Our friend Neil Sethi from Sethi Associates brings us a note from Bank of America today that highlights some potential CTA buying: BoA sees a notable amount of likely CTA buying in the SPX on Monday with vol control funds also adding, perhaps giving a boost to markets Monday, he writes. S&P 500 futures are […]

The dollar opened with a gap higher today but has largely gave back those gains, keeping just marginally higher on the day for the most part. USD/JPY is up 0.4% to 152.00 and USD/CAD up 0.3% to 1.4340 but besides that, the changes among other dollar pairs are minimal currently. Trump’s tariff threats are once

S&P 500 futures opened for the week down just 28 points and quickly pared that to 15 points. There will be some twists and turns but the market is sensing that Trump doesn’t actually want a trade war. It took the market one minute to buy-the-dip. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

German Chancellor Scholz — who isn’t long for government — was asked if the EU is prepared for possible US tariffs and said “yes, we can act in an hour.” In reality, they will have a summit or two and make a mess of it. He was asked about tariffs because Trump said something about

Politco reports on the latest state of play as Republicans try to use a razor-thin majority in the House to cobble together a plan to deliver on Trump’s tax agenda. They highlight a fight between the bill writers and budget hawks led by Chip Roy. The report says that the latest costing on promises they’re

There was some (slim?) hope last week that the US and China would negotiate a way to avoid tariffs when there were reports about a phone call between the two. That call was evidently called off, though there is still hope the call will occur. The US additional tariff on China went into effect last

Capitalism is working as intended in the Chinese automotive market. A surge of competitors into the country is leading to intense competition that’s driving down prices and/or boosting incentives. CNBC today writes about the flurry of companies offer 0% interest loans for five years, some without even a downpayment. In addition, some are offering insurance

Happy Monday. Eamonn is off today so I’ll be sitting in. Here are the early price levels: Euro: 1.0305 (-0.0022, -0.21% change) Japanese Yen: 151.33 (-0.07, -0.05% change) British Pound: 1.2393 (-0.0016, -0.13% change) Swiss Franc: 0.9089 (-0.0005, -0.08% change) U.S. Dollar: 1.4294 (0, 0% change) Australian Dollar: 0.6262 (-0.0009, -0.14% change) New Zealand Dollar:

Reciprocal tariffs will go into effect almost immediately Trump says he will announce 25% steel and aluminum tariffs on Monday Steel and aluminum tariffs to apply to all countries Nippon Steel can’t have a majority stake in US Steel There is usually a process for this so we will see how it actually shakes down.

Does Trump want tariffs to raise revenue or does he want foreign countries to lower barriers? His comments and actions indicate he wants it both ways. On Friday, the market was concerned about the latest comments from Trump. “I’ll be announcing that next week — on reciprocal trade — so that we’re treated evenly with

China January CPI 0.5% y/y, highest level in five months expected 0.4%, prior 0.1% core was 0.6% y/y, from 0.4% in December the m/m was 0.7% (expected 0.8%, prior 0.0%) PPI -2.3% y/y, deflation continued expected -2.1%, prior -2.3% *** China’s consumer inflation accelerated in January, reaching its highest level in five months, while producer

UPCOMING EVENTS: Monday: NYFed Inflation Expectations. Tuesday: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, Fed Chair Powell Testimony. Wednesday: US CPI, Fed Chair Powell Testimony, BoC Meeting Minutes. Thursday: Japan PPI, UK GDP, Switzerland CPI, US PPI, US Jobless Claims, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI. Friday: US Retail Sales, US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization. Wednesday The

Two weeks ago, I made the case for Chinese equities in the fallout from DeepSeek. Since then, we’ve seen Goldman Sachs write that breakthroughs in AI development and application “could materially alter” the Chinese stock market trajectory. This week, Deutsche Bank also came out with a extremely bullish note, highlighting the upside of Chinese stocks

The major US stock indices are closing sharply lower for the day. The final numbers are showing: Dow industrial average -444.23 points, or -0.90% at 44303.40 S&P index -57.58 points or -0.95% at 6025.99 NASDAQ index -268.59 points or -1.36% at 19523.40 Russell 2000-27.41 points or -1.19% at 2279.70 For the trading week, the declines

Prior month -$7.49 B revised to -$5.37% US consumer credit for December came in higher than expected at $40.85B vs $12.35 B est. Revolving credit +$22.9B vs -$13.9B last month Nonrevolving credit +$18.0B vs +$8.5 B last month This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Here is the stream for the Trump-Ishida press conference: This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Pres. Trump comments Prepared to double defense spending by 2027 Approved $1B in foreign military sales for Japan Discussed how our two nations can stay on the cutting edge of artificial intelligence Japan assumed beginning 40 new shipments of American liquefied natural gas We are going to work on trade deficit with Japan We can

Fed Governor Kugler: Stable labor market gives the Fed time to make decisions Not at 2% inflation makes sense to hold rates steady Wants to make sure inflation progress continues The economy is resilient and the labor market is healthy INflation rate has gone sideways and firmed Watching money markets closely as the balance sheet

The USD moved sharply higher at the start of the week on the Canada and Mexico tariff news. Those tariffs got a reprieve and the USD moved lower. Today, the greenback was mixed after the jobs report and the Michigan consumer sentiment but for the week, the greenback was mostly lower. The only currency that

In a joint statement, Reiterate opposition by China to change the status quo by force in the East China Sea. Opposition to Chinese militarization in the South China Sea was expressed, calling for a peaceful resolution of Taiwan Strait issues. Intention was confirmed to upgrade command and control frameworks of U.S. and Japanese forces, increasing

Major US stock indices close sharply lower. US consumer credit for December $40.85B vs $12.35B estimate Details of the joint statement from Pres. Trump and Japan PM Ishiba Crude oil futures settled at $71 a barrel Trump: Japan to double defense spending by 2027. US committed to the defense of Japan Ukraine Zelenskiy to Trump:

Ukraine’s Zelenskiy is on the wires saying: Russia controls half of Ukraine’s rare earth deposits, less than 20% of Ukraine’s mineral wealth. On Trump’s call for Kyiv to supply rare earths: “Let’s do a deal,” but stresses the need for security guarantees. It is “very important” to meet U.S. President Trump in person before Trump

Crude oil futures settled $71 a barrel, up $0.39 or 0.55%. For the week, the price of crude oil has moved down -2.12% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Trudeau’s remarks: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated that U.S. President Donald Trump’s suggestion of absorbing Canada is “a real thing” and linked to Canada’s rich natural resources. Context: Trudeau made the comments during a closed-door meeting with business and labor leaders discussing Trump’s tariff threats on Canadian imports. Accidental report: The remarks were mistakenly broadcast

Joe Biden rejecting the Nippon Steel bid for US Steel based on ‘national security’ concerns marks one of the low points of his Presidency. It was a non-sensical decision at the same time as the administration was paying foreign companies to build and own chip fabs in the USA. Trump also spoke out against it,

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright was recently confirmed and spoke with CNBC just now. He was asked about oil coming in from Canada. Wright: Obviously the Canadian energy system is integrated with the US system. I don’t think we’re going to see that change. As the President has said, this is a drug war, this

Jobs report shows neither weakening nor overheating Recent progress on inflation is slow and uneven Sees considerable uncertainty on economic effects of new policy proposals Continued productivity gains would help Fed attain goals, Will watch developments closely and assess data This is yet-another victory lap and pledge to ‘wait and see’ from a Fed official.

Japan PM Ishiba and Pres. Trump are meeting in Washington. Trump says: We want to work on deficit with Japan Want to get it down to even He will make an announcement next week on recipricol trade. There are many countries that tariffs will apply Tariiffs on Japan are an option to address the deficit

Amazon shares are in focus today and are down 2.9% after reporting earnings late yesterday. Neither that, nor the 5-6 bps rise in yields across the curve is weighing too heavily on the market. S&P 500 futures are fractionally higher ahead of the open. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

More from Pres. Trump: Says that there is no rush on Gaza Want to speak to Putin Expect to talk to Zelenskiy next week. Want to discuss security of their assets like rare earths Calls Deep Seek a good development Says auto tariffs are on the table with Japan Meanwhile, as Trump talks of tariffs,

Prior +1.5%; revised to +1.3% The drop in December owes much to a decline in production in the automotive industry, which was down 10.0% compared to the month before. Excluding energy and construction, the headline reading is much worse with the decline being 3.3% compared to November. As a whole last year, German industrial production

Lowest reading since July 2024 Prior was 71.1 Current conditions 68.7 vs 73.0 expected Expectations 67.3 vs 70.0 expected 1-year inflation 4.3% vs 3.3% prior 5-year inflation 3.3% vs 3.2% prior One-year inflation expectations jumped in January to the highest since Nov 2023. That’s obviously tariff fears but the fed might take some comfort in

The January 2025 employment report is due from the US on Friday, February 7, 2025, at 0830 US Eastern time, 1330 GMT. Adam had a preview posted earlier: January non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: Positive signs abound This also: Goldman Sachs non-farm payroll preview – the underlying labor market remains solid You can see

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be under pressure as the positive tariffs talks on Monday eased the trade war fears and weighed on the greenback. In fact, trade war fears have been the only thing keeping the bid under the USD as interest rate expectations and economic data took the second place in importance.

It’s been a week! I can’t believe the Mexico/Canada tariff war was at the start of the week. In any case, the first week of February ends today with non-farm payrolls. The consensus is +170K in a decline from +256K in December but there are some indications of a stronger number. That said, eyes will

Reuters tossed a hand grenade into markets today with a report that Trump could announce reciprocal tariffs as soon as today. Let’s sort this out. … The US has low tariffs rates and most other countries have higher rates. The idea is that the US would put tariffs on those countries equal to what they

With Amazon reporting after the close yesterday, the only Magnificent 7 name left to report is Nvidia. They won’t announce earnings until February 26. Next week the earnings will be highlighted by the likes of McDonald’s, Shopify, Coca-Cola, and Moderna. Below is a scheduled list of earnings from some of the large-cap names: Monday: Before

The NZD/USD fell sharply on Monday, reaching its lowest level since October 2022, following tariff news. However, the pair rebounded after tariffs on Mexico and Canada were delayed by 30 days. The price spiked higher, retraced into a key swing area between 0.5581 and 0.5592, then bounced to extend even higher. On Wednesday, the pair

CNBC reports ‘timing of reciprocal tariffs is premature’ for today but could be on the agenda next week. The idea is some kind of order that would put tariffs of foreign countries that equal their tariffs on US goods. That said, it’s very unlikely that he has that power. This article was written by Adam

Bernd Lange, who heads the trade committee in the European parliament spoke with the Financial Times and said the bloc was willing to lower its 10% import tax on cars “closer” to the 2.5% charged by the US in an effort to avoid a trade war. “We can try to have a deal before escalating

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be under pressure as the positive tariffs talks on Monday eased the trade war fears and weighed on the greenback. In fact, trade war fears have been the only thing keeping the bid under the USD as interest rate expectations and economic data took the second place in importance.

EURUSD: In the first minute of trading after the US jobs report, the EURUSD traded a range of 1.0362 up to 1.0411. Since then, the price moved to a low of 1.0348, and then bounced to a corrective high at 1.0376 and volatile trading. Of significance technically in that corrective move higher is that 200-hour

The US dollar rose on this and stock markets fell. There are any details in the report that cites two unnamed sources saying Trump told Republican lawmakers he plans to issue reciprocal tariffs as early as Friday (today). It’s not clear who these are aimed at and the report doesn’t say. Trump has talked about

Sector Overview The US stock market today paints a mixed picture with technology stocks like Microsoft (MSFT) up by 0.14% and a surge in semiconductors as Nvidia (NVDA) climbs 0.42% and Broadcom (AVGO) shoots up by 1.60%. However, consumer cyclical sectors like Amazon (AMZN) have taken a hit, dropping by 2.99%. Technology: Boosted by gains

The US dollar is steadily bleeding lower in the aftermath of the non-farm payrolls report. The data was mixed with a softer headline but lower unemployment. Wages rose but it was due to benchmark revisions and fewer hours worked, suggesting a one-off effect. The bond market took it all as bearish, with US yields up

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be under pressure as the positive tariffs talks on Monday eased the trade war fears and weighed on the greenback. In fact, trade war fears have been the only thing keeping the bid under the USD as interest rate expectations and economic data took the second place in importance.

Reuters is talking about ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on European countries but a separate interview with White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett might offer a clearer picture of the agenda. In an interview with Bloomberg, Hassett said Trump was “reciprocity” in how firms are taxed Hassett said that in 2023, US firms paid $370 billion abroad in

Don’t see a recession right now, sees a gradual recovery Expects inflation, including services, to come down Already have wage moderation, expect that to continue March and April will be key for a clearer picture on rate path Tariff threats are a great source of uncertainty But US tariffs won’t immediately trigger a 50 bps

owe AUD/USD has experienced volatile price swings today, with the upside move testing a key swing area between 0.6287 and 0.6301—a zone where price highs have repeatedly stalled on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. A sustained break above this level is needed to strengthen the bullish bias. Conversely, if the pair remains below, focus shifts to

Ackman runs a super-concentrated fund and rarely takes new positions. This one would be worth about $2.25 for the Fund that has somewhere around $20 billion under management. Uber shares dumped on earnings earlier this week but stormed back the following day and continued higher today. This certainly won’t hurt. I can make a pretty

US stocks have moved lower after the University of Michigan preliminary estimates for consumer sentiment came in weaker at 67.8 vs 71.1 estimate. The expectations, and current conditions both fell as well. The bigggest surprise was 1- year inflation expectations surged to 4.3% from 3.3%. Worries about tariffs and the expectations for inflation from them?

Swing Trade Plan for NVDA on NFP Friday Fading the Up Move – A Short-Term Short Strategy Trade Thesis for NVDA Today NVIDIA (NVDA) has delivered its rebound after the noisy DeepSeek saga, and with Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) hitting the markets today, we anticipate increased volatility. If NVDA rallies just a little more to fill

Nissan is exploring new partnership opportunities following the collapse of merger discussions with Honda, with Taiwan’s Foxconn emerging as a potential candidate. The automaker walked away from talks after Honda proposed making Nissan a subsidiary—a move CEO Makoto Uchida opposed. Now, Nissan is seeking collaborations, particularly with technology firms, as it navigates challenges from electric

Goolsbee has been relentlessly hitting the news circuit lately. I think it will take longer than year-end to get to neutral level As inflation comes down we can commensurately cut the policy rate We will feel our way down to neutral Over the next 12-18 months, the policy rate will be ‘a fair bit below’

But we cannot declare that the job is done Need to maintain some degree of policy restriction to squeeze out price pressures Other measures of pay growth are easing but still a bit too high This is a reason for caution and carefulness in loosening policy Pill adds that they are optimistic that the upwards

Just a heads up, no word on who he met with and why. Meta Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg was at the White House on Thursday for meetings This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The U.S. jobs report will be released at 8:30 AM ET, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD trading between their 100- and 200-hour moving averages and near 50% retracement levels—technically a neutral stance. Markets await the report as a catalyst. A stronger-than-expected print (above 170K jobs, 4.1% unemployment) could trigger downside moves, while a weaker outcome may

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is in Washington today to meet with US President Trump. The countries had good relations under Trump 1.0 as Abe forged a strong relationship. This time around ,there is no strong indication that Japan is under consideration for special tariffs but there is some tension on a few fronts. Biden

I would be curious about the structure of any USD stablecoin. One of the things the US loves to do is sanction. If you have some kind of open stablecoin, it would take that power away. So instead you would have a stabelcoin that could be confiscated, which would still have a great utility, just

The January 2025 employment report is due from the US on Friday, at 0830 US Eastern time, 1330 GMT. You can see the consensus estimate in the screenshot below: The number in the right-most column is the ‘prior’ (previous month) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is

Headlines: US jobs report the main event on the agenda today What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP? USD/JPY holds the bounce from earlier but the coast isn’t clear yet ECB’s de Guindos: Inflation to start converging to 2% target in the spring Germany December industrial production -2.4% vs -0.6% m/m expected

Oil started US trading higher after Saudi Arabia raised prices on its barrels but talk of peace in Ukraine and Trump touting lower oil prices as a way to ease inflation has weighed on crude. That has WTI crude oil trading 56-cents lower to $70.47 and at the lowest levels since December 30. We could

Freedom Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: FRHC), a U.S.- based financial services company, has announced its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2024. The holding company reported a 57% increase in total revenue, with revenues reaching $655.2 million compared to $418.6 million in the same quarter of 2023. Total assets increased to $9.1 billion from

Moderate gains in US stocks earlier today have turned to losses as some selling creeps in. I wouldn’t say there is too much angst ahead of non-farm payrolls as there are plenty of disinflationary signals even if Friday’s report is strong. A bigger source of concern might be Amazon earnings after the bell. The company

Prior -€7.1 billion The trade deficit narrowed slightly at the end of last year as exports fell by 0.4% while imports grew slightly by 0.1% on the month. Overall, the French trade balance stood at -€81.0 billion in 2024 and that’s a good progression after having touched a record deficit level of -€162.6 billion in

German DAX futures -0.1% UK FTSE futures -0.3% This comes after the stronger gains yesterday with Wall Street also salvaging a slight advance at the end of it all. That said, US stocks were largely carried by tech shares as the S&P 500 ended up 0.3% higher but the Dow fell by 0.3%. For today,

I posted yesterday on Bank of America’s view that the Reserve Bank of Australia would cut three times in 2025: BoA expect just 3 RBA interest cuts in 2025, terminal rate of 3.6% Via a note from TD Securities (from a few days ago ICYMIO), analysts there suggest that recent activity data does not indicate

Gita Gopinath is the First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF): We support the Bank of Japan’s approach of moving gradually and being data-dependent in raising interest rates. There are positive signs that Japan’s inflation is moving durably toward the 2% target. Japan’s services inflation remains below the 2% target, which is

Around 40% of the move higher in 10s since Sept is inflation compensation Around 60% is real rates The market may be taking the signal that the neutral rate is higher Could also be because of fiscal deficits The most important number in the jobs report is 4.0% unemployment rate The feedback that I’m getting

Prior month 90.9K (was expecting 25.0 K). Revised to 179.1 K Employment change 76.0K vs 25.0 K estimate. This is the 3rd consecutive monthly gain following increases in December (+91,000; +0.4%) and November (+44,000; +0.2%). Unemployment rate 6.6% versus 6.8% estimate. Last month 6.7% Full time employment 35.2K vs 57.5K last month. Revised to 171.8K

US stocks are marginally higher as implied by the futures in premarket trading. The small gains are not being hurt by higher yields, but being helped by the prospects of a solid economy. Inflation concerns are there, but not a worry just yet: Dow industrial average of 43 points S&P index up 3 points NASDAQ

In the European session we have just a few low tier indicators that won’t influence interest rates expectations. The focus today is of course on the US NFP report but there’s also the Canadian employment data being released at the same time. We then conclude with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. 13:30 GMT/08:30 ET

Two-month net revision: +100K versus -8K prior Unemployment rate: 4.0% versus 4.1% expected Unrounded unemployment rate: 4.0085% versus 4.0855% prior Prior unemployment rate: 4.1% Participation rate: 62.6% versus 62.5% prior U6 underemployment rate: 7.5% versus 7.5% prior Average hourly earnings (m/m): +0.5% versus +0.3% expected and +0.3% prior Prior avg hourly earnings: +0.3% Average hourly

1215 GMT/0715 US Eastern time: Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill gives a presentation to businesses on yesterday’s interest rate decision and economic outlook Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Pound bounces back after rate cut This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Treasury staff have not tried to block federal payments DOGE programs are an important audit of the government We want to have the best policies to create the conditions for a strong dollar China is the most-imbalanced economy in the history of the world China is trying to export their way out of a depression

Services inflation remains the top concern A prudent approach to monetary policy is needed Meanwhile, ECB chief economist Lane is also out with some comments as per below: 2% inflation target is to be achieved fairly soon January services inflation was softer than expected It is best not to focus too much on neutral rate

The sort of news we do not want to hear. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

At the end of January, China gold reserves was seen at 73.45 million million fine troy ounces. That is a step up from December, where it held 73.29 million fine troy ounces in gold reserves. In terms of value, the January reserves stood at $206.53 billion as compared to $191.34 billion in December. Liquid metal.

Given the subject matter for these two, we may not get much of interest on the economy or policy. 1425 GMT/0925 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman speaks on bank regulation 1700 GMT/1200 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler speaks on “Entrepreneurship and Aggregate Productivity” before the 2025 Miami

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reduced its key repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%, the first cut since May 2020. The move aims to stimulate the sluggish economy, which is projected to grow at its slowest pace in four years. Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) – The six-member panel (three RBI officials, three

Given the backdrop, it will be a placeholder session in European morning trade today. The bond market has already looked to have made up its mind on the week here. And it’s now time to look to the US jobs report for vindication. The dollar is still in a vulnerable spot as such, especially with

Amazon Stock Earnings Trade Idea: Post-Earnings Playbook Key Concept: For day and swing traders looking to capitalize on Amazon stock earnings volatility, fading an earnings move based on institutional participation and historical liquidity zones presents a high-probability opportunity. This trade plan for Amazon (AMZN) stock is designed to either short the stock if it spikes

0845 GMT/ 0345 US Eastern time: ECB Board Member Luis de Guindos will speak in conference “VI Economic-Insurance Meeting” 2000 GMT / 1500 US Eastern time: Bank of Spain governor Jose Luis Escriva to speak at an event in Chapultepec, Mexico Escriva speaking in … Mexico! I wonder if he’ll have much to say on

Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaking: The world looks increasingly shock-prone. As 2025 begins, we are facing new uncertainty with a shift in policy direction in the United States. President Donald Trump’s threats of new tariffs are already affecting business and household confidence, particularly in Canada and Mexico. The longer this uncertainty persists, the more

easyMarkets a trusted name in trading excellence, is proud to announce that it has been awarded ‘Broker of the Year 2024’ and TradingView’s Best of the Best, marking the company’s second consecutive win, following its Best CFD/Forex Broker 2023 recognition last year. This remarkable achievement emphasizes easyMarkets ongoing commitment to delivering an exceptional trading experience.

The data is here: Japan data: December Household Spending YoY +2.7% (vs. expected: 0.2%, previous: -0.4%) A Japanese government official says this December household spending y/y increase was the fastest since Auguist 2022. USD/JPY is sitting on its session low: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Japan data is stunningly good, a surge in spending: December Household Spending YoY +2.7% expected: 0.2%, previous: -0.4% December Household Spending MoM +2.3% expected: -0.5%, previous: 0.4% After a pullback on comments from BoJ’s Tamura yesterday, BOJ’s Tamura makes his case again for faster interest rate hikes Tamura says BoJ must raise short-term interest rates

The low earlier in Asia touched 150.95 before buyers stepped back in and we’re now trading 100 pips above that. It’s a bit of a tricky one for the pair as the dollar has hardly showed much convincing appetite against the rest of the major currencies bloc. With eyes on the US jobs report later,

Eurostoxx -0.1% Germany DAX -0.1% France CAC 40 flat UK FTSE -0.1% Spain IBEX +0.2% Italy FTSE MIB flat It’s a quiet one to start the session with US futures also seen flattish at the moment. It’s all on the US non-farm payrolls data, so it is a waiting game in European morning trade in

Prior €19.7 billion For the year itself, the German trade balance scored a surplus of €241.2 billion. Exports were seen down 1.0% and imports down 2.8% compared to the year 2023. These are the seasonally adjusted figures. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Prior -0.2% With the increase in January, the average property price in the UK moves up to a new record high of £299,138. Halifax notes that “affordability is still a challenge for many would-be buyers, but the market’s resilience is noteworthy”. On an annual basis though, house price growth slowed to +3.0%, the slowest rate

Fundamental Overview The USD continues to be under pressure as the positive tariffs talks on Monday eased the trade war fears and weighed on the greenback. In fact, trade war fears have been the only thing keeping the bid under the USD as interest rate expectations and economic data took the second place in importance.

Why it’s important? The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on

Data due on Sunday at 0130 GMT, which is 2030 US Eastern time on Saturday is expected to show Chinese inflation (CPI) barely stumbling along above deflationary territory: Deflation—when prices decline over time—can be harmful to an economy for several reasons: Delayed Spending and Investment – Consumers and businesses may postpone purchases and investments, expecting

Closing changes for the main North American markets: S&P 500 +0.3% Nasdaq Comp +0.5% DJIA -0.3% Russell 2000 -0.5% Toronto TSX Comp -0.4% It was a bit of a strange one with a strong dump in stocks in the US afternoon that was eventually swallowed up. There was talk of a $10 billion dump in

A couple of high profile speakers on the data calendar: Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaking again after last week’s rate cut: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 29 Jan. The BOC cuts rates by 25 bps. Fed remains steady. Bank of Canada Governor Macklem says tariff threat weighing on CAD Also Federal Reserve Bank of

Japan finance minister Kato says Seven & I buyout will be handled appropriately based on law (Foreign Exchange Act) ** Also, Seven & I Holdings founding family has asked Citigroup and BofA to provide loans for its MBO This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

BIS warns of economic risks, central bank challenges amid Trump policy uncertainties The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has issued a warning about the economic and financial risks stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies and deregulation efforts. BIS head Agustín Carstens highlighted concerns over trade tensions, fiscal policy, regulation, immigration, and broader geopolitical

Major currencies are little changed so far with the dollar keeping steadier on the day. The greenback caught a breather in trading yesterday, after having dealt with a setback following the opening gap higher on Monday. Tariff fears are receding and that’s led to the turnaround in sentiment, with the focus now shifting back to

IMF on Japan and the BoJ The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates again this year and could see them reach levels deemed neutral to the economy by the end of 2027. The IMF estimates Japan’s neutral interest rate to be in the range of 1-2%. Japan’s economy is expected to expand

Consensus estimate +170K Estimate range +60K to +250K December was +256K Private consensus +141K versus +223K prior Unemployment rate consensus estimate 4.1% versus 4.1% prior Prior unrounded unemployment rate 4.0855% Prior participation rate 62.5% Prior underemployment U6 7.5% Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.8% versus +3.9% prior Avg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.3%

Much of this ‘summit’ will be spent on regional security issues of importance to Japan and the US: North Korea Taiwan for example. On economic issues, there will be discussion on: collaboration on technologies, such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors Japan’s imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas I posted last week that FX might get

US initial jobless claims 219K versus 213K estimate US Q4 unit labor costs prelim +3.0% vs +3.4% expected Treasury’s Bessent: We do want the dollar to be strong Fed’s Goolsbee: First effects of tariffs may be less imporant than impacts on expectations Fed’s Waller says stablecoins would make dollar even more of a reserve currency

There is Chinese inflation data due this weekend – CPI and PPI for January 2025 US January 2025 non-farm payrolls data – the critical key ranges for estimates to watch An aircraft with 10 people on board has disappeared from radar in the USA Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba will meet with Trump – press conference

The Magic Number 20 in Technical Analysis: A Hidden Hint to Market Behavior Technical analysis is filled with numbers, patterns, and sequences that traders rely on for identifying trends, reversals, and breakouts. But among these, one number stands out repeatedly: 20. From moving averages to Donchian Channels, Bollinger Bands, and even the way market participants

UBS expects the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts later this year, despite its recent decision to hold rates steady. The U.S. central bank kept rates unchanged last week for the first time since beginning its easing cycle in September, citing persistently elevated inflation and a resilient labour market. However, UBS analysts anticipate that inflation

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first one is for EUR/USD at the 1.0400 level. Given the focus is now on the US jobs report, the large expiries here is likely to keep a lid on price action at least until we get to the

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate,

Tariff issues continue to simmer: China says willing to resolve trade issues through dialogue and consultation *** People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The

Credit Agricole sees Friday’s NFP report as a key trigger that could push USD/JPY lower toward 150, especially with falling UST yields weighing on the pair. Key Points: UST Yields Declining, Adding Pressure on USD/JPY Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized Trump’s focus on lowering 10Y UST yields, rather than pressuring the Fed for rate cuts.

Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan spoke earleir: Fed’s Logan: Says 2025 choice is to resume cutting soon, or to hold ‘for quite some time’ More from Fed’s Logan – estimates of neutral rate vary widely, but most have moved up Logan provided some ‘forward guidance, outlining two possible paths for U.S. monetary policy in

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan: Estimates of the real neutral rate in the US vary widely, but most have moved up substantially since the pandemic. It will always be important to take broad financial conditions into account when setting monetary policy. Logan adding to her comments from earlier: Fed’s Logan: Says 2025

The yen could strengthen beyond 150 against the dollar as the Bank of Japan diverges from the global trend of rate cuts, according to SMBC Nikko Securities strategist Makoto Noji. “With central banks around the world easing policy, the BOJ stands out as one of the few raising interest rates. This policy divergence could accelerate

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan Choices in 2025 boil down to resuming rate cuts ‘soon’ or holding rates steady for ‘quite some time.’ Near-2% inflation with a labor market holding steady would not necessarily allow the Fed to cut rates soon. A rise in inflation would signal monetary policy has more to

Via a note from UBS (the bank’s Wealth Management area) on their outlook for gold. Analysts at the bank say that the price is above their long-term forecast of US$2850 and is above their estimate of fair value And add that gold is showing its worth as a store of value and a hedge against

Goldman Sachs NFP preview: We estimate non-farm payrolls rose by 190k in January, above consensus of +170k and the three-month average of +170k. Alternative measures of employment growth indicated a healthy pace of job creation, and the pace of layoffs—a key determinant of net job growth in January—remained subdued. Unemployment rate estimated to remain unchanged

The WSJ reports that Trump highlighted six priorities: No tax on tips, Social Security, overtime pay Renew 2017 tax cuts Adjust SALT cap Eliminate tax breaks for “billionaire sports team owners” Close carried interest tax deduction loophole Tax cuts on products made in America I find it interesting that the word ‘renew’ is used here

Seems jobs are settling around full employment Appearance that inflation process has stalled is largely due to base effects View of the economy is full employment, ongoing growth and inflation likely to fall to 2% Added uncertainty makes the environment for the Fed foggier, a reason to slow the pace of cuts Would watch PPI

USD/JPY is hitting a fresh six-week low as the dollar weakens broadly. Since Monday, the US dollar has been under steady pressure as the market re-evaluates how hard it expects the Trump administration to go on tariffs. There’s an increasing sense that they’re more of a negotiating tactic than something that will be implemented. That’s

Prior was +0.8% (revised to +0.5%) Productivity prelim +3.0% vs +1.4% expected Prior productivity +2.2% (revised to +2.3%) This is a low-tier indicator but it’s dovish and emphasizes that the Fed will likely be able to cut later this year if there’s any weakness creeping into the economy. This article was written by Adam Button

All the pieces appear to be falling into place for a deal to end the war in Ukraine. Earlier this week, I highlighted that Zelensky said they’re ready for a diplomatic track to end the war. Last month, there was also a report saying that Putin believed his key war goals have been met. Trump

I can’t remember a better time to be a central banker, as this is a similar refrain from all of them. There is some optimism on growth and inflation is falling. There’s is a ‘stagflation’ narrative in the UK today but elsewhere you could argue it’s the opposite, with growth picking up and inflation trending

Strong trends are Fast Directional, and Tend to go farther than what traders expect. Shares of Meta are exhibiting a strong upward trend, currently working on their 14th consecutive day of gains, marking a record for the stock. While this remarkable streak might suggest overbought conditions, recent trading action indicates a breakout above the upper

The USDCAD has begun to stabilize following last week’s and this week’s significant volatility. The price initially surged higher on Monday, reacting to news of a 25% tariff announcement over the weekend. Mexico quickly negotiated a 30-day deal to meet President Trump’s requirements, followed by Canada taking similar steps, which triggered a sharp reversal in

Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller is speaking on Thursday Panama Canal authority says its made no change to canal fees BoA expect just 3 RBA interest cuts in 2025, terminal rate of 3.6% US Treas Secretary Scott Bessent – more on Trump wanting lower 10 yr yield, not short term The Nissan – Honda

The Middle East Blockchain Awards (MEBA) returns for its second year after the success of its inaugural edition, with Dubai selected as the host city. The ceremony will take place at the iconic Jumeirah Burj Al Arab on April 29, coinciding with the TOKEN2049 conference. The event will unite industry leaders, innovators, and visionaries to

I pinned this as being a key line in the sand on Tuesday and bond traders look to be making up their minds already now on the week. As tariff fears subside, it’s clear what the main worry is for the bond market as evident by the run up in yields since October and in

The GBPUSD experienced steady declines during the Asian session and ahead of the BOE rate decision. The Bank of England cut rates by 25 basis points, as widely expected, but the fact that two members voted for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut added to the bearish sentiment. This pushed the pair lower into

The FX market is having a re-think on the Bank of England rate cut reaction. After falling in the lead-up to the announcement and the immediate aftermath, it found a bottom near 1.2360 and has climbed 80 pips. Some of that is broader US dollar weakness as trade tensions diminish but it’s also an impressive

Cable is down 0.7% on the day to 1.2419 with the pound being the laggard in the major currencies space. A softer UK construction PMI here is not helping with the mood, with construction activity contracting for the first time in almost a year. Looking at the near-term chart: The pair has inched back just

A report yesterday said Trump’s team would be presenting a peace plan in Germany next week but the Ukrainian outlet Strana already claims to have a leaked version. It includes a ceasefire by April 20, a ban on Ukraine joining NATO and Ukraine would accept Russian sovereignty on conquered land. A contingent of European soldier

Trump and Bessent have been saying this for awhile but it’s not clear what the plan is to drive down the cost of oil. WTI is at $71.71 right now and Goldman Sachs made a pretty compelling case that US drilling slows down below $70, which acts as a natural floor. Bessent has talked about

Costco shares are trading at a new record high of $1,041.57, with the next target being a topside channel trendline near $1,047. A break above this level could turn the trendline into support, opening the door for further upside potential. Looking back, on January 14, the price bounced off a key trendline, signaling early strength.

This is a low quality piece of economic data but may highlight the angst around tariffs in Canada. Seasonally adjusted vs 54.7 prior Not-seasonally adjusted 47.1 vs 44.3 prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: BOE cuts bank rate by 25 bps to 4.50%, as expected BOE governor Bailey: We expect to be able to cut the bank rate further BOE governor Bailey: There was a bit of a debate about the world “careful” BOE governor Bailey: I don’t use the word “stagflation” The bond market looks to have

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Fundamental Overview This week has been all about tariffs. On Monday we opened with a big gap lower as Trump followed through with his tariffs threats and imposed them on Canada, Mexico and China over the weekend. As it’s been the case for previous tariffs actions though, the market started to cautiously fade the reaction

There is no groupthink on the policy commitee Mann will be speaking in the near future and explain her position in much more detail I would not overinterpret any other moves in voting purpose It is more important that the view on the rate path is based on economic fundamentals We think that the path

Prior 4.75% Bank rate vote 9-0 vs 8-1 expected (Dhingra and Mann actually voted in favour of a 50 bps rate cut*) Domestic inflationary pressures are moderating, but they remain somewhat elevated Will pay close attention to any consequent signs of more lasting inflationary pressures GDP growth is expected to pick up from the middle

Prior 53.3 This marks the first contraction in UK construction activity after 10 months of expansion. Firms cited delays in decision-making by clients on major projects and general economic uncertainty as key factors weighing on activity to start the year. Looking at the breakdown, civil engineering activity (44.6) continues to lag while commercial construction activity

German DAX futures +0.5% UK FTSE futures +0.4% This follows from the more mixed showing yesterday. But with Wall Street ending on a high note and US futures also higher today, there is a more vibrant risk mood ahead of European trading. S&P 500 futures are seen up 0.2% currently. This article was written by

We will have to judge meeting by meeting how far and how fast The road ahead will have bumps There’s still a continued, gradual easing of underlying inflation pressures Coming rise in inflation is almost entirely due to factors not directly linked to pressures in the economy We expect these factors to be temporary We

The dollar is mostly a little higher across the board today but is it all just a brief respite? The greenback opened with a gap higher on Monday thanks to Trump’s tariff threats but that has faded away and then some over the last few days. The drop in Treasury yields yesterday only served to

Only then we can judge the effects of those policies We don’t know what those policies are now, they are changing day to day If there is a broad move towards fragmentation in global economy, there would be significant impact I think all major central banks are trying to avoid going into too much detail

We continue to use “gradual” because we continue to have to see the disinflation process take place We added the word “careful” deliberately Around that, there is greater uncertainty that we face in the current environment That uncertainty is both domestic and global The uncertainty explains why we paired “gradual” with “careful” Again, the way

Fundamental Overview This week has been all about tariffs. On Monday we opened with a big gap lower as Trump followed through with his tariffs threats and imposed them on Canada, Mexico and China over the weekend. As it’s been the case for previous tariffs actions though, the market started to cautiously fade the reaction

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 44 bps (86% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 83 bps (97% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 83 bps (99% probability of rate cut at today’s decision) BoC: 61 bps (65% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 87 bps (80%

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones are for EUR/USD layered in between 1.0350 through to 1.0410. That could help to keep price action more locked in during the session in that range but just be wary that the dollar is under some decent

Oil is higher on a report that the White House has issued fresh Iran sanctions that target shipping of oil. Earlier this week, Trump re-issued a directive to put maximum pressure on Iran. It was “aimed at driving Iran’s oil exports to zero”. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Sector Overview Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a generally positive performance across most sectors, with notable rebounds in the technology space. Nvidia (NVDA) leads the semiconductor surge with an impressive 1.65% gain, showcasing renewed optimism. Software and infrastructure also show green, with Microsoft (MSFT) up 0.41% and Oracle (ORCL) climbing 0.75%. The consumer cyclical sector

Jefferson spoke yesterday and hasn’t changed his views since! Fed’s Jefferson says there is no need to hurry further rate cuts This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

We’ve had a flat economy after the pickup in the earlier stages of last year But our policy actions are anchored on the view that the disinflation process is in place Inflation is expected to pick up but only in the short-term (Ramsden) Movement in UK bond yields largely follows the US market I reckon

The USDCHF spiked higher on Monday but then began a steady descent through Tuesday and Wednesday. Yesterday’s low tested a key swing area between 0.8997 and 0.9011, where selling momentum slowed, and price action consolidated. In today’s early Asian session, the price failed to break below yesterday’s low, prompting a shift from sellers to buyers,

Fundamental Overview Gold continued to print new all-time highs day after day this week as the fall in real yields and later the US dollar gave the precious metal a tailwind to push into new highs. The most recent rise though has been quite parabolic and that’s often followed by a deeper pullback. We have

Bitcoin Futures Analysis for February 6, 2025: Key Levels and Trade Plan Current Market Overview Bitcoin futures are currently trading at $98,710, with the bearish threshold at $98,860. This level is just below yesterday’s Value Area High (VAH) and near the Value Area Low (VAL) of two days ago. Since price is slightly below this

The pound is the FX laggard today after the Bank of England cut rates in a unanimous decision that was accompanied by a soft growth forecast. “We expect to be able to cut the bank rate further as the disinflation process continues, but we will have to judge meeting by meeting, how far and how

Resilient supply chains are critical for US economy and national security US needs robust manufacturing base and ‘innovation economy’ to deter conflict If and when confirmed, Greer will be the face for all negotiations involving the US and coordinating trade policy across the federal government. He is very much a tariff man himself with Trump

Fundamental Overview This week has been all about tariffs. On Monday we opened with a big gap lower as Trump followed through with his tariffs threats and imposed them on Canada, Mexico and China over the weekend. As it’s been the case for previous tariffs actions though, the market started to cautiously fade the reaction

Prior 2.6%; revised to 2.7% The Swiss jobless rate is seen steady last month, after a slight revision higher to the December reading. Overall, the trend points gradual softness in the labour market after a stronger period in the post-Covid recovery. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

S&P 500 futures are up 16 points, or 0.26% shortly before the open. The market has been drifting higher as trade tensions ease following Monday’s tariff fake-out. This would be the third straight gain following the big drop on Monday. Eli Lilly reported in the pre-market and beat estimates but shares are down 0.5%. Elsewhere

Prior 38.79k January tends to be a month that sees a notable jump in layoffs but not quite this year. The total job cuts for last month were 49,795 and that is considerably lower than the 82,307 job cuts in January 2024. The key figure to watch in the year as a whole will be

The market continues to catch its breath after the Monday drama. Today the mood was poor to start the day after Alphabet shares plunged but the market steadied and turned higher in a win for the bulls. Closing changes: S&P 500 +0.3% Nasdaq Comp +0.1% DJIA +0.7% Russell 2000 +1.0% Toronto TSX Comp +0.9% This

AP had the news: The United States says that its government vessels would be allowed to sail for free through the Panama Canal, following heavy pressure from President Donald Trump. “US government vessels can now transit the Panama Canal without charge fees, saving the US government millions of dollars a year,” the State Department said

Prior week initial jobless claims 207K revised to 208K Initial jobless claims 219K vs 213K estimate 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 216.75 versus 212.75 last week Prior week continuing claims 1.858M revised to 1.850 million Continuing claims for the current week 1.886Mvs 1.874M estimate 4-week MA of continuing claims 1.872M vs 1.870M last

I haven’t seen anything on the BoJ website nor on the news wires from Board Member Tamura Naoki yet. Here’s a yen update while we wait: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

We had a big downdraft in USD/JPY and yen crosses more generally yesterday with a number of factors in play. I mentioned in the wrap: Wage data from Japan former Bank of Japan executive Hideo Hayakawa Bank of Japan saying rates are going to move higher than the market expects, Bank of Japan Policy Head

Inflation is almost reaching the target Economic fundamentals not significantly different from December projections Rate cuts are coherent with declining inflation picture No recession seen, soft landing is still the main scenario US tariffs on China could force Beijing to dump goods on Europe That could weigh on growth, inflation So far, the ECB outlook

In the kickstart video above, I take a look at three of the major currency pairs the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The USD is mostly higher today (exception is the USDJPY with a modest decline) , after declines yesterday vs the major currency pairs. The GBPUSD is the biggest mover (USD up by around 1%)

Trump is out tweeting as per below: From yesterday: Trump says US ‘will take over the Gaza Strip’ This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Info via Bloomberg. The headline is not as blunt as it could be. If its not going to be a ‘soft landing’ then the risk is a recession. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The rate cut today should not offer too much surprises as the OIS market is also signaling that traders have priced in ~92% odds of that. That will bring the bank rate to 4.50% as the BOE continues to gradually move to bring rates lower. The more important part in all of this will be

Will try to find where the neutral rate should be while examining how the economy responds to rate hikes Not saying that neutral rate should be 1% Upward risks for prices is gradually increasing No preset idea about the pace of rate hikes His earlier comments were about cementing the idea of raising rates to

We don’t have much in the European session today as we just get a couple of low tier indicators that are unlikely to influence markets expectations. The main highlights will be the BoE rate decision and the US Jobless Claims at the beginning of the American session. 12:00 GMT/07:00 ET – Bank of England Policy

I spoke with Reuters today about what’s driving the US dollar move. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior +0.1%; revised to 0.0% The fall on the month stems from a decline in retail sales for food, drinks, and tobacco (-0.7%). That is offset by increases in sales for non-food products (+0.3%) and automotive fuel (+0.2%). As a whole for the year of 2024, the annual average of euro area retail sales trade

Earlier on China: JP Morgan maintains view that US-China tariff war likely to escalate, all the way to 60% JP Morgan see a much weaker Chinese yuan due to Trump tariffs, PBoC to step in *** People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for

Prior -5.4%; revised to -5.2% The headline reading might look great but it is just reflecting a bounce back after the sharp decline in November, which owed to a fall in large-scale orders. Of note, incoming orders in other vehicle construction (aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles) were seen up 55.5% after the near 60% decline

Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura spoke today: BOJ’s Tamura makes his case again for faster interest rate hikes His comment on getting rates to 1% is catching headlines: short-term interest rates shouldd be raised to at least 1% by the second half of fiscal 2025 to manage rising inflation risks Tamura is known

US stocks shake off the early weakness Chip Stock Showdown: AMD, Nvidia & Broadcom Analysis US crude oil futures settled at $71.03 US dollar at a one-week low as the trade fears fade Fed’s Goolsbee: Ignoring supply chain impacts, like tariffs, would be a mistake Tariff front-running is likely to play havoc with Canadian economic

3 Chip Stocks, 3 Different Stories AMD, Nvidia, and Broadcom are all in focus today, but their stock charts tell vastly different stories. AMD: Shares are down sharply, dropping over 7% after disappointing data center earnings were reported yesterday. This decline has pushed the stock to its lowest level since November 2024, painting a negative

The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to cut interest rates by 25bp at its meeting today, Thursday, February 6, 2025. This will be the third cut of the cycle so far. The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee is pondering a weak economy with nevertheless persistent inflation (inflation was 2.5% in December, above the BoE’s 2%

Japan finance minister Kato speaking in parliament: sees inflationary conditions as prices rise further deflation has not yet ended Yen gathering a few bids on this. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

NASDAQ Futures Analysis for Today – February 6, 2025 Key Levels and Trade Compass Strategy for NASDAQ Futures Trading At the time of this NASDAQ futures analysis, the index is trading at 21,801, which is very close to our bearish threshold of 21,796. This means we will maintain a bearish bias below this level, while

Eurostoxx +0.4% Germany DAX +0.8% France CAC 40 +0.3% UK FTSE +0.6% Spain IBEX +0.5% Italy FTSE MIB +0.3% Risk is back on, at least for now, as European stocks look to catch up to the gains on Wall Street overnight. US futures are also higher but only marginally, up 0.1% currently. As tariff fears

JP Morgan cite cocnerns over Trump’s extra tariff impost on China. Says USD/CNH to rise at least 1% higher from its January closing level. analysts at the bank expect the People’s Bank of China will step in to prevent the spot rate rising above 7.4 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I posted earlier on Bessent: Trump’s Treasury Secretary Bessent threatens the largest tax hike in history The key point in his comments was this: focus is on bringing down 10-year Treasury yields, rather than the Fed’s benchmark short-term interest rate Over the weekend Trump said it was ‘fine’ that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)

Repeating this from yesterday as a heads up ICYMI. Bank of Japan Board Member, Tamura Naoki at a meeting with local leaders in Nagano at 9.30 am Tokyo time: at 0030 GMT / 2030 US Eastern time Back in December 2024 Naoki Tamura proposed raising rates to 0.5%, citing rising inflationary risks. His proposal was

I posted earlier on views from Bank of America in Sydney: Ex-RBA official Australia’s weak economy, sticky CPI, trade uncertainty a risk to a soft landing Bloomberg is gated, adding a little more from BoA, in brief: “We expect sticky inflation around the top of the target band will lead to a shallow cycle relative

Canada today posted a trade surplus for the first time in 10 months in December, though it was slightly smaller than expected. For January, we are likely to see more of the same as shippers attempted to beat Trump’s tariff deadlines. For December, Canadian exports rose to $69.46B from $66.20B in a sign of both

JP Morgan has reaffirmed its baseline assumption that the United States will raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 60%, signalling expectations of further escalation in the ongoing trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies. In its latest assessment, the investment bank stated that while it continues to anticipate an intensification of tariff measures, the

China willing to work together to respond to challenges on trade protectionism China won’t proactively provoke trade disputes Will take necessary measures against unilateral bullying and resolutely defend its rights These could easily pass for the same kind of response when the two sides were also butting heads back in 2017-18. A case of déjà

Not focusing on the fact that policy rate hasn’t touched 0.75% in the past 30 years Will raise interest rates in stages in line with likelihood of achieving inflation target Will decide whether inflation target is achieved from various indicators As things stand, traders are only pricing in the next rate hike to come around

Australian Trade Balance (MoM) (Dec) 5,085mn expected 7,000mn, prior 6,792mn Imports (MoM) (Dec) +5.9% prior +1.4% Exports (MoM) (Dec) +1.1% prior +4.2% *** AUD down a few tics only: AUD is being around on global developments more than on local data at present. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Japan Board Member, Tamura Naoki at a meeting with local leaders in Nagano Worried that sharp rises in rice prices, coupled with inflation exceeding 2% lasting for nearly three years, could hurt consumption. Output gap may already effectively be in positive territory as supply constraints put upward pressure on prices. Corporate and household

1930 GMT/1430 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on “Payments” event is “Navigating the Future of Payments with Christopher Waller” in Washington While we may not get anything on his economic or policy views, perhaps in a following Q&A, if any. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson: need to look at the totality of the net effect of the Trump administration’s influence on policy goals happy to keep policy at the current level of restrictiveness until there is a better sense of the totality of impacts even if the rate was 100bp lower it’d still be

We heard from Bowman last Friday when she said that she still expects rate cuts. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

On the agenda today Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson gives a lecture, “Do Non-Inflationary Economic Expansions Promote Shared Prosperity?” Jefferson spoke yesterday, sticking to the current Fed narrative of on hold for longer: Fed’s Jefferson says there is no need to hurry further rate cuts The data from Australia is unlikely to shift around

I posted this earlier, a report from AP citing the US State Dept: US government vessels to sail free through Panama Canal More here: “US government vessels can now transit the Panama Canal without charge fees, saving the US government millions of dollars a year,” the State Department said in a post on social media

Standard Charted forecast: year-end 2025 price target US$200,000 2026 target US300,000 Bitcoin to $500,000 before Trump leaves office Citing: increased investor access the Trump administration institutional inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs diminishing volatility as the U.S. exchange-traded fund (ETF) market matures a hedge against issues plaguing traditional finance Info via Coindesk This article was written

Nissan CEO Makoto Uchida has informed Honda CEO Toshihiro Mibe that he wants to cancel their memorandum of understanding (MOU) regarding potential merger discussions, according to a source familiar with the matter. The decision comes after Honda proposed making Nissan a subsidiary, which was not part of the original merger plan. The two companies had

Goldman Sachs has pushed back against concerns that the dominance of the US equity market, particularly within the technology sector and among a handful of leading companies, signals the formation of a financial bubble. In its latest market commentary, the investment bank argued that the current strength of US equities is not driven by speculative

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Failure to get the tax bill done will result in the “largest tax hike in history” Happy days. More: Trumps wants lower interest rates Trump not calling for the Fed to lower interest rates Interest rates will take care of themselves if we get energy costs down and deregulate the economy

Earlier: JP Morgan see a much weaker Chinese yuan due to Trump tariffs, PBoC to step in ** People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB).

In inflation rises or progress stalls, the Fed will need to figure out if it’s from overheating or tariffs Distinguishing the cause of any inflation will be critical for deciding when or if the Fed should act Inflation has come down, is approaching 2% goal Covid pandemic experience shows supply chain impacts can have a

The risk trades in equities and FX are sending opposing signals late in the day. The S&P 500 has stretched to a fresh session high, up 0.3%, while the US dollar appears to have found a short term bottom. USD/CAD and USD/JPY have both climbed about 50 pips from the lows. Over in the bond

US crude oil futures are settling at $71.03. That is down $1.67 or -2.3% Looking at the hourly chart, the price on MOnday, extended above the 200 hour MA, but could not sustain momentum. Most of yesterday and today, the 100 hour MA has been resistance. Bearish. The price low has moved down toward the

SocGen sees selling EUR/JPY as the best short-term trade, given the divergence in Eurozone vs. Japan growth expectations. While USD/JPY remains strongly correlated to 10-year US yields, the broader JPY strength case is intact as US equities soften and Treasury yields edge lower. Key Points: Strong Correlation Between USD/JPY & US Yields USD/JPY has maintained

Prior was -0.32B (revised to -0.99B) Exports 69.46B vs 66.20B prior Imports 68.76B vs 67.18B prior This is Canada’s first trade surplus in 10 months. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prelim was 52.8 Prior was 56.8 (best reading since March 2022) Composite 52.7 vs 52.4 prelim Prior composite was 55.4 This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Prior was 54.1 Employment 52.3 vs 51.3 prior New orders 51.3 vs 54.2 prior Prices paid 60.4 vs 64.4 prior Business activity 54.5 vs 58.2 prior Supplier deliveries 53.0 vs 52.5 prior Inventories 47.5 vs 49.4 prior Backlog of orders 44.8 vs 44.3 prior New export orders 52.0 vs 50.1 prior Imports 49.8 vs 50.7

The NZDUSD bottomed on Monday within pips of the low from 2022. Since then, the price has been steadily rising. Today, the price moved above what was an old ceiling area between 0.56837 and 0.56917. That area will now be close support for traders. Staying above could lead to another run to the upside with

Prior month $-78.2 billion revised to $-78.9 billion US international trade deficit for December $-98.4 billion versus $-96.6 billion estimate. The 2nd largest trade deficit going back to 1992. Goods trade balance $-122.01 billion versus $-122.11 billion preliminary. Last month $-103.5 billion Exports $266.5 billion, $-7.1 billion or minus -2.6% versus November imports $364.9 billion,

WTO complaints are a long process, typically taking several years. In addition, since 2019, the WTO’s Appellate Body has been non-functional due to the US blocking new appointments. In short, this is meaningless and the WTO is slowly falling apart. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Total refunding of $125B to raise $18.8B in new cash and refund $106.2B in securities $58 billion in 3s $42 billion in 10s $25 billion in 30s Statement All the numbers are unchanged and that was expected. The Treasury said there would be ‘greater than normal’ bill issuance until the debt ceiling is raised. Bond

The weaker PMI data has helped to push the USDJPY lower. The price has now moved below its 200 day moving average at 152.778, and its 100 day moving average at 152.422 (see green and blue lines on the chart above).. The price is currently trading at 152.327. Staying below those levels keeps the sellers

The USDCAD has experienced significant volatility over the past five trading days, largely driven by uncertainty surrounding tariffs. Last week, the price broke higher, moving outside the “red box” range that had confined trading since December 17. This breakout was exacerbated on Monday following the announcement of a potential 25% tariff, which was later delayed

Morgan Stanley economists no longer expect a Fed cut in March, according to the WSJ. They now expect only one rate cut this year, in June. “Imposing tariffs more quickly than we assumed would likely mean disinflation halts at a higher pace of inflation, blocking any near-term path to cuts,” they write. The Fed funds

Alphabet shares were a big drag on stocks earlier today and the Nasdaq remains 0.2% lower but the S&P 500 is now slightly higher ont he day after erasing a 30-point loss. That’s impressive performance given that share of GOOG remain down 7.6%. The market is continuing to digest this round of the trade war

I hope we will get to 2% deposit rate sooner rather than later We may need to go below neutral rate to sustain inflation at 2% Sees neutral rate below 2% Pretty clear we need to keep downward trajectory of interest rates I’m ok with gradual cuts of 25 bps Europe must be united in

It’s difficult to know the impact of tariffs. Looking forward it’s hard to know what specific tariffs are coming. Uncertainty goes beyond tariffs to immigration, regulation and other issues. Many Trump policies adding to uncertainty in economy. I see strong consumer spending and lower investment in 2025. I expect 12 month inflation numbers to come

Comments from the chief economist: Incoming survey indicators suggest that the eurozone economy is set to remain subdued in the near term A middle path is appropriate for policy Calibration of mon pol cannot be summarized by neutral rate Tariffs are a downside risk to activity but inflation impact is uncertain Not much of a

More from Richmond Fed Pres. Barkin. Fed is cyberattacked all the time. We can’t rest on security protocols in place. Three levels of uncertainty with tariffs. First is what level on what countries. Next is what response will countries and companies have. How is all this going to land on the consumer. Who bears the

Yesterday, Zelensky said they are ready for the diplomatic track to end the war. Now, Bloomberg reports that US allies expect Trump’s plan to end the war at a Munich security conference next week. I take this as a potential upside risk for the euro and a downside risk for oil. This article was written

This is a bit rich consider the US just blocked Japan’s acquisition of US Steel based on national security grounds. That said, Trump does seem to have a soft spot for Japan. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The AUD/USD is pushing to new highs, with the price now entering a key swing area target between 0.6287 and 0.63016 (see renumbered circles on the chart below). A sustained move above this range could pave the way for a rally toward the January high of 0.63310. On the downside, immediate support is seen at

Federal Reserve speakers on Wednesday include Barkin, Goolsbee, Bowman, and Jefferson Japan’s Akazawa says ambitious goal to boost minimum wage, eradicate deflationary mindset BOJ official: BOJ sees underlying inflation gradually heading towards 2% The additional US tariffs of 10% will apply to Hong Kong as well as mainland China FX option expiries for 5 February

The New Zealand jobs data is here: New Zealand Q4 unemployment rate 5.1% (vs. 5.1% expected and 4.8% in Q3 employment in the quarter fell 0.1%, its biggest drop since 2009 wage growth unchanged q/q Analyst responses (info via Reuters): ASB: softening labour market should prompt continued frontloading of monetary policy easing “The RBNZ will

1400 GMT / 0900 US Eastern time ECB chief economist Philip Lane speaks at the Peterson Institute This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Tech sector tumbles: Nvidia shines as Google slides In today’s dynamic trading environment, the U.S. stock market experienced contrasting movements, with significant fluctuations observed across various sectors. The tech sector, in particular, is under the spotlight, revealing some fascinating trends and insights for investors. 📉 Communication Services & Consumer Cyclical: Under Pressure Google (GOOG) took

Final Services PMI 52.5 vs. 52.5 expected and 51.2 prior. Final Composite PMI 50.5 vs. 50.1 expected and 48.0 prior. Key findings: HCOB Germany Services PMI Business Activity Index at 52.5 (Dec: 51.2). 6-month high. HCOB Germany Composite PMI Output Index at 50.5 (Dec: 48.0). 8-month high. Inflationary pressures increase amid steep and accelerated rise

Japan January services PMI 53.0 prior 50.9 flash was 52.7 grew for the third consecutive month Composite PMI 51.1 in January flash 51.1 strongest growth since September prior 50.5 includes both manufacturing and services Japan’s service sector grew, driven by strong Asian demand for exports, according to the Jibun Bank Service PMI. Growth in the

Does not expect tariffs to result in a large reshoring of US manufacturing any time soon Expects 12 months inflation numbers will come down ‘significantly’ in the first quarter There are some base case effects that should help bring down inflation numbers in Q1 and that would highlight Fed optionality on rate cuts. This article

Prior was +122K (revised to +176K) Goods producing -6K Service providing +190K Pay gains for job stayers 4.7% vs 4.6% prior Pay growth for job changers 6.8% vs 7.1% prior “We had a strong start to 2025 but it masked a dichotomy in the labor market,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Consumer-facing industries drove

The USDCHF has been trending more to the downside once again after Monday’s spike took the price within a few pips of the January high. Yesterday, the price fell below both its 100 and 200 hour moving averages, stalling near the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the January 24 low at 0.90537. Today

It’s another negative European session for the greenback as the market continues to sell off the US Dollar due to the easing in trade war fears. Trade war fears have been the only thing keeping the bid under the USD as interest rate expectations and economic data took the second place in importance. As a

Prior was 3464K Gasoline +2233K vs +525K expected Distillates -5471K vs -1483K expected Production 13.478 mbpd These are bearish numbers for energy, even compared to the private numbers from late yesterday. WTI crude oil was down $1.06 to $71.64 ahead of the data. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Goldman Sachs are about as caught up in headline ping-pong as the rest of us. From earlier in the week: Goldman Sachs: We think Canada and Mexico tariffs are likely to be short-lived Goldman Sachs says the medium term risks to oil prices is skewed to the downside Most recently from GS: On China –

Japanese media, Asahi, citing unnamed sources: Honda and Nissan may call off merger talks Boards of the two firms to meet separately in the near future to discuss calling off merger talks This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China is back from holidays today. Latest news: China announces counter-tariffs against Trump’s trade moves levies of 15% for US coal and LNG, 10% for crude oil, farm equipment and some autos China anti-monopoly regulator launches investigation into Google WSJ: Pres Trump and China Pres. Xi are not speaking today More on Goldman Sachs –

US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 31 January +2.2% vs -2.0% prior The US Dollar remains under pressure as trade war fears continue to ease Eurozone December PPI 0.4% vs 0.5% m/m expected UK January final services PMI 50.8 vs 51.2 prelim Eurozone January final services PMI 51.3 vs 51.4 prelim Germany January final services PMI

Japanese Yen Futures Analysis: A Trade Idea to Fade the Upside Move 💹 Overview: Japanese Yen Today & A Potential Short Setup The Japanese Yen futures have seen an upside move recently, but this analysis suggests a potential short opportunity to fade that strength. 📉 While this is not a typical TradeCompass setup (because we

Prior was 48.2 Panellists primarily linked ongoing weakness in activity volumes to a reduction in new business, which also fell for a second successive month in January Inflation softest in three months Paul Smith, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “Canada’s services economy experienced concurrent falls in both business activity and new work

3 levels of uncertainty with tariffs First is what level on what countries Next is the response from countries and companies Third is how it all lands with the consumer Does worry that de-globalization could be a headwind for US growth Globalization has been deflationary This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

RapidCents, the payment processing platform, that specializes in secure transactions and automated billing, has announced an expansion to better serve merchants across North America. The investment aims to cover the development of the application and the investment of USD 500,000 in advanced AI infrastructure and specialized hardware + GPUs, according to the organization, which was

If the main obstacle for the US is Iran pursuing nuclear weapons, then this can be resolved. Tehran’s stance about nuclear weapons is clear as a member of NPT (Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Treaty) and given Khamenei’s Fatwa banning WMD. This follows Trump’s presidential memorandum yesterday on putting “maximum pressure” on Iran. Trump added though

Final Services PMI 51.3 vs. 51.4 expected and 51.6 prior. Final Composite PMI 50.2 vs. 50.2 expected and 49.6 prior. Key findings: HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index at 50.2 (Dec: 49.6). 5-month high. HCOB Eurozone Services PMI Business Activity Index at 51.3 (Dec: 51.6). 2-month low. Economy returns to growth, but sustained fall in

I’m not seeing any details on this yet but it’s likely a response to the tariffs. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

In the kickstart video above, I take a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The greenback is falling vs each led by declines of over 1% vs the JPY. The USD is lower vs all the major currencies. US yields are lower. Stocks are lower as markets

TradeCompass: Ethereum Futures Analysis for February 5, 2025 Current Market Position for ETH Futures Ethereum Futures is trading at $2,813 at the time of this analysis. Unlike typical TradeCompass strategies, where we turn bullish above a specific threshold and bearish below another, today’s approach involves fading the move—essentially betting on a reversal. This decision is

Oil is dropping on the latest comments on Iran. Says he was torn on signing it Says it is very tough Hopefully we will not have to use this, will see if we can work out a deal with Iran Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon Says he would hold talks with his Iranian counterpart

After the close, Alphabet will report earnings. The expectations are: EPS $2.13 vs $1.64 a year ago (up 29.8%) Revenues $96.6 billion versus $86.31 billion a year ago (up 12.1%) Other details include: YouTube advertising revenue: $10.23 billion Google Cloud revenue: $12.19 billion Traffic acquisition costs (TAC): $15.01 billion Also reporting will be AMD and

ThinkMarkets, a leading online trading provider, recently announced that it received an award from TradingView for ‘Newcomer of the Year 2024’. The annual TradingView awards aim to recognize integrated brokers on its platform that are at the forefront of global online trading and have consistently demonstrated providing their users with the best service over the

Prior was -2.0% Market index 224.8 vs 220.0 prior Purchase index 156.7 vs 162.4 prior Refinance index 584.3 vs 520.9 prior 30-year mortgage rate 6.97% vs 7.02% prior This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Gold Futures Surge to Record Highs, Set Eyes on 2900 Gold futures (GC1) have decisively broken past key resistance levels, setting a new all-time high (ATH) and confirming strong bullish momentum. This breakout signifies robust buying pressure and suggests a sustained uptrend. Key Technical Insights for Gold Resistance Breakout: A long-standing resistance trendline has been

NASDAQ Futures Analysis & Price Prediction – TradeCompass for February 5, 2025 Structured Approach to NASDAQ Futures Trading For those new to the TradeCompass, it serves as a structured NASDAQ futures analysis and a price prediction tool, identifying key price levels where traders may see buying, selling, absorption, rejection, or continuation. The TradeCompass is not

Services PMI 50.4 vs. 50.5 expected and 50.7 prior. Composite PMI 49.7 vs. 49.7 prior. Key findings: Fractional rise in business activity amid marginal drop in new business Renewed decrease in employment levels Rate of both cost and charge inflation rise to nine-month highs Comment: Commenting on the final PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist

The Fed blackout is over and now we get to hear every Fed member says a different version of “wait and see”. There is continued momentum in the economy though there is uncertainty Fed can take its time to look at data and policy changes Business contacts are optimistic This article was written by Adam

Services PMI 54.9 vs 56.7 expected and 57.3 prior Composite PMI 54.0 vs 56.8 prior Key findings: Jobs added in response to rising workloads and capacity pressures New business growth fastest since April 2023 Input cost inflation sharpest in nearly a year Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial

Final Services PMI 50.8 vs 51.2 expected and 51.1 prior. Final Composite PMI 50.6 vs 50.9 expected and 50.4 prior. Key Findings: Renewed downturn in order books Marginal output growth in January Fastest reduction in employment for four years Comment: Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “January data highlighted a challenging

This sounds like the beginning of the end, as Zelensky says they’re ready for the diplomatic track to end the war and ready to talk to Putin if necessary. He said Europe must be present at negotiations. I don’t believe he’s said this kind of thing before. Previously he’s said they would never negotiate away

I see inflation approaching the ECB’s target. I’m not sure where ECB interest rates will end up. Neutral rate is not very useful in policy setting. May see inflation tick up in the next months on energy. The vicious circle of trade tariffs should be avoided. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Final Services PMI 48.2 vs. 48.9 expected and 49.3 prior. Final Composite PMI 47.6 vs. 48.3 expected and 47.5 prior. Key findings: Activity levels fall at slightly faster rate as demand weakness persists Prices charged lowered for first time since April 2021 Employment falls as business confidence sinks to 56-month low Comment: Commenting on the

Bank of Japan Board Member, Tamura Naoki at a meeting with local leaders in Nagano tomorrow at 9.30 am Tokto time: at 0030 GMT / 2030 US Eastern time Back in December 2024 Naoki Tamura proposed raising rates to 0.5%, citing rising inflationary risks. His proposal was voted down with the Bank staying on hold

The times below are listed GMT/US Eastern time. 1400/0900 Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin participates in fireside chat before the Conference Board “2025: A Year in Preview” Conference, in New York 1800/1300 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks on economic perspectives before hybrid 31st Annual Automotive Insights Symposium 2000/1500

Eurozone PPI M/M 0.4% vs 0.5% expected and 1.6% prior (revised to 1.7%) Eurozone PPI Y/Y 0.0% vs -0.1% expected and -1.2% prior The highest monthly increases in industrial producer prices were recorded in Bulgaria (+5.1%), Croatia (+2.4%) and Slovakia (+1.5%). The largest decreases were observed in Ireland (-1.5%), Romania (-1.3%) and the Netherlands (-0.4%).

New Zealand is still feeling the impact of the long rate hike cycle from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, even though the Bank began cutting last year. The unemployment rate is expected to rise. From China we’ll get the second of the service PMIs for January. We’ve already had manufacturing PMIs and the official

In the European session, we will get the Final services PMIs and the Eurozone PPI which shouldn’t change much in terms of interest rate expectations. In the American session, the focus will switch to the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI data but keep an eye on potential headlines on a Trump-Xi call

The price of gold is once again making a new all-time high. The current price is trading at $2843.96. The high price extended to $2845.48. Technically, the rise today has been able to extend above a topside trendline. That level currently comes in at $2839.79. The price over the last two hourly bar tab traded

Fundamental Overview The USD opened the week higher across the board as Trump followed through with his threats and imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China on Saturday. Thankfully, it seems like Trump continues to use tariffs as a way to bring countries to the table and get some resolutions on his demands. In fact,

Bank of Japan Policy Head Kazuhiro Masaki speaking in parliament BOJ sees underlying inflation gradually heading toward 2% Price rises post-pandemic have been driven mostly by cost-push factors, such as rising import costs from weak yen Expect cost-push inflation pressure to gradually dissipate ahead Services prices rising moderately This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

Yesterday the NASDAQ index and the Russell 2000 low the way to the downside with declines of -1.25%. Today those declines were reversed. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average rose by 134.13 points or 0.30% at 44556.04 S&P index rose 43.30 points or 0.72% at 6037.87 NASDAQ index rose 262.06 points

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. And they are for USD/JPY at the 153.25 and 154.00 levels. The pair has dropped today to its lowest in seven weeks, inching below technical support from the 50.0 Fib retracement level of the swing higher in December at 153.75.

Japan economy minister Akazawa: Govt’s focus is to eradicate Japan’s deflationary mindset With ambitious goal to boost minimum wages, govt is trying to eradicate deflationary mindset This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump comments: Fantastic talks with Netanyahu Many countries will soon be joining Abraham Accords In meeting with Netanyahu we discussed how to make sure Hamas is eliminated Gaza should not go through the process of rebuilding and occupation by the same people Instead we should build various domains to be lived in by Gazans It

Wall Street Journal (gated) report, in brief: The Central Intelligence Agency offered buyouts to its entire workforce on Yuesday officials said is a bid to bring the agency in line with President Trump’s priorities employees can quit their jobs and receive about eight months of pay and benefits as part of Trump’s push to downsize

Trump continuing Earlier: Trump says US ‘will take over the Gaza Strip’ Trump: we are working hard to get all hostages released more hostages will be released tomorrow if we don’t, it will make us somewhat more violent And: sees US having a “long-term ownership position” in Gaza “and I do see it bringing great

Postal Service will temporarily suspend only international package acceptance of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong Posts until further notice. The flow of letters and flats from China and Hong Kong will not be impacted. This is part of Trump’s tariff trade war on China. Alongside the added 10% tariff, the White House announced

New Zealand Q4 jobs data The jump in the unemployment rate is bad news, though not unexpected. It hit its highest in 4 years. As I said earlier, the impacts of the sustained Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate hike cycle is still impacting, despite the easing cycle beginning last year. NZD/USD is not a

The Financial Times reports that the EU is preparing to hit Silicon Valley in a potential retaliation if Donald Trump carries out his threats to impose tariffs on the bloc, marking the first activation of a Brussels “bazooka” that could bring services into a trade conflict. The European Commission intends to employ its “anti-coercion instrument”

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson No need to hurry further rate cuts, strong economy makes caution appropriate Interest rates likely to fall over medium term Expect disinflation to continue, though progress may be slow Fed faces uncertainty around government policy Expect growth and labor market conditions to remain solid Jefferson sticking to the current

The additional US tariffs of 10% will apply to Hong Kong as well as mainland China – US Customs and Border Protection notice says ** This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The PBoC rate setting for today, the first day back from holidays, here: PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1693 (vs. estimate at 7.2661) 7.1693 is the lowest for USD/CNY (ie strongest for CNY) since November 8 last year. Earlier I posted on how China is not going to devalue the currency

Trump’s extra 10% tariffs on China came into effect on Teusday, February 4. China’s retaliation followed just hours later: China announces counter-tariffs against Trump’s trade moves levies of 15% for US coal and LNG, 10% for crude oil, farm equipment and some autos China anti-monopoly regulator launches investigation into Google As yet, there is no

Someone is going to have to explain to me how this is a real thing. Like, the US government is going to buy a bunch of crypto and just camp on it? Why? The job of the entire government of the US is to preserve the value of the US dollar. In any case, the

Australian (final) January Services PMI 51.2 preliminary was 50.4 prior 50.8 Final Composite is 51.1 preliminary was 50.3 prior 50.2 The report from S&P Global notes that Australia’s service sector is steadily gaining momentum, achieving a full year of monthly growth in business activity by January. Both activity and new orders increased at a quicker

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ANZ’s main points: The Q4 labour market data were broadly as expected. The underlying details of the release highlight that the labour market is operating with a large degree of excess capacity, and measures of wage growth remain on a path to levels consistent with inflation near the RBNZ’s 2% target midpoint. Today’s data all

A note from ING points out that labour cash earnings increased more than anticipated in December, with November’s data also revised higher. ING adds that if this year’s Shunto wage negotiations deliver results similar to last year’s, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points as early as May. ***

Comment from the crypto czar David Sacks. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Recently re China: China announces counter-tariffs against Trump’s trade moves levies of 15% for US coal and LNG, 10% for crude oil, farm equipment and some autos China anti-monopoly regulator launches investigation into Google WSJ: Pres Trump and China Pres. Xi are not speaking today More on Goldman Sachs – China retaliatory measures to have

China January Caixin Services PMI vs. 52.2 in December Composite: more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bloomberg carry the piece with a view from former Bank of Japan executive Hideo Hayakawa. Bloomberg is gated, but in brief: Hayakawa predicts the BoJ will raise interest rates beyond market expectations two more hikes possible in 2025 sees the terminal rate around 1.5%, higher than most analysts but aligned with the IMF’s projection next

Japan Overall Labour Cash Earnings for December 2024 have recorded a solid +4.8% y/y expected was +3.6%, prior +3.0% YOvertime Pay +1.3%y/y, this is viewed as a barometer of business strength prior +1.4% Wages adjusted for inflation are higher, +0.6% y/y, on bonus payments prior +0.5% (revised from -0.3%) rose for the second consecutive month

New Zealand data – the ANZ World Commodity Price Index for January 2025: +1.8% m/m +0.1% prior +14.6% y/y +15% prior In NZD terms (the New Zealand dollar fell in January, pushing up the index in NZD terms) +3.2% m/m prior +3.6% +25.1% y/y prior +24.7% *** As part of the report is ANZ’s look

Early in the U.S. session, the price hovered around the 100- and 200-hour MAs, reflecting a choppy market awaiting direction. That push finally came from buyers, driven by easing tariff concerns, lower yields, and weaker U.S. data (JOLTS showed a decline in job openings). The rally took the price up to test the Asian session

Gold is posting another strong day in what’s been a nearly non-stop rally to start the year. It’s up $27 to a new record at $2841. All the trade uncertainty has been a big tailwind for gold, which started the year at $2621. That’s an 8% rally barely a month into the year following strong

JOLTS job openings 7.600M vs 8.000M estimate US December factory orders -0.9% vs -0.7% expected David Sacks: The feasibility of a bitcoin reserve is being studied Trump expected to sign executive order restoring ‘maximum pressure’ on Iran Trump says his memo on Iran is “very tough”, hopefully won’t have to use it Fed’s Daly: The

more to come — Expectations I had seen centred on: Headline crude +2 mn barrels Distillates -1.5 mn bbls Gasoline +0.5 mn — This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API). It’s a survey of oil storage facilities and companies The official report is due Wednesday morning US time.

Investing in Europe has been a disaster for the past 15 years as it misses every wave of growth and technology development. I sense a vibe shift in the entire world around regulation, slow-moving construction, nimby-ism and tokenism. One of the few successes in the EU in recent history has been Poland, which has rapidly

TradeCompass for Bitcoin Futures – February 4, 2025 Bitcoin Futures Key Levels & Trade Strategy At the time of this analysis, Bitcoin Futures is trading at 99,750. The market structure presents a tight value area, reflecting a consolidated trading session. POC (Point of Control): 99,995, aligning closely with the 100,000 round number—a key psychological and

The BoE’s upcoming decision presents a complex backdrop for GBP, given the mixed economic data. While a 25bp cut is well-priced, the focus will be on the Bank’s tone and projections. Goldman Sachs expects gradual GBP weakness rather than an immediate sharp sell-off, but risks remain for a more dovish surprise. Key Points: BoE Expected

Stocks of Weight Loss Drugs 💊 As demand for weight loss treatments surges, investors are eyeing the industries that stand to gain—and those that may struggle. The rise of pharmaceutical appetite suppressants like Ozempic is reshaping multiple sectors, from healthcare to food and fitness. Here’s a breakdown of the market impact: Pharmaceutical Boom: Companies producing

Former St. Louis Federal President James Bullard spoke with Dow Jones / Market Watch (gated). In brief ICYMI: Bullard predicts core PCE inflation will drop to 2.3% by the end of 2025, down from 2.8% at the end of last year. Inflation is expected to continue declining toward the 2% target but remain slightly above

The US dollar is softening across the board at the moment in a slow, steady move. USD/CAD is particularly notable as it slips through yesterday’s low and Friday’s low, creating something of a head-and-shoulders top that targets close to 1.40. The mood is improving in markets, though it’s not clear yet in stock markets. S&P

Prior month 8.098M (higher than the 7.770M estimate) revised to 8.156M. JOLTs job openings for December 7.600M vs 8.000M estimate. Details: Vacancy rate 4.5% vs 4.9% (revised from 4.8% ) last month Quits rate 2.0% vs 2.0% (revised from 1.9%) last month. Total quits last month were little changed at 3.2 million but declined by

The USDCAD has fallen toward key swing area support and the lower boundary of the “Red Box” that has defined most of the trading range since December 17. Adminttedly, there was a brief volatility break around the inauguration in January, but those breaks were quickly reversed, reinforcing this area as a key technical zone. Last

According to the Wall Street Journal, Pres. Trump and China’s Xi will not be speaking today. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Europe recovered a good portion of the gap that opened the week, though the gains certainly weren’t evenly distributed. Closing changes: Stoxx 600 +0.3% German DAX +0.4% France CAC +0.7% UK FTSE 100 -0.1% Spain IBEX +1.5% Italy’s FTSE MIB +1.2% I would have hoped the FTSE 100 would have done better after Trump yesterday

The JPY has outperformed most G10 currencies amid tariff-driven FX volatility, benefiting from safe-haven demand. Historically, JPY weakness under Trump was more tied to Fed rate hikes than tariffs. However, JPY’s immunity to Trump tariffs may not be absolute. Key Points: JPY Remains Resilient to Trump’s Tariffs, But Risks Exist: Past JPY weakness (Trump’s first

Fed speakers have been emphasing the Bank is on hold for now, we should get more of the same from these two: 1900 GMT/1400 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly participates in hybrid discussion, “The Economy 2025: the Impacts of Tariffs, Tax Cuts and Trump” before the Commonwealth Club

The EURUSD is extending to new highs in the U.S. session as European traders wrap up for the day. The pair has pushed above key resistance levels, including the swing area between 1.03329 and 1.0343, the 100-hour moving average at 1.03539, and the 50% retracement of the decline from the January 27 high at 1.0371.

Canada should use military for border surveillance Calls for 2000 extra border agents If it worked for Mexico, it should work for Canada (although the border is much larger). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The upside breakout continued yesterday, with USDCAD surging past the 2020 high of 1.4660 and reaching levels not seen since 2003. The rally peaked at 1.47924 before reversing lower. After fluctuating around 1.4660, sellers gained control as Mexico secured a 30-day tariff reprieve. Canada followed suit with similar border control measures, prompting President Trump to

Given the time in China, I’m starting to wonder if this call won’t take place until morning in Beijing. A number of reports continue to say it will take place today but also that no time has been scheduled. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

It’s a pivotal day in Canadian dollar trading as the deadline for the US to impose tariffs on Canada nears. It would also kick off retaliatory tariffs by Canada and court challenges. USD/CAD was trading at 1.4555 as the call with Trudeau and Trump got underway after having traded as high as 1.4793 — the

Major US indices start the week with declines. The biggest loser of the Big 3 indices was the NASDAQ index which fell -1.20%. The Russell 2000 was also hit hard with a decline of -1.28%. A snapshot of the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average -122.75 points or -0.28% at 44421.91 S&P index felt -45.96

Trump said he would be talking to China in the next 24 hours but it doesn’t look like there is much scope for those tariffs to be released. China UN envoy: China firmly opposed to ‘unwarranted increase’ in tariffs by Trump Beijing may be forced to take counter measures US should look at its own

Tech sector consolidation: Software stocks rise amidst mixed market signals 📈 Technology and Software Sector: Signs of Strength The technology sector shows a mixed performance today, highlighted by notable gains in software applications. Salesforce (CRM) stands out with an impressive rise of 2.01%, indicating investor confidence in software solutions. Meanwhile, Oracle (ORCL) leads in software

The AUDUSD plunged yesterday on weekend tariff news, breaking below the January low at 0.61306 to reach its weakest level since early 2020. However, the pair rebounded as Mexico secured a 30-day tariff reprieve, followed by Canada later in the day. This retracement took the price back to the 61.8% level of the decline from

You have to hand it to Trump, he’s incredible at bluffing. He took the negotiations with Mexico and Canada to the limit, leaked all kinds of reports about tariffs rising or other measures and then called it all off in exchange for some token border measures, most of which were already announced. It looks like

The risk mood continues to improve with the S&P 500 up 37 points to a session high at 3748. Stocks are getting help from falling Treasury yields but that dynamic is also weighing on the US dollar, which is at the lows of the day. The market is feeling better about the global economy and

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence weekly survey. The data was out earlier, just doing a catch-up. Consumer confidence rose 2.5 points last week to 88.5 points four-week moving average +0.3 points to 86.9 points Weekly inflation expectations -0.4 to 4.6% ANZ comment: Consumer Confidence highest level since May 2022 Households are feeling more confident about the

The USDCHF climbed yesterday as weekend tariff news fueled US dollar buying. However, the rally stalled just four pips shy of the January high and key resistance at 0.9200, where buyers turned to sellers. A 30-day tariff reprieve for Mexico, followed by a similar move for Canada, sent the pair lower toward the 100-hour moving

The USD is mostly higher with most of the major currencies vs the USD up in volatile up and down trading as traders react to news headlines on tariffs (or the lack thereof). The USD is marginally lower vs the CHF and CAD (the USD is down around -0.10% in the snapshot). The NZDUSD is

Canada’s PM Trudeau: Delay in US tariffs for at least 30 days. Nearly 10,000 troops to protect border, will we keep an eye on the border 24/7 I had good call with Trump. will appoint a fentanyl czar will add Mexican cartels to the list of terrorist entities will launch, with the US, a joint

I posted on the imminent hit to China here: Extra Trump tariffs on China are due to hit in a little over 5 hours That 5 hours has shrunk now, the tariffs are due for implementation at 1201 US Eastern time (0501 GMT) on Tuesday, February 4, 2025. The USD has turned higher, here is

Fundamental Overview The USD opened the week higher across the board as Trump followed through with his threats and imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China on Saturday. Thankfully, it seems like Trump continues to use tariffs as a way to bring countries to the table and get some resolutions on his demands. In fact,

Eurostoxx +0.1% Germany DAX +0.2% France CAC 40 +0.1% UK FTSE -0.3% Spain IBEX -0.1% Italy FTSE MIB flat The opening changes are light as there is still some caution to be heeded. The additional 10% tariffs on China has gone into effect and we’ve seen Beijing retaliate with some counter-tariffs. It’ll be interesting to

Fundamental Overview The USD opened the week higher across the board as Trump followed through with his threats and imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China on Saturday. Thankfully, it seems like Trump continues to use tariffs as a way to bring countries to the table and get some resolutions on his demands. In fact,

Prior was -0.4% (revised to -0.8%) Factory goods orders ex transportation +0.3% vs +0.2% prior Durable goods orders -2.2% vs -2.2% preliminary. Prior month was -2.0% Durable goods ex transportation +0.3% vs +0.3% preliminary. Prior month -0.2% Durable goods ex defense -2.4% versus -2.4% preliminary Durable goods nondefense capital goods orders ex-air +0.4% versus +0.5%

Prior was +1.4% Whole milk powder +4.1% NZD/USD is up 8 pips to 0.6536 today. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Trump is going back to his prior harsh stance on Iran, this should be bullish for oil, which was down 3% today before the report. The official cited said the order is aimed at denying Iran all paths to a nuclear weapon and countering Iran’s ‘malign influence’. The official said the pressure includes sanctions and

Dollar gains ease in European morning trade Weekly update on interest rate expectations European indices observe a calmer mood at the open today What are the main events for today? Eurostoxx futures +0.1% in early European trading The bond market continues to hold the line for now China anti-monopoly regulator launches investigation into Google China

META Stock Earnings Report – 3 Key Takeaways for META Investors Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) just released its latest earnings report, and as always, the company’s leadership painted an optimistic picture of its future. But as investors, we need to cut through the corporate spin and examine both the strengths and risks that emerged from

Just as there is no smoke without fire, rumors, and news — especially regarding geopolitics and changes in the Middle East — rarely arise for no reason. Although tensions in the region seemed to have calmed down following the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, giving the world a temporary respite, the situation could flare up

There’s no details on the investigation as China’s anti-monopoly regulator just issues a statement that they will be launching a probe into Google “for suspected violation of the country’s anti-monopoly law”. In China, Google’s search engine itself is blocked/banned but the firm does work with some local partners on things like advertising in the country.

German DAX futures -0.1% UK FTSE futures +0.1% A comforting point for European traders to start their day is that it comes with a breather from Trump stirring up more headlines since it is night time in the US. That said, the hangover from his tariff threats is still something to work through. And for

Fundamental Overview The bearish momentum waned recently as the price reached the key support zone around the 72.00 handle. We’ve got some spikes here and there caused by the Trump’s tariffs headlines with the most recent one coming from the tariffs imposed on Canada, Mexico and China over the weekend. Thankfully, it seems like Trump

EU Commission President von der Leyen spoke She said that says when targeted with unfair or arbitrary tariffs, the EU will respond firmly, Also announced that EU will hold a joint summit with the UK in May This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ES and NQ are both higher after the good news on the pause on tariffs for Canda and Mexico: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 3 Feb: Tariffs are postponed in Canada and Mexico. The question of the added 10% tariff on China remains, though with what we have seen so far, it seems likely these

Paul Tudor Jones spoke on CNBC. In brief: There’s so many moving parts There’s so many things that are cross currents The one thing that I would say is this is a completely, totally different landscape than Trump 1.0 Trump being Trump, I don’t know if it will play as well as it did in

Trump signed an Executive Order to create a sovereign wealth fund. Says will be doing something perhaps with TikTok if we can make the right deal. TikTok could go in sovereign wealth fund Says Elon Musk is accessible only to letting people go if we need to Nobody is an out of tariffs We had

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is answering questions in the Japanese parliament BoJ is aiming to achieve 2% inflation, as measured by overall CPI, on a sustainable basis trend inflation refers to price moves excluding one-off factors This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Today there are high chances of having a “risk-on” day after yesterday’s positive Mexican and Canadian tariffs news. In fact, after Colombia, Mexico and Canada, the market is now likely to fade any tariffs news in expectations of a quick delay or some kind of a deal. This morning China promised to retaliate with tariffs

Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 42 bps (87% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 85 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 80 bps (98% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 57 bps (72% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 85 bps

Federal Reserve Daly and Jefferson speaking on Tuesday, February 4, 2025 Financial Times: China’s exporters to step up offshoring to beat Trump’s tariffs Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says aiming for 2% inflation on a sustainable basis Australian consumer confidence hit a 32-month high at 88.5 (prior 86.0) Trump says ‘great interest’ in TikTok Trump

more to come Trump says call with Prime Minister Trudeau went “very well.” Trump was asked if tariffs against Canada are going into effect tonight, he said, “Watch.” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Comments from the White House and Navarro indicated that Canada hasn’t done enough to avoid tariffs. Then again, the actions from Mexico indicate that a token move shuffling troops around is enough to stave off tariffs, at least for a month. Canada would also be wise (if possible) to time tariffs and retaliation alongside Mexico,

Trump oost on his own social media platform says: “GREAT INTEREST IN TIKTOK! Would be wonderful for China, and all concerned” This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trump may have delayed the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico but the additional 10% tariffs on China did go into effect earlier. Beijing did respond with their own counter-tariffs but they will only go into effect on 10 February. And with Trump teasing talks with Xi before heading to bed, there’s still some hope.

A note from Westpac argues that confidence that the RBA will start cutting rates at its February 18 Board meeting is expected to remain steady this week. While there’s room to debate if markets are overestimating the chances of a rate cut, says the analysis, the more important question now is how the easing cycle

An additional 10 per cent tariff on Chinese exporters is due at 1201 US Eastern time on Tuesday, February 4, 2025: Extra Trump tariffs on China are due to hit in a little over 5 hours USD strength has crept back in as China tariff implementation time nears Trump China tariffs – Trump says will

The AUDUSD fell sharply on the tariff news and in the process, the price fell below a swing area between 0.61621 and 0.6178 the momentum continued until reaching the lowest level going back to April 2020. However, the sellers turned buyers and after breaking back above the low price from January at 0.61306, there was

While Mexico and Canada have had tariffs postponed for at least 30 days: Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 3 Feb: Tariffs are postponed in Canada and Mexico. Trump says he isn’t due to speak with China’s Xi until later in the week. Which leaves the extra tariff due to go ahead in just a few

Fundamental Overview Gold yesterday extended the rally into a new all-time high as Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China led to a notable fall in real yields. In fact, inflation expectations (as measured by the breakeven rates) rose, while nominal Treasury yields fell. The thinking here is that a trade war would lead to

I have posted on the China tariffs due really soon: Extra Trump tariffs on China are due to hit in a little over 5 hours USD strength has crept back in as China tariff implementation time nears During the afternoon in the US on Monday Trump said talks with China would take place “probably over

In brief: Trump signed an executive order to begin developing a U.S. government-owned investment fund. The fund could be used to profit from TikTok if an American buyer is found. TikTok has until early April to secure an approved partner or buyer. Trump wants the U.S. to take a 50% stake in TikTok. TikTok is

There are a couple to take note of on the board for today, as highlighted in bold. They are both for EUR/USD at the 1.0300 to 1.0320 levels. As things stand, it’s still all about markets trying to digest Trump’s tariff actions. But it seems like we’ll move into a calmer period now that the

No winner in a trade war US should look at its own problem with fentanyl rather than shifting the blame onto others. Beijing may be forced to take countermeasures against US China firmly opposed to unwarranted increase in tariffs by Trump administration This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Additional 10% tariffs will be imposed on crude oil, farm equipment, and some autos New tariffs to go into effect on 10 February At the same time, they’re also announcing that export controls will be implemented on tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium-related materials. These ones will go into effect starting from today. The risk

Warren Buffett Stocks Amidst Upcoming Uncertainty? The stock market can be a rollercoaster, especially in times of uncertainty. 🎢 But amidst the chaos, the investing philosophy of Warren Buffett offers a beacon of stability. ☀️ Buffett, renowned for his long-term success, focuses on building wealth through a patient and disciplined approach. Mastering the Buffett Playbook:

The Wall Street Journal is gated, but if you can access it, the story is here: U.S. Frackers and Saudi Officials Tell Trump They Won’t Drill More President says lower prices will solve many of the country’s problems but finds early resistance in the oil market In brief: U.S. shale industry is now focused on

The low yesterday touched 4.46% and we’re roughly 10 bps above that now as the storm settles down. Trump has delayed the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico by a month but the additional 10% tariffs on China has now officially took effect. China has replied with their own counter-tariffs here. But all in all,

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem. No comments of relevance to traders. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

At the end of it all, the tariff can gets kicked down the road. Trump pushed the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico to a month from now, allowing for trade negotiations to take place in the meantime. His team might be pushing the narrative that with Canada, it’s a fentanyl issue. However, most of

The WSJ is reporting that the Trump administration is considering executive actions to dismantle the U.S. Department of Education. The plan comes as part of a broader effort, backed by billionaire Elon Musk and DOGE, to reduce the size of federal agencies. The potential executive order would aim to Eliminate functions not explicitly defined by

It was looking like an ugly day for North American equity markets but a deal between Trump and Sheinbaum to delay tariffs by a month saved the day — at least for now. The market took heart that the negotiations appear to be focused on halting drugs rather than broader trade grievances. S&P 500 -0.8%

NZ data is not shifting around the NZD, its all about Trump’s tariff trade war. The latest is: Trump will pause tariffs on Canada for 30 days The weekend announcement of tariffs ion China, Canada and Mexico sent the USD soaring and risk plunging. Trump has delayed tariffs on Mexico for 30 days, and now

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will be speaking in the Japanese parliament today. I haven’t got a nailed down time yet. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Canada interest rate probabilities could make a big move in the day ahead as tariffs are either imposed, delayed or called off. At the moment, the market is feeling more optimistic but that could change quickly. The next BOC meeting is on March 12 and the market is pricing in an 83% chance

It’s been a rough day in the crypto market with alts getting smashed but bitcoin maxis can take some solace in the rebound. After falling as low as $91,441 bitcoin has clawed its way back to $100,000 as the risk mood has improved. The big improvement came after Mexico and the US paused tariffs for

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee spoke in a radio interview, Headlines via Reuters: Uncertainties likely mean Fed needs to be a little more careful, prudent on cutting rates There are risks that inflation could tick back up If fiscal choices affect prices or employment, we have to think it through We’ve seen

Trump says call with Trudeau went “very well”. Asked on tariffs, he said “watch” Major US indices start the week with declines WSJ: Trump looking to dismantle the Department of Education Trudeau and Trump are on a call now, watch out for headlines Crude oil futures settle at $73.16 Bitcoin recoups $100K as the risk

2330 GMT / 1830 US Eastern time will bring remarks from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem. Otherwiase it’s a light calendar. NZ building permits are unlikely to move the NZD around too much upon release. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Businesses are uniformly saying they will pass on the cost of tariffs There is an outcome where the Fed might look through tariffs but also one where it could affect price expectations Businesses say pricing power is in decline. It would be a surprise if it quickly flipped Says he doesn’t expect enough clarity by

The price of crude oil is settling at $73.16, which is up $0.63 or 0.87%. The high for the day reached $75.16. The low was at $72.05. Technically, the price at session lows has been finding support at the 61.8% of the move up from the mid_December low. The price tested that level 3 separate

Anything you’d like to post in the headline driven market, here’s the place! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

It’s awfully rich to ask Canada to do this when the President is openly talking about destroying the economy and annexing Canada. It’s going to take some time to get where we need to go to on Canada This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The picture on Canadian tariffs is in a high state of flux right now with the market strongly suspecting they will be called off later today, or delayed. There are many moving parts here but CIBC is outlining a scenario where tariffs are placed today but are lifted at the end of June. That would

The GBP/USD has fully erased the declines caused by the weekend’s tariff news, driven by the positive US/Mexico truce, which is expected to last at least through the next month. This recovery has been significant, as the pair has regained its footing in the market following the negative sentiment earlier in the week. Technically, the

The EURUSD moved higher helped by the headline news that US and Mexico have come to a 1-month truce on tariffs. That weakened the USD, has helped stock recover. Yields remain lower. Technically, the price of the EURUSD has moved to test the 38.2% of the move down from last week’s high at 1.05325 to

Australia S&P Global PMI Manufacturing January, final read 50.2 flash 49.8 prior 47.8 The report shows that Australia’s manufacturing sector showed signs of improvement in January, with the PMI data indicating better business conditions for the first time in a year. Manufacturing output grew after more than two years of decline, and the drop in

The US dollar is now lower on the day against the Mexican peso. The peak today was the highest since March 2022. USD/CAD remains higher by 47 pips on the day but is 220 pips below the peak from shortly after the weekly open. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

CNBC spoke to the White House and confirmed the Mexican tariffs are delayed for a month. That doesn’t include the Canadian tariffs. It suggests that this morning’s call between Trump and Trudeau didn’t go as well, which you could tell from Trump’s post afterwards. However they’re talking again at 3 pm ET. Overall here though,

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in a letter to partners of Key Square Capital Management on January 31, 2024. “Tariffs are inflationary and would strengthen the dollar—hardly a good starting point for a US industrial renaissance.” Here is the link. Along the same lines, Trump has promised pain for the US from his tariff trade

Jibun / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for Japan in January 2025, the final reading 48.7 preliminary was 48.8 December was 49.6 The report on the numbers argues that the PMI results for Japan’s manufacturing sector indicate that subdued activity persisted at the start of 2025. Both production and new orders declined further, while job creation

The Atlanta Fed Pres. Bostic is speaking and says: The current degree of uncertainty has broadened considerably Tariffs are an aspect of uncertainty; challenging to figure out how to incorporate it Because things are changing so rapidly the most important thing to do is ask questions of business contacts, look at possible other outcomes Fed

“I just spoke with President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico. It was a very friendly conversation wherein she agreed to immediately supply 10,000 Mexican Soldiers on the Border separating Mexico and the United States. These soldiers will be specifically designated to stop the flow of fentanyl, and illegal migrants into our Country. We further agreed to

The New York Times cites a senior Canadian government official who said that Ottawa is not optimistic a real off-ramp from tariffs exists for Canada in the way it materialized for Mexico. Here’s the tweet from the NYT reporter: This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USD/JPY initially moved lower into the US open, driven by risk-off sentiment as investors sought the relative safety of the Japanese yen. This move stood in contrast to the overall trend of US dollar buying. However, following the US-Mexico truce, which is set to last at least for the next month, the pair has

On CNBC: Fed would try to look through one-time price level increases US has limited experience with large-scale tariffs I see the US economy as being in a good place overall Labor market has been in good shape, we’re near full employment It’s appropriate for policy to be patient, careful, no urgency to change rates

The softer reading mostly stems from a drop in orders, though there is still pessimism surrounding the general outlook. Procure says that “expectations in the industrial sector with regard to protectionism remain largely unchanged”. The detailed breakdown: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Late yesterday Trump said the European Union “is really out of line”, while the UK is “out of line but I’m sure that one, I think that one can be worked out”. The Telegraph cites a source in the Trump administration but that there wasn’t a broad agreement. It also says that Trump is testing

Trump and Dump: Crypto’s Tumultuous Journey Continues Amid Tariff Uncertainty In our follow-up analysis to our earlier piece on the “Trump Pump and Dump” phenomenon (read here), we take a closer look at how the “Trump and Dump” saga is unfolding on the crypto markets. With renewed tariff moves from the Trump administration targeting China,

HICP Y/Y +1.7% vs 1.4% y/y prior In January 2025, core inflation (excluding energy and unprocessed food) was stable at +1.8% and inflation excluding energy was +1.8% (from +1.7%). As for Goods, the year on year growth rate was +0.7% (from +0.2% in December) and for Services the annual rate of change was +2.6% (the

TrendIntel: Snapchat Stock (SNAP) Earnings Preview – February 5, 2025 (AMC) 📊 Data-Driven Decision Support for SNAP Stock Ahead of Earnings Snap Inc. (SNAP) reports Q4 2024 earnings tomorrow after market close. With expectations focused on revenue growth, advertiser demand, and user engagement, our data-backed perspective goes beyond traditional sentiment tracking. We analyze key indicators—paid

Bank of Montreal (BMO) has revised its outlook for Canadian interest rates in response to the economic impact of Trump’s 25% tariff. BMO now anticipates the Bank of Canada will implement six consecutive quarter-point interest rate cuts, bringing the policy rate down to 1.5% by October. This shift in expectations reflects concerns about the potential

Adam is posting on the debacle in crypto: Ethereum implodes Non-USD FX is not faring a whole lot better. The USD index is up around 1% on the session in the wake of the tariff tantrum. Weekend: Trump: Tariffs on Canada can be removed if ‘enough steps’ taken to reduce health crisis Since then: Goldman

Japan aims to push underlying inflation to 2% target At the same time, taking measures to cushion blow from rising living costs What households face on a daily basis is driven more by cost-push factors, such as rising import prices The headline remark is a bit of a contrast to what Ueda said last week

The video above outlines the technical levels driving the three major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The USD is higher by over 1% vs the EUR and 0.61% vs the GBP. Against the JPY, the USD is lower (the only currency the USD is lower vs as the market reacts to the

Trump’s launch of his tariff trade war on Canada is going to tip Canda into recession and trigger further Bank of Canada interest rate cuts. I think Australia will not be immune from Trump tariffs . For two reasons: 1. Trump is warring with all his allies, Canada, Europe … and he’ll get around to

This is no surprise. WTI crude oil is up $1.50 to $74.02 today. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Canada appears to have misunderstood the language in Trump’s executive order We have noticed that Mexico is ‘serious’ about Trump’s executive order This order is about drugs, not trade Hassett continues to refer to the text of the executive order and drugs rather than trade. I take that as some kind of opening to end

German DAX futures -2.3% UK FTSE futures -1.4% Risk trades are getting hammered as Trump delivers on his tariffs threat against Canada and Mexico. The tariffs will go into effect on 4 February so there’s still a tiny sliver of hope for things to change. But in all likelihood, it seems like we’ll at least

Analysts at US-based investment bank Piper Sandler with the estimated negative hits to economies over a year of Trump’s tariffs: Canada economic growth (GDP) sees a minus 5% hit Mexico’s GDP a minus 8% US economy a minus 1% Senior Republican Senator Mitch McConnell spoke with US TV show ’60 Minutes’: says he objects to

On Monday, key events include the eurozone inflation data and the ISM manufacturing PMI from the U.S. On Tuesday, the U.S. will release the JOLTS job openings, while New Zealand will report employment change (q/q) and the unemployment rate. On Wednesday, the U.S. will publish the ADP non-farm employment change and the ISM services PMI.

It’s one of those days where the expiries board may not factor in too much. And even more so with a lack of significant expiries nearby the opening gap levels for dollar pairs. It’s all about emotions right now in markets and Trump’s tariffs are the ones causing waves and will be the bigger issue

The firm says their model estimates that if Trump’s tariffs are to be sustained, the impact will be large enough to throw the Canadian and Mexican economy into recession. That’s the pain trade that is getting markets all riled up to start the week. In case you missed it: White House says Trump has signed

Prior was 47.0 Key Findings: Output, new orders and employment all contract further Input price inflation hits two-year high Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The start of 2025 has seen the downturn in the UK manufacturing sector continue. Factory output, new orders and employment all fell further in January as companies

Prior 45.1 It’s a decent improvement with manufacturing conditions seeing an uptick in France and Germany especially. That said, they’re still well in recession territory so I wouldn’t pin this as the turning point in the recovery just yet. Trump tariffs will be a key factor to be mindful of in the months ahead and

Prior was 42.5 Key findings: HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI at 45.0 (Dec: 42.5). 8-month high. HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI Output Index at 46.3 (Dec: 41.7). 8-month high. Prices charged fall at slower rate as costs come close to stabilising Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial

Tariffs, read from the bottom up for the chronology JP Morgan on Trump tariffs – reinforce their bullish view on gold Persistent Trump tariffs mean a minus 5% hit to Canada’s economy, Mexico -8%, US -1% AUD/USD dipped under 0.61 Ethereum implodes Bank of Canada will implement six consecutive quarter-point interest rate cuts Goldman Sachs

The risk off mood is still persisting but the dollar is at least off its earlier highs going into the session ahead. EUR/USD is down 1.1% to 1.0250 but that’s at least off the low earlier in the day of 1.0210. Similarly, USD/CAD is now only up 1.0% to 1.4675 and that is much lower

Fundamental Overview The USD is once again higher across the board as Trump followed through with his threats and imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China on Saturday. We saw also other markets like the stock market opening with big gaps due to the negative macroeconomic implications of trade wars. There’s still some hope in

But we are not quite there yet Forecasts, services inflation, wage developments will navigate what will happen in April and beyond Notice the wording that he says “April and beyond”. In essence, a rate cut in March looks to be a given at this point. And traders are in agreement with that. The rates market

We have noticed that Mexico is “serious” about Trump’s executive order Canada appears to have misunderstood the language Trump has given Canada and Mexico an enormous amount of leverage Outcome is likely to be positive for everyone involved The language seems to dictate that there is scope for talks before the tariffs come into effect.

JP Morgan on the Trump tariff trade war: reinforces their bullish view on gold maintain their near-term bearish on base metals LME base metals prices are likely to face solid near-term bearish pressure on growth concerns macro risk-off USD strength Gold 5 minute candles: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx -2.1% Germany DAX -2.0% France CAC 40 -2.1% UK FTSE -1.3% Spain IBEX -1.6% Italy FTSE MIB -1.8% With Europe in the crosshairs soon enough, investors are certainly erring on the side of caution. Risk trades in general are being hammered today though. S&P 500 futures are down 1.7% with Nasdaq futures down 2.1%

Sees a couple more rate cuts after March as well We can allow for looser monetary policy We still have space left before reaching neutral rate Trump tariffs increase uncertainty This fits with what his colleague Kažimír is saying here as well as the current market pricing. For what’s left of the year now, traders

Summarising the main points of internset, on inflation and policy: Inflation Trends: Underlying CPI inflation expected to rise steadily, approaching the 2% target. Labour shortages contribute to persistent inflation through a positive output gap. Balanced upside and downside risks to prices, with potential stagflation if global trade frictions intensify. Monetary Policy Policy Adjustments: Support for

Domestic sight deposits CHF 432.9 bn vs CHF 433.3 bn prior There’s little change in Swiss sight deposits in the past week, so not much to really scrutinise here. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Headlines: Dollar well in charge in wild start to the new week ECB’s Villeroy: Trump tariffs is a very worrying development ECB’s Kažimír: Latest rate cut moves us closer to our destination ECB’s Šimkus backs another 25 bps rate cut in March Italy January preliminary CPI +1.5% vs +1.3% y/y prior Eurozone January preliminary CPI

The dollar is sitting over 1% higher against most major currencies to start the day as Trump duly delivered on his tariffs threat against Canada and Mexico. The additional 10% tariffs on China feels like a separate discussion at this stage as it sits in a different discourse. But for now, tariff man has shown

h/t to Vulpes in the comments here: Trump will be arriving back at the White House after golfing over the weekend (amongst declaring tariff war, fo course!). He’ll be speaking with press upon arrival. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Coming up on Monday 03 February 2025: 1730 GMT / 1230 US Eastern time Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic 2330 GMT / 1830 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem Musalem is speaking late, coverage of that one will be during Asia time on Tuesday. This article was written by

The Wall Street Journal (gated) report on: Beijing Prepares Its Opening Bid to Talk Trade With Trump The mish mash of ideas China has to negotiate with Trump, the Journal cites (according to unnamed sources), include: Going back to a previous trade deal from 2020 Phase One deal required China to increase purchases of American

Prior 41.9 The contraction in the manufacturing sector eased to start the new year but there’s still decline in both production and new orders. Things are still looking pessimistic, so it’s hard to say that the improvement here will lead to much in the months ahead. HCOB notes that: “France’s manufacturing industry remains in a

Prior +2.4% Core CPI +2.7% vs +2.6% y/y expected Prior +2.7% The headline reading accelerated slightly in part due to energy prices. But the core reading remains unchanged to December, so there’s not much to take away from the latest report. The disinflation process looks to have flatlined a little but at least it’s not

Goldman Sachs: potential tariff-driven decline in US natural gas imports from Canada is too small to significantly raise natural gas prices medium-run risks to oil prices skewed downside because persistent broad tariffs would weigh on global;l GDP and oil demand There are plenty of separate analyst departments at investment banks such as Goldman Sachs. This

Prior was 46.4 Key findings: Decline in production volumes loses momentum Sharp and accelerated decrease in order book volumes Firms continue to reduce charges despite rise in cost pressures Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Operating conditions at Italy’s manufacturing companies remain bleak. The manufacturing Output

Trump tariffs will increase economic uncertainty There will likely be further rate cuts Europe will be in the crosshairs soon enough and they’re already preparing for it. Spain’s economy minister is out saying that the EU “must respond in a united way against the tariffs threat”. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Trump speaking with media says tariffs may causee short term pain more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

I posted earlier that stocks had collapsed after Trump Tariff Tantrum War was launched: Early Monday – Trump tariffs slam Stocks, surge the USD I had the usual response from political morons on social media disputing it. ****heads should stick to their lane. Anyway, NZ markets giving the heads up on what to expect around

Prior 53.3 A stuttering start to the new year for Spain’s manufacturing sector. Both output and new orders saw softer gains while employment conditions also slumped lower in January. HCOB notes that: “The new year is off to a weak start. The momentum in Spain’s manufacturing sector has significantly slowed at the beginning of 2025.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: Just saw this on social media, spot on: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The talk of the day is going to be Trump’s tariff tantrum war launch: White House says Trump has signed order to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China These have already slammed non-USD FX lower: Early Monday – Trump tariffs slam Stocks, surge the USD And, if you are in the US, go fill

Dow Jones / Market Watch have a pith article up on the market response to Trump’s tariff trade war. Dow futures tumble, oil surges after Trump tariffs end ‘self-delusion in markets’ Bolding is mine. The article is a quickie, pointing out that: investors … previously appeared to hold out hope that Trump was using the

The current market focus is on tariffs, so although we get a couple of top tier data points today, the market might ignore them altogether. In the European session we have the Eurozone CPI and the Final PMIs readings. In the American session, we have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the Fed SLOOS, but

Mike requested these in the comments given the big gap moves we have had already. Good idea. Justin will post more comprehensively on these late, but for now: EUR/USD: 1.0400 (EUR1.82bn), 1.0325 (EUR1.49bn), 1.0425 (EUR1.02bn USD/JPY: 155.00 (US$646mn) USD/CAD: 1.4400 (US$1.9bn), 1.4500 (US$852mn), 1.4300 (US$718mn) USD/CNY: 7.3000 (US$902.5mn), 7.3500 (US$606.2mn), 7.2500 (US$405mn) GBP/USD: 1.2650 (GBP427.7mn)

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. This weekend saw Trump follow through on his threat to hit China, Canada and Mexico with tariffs: White House says Trump has

One thing is for sure it is that tariffs aren’t the solution. In Trump’s first term, the US trade and federal deficits grew despite his tariff measures. Considering Trump’s agenda, the only options are massive spending cuts or tax cuts to bolster the economy. The former is going to be politically impossible and with the