSD moved lower earlier this week, and in the process fell below its 100-day moving average at 0.66952. A corrective bounce higher on Tuesday saw sellers lean against that level. Going forward, that level is a key resistance target. The subsequent fall midweek took the price below its 200-day moving average at 0.6628. It

UK GfK October consumer confidence -21.0 expected -21.0, prior -20.0 GBP little changed, around 1.2972 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The NASDAQ index is soaring as yields back off. Durable goods were better than expected with ex Boeing numbers showing strength. The Michigan consumer sentiment came in better with inflation expectations lower than last month at 2.7% (versus 2.9%). The NASDAQ index is now up 243 points or 1.32% at 18658.80. The index is also

The USDCAD continues to consolidate near highs in up and down trading: Key resistance: There is topside resistance at 1.38643 (the high price yesterday extended to 1.38678). Key support: Swing area support comes between 1.38337 and 1.38475. The price low today has *e stalled within that swing area keeping the buyers in control.. Targets on

TGIF. The USD is mixed in early US trading as the market prepares for US durable goods data at 8:30 AM ET (est -1.0% with core at -0.1% est). Canada will release their retail sales data at the same time (est 0.5%). Later at 10 AM the University of Michigan revised sentiment will be released

Eurostoxx -0.1%Germany DAX -0.2%France CAC -0.1%UK FTSE flatSpain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB flat It’s just one of those days really. There’s not much happening in markets so far on the day, with little appetite all around. The rise in bond yields is taking a breather in the last few sessions and that’s keeping things in

Fundamental Overview It looks like the market is taking some breather after an incredible rally in the US Dollar. This week was pretty empty on the data front, and we haven’t got any meaningful catalyst. The main culprit for the US Dollar strength has been the rally in long term Treasury yields. The yield curve

Headlines: A quiet session so far in European morning tradeGold pares weekly advance as buyers lose some near-term momentumWeekly update on interest rate expectationsECB’s Kazaks says doesn’t see a case for rates to fall below neutralGermany October Ifo business climate index 86.5 vs 85.6 expectedEurozone September M3 money supply +3.2% vs +3.0% y/y expectedFrance October

Closing changes in Europe on the day: Stoxx 600 flatGerman DAX flatFrance CAC -0.1%UK FTSE 100 -0.2%Spain IBEX -0.3%Italy’s FTSE MIB +0.1% On the week: Stoxx 600 -1.2%German DAX -1.0%France CAC -1.5%UK FTSE 100 -1.3%Spain IBEX -1.0%Italy’s FTSE MIB -1.3% The DAX hit a record last week but was reeled back in this week before

Prior was 0.0% There are some dark days ongoing for new Canadian condos and suburban housing projects. It’s not everywhere but there are certainly some that are bleeding. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 68.9Current conditions 64.9 vs 62.7 prelimExpectations 74.1 vs 72.9 prelim1-year inflation 2.7% vs 2.9% prelim5-year inflation 3.0% vs 3.0% prelim Expect a big swing shortly in the sentiment of about half of Americans. In the aftermath of this report, US equities are at the best levels of the day with the S&P 500

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

This is more or less what happens when market players don’t get their fix. It’s all about economic data these days and there hasn’t been any ones this week that stood out. The focus turned towards the bond market and rising yields but even that has cooled off in the past few sessions. 10-year Treasury

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker for Q2 was trimmed to 3.3% from 3.4% today. The economist consensus for Wednesday’s advanced report is 3.0%. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.2 percent to 2.7 percent. That’s

11:00 Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins participates in a fireside chat on the Boston Fed’s portfolio of work, supporting the Fed’s Congressional mandates The last we heard from Collins was in early October, arguing the case for a further 50bp of rate cuts by the end of the year. That view may

Prior month 0.0% revised sharply lower to -0.8%Durable goods orders -0.8% versus 1.0% expectedPrior month ex transportation 0.5% revised to +0.6%Ex Transportation 0.4% versus -0.1% expectedNon-Defense cap Ex air 0.5% versus 0.1% expected. Prior month 0.2%Durable goods ex defense -1.1% versus -1.3% last month (revised sharply lower from -0.2%) Ex transportation has seemed to have

In the kickstart video, I take a technical look at the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD , USDJPY and GBPUSD. EURUSD: Key Levels: 100-hour moving average: 1.0807 (support) 200-hour moving average: 1.0836 (resistance). Get and stay above is needed to increase the bullish bias A break higher would target the 200-day moving average:

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 43 bps (95% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 134 bps ECB: 30 bps (82% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 143 bps BoE: 41 bps (89% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 127 bps BoC: 29 bps (85%

RBC on the Bank of Canada 50bp rate cut, analysts at the bank expect another 50bp cut at the December meeting: cut was in response to more and more signs that both the economy and the jobs markets are slowing down more than is needed in order hit 2% inflation targetthis cut will not the

The changes are light in the new day but the antipodeans are slightly lagging in the major currencies space. It’s not so much the dollar but perhaps some light softness in the yuan is also weighing. In any case, it is bringing into focus some key technical levels for AUD/USD right now. Looking to the

The Wall Street Journal reports its latest national survey, finding that Trump is leading Harris by 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%. The journal caveats with: within the polls’ margins of error, meaning that either candidate could actually be ahead I haven’t seen many polls, apart from the ‘betting markets’ that show a much larger

Cryptocurrency is increasingly becoming more and more integrated into the overall global economy, and the need for reliable, secure, and efficient payment solutions has never been greater. For businesses looking to start taking advantage of digital currencies, CryptoProcessing is leading the charge, offering a platform that not only simplifies crypto transactions as a whole, but

Prelim was +0.5%Sept preliminary +0.4%Ex-autos -0.7% vs +0.3% expectedPrior ex-autos +0.4%Ex-autos and gas -0.4% vs +0.6% priorSales were up in four of nine subsectors Prior to this report, RBC looked at its cardholder data and said spending was “nothing short of abysmal”. Given that, the growth in this series is surprising but it’s concentrated in

Prior +2.9% Broad money growth continues to pick up in the euro area, reaffirming the trend over the past year or so. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview It looks like the market is taking some breather after an incredible rally in the US Dollar. This week was pretty empty on the data front, and we haven’t got any meaningful catalyst. The main culprit for the US Dollar strength has been the rally in long term Treasury yields. The yield curve

Prior 85.4Current conditions 85.7 vs 84.4 expectedPrior 84.4Expectations 87.3 vs 86.8 expectedPrior 86.3 It’s a beat all around as German business morale picks up in October, even the outlook index. That being said, all of this has to really translate more into the hard data for it to convince of better fortunes going into next

With the drop today, gold is down 0.1% on the week and looks to end its latest weekly winning streak at two. There’s still US trading to follow later though but there are a couple of things to note with the latest decline here. On the daily chart, it might not seem like much: That

Headline CPI 1.8% y/y, down from September expected 1.9%, prior 2.2% Core 1.8% y/y, and ditto, down from September expected 1.7%, prior 2.0%this is ex-food Core-core 1.8% y/y, underlying inflation up from September expected 1.8%, prior 1.6%ex-food and energy __________ *** Coming up from Japan: Japan election this weekend, LDP might lose out, need support

Nomura say that if the yen comes under pressure next week after the election japanese authorities could step in with intervention efforts to support the currency. The first step is verbal intervention. We’ve had some weak comments along these lines already from Japan this week, and some comments just a little less weak. Links to

We need to scrutinize whether US optimism can be sustainedOptimism about US seems to be broadeningWhen looking at fallout from weak yen on inflation, we must look not just at yen moves but factors that are driving them like perception of the US economyImplied volatility is still quite high, markets are unstablePolicy makers continue to

easyMarkets proudly announced its recognition as the “Leading Broker of the Year” at the prestigious Forex Expo Dubai 2024. This landmark event, a cornerstone in the global Forex community, provided easyMarkets with a vibrant platform to connect with enthusiastic traders, unveil dynamic promotions, and host the legendary football icon Roberto Carlos. The recognition as “Leading

Fundamental Overview It looks like the market is taking some breather after an incredible rally in the US Dollar. This week was pretty empty on the data front, and we haven’t got any meaningful catalyst. The main culprit for the US Dollar strength has been the rally in long term Treasury yields. The yield curve

Wall Street Journal with the article,: Musk has forged deep business ties with U.S. military and intelligence agencies, giving him unique visibility into some of America’s most sensitive space programs. SpaceX, which operates the Starlink service, won a $1.8 billion classified contract in 2021 and is the primary rocket launcher for the Pentagon and NASA.

Japan September 2024 PPI Services (Corporate Services Price Index) 2.6% y/y expected 2.7%, prior 2.7% Earlier from Japan: Tokyo area October inflation data: Headline 1.8% y/y (prior 2.2%) And, ahead: Japan election this weekend, LDP might lose out, need support from other parties to governPotential impact of Japan and US Elections on BoJ intervention, and

1830 GMT / 1430 US Eastern time: Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will address journalists and answer questions in-person and virtually at the sidelines of the IMF meeting *** The Bank of Canada cut by 50bp this week: Bank of Canada is out of touch, “didn’t grasp the challenges facing the Canadian economy”RBC analysts

German DAX futures -0.1%UK FTSE futures flat There’s not much in it with US futures also keeping rather muted on the day. That’s not giving traders much to work with to start the session with major currencies also still fast asleep for the time being. USD/JPY did briefly ease to a low of 151.45 but

Chinese media outlet Global Times with a summary of cuts that came into effect today: many Chinese banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China, have cut some of their existing mortgage ratesMortgage rates that currently exceed loan prime rate (LPR)-30 basis points (BP) will be reduced uniformly to LPR-30BPAfter

US equities on Thursday: Dow industrial average lower. S&P and the NASDAQ index move to the upside UBS say to expect more volatility ahead, through to the election. Analysts there nominate 4 reasons: higher yields expectations for a more modest pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts geopolitical concerns election uncertainty And point to the

USD/JPY is up from its earlier lows after all the inflation data from Japan this morning: Tokyo area October inflation data: Headline 1.8% y/y (prior 2.2%)Japan September PPI Services (Corporate Services Price Index) 2.6% y/y (expected 2.7%) In Tokyo, core consumer prices rose 1.8% y/y (exp 1.7, prior 2.0), a number below the BoJ’s 2%

The dollar cooled off alongside bond yields yesterday and that’s setting for a mixed mood towards the end of the week. Tech shares led gains in Wall Street but stock futures are looking more muted in the new day. As a whole this week though, equities are still down with a watchful eye on bond

New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence for October 2024 drops to 91.2 prior 95.1fell 4 points in October following three months of improvement Inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.8%: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan Economy Minister Akazawa: Won’t comment on forex levelsImportant for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentalsWeak yen has various impact on economy Meek comments these. USD/JPY is around 151.92 or so. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US weekly initial jobless claims 227K vs 242K expectedUS October flash S&P Global services PMI 55.3 vs 55.0 expectedBOE’s Ueda: Recent yen fall driven partly by optimism over US economic outlookECB’s Lane: Disinflation “well on track” to hit target in 2025Justin Trudeau says he will lead Liberals into the next electionKC Fed manufacturing index 0

Fundamental Overview It looks like the market is taking some breather after an incredible rally in the USDJPY pair. This week was pretty empty on the data front, and we haven’t got any meaningful catalyst. The main culprit for the US Dollar strength has been the rally in long term Treasury yields. The yield curve

UK Prime Minister Starmer says Brits who get additional income from shares or property don’t count as ‘working people’. Bloomberg with the report, saying that Starmer is hinting at tax rises on investors. – The UK is in dire fiscal straits, so tax rises are coming one way or another. I could probably say that

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is a panellist at the G30 39th Annual International Banking Seminar ‘The future of money and payments’at 1520 GMT, which is 1120 US Eastern time on Saturday, October 26, 2024 The topic does not sound conducive to comments on the economy or policy, but who knows? Bailey spoke mid-week:

No need for the ECB to contemplate such a scenarioThat would require weaker baseline and substantial undershooting of inflation target I guess we know which side of the debate that he is on. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The Dow industrial average index has been down for 4-consecutive days. For the S&P index, snapped a three-day losing streak with a move higher today. The NASDAQ index will tire on Monday lower on Tuesday higher on Wednesday and again higher today. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average -140.5 points or -0.33% at

The Bank of Japan is eyeing two elections. Firstly, this weekend in Japan: Japan election weekend – if the yen weakens after, the BOJ could step in with intervention And secondly, the US election on November 5. MUFG caution that the Bank of Japan may veer away from intervention to support the yen ahead of

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The ones for EUR/USD are seen at the 1.0800 and 1.0820 levels. The ones at the former held price action yesterday before rolling off and the ones today should keep downside price action more limited in between the key levels.

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris will not appear on podcaster Joe Rogan’s program scheduling did not line up, spokesperson Ian Sams said on MSNBC Rogan is popular with young men, a demographic I thought Harris might be keen to speak with. Not this time though. Joe, if you are reading this, and you have a

Citi’s head of global wealth Andy Sieg spoke with CNBC: bullish U.S. equitiesexpects rally after election uncertainty has gone “There’s going to be a relief rally that is most likely to happen. We saw it in 2016, we saw it in 2020” “… relief rally, it’s uncertainty leaving the market, being replaced by some certainty

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

The EURUSD is making a technical break into the close as it moves above its 100-hour moving average for the first time since September 30. That level comes at 1.08129. Getting and staying above that moving average is a win for the buyers. The next target comes against the 200 hour moving average at 1.08423.

Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) 700bn injected1 year2% rate 789bn mature This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

BOJ Ueda is on the wires saying: Optimism over U.S. economic outlook seems to be broadening somewhat We need to scrutinize further whether optimism over U.S. outlook is sustained BOJ still can afford to spend time scrutinising risks Recent yen falls driven partly by optimism over U.S. economic outlook When looking at fallout from weak

Deutche Bank is out with a critical reminder today that the US government is spending far more than it takes in annually. In 2023: Total Outlays (Spending): $6.13 trillionTotal Receipts (Revenue): $4.44 trillionDeficit: $1.69 trillion To get that back into balance, you need to either 1) raise taxes very much or 2) cut spending drastically.

Tokyo area inflation data is due Friday, Japan time: National-level CPI data for this month will follow in about three weeks, it takes longer to gather and collate the national data.Tokyo CPI is a sub-index of the national CPIIt measures the change in prices of goods and services in the Tokyo metropolitan areaIts considered a

Japan’s Finance Ministry’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Atsushi Mimura finance minister Kato met US Treasury Secretary Yellen on ThursdayKato and Yellne discussed recent FX moves in their meetingSays Japan and the US agreed to communicate closely on FXwe have recently seen one-sided, sharp fx movesdesirable for FX moves to reflect fundamentalswe will be

The NASDAQ index is trading near session highs as trades look to retest its 50-hour moving average currently at 18418.93. The price has reached 18413.38 so far. The index is probably up 125 points or 0.68%. Yesterday, the price fell below the 50-hour moving average (orange line) and the 100-hour moving average (blue line), but

Jibun Bank S&P Global PMI Flash / Preliminary for October 2024 for Japan – slumping from the previous month: Composite 49.4, first contraction in four mnnths Not a good survey: factory activity contracts for the 4th straight monthNew orders decreased across manufacturing and servicesPoor demand conditions in the domestic economy, and new orders from abroad

In the above video, I speak to the technicals that are driving the AUDUSD in trading today. The buyers had their shot. Sellers are taking back control. Can they keep the momentum going?. Below is a summary of those technicals. AUD/USD Technical Analysis Key Break and Reversal Yesterday, the AUD/USD broke below its 200-day Moving

Mark your calendars! MENA’s most popular online trading event – iFX EXPO Dubai 2025 – returns to the region, with the latest instalment promising to be the biggest and best one yet. Taking place between January 14-16, 2025, at the Dubai World Trade Centre, the 2+ day exhibition is one of the largest B2B and

Sector Overview The stock market heatmap today reveals fascinating sector dynamics. Notably, Tesla (TSLA) soared by 13.00%, leading gains in the consumer cyclical sector, while technology giants exhibited mixed results. Technology Sector: Microsoft’s (MSFT) slight gain of 0.19% contrasts with Apple’s (AAPL) dip of 0.70%, reflecting uneven performance within tech stocks. Nvidia (NVDA) managed an

The existing home sales yesterday came in weaker. The new home sales data today came in stronger. Existing home sales account for about 80% of home sales in the US. Today, the Freddie Mac 30 year mortgage rate rose to 6.54% from 6.44% last week. This is highest level since August 1 week. The good

Yesterday’s Price Action Yesterday, the NZD/USD followed the USD’s upward momentum, breaking below the swing area support between 0.6031 and 0.60387. This move propelled the pair to a low of 0.59976, just shy of the psychologically significant 0.6000 level. Today’s Market Dynamics Today, the price rebounded, retesting the swing area resistance (0.6031-0.60387), but sellers leaned

The Liberal Party behind Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tried to force him out this week, or at least 20 MPs did, but the move looks like a failure. They held a meeting yesterday and told him to make up his mind by Monday. He reportedly told caucus he would take some time to reflect

Latest underlying inflation measures hovering around 1.9% to 2.8%, down significantly from peak range of 3.4% to 7.5%Core inflation (ex food & energy) down to 2.7% in Sept vs 4.5% a year agoPersistent and Common Component of Inflation measure at bottom of range at 1.9% in Sept – has been around 2% since end of

The remarks from Japan were nearly an hour ago, beginning with Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kazuhiko Aoki: Japan official says watching for speculative FX moves Followed by more forthright comments from Kato: Japan finance minister Kato says Rapid moves seen in recent FX market USD/JPY did dip towards 152.60 and just beneath but its only

As a reminder, it was also “probable” that the ECB would’ve paused in October. And look at how things played out instead. It’s all about the data at this stage and we’ll get a first test of the ECB’s resolve from the PMI figures later today. The ECB will only be meeting next on 12

The euro is at the highs of the day as it rebounds following three days of selling. The gains are mostly driven by the US dollar slide as it retraces following a long run. Treasury yields are down today with US 10s lower by 5 bps to 4.19%. Zooming out further, the euro has dug

There are quite a number on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD at the 1.0780 level through to 1.0800. That might keep price action locked in for a while until we get to the euro area PMI data later. If there is downside surprises to the

US stocks are pointed to open higher with S&P 500 futures up 0.5%. A big tailwind is coming from shares of Tesla, which are up 14% pre-market after posting better Q3 numbers than expected. For the broader economy, the comments from UPS were positive as it beat on earnings and shares are up 7% premarket.

Collective wage agreements in Germany were up 6.2% y/y between January and AugustThese findings do not fundamentally call into question the expected disinflation processBut labour market situation is of great importance for the speed and extent of disinflationGDP likely shrank again in Q3 but should avoid a significant and broad-based decline in output Just a

1300 GMT/0900 US Eastern time: Bank of England MPC member Catherine Mann speaks at panel discussion:at the Reinventing Bretton Woods Global macro economy in the world ‘Financial system in a new world’, Washington DC 1975 GMT/1545 US Eastern time Mike Gill Memorial Lecture by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at the CFTC Bank of

I think people are taking some money off the table ahead of the election. Stocks are falling despite lower Treasury yields. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kazuhiko Aoki has not shifted USD/JPY much at all with his comments: No comment on FX levelsDesirable for currencies to move stably reflecting economic fundamentalsClosely watching FX moves with a sense of urgencyGovt watching forex moves closely including for speculative moves This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Manufacturing PMI 42.6 vs 40.8 expected and 40.6 prior.Services PMI 51.4 vs 50.6 expected and 50.6 prior.Composite PMI 48.4 vs 47.6 expected and 47.5 prior. Key findings: HCOB Flash Germany Composite PMI Output Index(1) at 48.4 (Sep: 47.5). 2-month high. HCOB Flash Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index(2) at 51.4 (Sep: 50.6). 3-month high. HCOB

€STR futures are showing odds of a 50 bps rate cut to be ~20% currently. But as per money market pricing yesterday, those odds went up to as high as 40% following this report here. I’d say traders are pricing in something somewhere in between that, and perhaps closer to the latter than the former

Prior was 0.716m (revised to 0.709m)Sales up 4.1% vs -2.3% prior Earlier today, Whirlpool warned about a soft housing market. “General housing market… is still in a very soft spot. And that’s — we all know, is ultimately driven by mortgage rates. But then the pre-election consumer sentiment is just not good,” said CEO Marc

Data from earlier is here: South Korean Q3 GDP comes in well under estimates: +0.1% q/q (vs. +0.5% expected) A Bank of Korea official with remarks: Growth in IT exports slowingWill need to examine whether there is change in growth trend for next economic forecasts in November There are many factors raising uncertainty over exportsThis

Economic weakness suggests we could get to 2% inflation earlier than end-2025We should not remain in restrictive territory when we get to targetServices weak, industry not recovering Someone in Europe gets it. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Final Sept reading was 55.2Manufacturing 47.8 vs 47.5 expectedPrior manufacturing was 47.3 priorComposite 54.3 vs 54.0 prior These numbers are a touch hot, highlighting once again that the US economy is fine. Commenting on the data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “October saw business activity continue to grow at

Eurostoxx +0.3%Germany DAX +0.2%France CAC 40 +0.4%UK FTSE +0.4%Spain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB +0.3% For European indices, they not only have to deal with overall equities sentiment on the day but also PMI data in the next hour. So, look out for that. In the meantime, US futures are keeping a little higher at the

The USDCAD experienced a decline in the European and early North American sessions but rebounded strongly after testing support near 1.3813, its earlier weekly floor. This upward swing has brought the pair back to the swing area between 1.38337 and 1.38475, with the price momentarily reaching 1.3852 and encountering resistance. Currently, buyers are in control,

1345 GMT / 0945 US Eastern time Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack welcome remarks before the “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2024” event hosted by the Center for Inflation Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the European Central Bank Hammack is the sole Fed speaker I have on the calendar.

Prior was -18Composite index vs -8 prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The inaugural Finance Magnates Annual Awards (FMAA) Gala kicked off last night at Lemon Park Venue in Nicosia, Cyprus, drawing some of the biggest name companies and executives in the industry. The black tie event was powered by AWS and constituted the highest standards of both transparency and excellence in the financial services arena. After

The major US stock indices are trading mixed with the broader indices (S&P and NASDAQ) higher. The Dow industrial average is lower. The Dow industrial average is reacting to sharp declines in: IBM: -6.70%Honeywell: -4.44%Boeing: -2.02%. Boeing machinists rejected a new labor contract that included wage increases of 35% over four yearsVerizon: -2.11% A snapshot

In the above video, I take a technical look at the USDCAD after the 50 bp cut yesterday. That move took the price higher and outside a key swing area, but could not sustain momentum. However, the decline today is trying to hold support at an earlier base level this week. That level will be

Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 flatGerman DAX +0.4%France CAC +0.1%UK FTSE 100 +0.2%Spain IBEX flatItaly’s FTSE MIB +0.2% European stocks turned lower alongside the S&P 500, which opened strongly but is now up just 0.1%. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCHF has been trading higher since September 30, and after breaking outside of the “Red Box” on October 4. The price moved up to a swing area and then above the 38.2% retracement during last week’s trading. On Monday this week, the price corrected down to retest the 38.2% retracement at 0.86318 and found

Prior -35 UK factory order book balance holds in negative territory in October, keeping not much changed to the month before. The volume of new orders, measured quarterly, declined to -11 from +1 previously and that hints at softer sentiment with the reading being the weakest since October 2020. This article was written by Justin

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Services PMI 51.8 vs 52.4 expected and 52.4 prior.Manufacturing PMI 50.3 vs 51.4 expected and 51.5 prior.Composite PMI 51.7 vs 52.6 expected and 52.6 prior. Key Findings: Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index(1) at 51.7 (Sep: 52.6). 11-month low. Flash UK Services PMI Business Activity Index(2) at 51.8 (Sep: 52.4). 11-month low. Flash UK Manufacturing

Info comes via Reuters UK car output fell for the seventh consecutive month in September 20.6% decline y/yEV production fell 37% in September Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) cite: factories wound down production of current models to retool for new zero-emission vehicles (ZEV)drop also partly due to last year’s strong performance, which was

It’s odd for her to take such a consistently hawkish stance with that kind of view. Inflation news has been goodServices prices still have a long way to goDeceleration in prices might not quite get us to 2% inflation target in medium term This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview Crude oil basically erased the entire rally first triggered by the Iranian missile attack against Israel in the first days of October. We are now back to square one as the market awaits the key catalysts in the next few weeks. In the big picture, central bank easing generally leads the manufacturing cycle,

In the above video, I speak to the technicals that are driving the USDCHF in trading today. Below is a summary of those technicals. Market Overview The USD/CHF begins the day with a relatively narrow 21-pip trading range, significantly below its average monthly range of 53 pips (39% of normal). This subdued volatility makes it

The major US stock indices are tumbling to new lows. Dow industrial average is down 580.31 points or -1.35% at 42344S&P index is down 80.43 point toward -1.37% at 5770.88NASDAQ index is down 396 points or -2.13% at 18177.64. Technically, the NASDAQ index is moving toward its rising 200 hour moving average at 18115.01. The

EUR/USD Technical Analysis On Monday, the pair stalled at the 1.0870 area (100-hour MA and 200-day MA convergence), initiating the current downtrend. This convergence increased the falling 100-hour MA’s importance going forward. Yesterday, the EUR/USD extended its decline, breaking below the 1.07767 level (August 1 low). This move triggered a further decline to 1.07605, but

I spoke with Kitco News yesterday to discuss several major themes moving markets right now, from BRICS expansion to pre-election positioning and the broader macro backdrop for the US dollar. We talked about how the US faces mounting challenges with debt levels exceeding $35 trillion and deficits running at nearly 7% of GDP despite strong

more to come This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.The times in the left-most column are GMT.The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

Headlines: Euro takes a ride on the PMI seesawECB’s Holzmann: A 25 bps rate cut is probable in DecemberECB’s Holzmann says will cut rates if circumstances, inflation allow for itECB’s Vasle says should keep cutting rates in “measured steps”France October flash services PMI 48.3 vs 49.9 expectedGermany October flash manufacturing PMI 42.6 vs 40.8 expectedEurozone

German DAX futures flatUK FTSE futures +0.3% Tech shares are the ones leading the charge as we get into European trading, with Nasdaq futures seen up 0.5%. That is helped by Tesla beating profit estimates in their earnings release after hours yesterday. S&P 500 futures are also up 0.3% as such but Dow futures are

Fundamental Overview The USD has been on a hell of a run recently despite the lack of catalysts and no major repricing in interest rates expectations. The main culprit for the recent strength in the US Dollar has been the rally in long term Treasury yields. The yield curve has been bear-flattening which is what

Prior was 241K (revised to 242K)Continuing claims 1897K vs 1875K expectedPrior continuing claims 1867K (revised to 1869K) This is better than economists were expecting, though continuing claims are now at the highest since November 2021. Michigan saw the largest drop (-7,917) due to fewer manufacturing layoffsGeorgia posted the biggest increase (+3,293), citing layoffs across manufacturing,

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior 98Manufacturing confidencePrior 99Services confidencePrior 98 This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The USD is correcting lower today as the North Amercan traders enter for the day. US yields are lower. The broader stock indices are higher. What are the key levels in the Forex today? EURUSD: The EURUSD extended the decline below the next downside target yesterday at the 1.07767 level (low from August.1) The momentum

Several Fed officials — including Powell — cited the Beige Book as one of their reasons for cutting 50 basis points in September. There is a belief at the Fed that anecdotal data is often better at capturing turning points than hard numbers, particularly in lagging data like employment. The September Beige Book was dour

Japan finance minister Kato Rapid moves seen in recent FX marketNo comment on FX levels interventionDesirable for currencies to move stably reflecting economic fundamentals Closely watching FX moves with a sense of urgencythere was no discussion on FX at today’s G20 meeting and I don’t expect any tomorrow The reference to ‘rapid moves’ is a

USD/JPY has dripped lower from highs above 153.00 during US time. Not a lot lower, but I’m sure Japanese authorities will welcome any relief from the pounding JPY has taken, no matter how small. The dip for the US dollar was attributed to the Beige book: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 23 Oct: Dollar moves

We should keep going to neutral in measured stepsThere is no urgency in discussing undershooting the target or going below neutralInflation has not yet been defeatedBut recent data has been encouragingOnce we get closer to neutral, it may be appropriate to align our language accordinglyA soft landing with a recovery is still the baselineBut recent

The September Beige Book was one of the final straws that pushed the Fed towards cutting rates by 50 basis points later that month. The next edition is due at the top of the hour. In that report, economic activity was said to growth slightly in three Districts, while nine reported flat or declining activity.

Federal Reserve speakers on Thursday include Cleveland President Beth HammackUSD/JPY has (eventually) fallen following some verbal intervention from Japanese officialsEuropean Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane speaks again on ThursdayJapan finance minister Kato says Rapid moves seen in recent FX marketJapan official says watching for speculative FX movesBank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and MPC

Today is the only lively day of the week in terms of market moving data releases. In the European session, we’ll get the French, German, Eurozone and UK Flash PMIs. In the American session, we get the US Jobless Claims and the US Flash PMIs. Economic data: France Manufacturing PMI: 44.9 expected vs. 44.6 prior.France

Morgan Stanley Investment Management on US equities, speaking with Dow Jones / Market Watch “We’ve had a heck of a good run,” rally “probably continues once we get through the election” “but I’m not sure next year will be quite as good a year”rally pause on the 10-year Treasury rate’s move higherbut encouraged by companies’

France October flash services PMI 48.3 vs 49.9 expectedGermany October flash manufacturing PMI 42.6 vs 40.8 expected At the balance, not too much has changed. EUR/USD was holding around 1.0787 before the data and is now around 1.0792 currently. The stronger than expected showing in Germany is helping to offset downbeat numbers from France. However,

A 25 bps rate cut in December is not ruled outBut it is not fully decided just yet I reckon it is pretty much a given unless there are upside surprises to both economic and inflation data in the weeks ahead. Otherwise, one or the other should likely validate another rate cut. But significant downside

Prior 51.4Manufacturing PMI 45.9 vs 45.3 expectedPrior 45.0Composite PMI 49.7 vs 49.8 expectedPrior 49.6 The manufacturing sector in the region continues to keep in contraction territory while services activity is continuing to slow further going into Q4. At the balance, it reaffirms that the Eurozone economy is stuck in a rut as it faces up

It’s been a rather lackluster last few sessions in Europe in terms of headlines. But hey, things might take a different turn today. On the agenda, we do have PMI data from France, Germany, and the Eurozone to make up for it. That will at least keep things interesting especially if the data continues to

Prior 49.6Manufacturing PMI 44.5 vs 44.9 expectedPrior 44.6Composite PMI 47.3 vs 49.0 expectedPrior 48.6 The post-Olympic blues is continuing for France and this just reaffirms that underlying conditions remain poor to start Q4. Both services and manufacturing prints were a miss on estimates with the former definitely hurting more. Adding to the likelihood of the

Fundamental Overview In recent days, gold has been making new highs despite the lack of bullish catalysts and the rise in real yields. Nonetheless, we’ve been seeing some quick selloffs at the highs in a potential sign that real yields are starting to bite, and we might be near a bigger pullback. Today, we get

The firm’s offer included a 35% pay rise over four years. IAM union members voted to reject the deal and stay on strike. Info comes via BBC, ungated. Check out that link for more. The strike has implications for work at suppliers. Staff layoffs and what have you. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

The market has certainly noticed the slowing inflation with the pound down 65 pips today to the lowest since mid-August. The market is 95% priced for a 25 bps cut in November but only about 75% priced for another cut in December. That’s too low. Inflation below target pushed around by annual base effectsHigh savings

Judo Bank / S&P Global preliminary PMIs for Australia in October 2024. Manufacturing PMI still in contraction in Australia, while services is a touch improved on the month. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I’m just reading through a piece from the American Enterprise Institute, a center-right/right-wing think tank based in Washington, D.C., that researches government, politics, economics, etc. Its titled Gathering Clouds over the Chinese Economy (link is to the piece). Not everyone is going to like it. Especially China. But, it’s a good summary of where we

The economy is clearly weakeningThe environment is conducive to further cutsI wouldn’t take for granted that we will stop at the neutral rate There were a handful of ECB officials out yesterday with similar comments. The market is pricing in a 20% chance of a 50 bps cut on Dec 12 with ongoing priced to

US stocks close lower on the day but off their lowest levels: Dow industrial average -409.94 points or -0.96% at 42514.95. At session lows, the index was down -631.72.S&P index fell -53.78 points or -0.92% at 5797.42. At session lows the index was down -88.79 pointsNASDAQ index -296.47 points or -1.60% at 18276.65. At session

This data comes from the Bank of Korea, SK’s central bank. Q3 GDP +0.1% q/q (expected +0.5%, prior -0.2%)+1.5% y/y (expected +2.0%, prior +2.3%), slowest since Q3 2023 Q3: private consumption +0.5% q/qconstruction investment -2.8% q/qfacility investment +6.9% q/q exports -0.4% q/qimports +1.5% q/q This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Lane is the most likely to offer up comments pertinent to markets and traders. 1100 GMT/0700 US Eastern time: European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane delivers remarks at a conference organised by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s Centre for Inflation Research and the ECB 1330 GMT/0930 US Eastern time: The European Central Bank’s

The Beige Book showed economic activity was “little changed in nearly all Districts” compared to August’s report which had three Districts showing growth and nine showing flat/declining activity. Employment growth moderated further, with hiring now “focused primarily on replacement rather than growth” compared to August’s steady levelsManufacturing weakness became more widespread, with “most Districts” now

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Xinhua with the report: Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook says the firm to increase investment in ChinaKeen to seize opportunities, contribute to high quality developments of industrial, supply chains – Xinhua is a Chinese Communist Party state media outlet. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Bank of Canada took an axe to its benchmark rate today with a 50bp cut: The full statement from the Bank of Canada interest rate decisionMacklem statement: We anticipate cutting our policy rate furtherBank of Canada rate decision: 50 basis point cut, as expected Check out those posts above for the ‘as it happened’,

UBS are forthright with their view on the US dollar – “Unattractive” – say to sell bouts of dollar strength to reduce exposure. UBS cite: The Fed remains set to lower rates amid lower inflation. US fiscal concerns are likely to keep the US dollar under pressure. in the event of a second Trump administration

Here are the comments from the Beige Book that include a number qualifier: Most Districts reported declining manufacturing activity.Many communities experienced a persistent lack of affordable housing.A few Districts reported boosted activity from data center and infrastructure projects.Employment increased slightly, with more than half of the Districts reporting slight or modest growth.Many Districts reported low

Then-Goldman Sachs chief economist Jim O’Neill introduced the term BRIC in 2001. He was referring to the growth potential of Brazil, Russia, India and China and the need to reform global governance to include them. O’Neill doesn’t think much of the grouping now. Speaking with Reuters: “The idea that the BRICS can be some genuine

Rabobank analysts are expecting EUR/USD to ‘lurch lower’ in coming months but have been reluctant to forecast parity due to the continuing to “display significant resilience”. likely that a large part of the resilience has been drawn from the view that the ECB would be cautious in cutting interest rates … (but) this view is

You have to wonder if the Bank of Japan begins to tilt more hawkishly once again in light of the yen declines. It’s still taking time for us to get to 2% in a sustainable mannerIf you have inflation expectations anchored around zero, it’s hard to change themWe can’t telegraph all our future movements ex

Beige Book cools the US dollar bidBOJ Governor Ueda: Underlying inflation has been rising slowlyBOE’s Bailey: Disinflation has taken place faster than expected in the UK and elsewhereCIBC: It would take a major turn of events to stop another 50 bps Bank of Canda cut in DecECB’s Panetta: We have clearly seen an improvement in

CIBC thinks the Bank of Canada will cut rates by 50 basis points again in December. “With the current 3.75% rate still in restrictive territory, it would take a major turn of events to stand in the way of another 50 basis point reduction in December,” writes CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld. CIBC believes the

The US treasury auctioned off $13 billion of 20 year bonds: High yield 4.590%WI level at the time of the auction 4.574%Tail +1.6 basis points vs six-month average -0.62 basis points (although the last election was 2.0 basis points)Bid to cover 2.59Xvs six-month average 2.63XDirects 17.64% vs six-month average 16.93%Indirects 67.87% vs six-month average 72.78%Dealers

The US treasury will auction off $13 billion of 20 year bonds at the top of the hour. The auction results will be compared to the six-month averages of the major components from the auction. Those six-month components show: Tail six-month average -0.62 basis points (although the last election was 2.0 basis points)Bid to cover

While Japanese authorities tell us not to be worried about levels, focus on the rapidity and volatility (and speculative nature) of yen moves, UBS is nominating levels to eye regardless: say below 148.00 in short-term valueand that above 152.00 the rate is stretched UBS cite US rates in their reasoning. Keep on eye on Japanese

I see a soft landing for Europe as guaranteed.I’m not sure too much has changed in recent data.Market pricing of cuts is likely too aggressive.Some colleagues likely to push for big December cut.Current data don’t justify 50 bps in December. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

First and foremost, prediction market traders are betting to make money, not showing loyalty to any politician. Their goal is profit, and they’re trying to secure bets at favorable odds based on who they think will win. Several factors, like strong GOP voter registration data in swing states like Pennsylvania, indicate that Trump has a

Downside risks to growth are accumulating.50 bps is on the table.Data will determine the cut size.There are early signs to be concerned about the labour market.Downside risks dominate growth and inflation. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

In the North American morning report, I wrote on the AUDUSD: The AUDUSD is also breaking [lower] and fell below its 50% midpoint of the move up from the August low to the September high. That midpoint level comes in at 0.66451 and is now close resistance. On the downside the 200 day moving average

USD/JPY has soared 200 pips today in its fourth day of gains as the FX market recalibrates to a stronger US dollar and US economy. The move brings the pair back into line with Treasury yields, which have also erased the decline that started in late July. The market may also be making an election

ECBs Escriva does not want to be left out and says: Risk to inflation remains balanced. Yesterday Escriva in a interview to a Spanish newspaper said: ECB board member Jose Luis Escriva sees no clear signs of inflation drifting up or down to change the current outlook.Inflation is approaching the 2% target, according to September

ECB Nagel is speaking as per CNBC and says: He is convinced the ECB is more or less on track to meet 2% inflation target. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Shares of Apple are moving sharply lower after MIng CHi Kuo a widely followed analyst of Apple projects that iPhone 16 orders will be cut by around 10 million units for 4Q 2024 to 1H2025. Shares of Apple are currently trading down $6 or -2.54% at $229.86. Last week, the price reached an all-time high

Prior month 3.86M revised to 3.88M last month. Existing Home sales 3.84M annualized pace versus 3.86M estimate.Lowest level since October 2010Sales MoM -1.0% vs -2.0% last month (revised from -2.5%)Sales YoY -3.5% % vs -4.2% YoY last month. Last year sales pace was at 3.98 million Inventory 4.3 months vs 4.2 months last month. A

The stars looked to be aligning for bitcoin late last week as tech stocks and Nvidia shares hit records, risk appetite improved and gold soared to all-time highs. In addition, reports of heavy buying of ETFs indicated strong investor demand. Evidently that wasn’t enough to crack $70,000, let alone the March record high of $73,800.

There is something of a flight-to-safety trade ongoing in US markets with the S&P 500 now down 1.2% and the Nasdaq off by 2%. Oil, gold and risk-sensitive currencies are also selling off. You would expect that to lead to some bids in bonds but they aren’t materializing. US 2-year yields are at the highs

Adam posted on the IMF’s World Economic Outlook on Tuesday: IMF boosts US growth forecasts, trims China and Germany But, it falls to me to add the info for Australia. And its not good: forecast 3.6% inflation for 2025, up from 2.8% in their previous forecast back in April Sees inflation to 3% in December,

The GBPUSD moved below its 100-day moving average earlier today at 1.2963. The price also fell below the 61.8% retracement of the move up from August low at 1.29580. Both those levels would need to be rebroken on the topside to give the buyers more control. Until then, the sellers are in charge and in

Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 50 basis points to 3¾% The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3¾%, with the Bank Rate at 4% and the deposit rate at 3¾%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization. The Bank continues to expect the global

1300 GMT / 0900 US Eastern time: Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden takes part in a panel discussion on financial regulation hosted by the Institute of International Finance (IIF) in Washington, alongside Citigroup Chair John Dugan This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US stocks have extended their fall with the NASDAQ index now down 1% on the day. The Dow industrial average is down -0.88% and the S&P index is down -0.69%. Shares of Nvidia are down -2.45% at $139.95 after extending to a new all-time high price at $144.42 during yesterday’s trading. Since the August 5

Gold is down $10 today after hitting a record high yesterday. Reuters is out with a report highlighting a drop in China gold and copper imports due to a potential tax change, citing four sources: Gold ore/concentrate imports to China fell 22.4% m/m in September to 201,004.9 MTChinese customs floating plan to put higher taxes

1300 GMT / 0900 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives opening remarks on second day of the Eighth Annual Fintech Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 1600 GMT / 1200 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks on “Recognizing the Impact of Community

It’s going to be yet another slow day on the data front as the calendar is pretty empty. The main event will be the Bank of Canada rate decision. We will also hear from central bank speakers although they are unlikely to add anything new at this point. 13:45 GMT/09:45 ET – BoC Rate Decision

S&P 500 futures are down 0.4% ahead of the open in what’s become a familiar pattern. Over the past week, stock futures have been weak only to see buying throughout the day and decent closes. The index hit a record high on Thursday but has seen some mild profit taking since. Eyes are on McDonald’s

The Bank of Canada rate decision will take place at 9:45 AM ET. The expectations are for a 50 basis point cut. Adam summarized the decision here. Key takeaways: Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates by 50 bps on Wednesday, marking the first significant cut in the current cycle.OIS market predicts a 90%

ECBs Lane is speaking and says: High conviction that disinflation is on trackSome recent data raise questions about growth projections.Good recovery in economy still plausible baseline.Don’t have dramatic weakening of the economy. The EURUSD has rebounded in early US trading and is up testing the falling 100 bar moving average on the five minute chart

ECBs Villeroy is the latest ECB member to speak and says: See full optionality for December rate meetingDoes not see the ECB behind the curve. Earlier ECBs Lagarde said she is satisfied with the inflation progress. ECB’s Nagel said that the central bank is more or less on track to meet its 2% inflation target,

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to reign supreme despite the lack of catalysts. The main culprit for the recent strength in the US Dollar has been the rally in long term Treasury yields. The yield curve is bear flattening which is what you would expect with higher growth and potentially higher inflation expectations. The catalyst

On the day: Stoxx 600 -0.3%German DAX -0.2%Francis CAC -0.5%UK’s FTSE 100 -0.6%Spain’s Ibex +0.2%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.1% The Nasdaq is trading at the lows of the day, down 1.1%. Nvidia shares are a laggard, down 2.5%. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

In the kickstart video, I take a look at the 3 major currencies from a technical perspective. The trend is for the USD moving higher with the USDJPY leading the way once again. Below is the summary: EURUSD: The EURUSD has continued its downward movement after holding below its 200-day moving average on Monday. Yesterday

Macklem’s opening statement was pre-released, these are the highs of the Q&A with the media: Core inflation is easing as expectedOur growth forecast hasn’t changed a great dealWe’re going to be particularly focused on inflation and growth dataThere was a ‘clear consensus’ on cutting 50 bps todayExpect there will be further cuts if things unfold

The forex markets has the USD moving higher as the NA sesssion begins. The moves are being led by the USDJPY (and JPY crosses) with a gain of 1.24% after it broke back above its 200-day MA for the first time since July 31. After moving down from 161.94 to 139.57 from July to September

The press conference will begin at 10:30 am ET but the opening statement was pre-released: We took a bigger step today because inflation is now back to the 2% target and we want to keep it close to the target.Price pressures are no longer broad-basedWe need to stick the landingHousehold spending and business investment have

After Close: Enphase Energy (ENPH)Baker Hughes (BKR): Estimate EPS $0.60. Revenues $7.211 billionSeagate Technology (STX): Estimate EPS $1.48. Revenues $2.129 billionTexas Instruments (TXN) Est. EPS $1.37 Revenues $4.12 billion Wednesday Before Open: Boeing (BA)AT&T (T)Coca-Cola (KO)Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO)CME Group (CME)Boston Scientific (BSX)General Dynamics (GD) After Close: Tesla (TSLA)Lam Research (LRCX)IBM (IBM)ServiceNow (NOW)Viking Therapeutics (VKTX)T-Mobile

Headlines: USD/JPY extends gains to nearly 1% on the day nowUSDJPY Technical Analysis – Higher Treasury yields revive the carry tradeEquities stay more sluggish as rising yields keeps optimism in checkEUR/USD continues its descent to test the early August lowECB reportedly starting to debate whether rates need to go below neutral in latest cycleGermany turns

Here’s a snapshot of thing currently: Eurostoxx -0.2%Germany DAX -0.1%France CAC 40 -0.4%UK FTSE -0.2%S&P 500 futures -0.2%Nasdaq futures -0.2%Dow futures -0.4% The declines aren’t anything too significant and can still be seen as investors just taking some off the top from the surging gains before this. But rising yields is definitely a threat that

McDonald’s (MCD) info comes via Street Insider CDC: Severe E. Coli Outbreak Linked To McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) Outbreak in Mountain West States 49 People from 10 States Have Gotten Sick One Older Person in Colorado has Died This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Crude oil inventories +5474K vs +270K expGasoline inventories +878K vs -1212K expDistillates inventories -1140K vs -1679K expRefinery utilization +1.8% versus expectations of -0.3% Oil was in the midst of a nice intraday bounce before this data but there has been some selling since. Private oil inventories released late yesterday: Crude +1643KGasoline -2019KDistillates -1478K This article

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences calls for 2tln yuan bond issuance to stabilize stocksEuropean Central Bank President Lagarde speaking today. Lane, Stournaras, Cipollone alsoBank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden speaking Wednesday, October 23, 2024Federal Reserve speakers today include Bowman, BarkinTokyo Stock Exchange employee under investigation for suspected insider tradingBank of Japan Governor Ueda is

I’ve been listening to corporate conference calls closely for hints about macroeconomic weakness. Railways have great insight into the goods macroeconomy, which has been struggling since the covid boom. Some comments in the conference call yesterday highlight caution on the Canadian economy but there are also comments on the US, where it generates about one

Here are the key forecast changes (July 2024 → October 2024): GDP growth: 2024: 1.2% → 1.2% (unchanged)2025: 2.1% → 2.1% (unchanged)2026: 2.4% → 2.3% (slight decrease) CPI Inflation: 2024: 2.6% → 2.5% (decrease)2025: 2.4% → 2.2% (decrease)2026: 2.0% → 2.0% (unchanged) Core Inflation (by Q4): 2024: 2.4% → 2.3% (decrease)2025: 2.0% → 2.1% (slight

ECBs Lagarde is speaking and says: She is satisfied with inflation progressThe ECB needs to be cautious Although the ECB did cut rates at the last meeting, the consistent post-decision reaction is to get back on the fence.See Adam’s post here. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -17.0%Market index 214.8 vs 230.2 priorPurchase index 131.3 vs 138.4 priorRefinance index 672.6 vs 734.6 prior30-year mortgage rate 6.52% vs 6.52% prior Another week, another plunge in mortgage applications as higher rates continue to weigh on the market. Both purchases and refinancing activity fell sharply with the latter once again sliding hard in the

The break below the 200-day moving average (blue line) last week turned the bias in the pair to being more bearish. And sellers reaffirmed that by holding at the key level amid some pushing and pulling towards the end of last week. Flip over to the new week and it’s been rather one-way traffic with

On the Fed schedule today, we will have Barkin at noon ET and the Beige Book at 2 pm. Note that the sour tone of the previous Beige Book that helped to tilt the Fed towards 50 bps in September. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The Bank of Canada cut right by 50 basis points which was as expected. The central bank wants to keep inflation near 2%. The focus is to maintain low, stable inflation while increasing growth. The central bank lowered the CPI forecast for 2024 and 2025. Core inflation was also lowered. Technically, the price action has

The major US stock indices are trading lower. The Dow and the S&P are on pace for their third consecutive losing day. Remember all three indices are working on six weeks of gains. That string is at risk with more than half of the trading week remaining. A snapshot of the market currently shows: Dow

The report says that ECB policymakers have already begun debating at what level do interest rates need to go in order to start stimulating the economy. The sources did say that any consensus is still a long way off though but it marks a significant turning point in the latest cycle, which could see the

I’m pretty confident inflation will hit 2% in 2025.We can take our foot off the brake if the base case holds.It’s logical to assume a recovery in consumption.Consumer recovery will take a bit longer.Structural undershoot of the 2% goal is not a risk now.Large economic deterioration is needed for bigger cuts.The biggest slowdown in wages

Peanut launches the first self-custodial offramp, allowing users to directly cash out any token on 20+ EVM chains to their bank accounts—without relying on centralized exchanges. This beta feature is being rolled out in the EU and US first. This new beta feature creates an important bridge between crypto and fiat. Users can cash out

Japan’s Securities and Exchange Surveillance Commission is investigating the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSX) employee. allegedly bought and sold stocks based on undisclosed corporate informationa man in his 20ssuspected of providing information on listed companies’ tender offers multiple times this year to a relative of hisat least several hundreds of thousands of yen worth of profit

Scholz will be leading a high-level delegation for government consultations, but it is clear that the major forum will be to work out more business between Germany and India. It comes at a delicate time, especially with the German economy struggling and still largely being reliant on China demand for some key sectors. German economy

Fundamental Overview The Nasdaq has been consolidating around the all-time high as the lack of catalysts and the pressure from rising Treasury yields kept the market at bay. We are now near the US elections and it’s going to be a major event for the market. A Trump victory will likely give the stock market

USD/JPY looks to be in the mood as it surges higher and is now closing in on the 152.00 level. The pair is pushing higher with the yen sliding as Japanese stocks are also dragged lower on the day. The Nikkei is now down 1.4% with little other catalysts driving overall sentiment for the currency.

The report is from the Financial Times, gated, but Reuters summarise: Volkswagen’s China chief marketing officer and head of product strategy, Jochen Sengpiehl, was deported back to Germany after being detained in China for about 10 days allegedly tested positive for drugs after a holiday abroad There is a little more at that link above.

Bank of Canada meeting outcome is due on Wednesday, October 23, 2024: at 1345 GMT / 0945 US Eastern timepress conference follows 45 minutes later Earlier: Bank of Canada expected to cut by 50 basis points and continue cuts to end-2025 *** In a note from TD, analysts predict that the Bank of Canada (BoC)

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. The size of the expiries is noteworthy but it might not feature too much into play as the dollar is keeping firmer this week. Besides that, there is the 100-hour moving

Via Twitter from Charles Gasparino at FOX Business This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

These are the scheduled speakers from the ECB, but a few more may well pop up in media interviews etc. Times below are GMT/US Eastern time: 0900/0500 ECB policymaker Yannis Stournaras addresses economic conference. Stournaras is Governor of the Bank of Greece. 1400/1000 Participation by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde in a fireside chat

I’m not sure I believe any of these reports but Israel’s Channel 12 is out with a report saying the IDF has completed its preparations to attack Iran and that it will happen within days. WTI crude is up $1.74 to $72.30 today. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

News posted earlier: CDC: Severe E. Coli Outbreak Linked To McDonald’s (MCD) MCD shares were smashed, as you’d respect. Latest from the CDC: Cases: 49 Hospitalizations: 10 Deaths: 1 States: 10 This is a fast-moving outbreak investigation. Most sick people are reporting eating Quarter Pounder hamburgers from McDonald’s and investigators are working quickly to confirm

German DAX futures flatFrench CAC 40 futures -0.1%UK FTSE futures -0.2% Stocks remain in a more pensive mood overall with S&P 500 futures also down 0.1% currently. This follows from the back and forth mood yesterday, although equities ended up paring early losses before the close. It’s still all to play for on the week

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to reign supreme despite the lack of catalysts. The main culprit for the recent strength in the US Dollar has been the rally in long term Treasury yields. The yield curve is bear flattening which is what you would expect with higher growth and potentially higher inflation expectations. The catalyst

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to reign supreme despite the lack of catalysts. The main culprit for the recent strength in the US Dollar has been the rally in long term Treasury yields. The yield curve is bear flattening which is what you would expect with higher growth and potentially higher inflation expectations. The catalyst

Fundamental Overview The S&P 500 has been consolidating around the all-time high as the lack of catalysts and the pressure from rising Treasury yields kept the market at bay. We are now near the US elections and it’s going to be a major event for the market. A Trump victory will likely give the stock

Futures were down more than 30 points today but bids came at the open and now the S&P 500 has fought its way all the way back to flat. The Nasdaq is up 0.2%. Rising bond yields had the market a bit off balance but with stocks on a six-week winning streak, the bulls are

Eurostoxx +0.1%Germany DAX flatFrance CAC 40 flatUK FTSE +0.1%Spain IBEX +0.2%Italy FTSE MIB +0.2% S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures are flattish, so that’s not giving too much to work with. It’s another slow day in Europe to start with, although the yen is still keeping things interesting in FX. USD/JPY is trading up to

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr will speak about monetary policy to the Peterson Institute 1pm US Eastern time on Wednesday1700 GMT 6am New Zealand time on Thursday The RBNZ has begun its rate cut cycle with 75bp lower so far and more to come. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

The dollar continuing to keep steadier on the week is helping to solidify the latest upside run in the pair, though the move today is largely driven by a much softer yen side of the equation. USD/JPY isn’t the only yen pair on the move, with others also rising by some 0.7% to 0.8% currently.

Reuters report on a survey from UK hiring firm BrightMine. In summary: UK median pay awards held steady at 4% in three months to September (prev: 4% in August)Expected median pay rise for year ahead drops to 3% vs 6% in 2023Public sector pay awards unchanged at 5.5%Survey covered 64 pay awards affecting 433k employeesForward

The Institute of Finance at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) has published its latest Macroeconomic Financial Analysis Report, for Q3 2024, The think tanks suggests issuing 2 trillion yuan in special government bonds. This would be help establish a stock market stabilization fund. CASS is an organ of the PRC’s State Council. This

Shares of Starbucks are down nearly 6% after hours following a weak report on preliminary Q4 earnings. Global comp sales -7%US comp sales -6%China comparable store sales declined 14% This could be a sign of a weakening consumer but I think it’s more about Starbucks losing its cool. The company also suspended its guidance for

The USD is higher against JPY, CHF, AUD, NZD, CAD. It’s a touch higher against GBP and EUR but not as noticeably. Apart from what has been p[posted terhe is no fresh ews or data. USD, DXY, index: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

The Bank of Canada rate decision is on Wednesday and a strong consensus has formed around the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut. It would be the first jumbo rate cut of the cycle that started in June and has seen three 25 bps cuts so far. The OIS market is priced for a

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly with Twitter posts: More: We must stay vigilant and be intentional, continually assessing the economy and balancing both of our mandated objectives: fully delivering on 2% inflation while ensuring that the labor market remains in line with full employment. That is a soft landing. This is

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

No fresh news to report out of Japan. No intervention type comments. Its only just pasty 9am in Tokyo though so maybe later. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda to speak at IMF-hosted “Governors Talk” session 1100 GMT on Wednesday, October 23, 2024 0700 US Eastern time This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spoke on Tuesday at a press conference at the start of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings in Washington. “Our view has been that raising consumer spending in China as a share of GDP (gross domestic product) is really important, along with measures to address problems in

The Japanese yen is the main mover as we look towards European trading, with key technical resistance levels starting to give way for yen pairs in general. That is keeping things interesting in an otherwise lackluster last two European morning sessions. From earlier: Yen pairs keeping things interesting on the week Major currencies are lightly

EPS $1.47 versus $1.38 estimateRevenues $4.15 billion versus $4.12 billion Forward guidance: Q4 revenues $3.7 billion – $4 billion versus estimate $4.08 billionEPS estimate $1.07 – $1.29 versus expectations of $1.35 Shares are down -1.54% as the market reacts to the forward guidance This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Inflation data from Singapore is about it. Due at 0100 US Eastern time. Oil inventory data is due from the US, the private survey, just after 4.30 pm US Eastern time. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs sees 4.30% in 10-year yields as a line in the sand for risk appetiteECB’s Lagarde: Can’t jump to conclusion that inflation target is a done dealECB’s Holzmann: Disinflation is faster than expectedECB’s Rehn: Growth outlook has weakened and this could increase deflationary pressureECB’s Villeroy: There is a risk of undershooting 2% target, especially

Morgan Stanley AlphaWise Consumer Pulse Survey in late September, with 2,000 consumer respondents. In summary: 49% of consumers expect the Chinese economy to improve in the next six months, down from 55% in June13% to get worse, +1% 38% said they expect the economy to stay the same, +5% Household spending intentions: 25% of consumers

Goldman Sachs with a view on the euro, running ‘tariff’ scenarios for the US election outcome: if the Republican party win the presidency and Congress could lead to higher tariffs 10% U.S. tariff on all imports20% on Chinese productstax cutswould likely push up inflationwould likely lead to Federal Reserve interest rate rises, to US rates

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Key Points: Forecasts $76/bbl average for 2025 on moderate surplusMaintains $70-85/bbl range viewRisks skewed to downside due to high spare capacity, potential trade tariffsBrent spreads may be underpricing near-term physical tightness Geopolitical factors: Limited risk premium despite Israel-Iran tensionsHigh OPEC+ spare capacity providing bufferIran oil production remains undisruptedMid East conflict keeps supply risks in play

Oilprice.com on Twitter: — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +0.3mn barrelsDistillates -1.7 mn bblsGasoline -1.2 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API): It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time. The two reports

UBS are not overly bearish on EUR/USD. Analysts at UBS Global Wealth Management expect that while eurozone economic data is likely top be missed, the see stronger data impacting euro more than weak data will. investor sentiment is very downbeat, and thus better data would be the bigger surprise a series of European Central Bank

The major stock indices had another mixed close with the S&P and Dow industrial average lower while the NASDAQ index rose modestly: Dow industrial average -6.71 points or -0.02% and 42924.89S&P index -2.78 points or -0.05% and 5851.20.NASDAQ index up 33.12 points or 0.18% at 18573.13Russell 2000 down -8.18 points or -0.37% at 2231.52 Texas

The central bank talk has been non-stop today and now Rehn is adding a few dovish lines: Rate cuts are coming, speed and scope to be decided later This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It’s the time in the cycle when everything that happens in markets is tied back to politics. I looked at Trump trades on Thursday and aside from some pockets, it’s tough to make the argument that’s the major driver, let alone in stocks or bonds. But how about the biggest market in the world? One

I am listening to CNBC and the pundits are mostly spewing How the stock market is overbought. How the stock growth rate over the next 10-years will average 3% per year. How Trump winning will be bullish (PS everyone was bearish in 2016 when he was elected and it lasted about 1/2 a day). How

Centeno says he still expects inflation to tick up This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is on the way out as Canadian Prime Minister one way or the other. The only question is: When? Canada will hold an election sometime between now and next October as the Federal government’s term runs out and if Trudeau leads the Liberals into that vote he will be decimated.

Massive stimulus measures implemented by governments to support their economies during the pandemic and following supply chain disruptions have led to increased money supply and rising inflation. Over the past two years, central banks have addressed this problem by tightening monetary policy, mainly through interest rate hikes aimed at cooling demand and bringing prices back

Closing changes in Europe: Stoxx 600 -0.2%German DAX -0.1%France CAC flatUK FTSE 100 -0.1%Spain IBEX -0.1%Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.6% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Inflation could be at target in early 2025The ECB is not behind the curve but risk of cutting rates too late is bigger than cutting too earlyNo reason for rates to stay restrictive in 2025 Lagarde was a bit more dovish today and these comments are as well. I don’t think that puts 50 bps

Financial system held up in face of aggressive central bank rate risesFalling interest rates should ease debt burdens There isn’t anything to move the euro here. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The forex markets are showing ups and downs after the USD moved higher yesterday helped by rising interest rates . Currently rates are of modestly higher the front end and down modestly near the end of the yield curve. US stocks are lower as geopolitical risks of tensions between Iran and Israel increase. Oil is

Sector Overview Today’s US stock market heatmap reveals a day of mixed movement, with the technology sector facing notable challenges while financials show resilience. The technology sector, particularly semiconductors and consumer electronics, are seeing significant drops, whereas some pockets in finance and energy demonstrate stability. 📉 Tech Sector: Under Pressure The semiconductor space is experiencing

The price of crude oil futures are trading higher by $1.73 or 2.47% at $71.78. The move to the upside has the price testing its 200-hour moving average at $71.76. A move above is needed to increase the bullish bias with the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the October 7 high at $72.10

Nagel spoke about the upcoming strategic review and said the ECB needs to improve how policy intentions are communicated but that a Fed-style dot plot system is not desirable. I tend to agree with him on this, the dot plot has eroded Fed credibility rather than enhancing it. I think Fed forecasts are useful but

1400 GMT/1000 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker speaks on “Fintech” before the Eighth Annual Fintech Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. We had a series of Fed speakers on Monday and into Asia morning on Tuesday: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 21 Oct; The 10 year

“We are not unhappy with what we have seen,” on inflation.Hopes inflation can get back to target sooner than projectedInflation numbers are relatively reassuringWe “absolutely confident” in hitting inflation target sustainably in the course of 2025 but not sure whenWe have to be very sharp in evaluating services inflationEuropean consumers don’t consumer as much as

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Earlier today I wrote: AUDUSD: The 50% midpoint of the move up from the August low comes in at 0.6645 and the low reached 0.6650 at the start of the new trading day today. The bounce higher has moved to a swing area between 0.6685 to 0.6695. At the 0.6695 level is also the key

China stimulus measures announced by the PBOC are not sufficient to lift growth in a substantially material way Goldman Sachs and others have been highlighting this as well. There are certainly some things for the stock market but it’s tough to disconnect the stock market from the real economy, especially with the risk of Trump

The dollar is keeping more mixed with light changes being observed overall. There’s not much appetite or follow through, as traders are keeping a watchful eye on the bond market for anything. USD/JPY is one to pay attention to as such but is running up against a key resistance region as outlined here. Besides that,

Global growth 3.2% vs 3.2% in July forecast US growth seen at 2.3% for 2024 vs 2.6% in JulyUS 2025 growth seen at 2.2% for 2025 vs 1.9% in July China growth at 4.8% for 2024 vs 5.0% in JulyEuro Zone growth at 0.8% for 2024 vs 0.9% in July, 1.2% for 2025 vs 1.5%

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

Treasury yields are still marginally higher after hitting the highest since late July. US 10s are up 1 basis point to 4.19% now and the stock market doesn’t like it or yesterday’s rise. Breadth was terrible in equities yesterday as Nvidia carried the market and the Russell 2000 fell 1.5% S&P 500 futures are down

The EURUSD sellers are making a play in the US session with the price moving below the low from last week at 1.08103. The price has moved to a low of 1.0800, bounced back to 1.08148 but is back down to 1.0806. Buyers and seller battle. If the sellers play to the downside is for

That comment in quote marks is via Mizuho in their weekly outlook. “Verbal intervention threat rises as USD/JPY rises above 150.” That is pertinent for the session here today for sure, with USD/JPY having gained mover than 150 points since its Asia time low on Monday. Also pertinent from the same analysts is this: Buoyancy

In the above video, I take a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs EURUSD: The EURUSD held below the 200-day MA and 61.8% of the move up from the June low near 1.0874 yesterday (bearish). The price low yesterday and today is pushing toward the low from last week at 1.0810. Move below

Rates cut was appropriate and others will followIt’s possible inflation is coming down faster than expected This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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Stocks dribble lower in European morning tradeMajor currencies not doing much so far on the sessionBonds under the spotlight with little else to focus onEuropean equities mostly a touch softer at the open todayWhat are the main events for today?Eurostoxx futures +0.1% in early European tradingFX option expiries for 22 October 10am New York cutBOE

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The USDCAD has been racing to the upside over the last few weeks with the low price at 1.3472 back on October 2. The high price yesterday reached 1.38475 on October 21. That’s a big move in a relatively short amount of time. The price also reached to a new high going back to August

Earlier today in a post I summarized the technical for the USDCHF by writing: USDCHF: The USDCHF remains above the 38.2% of the move down from the July high at 0.86318. Yesterday support buyers came in against the level increasing its importance going forward. Stay above is bullish. Move below and I would expect some

A nonpartisan report compared Harris and Trump policies. In brief: reserve fund for Social Security would run empty by 2031 under Trumpruns empty in 2034 under Harris”Social Security is nine years from insolvency, and neither campaign has a plan to solve it” “But President Trump’s plans would make it much, much worse.” The report is

Risks to growth in the UK are two-wayWouldn’t put too much weight on the latest fall in UK CPI as it may be driven by volatile componentsSigns of inflation persistence are going in the right direction but it’s a question of speed Greene wrote yesterday about a cautious and gradual approach to easing. This article

Services index +3 vs -1 last month Manufacturing shipments -8 vs -18 last month Other details: Employment -17 vs -22 last monthWages 16 vs 15 last monthPrices paid 2.70 vs 3.36 last monthPrices received 1.71 vs 1.57 last monthNew orders -17 vs -23 last monthBacklog of orders -14 vs -16 last monthCapacity utilization -11 vs

Torsten Slok is chief economist at Apollo Management. Voicing what many are seeing is super-obvious but nevertheless ignored in the thirst-trap of seeking lower rates: bottom line is that the expansion continuesAtlanta Fed currently estimates third-quarter (3Q) GDP growth of 3.4%US remaining on a no landing trajectory — economy keeps growing and inflation reignitescontinued support

In most cases, yields will tend to trend lower in the early stages of the Fed’s rate cutting cycle. But this isn’t like those cases, at least for the time being. There is something driving yields back higher and that is catching the market attention again since the start of the month. Is it the

It was a tough one for the bond bulls on Monday as the 10-year ratcheted above the 200-day moving average for the first time since July. I wrote about bonds earlier in the day and the idea that they were pricing out a recession but it’s tough to argue that’s still the trade as the

Aoki is Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary: No comment on FX moves Hayashi adds: yen moves have positive and negative aspects – These are very mild comments. USD/JPY is circa 150.75 and barely off its session high This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -0.8%Producer prices -0.9% y/y vs +0.2% priorRaw materials price index -3.1% vs -3.1% priorRaw materials price index -8.8% y/y This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Gold rallied to a fresh high yesterday then quickly fell $25 on profit taking. It steadied in Asia and began the climb again and has just broken to a fresh record. I fear there is some pre-election buying of gold that could unwind after the decision, particularly if Congress is split (which should somewhat restrain

The US major indices are all lower at the open with the NASDAQ leading the way to the downside: a snapshot of market currently shows: Dow industrial average down -86 72 points or -0.20% at 42844.88S&P index down -26.09 points or -0.45% at 5827.89NASDAQ index down -90.43 points are -0.49% at 18449.58 the small-cap Russell

As the election approaches, there is concerns about the deficit. Fed’s Kashkari is saying that Rising budget deficit would on the margin mean interest rates would be higher. How all the dust settles is still up in the air as much may also depend on the split in the House and the Senate. Nevertheless, deficits

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

European indices are also all in negative territory, with the DAX also down by 0.1% after a decent open earlier. Other major indices in the region are down some 0.6% to 0.8% with the negative mood also reflected in US futures. S&P 500 futures are down 0.5% with Nasdaq futures down 0.6% currently. In the

Today we have another slow day on the data front with just a couple of low tier releases. We will get the Canadian PPI and the US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Both of them aren’t market moving releases and they won’t change anything in terms of market pricing. Economic data: 12:30 GMT/08:30 ET – Canada

Fundamental Overview The lack of catalysts recently kept the US Dollar supported across the board despite the slowdown in momentum. The market might now be looking forward to the first weeks of November when we will get the key economic data, the FOMC decision and the US elections. There’s been also a good argument that

A bit of a different take on the ECB rate cut. In a recent note, PIMCO highlighted that while the European macroeconomic outlook is softer than anticipated, risk management continues to drive central bank decisions. The analysts suggested that any unexpected inflationary pressures could lead the European Central Bank (ECB) to slow the pace of

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Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin H. Nasser says the firm is bullish on China’s oil consumption Citing government stimulus measuresjet fuel demand is a bright spotsees global oil demand at more than 100 million barrels per day through 2050 Bloomberg carried his comments, but also poured some cold water on them: other market commentators

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid spoke earlier: Fed’s Schmid calls for cautious, gradual, deliberate approach to rate cuts More now: Very strong commitment at the Fed for 2% inflationFed doesn’t focus too much on anticipated shocksExpect modest cuts in upcoming quartersSays his personal opinion is that crypto is a risk asset,

The GBPUSD is trading near its lows for the day and looks to test: Low from last week at 1.29729100-day MA at 1.296061.8% retracement at 1.2958 As the day comes to a close, those levels will be key targets in the new trading day. If broken – and stays broken – it opens the door

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker speaks on TuesdayEuropean Central Bank President Lagarde speaks twice on Tuesday, Lane *2 alsoBank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaking Tuesday, Greene and Breeden alsoJapan government Aoki says no comment on FX movesChina’s $120bn effort to prop up the yuanICYMI – Saudi Aramco CEO is bullish on

German DAX futures +0.1%UK FTSE futures -0.3% US futures are down around 0.2% after a more mixed showing yesterday and that’s weighing slightly on the mood today. The bond market is one to watch out for in case of anything but later in the week, we’ll have earnings from Tesla and Amazon to set the

BOJ Executive Director Kato says want to extremely thoroughly gauge US economy, US elections, Fed policy we are not targeting fx levels but are carefully looking at upside risks from rising import prices Once again, meek comments. I posted on the earlier ones: USD/JPY above 150.90 again after meek comments from Japan This article was

There are just a couple to take note of, as highlighted in bold. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0850 level. It coincides with the 100-hour moving average currently, which is where price action was held up in trading yesterday. As such, the expiries alongside the key near-term level there should limit any

Fundamental Overview The lack of catalysts recently kept the US Dollar supported across the board despite the slowdown in momentum. The market might now be looking forward to the first weeks of November when we will get the key economic data, the FOMC decision and the US elections. There’s been also a good argument that

Fundamental Overview The lack of catalysts recently kept the US Dollar supported across the board despite the slowdown in momentum. The market might now be looking forward to the first weeks of November when we will get the key economic data, the FOMC decision and the US elections. There’s been also a good argument that

The European Central Bank appear on track for another 25bp rate cut at their next meeting on December 12. They seem to be behind the curve. Times below are GMT/US Eastern time: 1400/1000 European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde in conversation with Francine Lacqua, Bloomberg1500/1100 European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane takes part in

If anything, the chart shows that the mood music is more pensive as investors are likely waiting on more action by Beijing. That especially a follow through on the fiscal side of things. The CSI 300 index is up 0.5% today but it’s not really noticeable from the charts. It seems to be that investors

Eurostoxx flatGermany DAX +0.3%France CAC 40 -0.2%UK FTSE -0.3%Spain IBEX -0.2%Italy FTSE MIB -0.2% SAP announced a better outlook at its earnings report after the close yesterday and that’s helping to lift the DAX a little. Besides that, the overall mood is a little on the softer side with US futures also keeping lower. S&P

I gave an alert for comments today: Eyes and ears open today – “Verbal intervention threat rises as USD/JPY rises above 150” What we got was meek indeed, barely anything: Japan government Aoki says no comment on FX moves Will there be anything else? USD/JPY is nearly at 151.00 and I’m surprised we’ve heard so

The major US stock indices are closing with mixed results. The Dow industrial average was the biggest loser with a decline of -0.80%. The NASDAQ index rose by 0.27% and the S&P was in between with a decline of -0.18%. Looking at the losers in the Dow, there were 12 of the 30 with declines

This is something I’ve highlighted with each and every UK labour market report, as seen with the latest one here. And it is something that has persisted for a year already now. In case you missed some of the posts about that: Heads up: UK labour market data later this month will have a similar

Fundamental Overview In recent days, gold has been making new highs despite the lack of bullish catalysts. Moreover, the latest leg higher diverged with real yields which climbed to new highs since last week. This divergence could point to a pullback in gold ahead of the Flash US PMIs on Thursday, and if we get

New Zealand trade data not moving NZ dollar upon release, around 0.6030 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China’s FX regulator is the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE). They’ve published data for year-to-date sales of foreign currency by commercial banks 121.3bn net FX sold January – September SAFE adds: yuan exchange is basiclly stable at reasonable and balanced levels FX mkt shows relatively strong resilience This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

US Social Security to run dry in 2031 under Trump and 2034 under HarrisMixed bag for the major US indices. Nasdaq up, but S&P and Dow downUS 10-year yields rise above the 200-day moving averageCrude oil futures settle at $70.56Even more from Kashkari: Excess savings have been spent downCiti upgrades 0 to 3-month-old forecast for

I posted earlier to expect verbal intervention today: Eyes and ears open today – “Verbal intervention threat rises as USD/JPY rises above 150” Its just after 10am in Tokyo. Maybe officials aren’t out of bed yet. Or they’ve given up 😉 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

10-year Treasury yields have now climbed back up to 4.20% and looking to push past its own 200-day moving average. Is it the economy trade? The inflation trade? Or perhaps the election trade? I’m quite sympathetic to the final reasoning to be honest. And that sort of ties in with inflation, should Trump come out

In a recent note, Franklin Templeton commented on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 25 basis point rate cut, attributing the move to weak economic data and inflation falling below the 2% target. As sluggish growth persists across Europe, the firm expects the ECB to continue its rate-cutting cycle, potentially dropping rates below 2% by mid-2025.

The EURUSD is testing the low price from last Thursday at 1.08103. The low price just reached 1.08104. A break below the level will have traders looking toward the low price going back to August 1. That level comes in at 1.0777. Earlier today, the price tested the 200-day moving average in the early Asian

Excess consumer savings have been spent down.Lower credit score borrowers delinquencies are climbing.On average consumers seem like they are doing fine.Monetary policies role in bringing down inflation was probably mainly in anchoring inflation expectations, not on reducing demand. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Fed speakers coming up in the US afternoon/evening: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on the economic and monetary policy outlook before hybrid event hosted by the Chartered Financial Analyst Society, Kansas CityFederal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly participates in a moderated question-and-answer session at the 2024 WSJ

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly participates in a moderated question-and-answer session at the 2024 WSJ Tech Live: Says Fed will continue to adjust policy50 bps cut was meant to right-size policy, expect additional cuts going forwardRecent fed rate cut a ‘close call’I came down strongly in favor of 50 bps cut50

The Bank of England appear to be on track for further rate cuts. The times below are GBP/US Eastern time format: 1315/0915 Bank of England MPC member Megan Greene speaks at Atlantic Council 1325/0925 Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at financial regulation event hosted in New York by Bloomberg 1915/1515 Bank of England

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid Calls for cautious, gradual, deliberate approach to rate cutsSays he prefers to avoid outsized rate cuts’reasonably confident’ inflation heading in right directionWe are seeing a normalization of labor market, not a deteriorationCurrent policy is restrictive, but not very restrictiveInterest rates will settle well above levels seen

UBS on the US election result: The election outcome may not be known for several weeks after the ballot closes on 5 November. The prospect of recounts and legal contests means that the winner might not be known before 11 December, the deadline for states to declare their electoral college votes. And even that date

Reuters report, citing unnamed sources on Fidelity International (investment management services including mutual funds, pension management and fund platforms) is cutting around 500 jobs in China: largest downsizing in recent yearscuts seem mainly in Dalian tech/operations centre This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

On Monday the People’s Bank of China lowered rates: China cuts 1 and 5 year rates by 25bp each, as expected China’s central bank lowered the reference rates for personal and business mortgages, a move that was widely anticipated. On the positive side, this highlights the government’s commitment to providing substantial economic support. However, a

Citi has upgraded its: 0 to 3 month forecast for gold to $2800 from $2700. Sets 6-12 month target to $3000 an ounce.Increases 6– 12 month target for silver from $38 an ounce to $40 an ounce Gold is currently trading near unchanged at $2720.60 Looking at the daily chart below, the price of gold

Goldman Sachs’ latest report (David Kostin, Goldman’s chief US equity strategist) on the S&P 500, in brief:Predict a 3% annualized return for the S&P 500 index over the next decade, real increase of 1%significantly lower than the index’s 13% annualized total return over the past ten yearsConsensus is around 6%, so GS is only half

More from Fed’s Kashkari: It was not the labor market that caused inflationVery few transactions happened on crypto, unless it’s drugs or illegal activityImmigration policy will affect our reading of the labor market Tariffs shouldn’t be themselves leading to ongoing inflation probably a one-time change in price levelDefinitely want to avoid a recesion.Saw signs of

Crude oil futures are settling at $70.56. That’s up $1.34 or 1.94% on the day. The low for the day reached $68.50. The high for the day reached $70.36. Looking at the daily chart, support comes and $66.76 – $67.69. Resistance between $71.44 and $72.43. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: Dollar keeps steadier so far on the sessionGold remains undaunted as the run higher continuesWeekly update on interest rate expectationsECB’s Šimkus says lower rates possible if disinflation gets entrenchedECB’s Šimkus: Policy will clearly become less restrictive from hereECB’s Kažimír says all options are on the table for December meetingGermany September PPI -0.5% vs -0.2%

Treasury yields are creeping above the top of the recent range in an unsettling move today. That’s weighed on stock futures, which are down 0.2%, and helped to lift USD/JPY by 40 pips. The question remains: How much of this is pricing out a recession and how much of it is pricing in inflation? I’m

Tech and energy sectors lead gains as semiconductors stumble Today’s US stock market displayed a mixed bag of performances, with notable strength emerging in technology and energy. Meanwhile, the semiconductor sector continued to experience turbulence. 📈 Sector Overview Technology: The technology sector showed resilience with Microsoft (MSFT) slightly down by 0.27%, while Nvidia (NVDA) rose

Chinese markets are rallying as the country’s economy demonstrates signs of improvement. While the latest data offers some optimism, significant hurdles persist. Octa Broker analyses the situation and discusses the potential implications for the People’s Bank of China’s upcoming interest rate decision. China has just released a slew of macroeconomic statistics. Although it generally looks

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The USDCAD is pushing to the upside (with the broader USD advances today) and in the process is stretching toward the high from last week at 1.3837. A move above that level would have traders targeting a swing area off the daily chart point back to 2022 between 1.3859 and 1.3898. Move above that level

The German Dax closed at record highs on Monday, Thursday and Friday last week, moving above the high close going back to September 27. Today, however, the index fell by around 1% leading the way lower for the major European indices. A snapshot of the Europe closes fo the day are showing: German Dax, -1.02%France’s

The USD is moving higher. Looking at the dollar index (DXY) the price is testing the 200 day MA at 103.79. The price moved above that level on Friday reaching a high of 103.88, before failing and rotating lower. The high has just extended to 103.803. Get and stay above to 200 day MA, and

The major US indices moved higher last week and in doing so extended they went straight 26 consecutive weeks. That’s the longest streak in 2024. To start the new trading week, stock are marginally lower with declines around -0.10% in the three major indices: Dow industrial average -54 points or -0.13% at 43220S&P index -5.4

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The US dollar is at the best levels of the day across the board as US 10-year yields extend their gain to 8 bps and 4.15%, which is also the highest since late July. USD/JPY is approaching last week’s high and a break of it would be the best level since late July. This article

The USD continues to move higher today, and the NZDUSD is not missing out on the run higher. A chief fundamental catalysts is the the 10-year note yield which is up 10.5 basis points on the day and now up around 55 basis points since the Fed cut. The 2-year yield is up 45 basis

Its another day of a multitude of Federal Reserve speakers. I expect all of these four to give indications of the policy views. I posted this earlier, thoughts of a November and/or December pause are not going away: Will the Federal Reserve pause in November and (or) December – Citi with the heads up Times

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.0885 level. It isn’t one that holds much technical significance, especially with the 100-hour moving average at 1.0866 pinning price action down for now. But it could play a role in limiting any

The AUDUSD traded above and below the 100-day MA last week at 0.9695. The price moved above the MA on Thursday/Friday and closed above that MA tilting the bias in the buyers favor. However, today, the price moved below the MA in the European session and stayed below in the US session. What I like

Domestic sight deposits CHF 454.1 bn vs CHF 459.4 bn prior Swiss sight deposits fell again in the past week, continuing to keep within levels seen in the last few months after a slight rise towards the end of September. Here’s a look at the trend: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was -0.2%Six-month decline accelerates to 2.6%, worse than previous 2.2% fall This index isn’t a market mover but it’s a decent 10,000 ft view on the economy and shows why the Fed is in an easing cycle. “Weakness in factory new orders continued to be a major drag on the US LEI in September

Cannot predict outcome of December’s meetingRisks to economic growth are skewed to the downsideServices inflation remains highBut disinflation trend is on a stable track Nothing that hasn’t already been said since the policy decision last week. But as things stand, traders have fully priced in a 25 bps rate cut for December with ~118 bps

December meeting is wide openWill be in a strong position to ease further if accelerated pace of disinflation continuesIncreasingly confident that disinflation path is on solid footingBut still need more evidence, especially on services inflation Well, unless the economy miraculously bounces back in the final quarter of the year, it will be tough for the

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The ranges for the day aren’t overly interesting but the dollar is seen holding a slight edge in European morning trade. It comes as Treasury yields are pushing higher as well, allowing for some light action on the session. USD/JPY is now marked up by 0.3% to 149.95 from a low of 149.10 in Asia

This is via eFX: *** Synopsis: MUFG discusses the increasing likelihood of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) implementing another rate hike before the end of the year, driven by recent economic indicators and financial market performance. Key Points: • Yen Weakness and USD/JPY Levels: The Japanese yen has given back nearly 50% of the gains

Comments from Logan: Fed will need to be nimble with mon pol choicesEconomy is strong and stableSees downside risk to job market, ongoing risks to inflation goalBalance sheet cuts and rate cuts working in same directionLiquidity still abundant in money marketsOver time wants ‘negligible’ balances in reverse repo facilityFed could change reverse repo rate if

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 43 bps (92% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 143 bps ECB: 30 bps (81% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 143 bps BoE: 44 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) 2025: 143 bps BoC: 81 bps (99%

Business contacts are optimistic, aware of risksI pay a lot of attention to financial conditions indexes Financial conditions are easing in stocks but tightening in bonds but when the Fed says ‘financial conditions’, it’s 90% weighted to bonds. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The BOE’s Megan Greene wrote a column in the FT. UK consumption recovery lags behind other developed economiesUK savings rate high at 10% vs 5% in the USThree factors damping UK consumption: Precautionary savings due to cost of living crisisRestrictive monetary policyInterest rate changes impacting household incomesDiscretionary spending remains below pre-pandemic levelsHigher interest rates incentivize

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Hauser speaks in a ‘fireside chat’ format at the CBA 2024 Global Markets Conference in Sydney: At midday Sydney time, which is 0100 GMT and 2100 US Eastern time I haven’t got a topic for the chat. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

To start the new trading week, the buyers are holding onto control, but for the EURCHF, the sellers are holding the stronger hand (and in control). USDCHF: Last week, the USDCHF moved above its 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July high to the September low at 0.86318. Midweek, the price tested that

German DAX futures -0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.1% It’s all to play for in the new week with the DAX in particular hoping to keep at fresh record highs. US futures are more muted today, keeping relatively flattish currently. Key earnings releases are back on the cards with Tesla, Boeing, and Amazon to watch out for

Major currencies are more muted in general to start the day, with only the yen sitting slightly higher. USD/JPY is down 0.2% to 149.23 as the pair starts to show some signs of exhaustion after testing waters above 150.00 last week. Price action is now sitting under both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages at

The week starts quietly on Monday with no significant economic events scheduled for the FX market. On Tuesday, the U.S. will release the Richmond manufacturing index, offering some early insights into the country’s industrial performance. Wednesday’s focus will be on Canada, where the BoC is set to announce its monetary policy decision. In the U.S.,

I posted this on gold a little earlier: UBS like gold higher, point to history indicating up to a further 10% rise UBS riding the trend. Gold has just hit a fresh record high: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

As the new trading week begins, the USD buyers are exerting their control. EURUSD: The EURUSD sellers (USD buyers) are moving away from the 100 hour MA at 1.08623, the 200 day MA at 1.0871, the 61.8% of the move up from the end of June low at 1.08746. The current prices trading at 1.08539.

The People’s Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead. USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected

S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% and we’re on a six-week winning streak. In that time, the index has gained 8.45% despite the election uncertainty. If you read Friday’s Goldman Sachs note, then that is as good as it will get for a long time. “We estimate the S&P 500 will deliver an annualized nominal

People’s Bank of China sets Loan Prime Rates (LPR), a rate cut as expected 1 year to 3.10% from 3.35% 5 year to 3.6% from 3.85% —- Preview of this was here: Heads up for a rate cut from China expected on Monday, October 21, 2024 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Fundamental Overview The lack of catalysts recently kept the US Dollar supported across the board despite the slowdown in momentum. The market might now be looking forward to the first weeks of November when we will get the key economic data, the FOMC decision and the US elections. There’s been also a good argument that

Fundamental Overview Last Friday, the PBoC announced new easing measures which included further rate cuts and stock buyback funding. Moreover, we got some positive economic data with Retail Sales and Industrial Production beating expectations by a big margin. These catalysts provided support for copper which erased most of last week’s losses. Copper Technical Analysis –

Today marks the official launch of KERORO, a new meme coin built on the Solana blockchain, which has debuted with a market cap of $4.5 million. Positioned within the meme coin market, KERORO draws on Solana’s high-speed, low-cost transaction capabilities to establish itself as a community-driven project. KERORO’s Vision and Mission KERORO, inspired by the

Fundamental Overview The lack of catalysts recently kept the US Dollar supported across the board despite the slowdown in momentum. The market might now be looking forward to the first weeks of November when we will get the key economic data, the FOMC decision and the US elections. There’s been also a good argument that

He is saying that interest rates could be lowered to below the “natural level” in the latest cycle, that is if disinflation becomes more entrenched in the euro area. I reckon that goes without saying but we’re not quite pushing the boundaries of that narrative for now at least. This article was written by Justin

The push higher on Friday reaffirms the continued positive momentum in gold, one that has been quite unrelenting in 2024. That has also helped to turn a recovery in silver in the last two months, with the precious metal itself rising to $34 today. As for gold, it is looking to extend to fresh record

This week is pretty empty on the data front and today we have absolutely nothing on the calendar. Kind of a synthetic Sunday if you will. We will just hear from some Fed speakers but it’s unlikely that they will tell us something new. Central bank speakers: 12:55 GMT/08:55 ET – Fed’s Logan (neutral –

In a note last week from Standard Chartered analysts at the bank said oil market sentiment, especially among speculative traders, is highly bearish, similar to levels seen in 2008 during the Global Financial Crisis. Concerns centre on expectations of macroeconomic hard landings, weak oil demand, fears of oversupply in 2025 Stan Chart say that the

Prior +0.2%PPI -1.4% vs -1.0% y/y expectedPrior -0.8% A fall in energy prices was the main drag as if you exclude that, producer prices were seen down just 0.1% on the month. Looking at the details, there were declines for prices for intermediate goods (-0.2%) while capital goods and durable consumer goods were unchanged. Meanwhile,

People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Via Nick Timiraos at the Wall Street Journal, a sneak peek early look at PCE inflation forecasts. Timiraos adds: Economists who map the CPI and PPI into the PCE think core inflation for the Fed’s preferred gauge will be around 0.26% in September, a touch below the Sept CPI (which was 0.31%) but the highest

UBS raised its 2024 and 2025 GDP growth forecasts for China, citing faster-than-expected GDP growth in 3Q, and recent government policy support announcements Forecasts now: GDP growth for 4Q to rise to 6.5% q/qGDP growth for 4Q to rise to remain at 4.6% y/yFull-year 2024 real GDP growth raised to 4.8% (prior forecast 4.6%)2025 real

Eurostoxx -0.2%Germany DAX -0.2%France CAC 40 -0.4%UK FTSE +0.2%Spain IBEX -0.3%Italy FTSE MIB flat It’s a more pensive start overall with US futures also keeping little changed. That is not giving traders much to work with with changes in FX also relatively light currently. The DAX is down slightly but still within touching distance of

South Korea 1 – 20 October trade data: Exports -2.9% y/y semiconductor exports +36.1%cars -3.3%to China + 1.2%to the United States -2.6% to the European Union -8.9% Import -10.1% y/y Info via Reuters. – While exports declined y/y in October this comes after the September data showed exports rose for the 12th month in a

New Zealand credit card spending for September 2024 -3.2% y/y prior -3.1% -0.4% m/m prior -0.4% NZD/USD is not a lot changed in a small range only for the session so far. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The next European Central Bank monetary policy meeting is on December 12. TD are expecting another rate cut (the ECB cut by 25bp last week). TD cites: ECB officials (members of the Bank’s rate setting committee, the Governing Council) have opened up the door sidely to cutsthe data-dependent ‘one meeting at a time’ messaging is

Fuji News Network (FNN) says Japan’s LDP is unlikely to win a governing majority in Japan’s 27 October election. Japan Times does not, though, that PM Ishiba only has a low support rate. The LDP and its coalition partner are likely to remain in power. USD/JPY has lost some ground today in a small range

UBS raised its 2024 forecast for China’s full-year real GDP growth to 4.8% (from 4.6%)MUFG sees a growing case for the BoJ to raise rates again before year-endJapan election – LDP likely to remain in government with support of coalition partnerMonday will bring Federal Reserve speakers including Logan, Kashkari, Schmidt, DalyNew Zealand credit card spending

Citi comments reported by Bloomberg (gated) flah the possibility of no more rate cuts from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for the rest of this year Citigroup Inc.’s Akshay Singal, global head of short-term interest-rate trading, told Bloomberg TV that the Fed is likely to cut rates by just 25 basis points, or even