Australian consumer sentiment edges higher but households remain pessimistic as inflation fears rise. Summary: Australian consumer sentiment rose modestly in March, breaking a three-month run of declines. The Westpac–Melbourne Institute index increased 1.2% to 91.6, though pessimists still outnumber optimists. Sentiment deteriorated later in the survey period as the U.S.–Israeli war with Iran intensified. Inflation […]

It feels like the market sentiment has just been reset in the last 24 hours, which started after the G7 and IEA said that they were going to coordinate a joint release of emergency oil reserves. That adds to the story that the US might be pursuing a hefty SPR release as well. And then

Summary: Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responded sharply to recent comments from Donald Trump, saying Tehran, not Washington, will determine when the war ends. The IRGC warned that if U.S. and Israeli attacks continue, Iran could block regional oil exports. Iranian officials dismissed Trump’s remarks about Iran as “nonsense” and warned regional security would

Earlier on Monday Trump did a TACO for the benefit of markets, sending oil down from its highs and boosting stocks: US Trump: The war could be over soon He has since spoken at a Republican conference where he has delivered much more mixed messaging. Summary: Donald Trump delivered hawkish remarks on the war with

US stocks rebound into the close as Trump signals war could be over soon US Trump: The war could be over soon Crude oil futures settle up $3.87 and $94.77 The good news? Crude oil is -16% off the high.The bad news? It is 10% higher on the day Tech turmoil: Financial stocks slump while

Japanese Household Spending January 2026 -2.5% m/m expected +0.8%, prior -2.9% -1.0% y/y expected +2.5%, prior -2.6% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The AUDUSD moved lower earlier in the session, extending toward support before buyers stepped in and pushed the pair back higher. The bounce has helped stabilize price action after the earlier downside pressure, but the broader technical picture still leaves the pair battling between key levels. On the downside, the pair tested support near [insert

Crude oil surged higher over the weekend as geopolitical tensions continued to threaten supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about potential disruptions to global energy markets. However, the rally lost momentum after G7 finance ministers met to discuss the situation and postponed any decision on releasing strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) until tomorrow,

Just recapping this ICYMI. The main impact on the oil price was the news earlier re: US Trump: The war could be over soon But, this info is impactful at the margin. Like I said, ICYMI, see below. Summary: The U.S. is considering easing sanctions on Russian oil to stabilise global energy prices amid Middle

The focus is of course the warmongers, not the data. Nevertheless it’s a busy data agenda. We’ll get revised GDP from Japan, for Q4 2025. The preliminary reading for this was disappointing. In brief, from the day of the flash data: Japan eked out weak Q4 growth, but momentum remained weak: Q4 GDP barely positive,

Pres. Trump has told CBS news: “The war could be over soon” He says that the Iran War is very complete, pretty much” They have no Navy, no communications, they got no Air Force. The US is very far ahead of his initial 4 – 5 week estimated timeframe. Says that ships are moving through

The USDCHF gapped higher at the start of trading, pushing the pair above the 100-hour moving average (blue line on the chart). However, the upside momentum quickly stalled. The pair was unable to extend beyond Friday’s high near 0.7828, and sellers stepped in. The failure above that high led to a move back below the

The USDJPY moved higher earlier today, testing a swing area near 158.89, a level that capped rallies on January 15 and January 22. Sellers leaned against that resistance, and the pair has since rotated lower. The move down has now brought the price toward the top of a key swing area between 157.65 and 157.97,

The USD is marginally lower against the CAD today, while the greenback is generally higher against most other major currencies. Earlier in the session, the USDCAD bottomed during the late European morning, reaching a low of 1.35242. That move tested a modest support zone between 1.35219 and 1.35316, where buyers stepped in and pushed the

Tech turmoil: Financial stocks slump while energy sees a surge The US stock market is experiencing a volatile session today, marked by significant sectoral shifts and investor uncertainty. The day’s trading has highlighted the tumult in the tech and financial sectors, while energy stocks display unexpected gains. 📉 Technology Sector Technology is under pressure today,

The GBPUSD fell sharply at the open, extending below a key swing area between 1.3298 and 1.3305. The downside momentum pushed the pair to a session low at 1.3282 before buyers stepped in and sparked a rebound. That recovery gathered momentum as the price moved back above the 100-hour moving average at 1.3347, where it

Crude oil prices have eased, trading below $100 at $96.72 after earlier reaching a low of $94.65. The move lower comes as markets speculate that G7 energy ministers may release strategic petroleum reserves when they meet tomorrow, which has helped calm some of the earlier inflation and risk concerns. Meanwhile, U.S. yields are slightly lower,

It’s a tough one, not least when the euro is also under heavy pressure amid surging gas prices. That as the energy disruption continues to permeate, with Iran striking key energy facilities across Gulf nations still. The latest being Bahrain as seen here earlier. The SNB seemed like they were comfortable enough to want to

G7 finance ministers met in their statement said that they will continue to closely monitoring the markets, and stand ready to take necessary measures possibly including the release of strategic petroleum reserves. They said that they would meet again tomorrow. The price of crude oil stored earlier today to a high of $119.48. Since then,

Prior 4.2 No surprises there as the index drops off amid the initial impact of the US-Iran conflict. I would expect investor sentiment to worsen further if given the chance to see another survey after the latest surge in oil and gas prices. For some context, the survey here was conducted from 5 March to

Shares of Aureus Greenway Holdings (NASDAQ: AUGS) surged roughly 55% after the Wall Street Journalreported that the company will merge with Powerus, a drone manufacturer backed by the sons of President Trump. According to the report, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. support Powerus through their investment vehicle American Ventures. The deal will take place

There is a report that the White House is mulling releasing oil from the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR), but no formal decision has been made. According to Politico there is fierce opposition to tapping the SPR. Those who oppose tapping the reserve say a release would solve what they consider the underlying problem (war?). The

Ethereum analysis today Ethereum futures are trading near $1,986, stabilizing after the recent pullback from the $2,100 area. This stabilization is happening under a very unusual macro backdrop. The futures market opened less than six hours ago to start the new trading week on March 9, 2026, and global markets immediately reacted to the ongoing

Well, if there was any question about whether Trump was watching the oil futures open, it’s been laid to rest. He wrote on Truth Social: Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety

Axios reports that Trump is unhappy that Israel bombed 30 Iranian fuel depots on Saturday. From the report: Israel’s strikes on 30 Iranian fuel depots Saturday went far beyond what the U.S. expected when Israel notified it in advance, sparking the first significant disagreement between the allies since the war began eight days ago, according

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar opened higher today after Israel bombed 30 Iranian fuel depots on Saturday and oil prices surged above 100$ per barrel. The greenback continues to be supported on safe haven demand and the hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations as traders pare back the Fed rate cut bets. The weak

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices jumped above 100$ per barrel today after Israel bombed 30 Iranian fuel depots on Saturday and the market feared that the conflict could extend beyond what was previously expected. The momentum picked up already on Friday after Qatar’s Energy Minister warned that prices could surge to 150$ on a prolonged war.

Today is now the largest one-day percentage gain in oil futures history, or it will be if it holds. The April contract just crossed a 25% gain. That breaks the record on April 2, 2020. On that day, WTI jumped 24.7% to $25.32 in anticipation of significant production cuts after Trump said Saudi Arabia and

The FX market offered an early indication of a strong risk-off move in early trading this week and the futures market paints that much more clearly. The S&P 500 fell 1.3% on Friday and futures are down another 1.4% at the open. Gold initially rallied at the open but is now down $25 in a

Hard to say how the conflict in the Middle East could affect Japan’s economy Many citizens are worried about rising gasoline prices The government is scrutinising to see what steps it can take Any steps taken to mitigate the impact won’t likely involve changes to the fiscal year 2026 budget In just a week, Japan

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar opened higher today after Israel bombed 30 Iranian fuel depots on Saturday and oil prices surged above 100$ per barrel. The greenback continues to be supported on safe haven demand and the hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations as traders pare back the Fed rate cut bets. The weak

The bleeding continues after a terrible period last week, which saw major indices in Europe wipe out their year-to-date gains in just a matter of days. That even after having hit fresh record highs in the week before the US-Iran conflict starting up. Here’s a snapshot for the day and how it all factors in

Monday begins quietly, with no significant events scheduled for the FX market, though geopolitical developments in the Middle East could influence USD movements. On Tuesday, Australia will release the Westpac consumer sentiment index, Japan will publish final GDP q/q, and the U.S. will report the ADP weekly employment change. While this release is usually not

Prior was +0.2% y/y CPI m/m +1.0% vs +0.5% expected Prior m/m CPI was +0.2% PPI y/y -0.9% vs -1.2% expected Prior y/y PPI was -1.4% This is a hot reading and will be even hotter with the energy price rise in March. This is the highest reading in three years. China’s Consumer Price Index,

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the German industrial production and the Swiss consumer confidence that won’t change anything for the respective central banks. In fact, the focus right now is solely on the US-Iran war and surging oil

Today is now worse than Liberation Day for Australian stock markets. The ASX 200 is down 4.3%, breaking the April 7, 2025 drop of 4.2%. In March 2020, it had drops of 9.7% and 7.4% which were the worst this decade. With today’s drop, the index is back to November levels and it it falls

Even with the decline, oil prices are still some 14% higher on the day so far. It underscores the fact that that the roughly $12 drop is just a minor knock. And that typically is what the IEA reserves release tends to suggest in extraordinary circumstances. It was the same back in 2022 amid the

It’s always darkest just before dawn. We’re one TACO away from a massive reversal in sentiment. The question is: Will Iran (and Israel) agree to stop the bombs if Trump asks? That would be a huge climbdown from the President but he’s not going to like headlines about oil going up the most in one-day

What a scintillating start to the new week this is. Oil prices have surged by well over 20%, poised for its largest one-day gain on record. And we’re talking about prices near $120 again after having initially hesitated to get above $80 last week. I mentioned last week already that the $80 mark was the

The euro is coming under increasing strain as the depth of the energy shortage from the Iran war comes into clearer focus. European countries are highly dependent on oil from the Middle East and — particularly — natural gas from Qatar as vital energy sources. Prices of benchmark European gas have surged and that will

The Financial Times is reporting that G7 finance ministers will be discussing a possible joint release of petroleum from reserves co-ordinated by the IEA later today. That in accordance to their meeting set up from last week here. I guess this meeting just went from one that was rather lame to become quite an important

Mon: Eurogroup Meeting, Chinese Inflation (Feb), Japanese GDP Final (Q4),Japanese Average Cash Earnings (Jan) Tue: EIA STEO, Chinese Trade Balance (Jan-Feb), German Trade Balance (Jan) Wed: OPEC MOMR, US CPI (Feb) Thu: CBRT Policy Announcement, IEA OMR,US PPI (Feb) Fri: UK GDP (Jan), US PCE (Jan), US GDP 2nd Est (Q4), US JOLTS (Jan), Fitch

Trump unhappy about Israel’s Iran fuel strikes – report Iran chooses Khamenei’s son as new Supreme Leader China February CPI +1.3% vs +0.8% expected Japana January current account surplus 941.6B vs 960B expected Japanese January labour cash earnings +3.0% vs +2.4% prior Trump: Oil will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat

USD/JPY is closing in on the highest levels of the year. The pair is up 80 pips so far today to 158.59, breaking above last week’s peak and trading at the best levels since January 22. That was the day of the widely-publicized Ministry of Finance rate check via US banks late on a Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls came in at -92K in February, a massive miss against the +55K consensus. To add insult to injury, the prior two months were revised down by a combined 69K. The three-month average pace of job growth is now running at a paltry 6K. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3%. Not

U.S. officials are set to launch a $20 billion reinsurance facility designed to support Gulf shipping and help restart maritime cargo coverage. The program is expected to be unveiled on Friday by DFC Chief Executive Ben Black and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. According to the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, the initiative will partner with

China gold reserves at the end of February 2026: 74.22 million troy ounces In January 2026: 74.19 million troy ounces China gold reserves value at the end of February 2026: $387.59 billion In January 2026: $369.58 billion Is anyone really surprised? China has arguably the biggest buyer out there for a while now. And that

EURUSD: GBPUSD: GBPUSD held support at an upward-sloping trendline on the hourly chart earlier today and then pushed higher, breaking above the 100-hour moving average and holding above it into the New York afternoon session. That move gives buyers something to build on in the near term. However, there is still work to be done

US stocks close sharply lower. Indices are down for the week. Fed’s Hammack: Dollar dominance remains intact as Fed stays patient Fed’s Collins: Expects the Fed rate target to hold steady for some time U.S. to launch $20B reinsurance facility for Gulf shipping Iran launches attack on US forces in Bahrain, and in Baghdad. ECB

It is Fed Collins turn to speak aa the clock ticks to the blackout period ahead of the Fed decision on March 18 starting after the close. Expects theFed rate target to hold steady for some time Now is time for the Fed to be patient and deliberative with rate policy To cut rates again,

Inflation is “too high” and price pressures are broad based Rate policy likely to remain on hold for quite some time Fed policy is in a good position to navigate inflation and labor challenges Remains committed to meeting the Fed’s inflation mandate The inflation problem extends beyond tariffs It would take a lot to dethrone

ECB’s Isabel Schnabel is is speaking and says: Temporary inflation overshoot is of little relevance if expectations remain anchored. ECB is still in a good place Iran war creates upside inflation risks. Central bank must monitor persistence of energy price shock Post-pandemic lessons suggest ECB must tread carefully. With inflation projected to be at our

Today’s stock market revealed a turbulent yet dynamic trading environment, as the tech sector faltered while energy stocks outperformed. The trading landscape was riddled with red, except for a few bright spots in specific sectors, reflecting broader market uncertainty. 📉 Technology and Semiconductor Struggles Semiconductors: The semiconductor sector is experiencing considerable pressure. Key players such

Kansas City Fed Pres. Jeffrey Schmid is speaking and says: Businesses are pausing on hiring. Labor market is under a structural not cyclical strain Jeffrey Schmid leans to the hawkish side on the Federal Reserve. In his most recent public appearance on March 3, 2026, he signaled his continued opposition to further interest-rate cuts, stating

Prior 130K revise to 126K nonfarm payroll -92K vs +50 9K estimate December was 48K. November was 41K Unemployment rate 4.4% vs 4.3% expected. Prior month 4.3%. Average hourly earnings 0.4% versus 0.3% expected. Prior month 0.4% average hourly earnings YoY 3.8% versus 3.7% expected. Prior month 3.7%. Participation rate 62.0% versus 62.1% (revise from

Reports that Iran is launching attacks on US forces in Bahrain, and also attacking military base housing US diplomatic centered near Baghdad international airport. The price of crude oil is extending above the $92 level. The high price of just reached $92.61. The current price is trading at $92.20. That’s up $11.19 or 13.81% on

The situation in the Middle East remains the main story, as it has been in markets all week long. The optimists are looking for signs of de-escalation but so far, the actions on the ground continue to tell the story that the military conflict is carrying on. The latest developments since overnight trading did at

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level once more. It’s the same approach as it has been all week with the expiries once again sitting at the figure level. The key driver of trading sentiment in FX

At some point we will all regret the “I did my own research” and “don’t trust the media” stances. We certainly need more-professional media but something about social media broke everything to do with the consumption of information and we are headed towards a dark place because of it. The algo amplifies the worst stuff

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market’s reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound

Major US stock indices are closing lower on the day, but well off the lowest levels. A late day fall in crude oil from a high of $82.16 down to the current level is $79.65 helped to shift the bias on hopes the worst has passed. Looking at the major indices: Dow industrial average fell

The initial reaction to the February U.S. nonfarm payroll report saw the dollar move lower after the headline employment figure came in weaker than expected. Job growth slowed and several sectors posted declines, including construction, manufacturing, and leisure and hospitality. The report was also weighed down by a sharp drop in private education and health

For what it is worth, the US business and retail inventories for the month of December was released: Business inventories rose 0.1% versus 0.1% expected. Prior month was revised lower to 0.0% from 0.1%. Retail inventories rose 0.4% versus 0.2% last month. It is early March, so the data is old. This article was written

The jobs report was a tough mess. It is just one month but it was not a good month. If we get several months like this data, it would be of concern. It is hopeful that we see continued progress on inflation. Hopeful that we can resume the rate cuts by the end of the

We’re starting to see oil prices approach the highs from yesterday and most notably, WTI crude oil is wanting to hold above the crucial $80 mark. Despite all the volatility and a couple of downside spikes here and there, it’s been an otherwise one-sided push higher mostly for oil prices all through this week. Right

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar strengthened across the board on safe haven demand this week after the US-Iran conflict erupted over the weekend. The main driver though was the market’s realisation that rate cuts might not come as soon as expected. In fact, higher oil prices will eventually put upward pressure on inflation and

Fed Pres. Mary Daly (2027 voting member) on CNBC and says: One month of data is decisional right now inflation is above target. It’s a balance of risks calculation. Hope last year’s rate cuts would put a floor under job market, but this report has my attention. With oil prices increasing the question is how

The report notes that Tokyo is considering to release its national oil stockpile, even without coordinated international action. The headline sounds convoluted but there’s more nuance to it when you put things into context. Now, Japan is not an oil exporter and in fact relies heavily on oil imports – one of the biggest economies

Headlines: Oil prices resume climb to start European morning trade Qatar warns that the Middle East conflict could disrupt energy exports for weeks to months Qatar reportedly offers to lease LNG tankers as Ras Laffan plant stays shut What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP? Japan reportedly mulls releasing national oil reserves

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold got stuck in a consolidation after the selloff experienced at the beginning of the week. We saw mixed and confusing moves across different markets with crude oil being the only one making sense. The focus is of course on the US-Iran war and especially on the Strait of Hormuz, which remains virtually

Prior was 0.0% Details: Ex-autos 0.0% vs 0.0% expected Prior ex autos 0.0% Ex autos and gas +0.3% vs 0.0% prior (revised to +0.1%) Control group +0.3%% vs +0.2% expected Prior control -0.1% (revised to 0.0%) Retail sales y/y +3.2% vs +2.4% prior This is January data, so it’s old news and it’s not going

Prior +0.3% More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The FT reports that pressure on the Arab Gulf states’ finances could cause them to review their overseas investments and commitments. The cost of the war is beginning to mount as Iran strikes at US allies and US bases in the region. This report is undoubtedly aimed at putting pressure on the US to either

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 has been surprisingly resilient this week even though the US-Iran war kept a lid on the market. The conflict entered its 7th day today and the risk of things deteriorating further and eventually dragging the stock market to new lows remains high. In fact, the longer this war drags on,

Will find out today if the labour market is turning a corner January job gains were concentrated, did not give comfort that economy as a whole was doing well Expect January jobs number to be revised down Could see the March meeting going either way depending on the data Don’t see a lot of tariff

In the video above, I take a look at the technicals driving the 3 major currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – as the price action defines the bias, the risk and targets during the news driven market. That news will shift – at least temporarily to the US jobs report and the

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than the final Eurozone Q4 GDP report. This is very old data by now, so the market reaction will be muted. In fact, we are almost at the end of Q1 2026 and what happens next with the US-Iran war will

The Ras Laffan plant was already shut down earlier this week, after it was targeted by Iranian drone attacks. The plant covers about a fifth of the world’s LNG supply and is the world’s largest export facility in that regard. The latest report from Bloomberg states that as the plant remains shut down, Qatar is

Prediction Score: +2 / +10 Primary bias right now: neutral to slightly bullish repair, but still inside a decision zone. I would change that view if price close below the Value Area Low. What’s that? You will learn about that here. Looking only at this daily chart for NVDA, the biggest message from the two

Japan has not fully exited from deflation Compiling extra budget would of course be an option as said before Government ready to take steps in a timely manner to combat economic impact from US-Iran conflict Markets are making big moves so we will respond nimbly while closely communicating with peers With all the focus on

China hopes to convince Iran to allow LNG to pass through Hormuz Gulf states could review overseas investments – report Fed’s Goolsbee: Institutions are facing a crisis of trust US admiral: Iran’s ballistic missile attacks have decreased by 90% Trump says Iran is contacting them seeking guidance on negotiating a deal Costco beats on earnings

Prior +0.7% Slight delay in the release by the source. UK house prices continue to edge up in February, with the average property price now touching £301,151 – marking a new record high. The annual growth for house prices also accelerated further to 1.3%, its strongest in four months. Halifax notes that: “The housing market

Just like the case of undershooting, we can also tolerate a small inflation overshoot I haven’t dramatically changed my view on policy outlook We are still in a good place We have learnt lessons from 2021/22 but comparisons with the current situation are not entirely valid Comfortable holding gold reserves at the Fed, confident in

BOJ keeping monetary conditions accommodative Gradually adjusting degree of monetary accommodation Japan is seeing inflation in the sense that consumer prices are rising But it is up to the government to decide whether Japan is out of deflation BOJ does not directly target exchange rate Will continue to scrutinise market moves, impact on the economy

Reuters is reporting that China is in direct talks with Iran to secure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for crude and Qatari LNG vessels. They cited three three diplomatic sources who are unnamed. We’re on day six of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran and the Strait is effectively closed for business, with about

The headlines here are starting to weigh on the market mood once again now as Kaabi warns that this could even drive oil prices up to $150 a barrel. He warns that while not all parties in the region have called for a force majeure yet, in which QatarEnergy has already done so, it will

US stocks close lower but rebound into the close Crude oil settles at $6.35 higher or 8.51% at $81.01 Kristi Noem is replaced as Homeland Security Secretary. Pres. Trump not looking to tap into the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) European indices close sharply lower after reversing earlier gains Oil jumps above $78 helped by reported

The Kospi opened down just over 1% after some utterly crazy moves this week. The Korean index had been swinging upwards of 10% daily, and this looks like a much more ‘normal’ day. Note though that the open breaks yesterday’s low, which isn’t a good sign. In Japan, the Nikkei opened down 1.1%. Asia stocks

Costco came in ahead on the top and bottom line in the after-hours report today. EPS landed at $4.58 vs. the $4.55 estimate, while total revenue hit $69.60B against the $69.27B consensus. Net income rose to $2.035B from $1.788B a year ago — a 13.8% jump. The comp sales numbers are where it gets interesting

CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper is highlighting something that markets should keep in mind: “If I just look back over the last 24 hours of the operation compared to the where we were to start, ballistic missile attacks have decreased by 90%… Drone attacks have decreased by 83%… we’re now up over 30 ships [destroyed].”

US stocks are bouncing higher after a report that China is in talks with Iran to allow safe oil and gas passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The price of oil moved lower off of the news, and stocks have rallied off of lows. The S&P index moved up from a low of 6771 or

Gold is on track to finish the week about $45 lower but you wouldn’t know it from Asia-Pacific trading this week. Every day since the start of the war we’ve seen significant gains in Asian trading, often fading later in the day. That strength is a hint at where the bids are coming from: China.

Crude oil prices are expecting higher and trading above the $80 level. The current price is trading at $80.67 up $4.57 or 6.02%. The high price just spiked to $81. That move took the price above the high price reached in January 2025 at the start of the Trump term. That high in January 2025

Is this the start of the end? Trump also said that further action to reduce pressure on oil is imminent. Trump talked about a 4-5 week schedule but he hates: High oil prices Falling stock prices The market pricing out rate cuts (down to 36 bps from 60 bps before war) War in general In

Crude oil crude oil futures settle at $81.01. That’s up $6.35 or 8.51%. The gain is the largest since April 9, 2025. The high price reached $81.64. The low price was at $74.97. The price is trading at its highest level going back to July 2024. Reports emerged that an oil facility in Bahrain’s Al-Ma’amir

Pres. Trump has replaced Homeland security Sec. Kristi Noem with Oklahoma Sen. Markwayne Mullen. Kristi Noem has been under political pressure due to several controversies involving immigration enforcement, spending decisions, and congressional scrutiny. Immigration enforcement incident A fatal incident involving immigration enforcement agents triggered protests and raised questions from lawmakers about the use of force

Pres. Trump is saying that he is not looking to tap into the strategic petroleum reserve or SPR. Trump was critical about the SPR reduction during the Biden Presidency. However, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is currently estimated to hold around 415 million barrels of crude oil, which is modestly higher than the level near

The NZDUSD fell sharply yesterday, breaking below a lower channel trendline that had defined the pair’s trading range since early February. That break triggered a momentum move toward a key support target at 0.5834, though the path there was anything but clean — price action was choppy, with notable two-way volatility along the way. The

The major European indices tried to continue the rebound to the upside early in the session, but stalled and reversed the sharply to the downside. German Dax was up 161.44 points at session highs. It is closing down -431.29 points or -1.78%. France’s CAC was up 47.28 points at session highs, is closing down -121.93

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen by 750 points, or 1.54%. The S&P 500 is down by 54 points, or 0.78%, while the NASDAQ index is the least affected, with a decline of 112.5 points, or 0.49%. Concerns over escalating oil prices are starting to take a toll on stock prices. Crude oil has

Below is a summary of the Beige Book from a national ad regional perspective: National Perspective Overall Economic Activity Economic activity rose at a slight to moderate pace in 7 of 12 districts, while 5 districts reported flat or declining activity, an increase from four previously. Consumer spending increased slightly overall, but two districts reported

Well, this is moving faster than anyone expected. A federal trade court judge just told the Trump administration to start cutting checks — ordering refunds on the massive pile of tariffs the Supreme Court struck down last month. This is a significant potential bit of stimulus for the US economy as it relates to $130

Shifting focus to crypto, Bitcoin’s breakout earlier this week has paused near $69K as short-term pressure builds and traders digest the prior upside push. But underneath the headline move in BTC, the broader digital asset complex was showing a more nuanced recovery very early yesterday, with Ether quietly looking stronger on the margin. Then as

Sky News Arabia reported that Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister said “Iran is ready to abandon its nuclear program on condition that the United States presents a satisfactory alternative offer”. Yesterday, we got the news that Iran has been secretly contacting the US to reach a deal and end the conflict, although Iran dismissed those reports

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar strengthened across the board on safe haven demand this week after the US-Iran conflict erupted over the weekend. The main driver though was the market’s realisation that rate cuts might not come as soon as expected. In fact, higher oil prices will eventually put upward pressure on inflation and

Reports emerged that an oil facility in Bahrain’s Al-Ma’amir area was attacked, adding another layer of geopolitical risk to energy markets. Recently, crude oil prices showed some disconnect with the headlines. The market was less concerned thinking that damage would be minimal. However, as trading progressed – and more reports about disruptions surfaced – the

The USD/CHF is currently locked in a confined 40-pip trading range as the market searches for a definitive catalyst. Buyers and sellers are battling for control, with price action oscillating between key technical “swing areas.” Key Technical Levels to Watch 1. The Resistance (The Ceiling): 0.7812 – 0.7821 The topside of the current range is

Sector Overview The US stock market paints a mixed picture today as sectors vie for dominance. Notably, the energy sector is leading the charge with key players like ExxonMobil and Chevron posting significant gains of 1.37% and 1.36% respectively. In contrast, the communication services sector sees declines, with major stocks like Alphabet (GOOGL) down by

Prior 46.4 Residential building was the main reason for the drag in overall construction activity in February, being the weakest-performing segment (37.0) once again. That being said, there were also contractions in both commercial construction activity (46.5) and civil engineering work (41.0) with the latter slumping to its softest since September last year. S&P Global

Import Prices: Prior month import prices 0.1% revised higher to 0.2% Import prices MoM for January 0.2% vs 0.2% expected Import Prices YoY x.x% vs 0.0% last month Export Prices: Prior month export prices 0.3% revised higher to 0.6% Export prices MoM 0.6% vs 0.3%. The U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes are released monthly

This isn’t a change but it’s worth monitoring as we get inundated with headlines from the National People’s Congress today. It’s also worth watching Chinese stock markets today with gains of around 1% led by AI and chip makers. Consumer stocks are up about 0.5%, which shows that the pledge to boost the consumer isn’t

US-based employers announced 48,307 job cuts in February 2026, and that is down ~72% compared to the same month last year. Some good news is that through February, employers announced 156,742 job cuts in total. That marks the lowest January-to-February total since 2022. But when you put things into better context, it is the fifth-highest

The consensus is for a softer reading in the headline non-farm payrolls figure, following the strong showing in January. The first month of the year typically has seasonal factors imbued and this time, we are expected to see job gains of 59k. One known downside factor is the United Nurses Associations of California/Union of Health

Headlines: Iran is ready to abandon its nuclear program if the US makes a satisfactory offer Is this a hint that the US-Iran conflict might stretch on for much longer? ECB’s de Guindos: Baseline scenario is that US-Iran will be a short conflict ECB policymaker Villeroy: I do not see reason today why we should

Prior 44.7 This marks back-to-back decreases in German construction activity to start the new year, following a brief return to growth at the end of 2025. The civil engineering sub-sector recorded growth but that is in contrast to the sharp declines in work in both the housing and commercial segments. On the price front, average

Gold prices have seen a sharp intraday reversal, erasing early gains to trade firmly in the red. The turnaround followed reports that central bank reserves might be sold to fund defense spending. Currently, Gold is trading at $5,105, down $35 (-0.65%) on the day. Technical Breakdown: The Resistance Wall The early session rally hit a

The main issue that market players are struggling to grasp right now is the relative uncertainty with regards to the duration of the US-Iran conflict. That mainly affects the energy security in the region, especially with regards to the Strait of Hormuz and threats to other oil and gas facilities in Gulf nations. In turn,

Prior was 212K (revised to 213K) Continuing claims 1868K vs 1850K expected Prior 1833K (revised to 1822K) Initial claims beat, while continuing claims miss. They are both in the range of estimates though and not showing any material change. The market reaction has been minimal as the focus remains on the US-Iran war. Tomorrow, we

Prior -0.5%; revised to +0.2% The breakdown shows an increase in retail sales for food, drinks, tobacco (+0.3%), offset by a decline in sales for non-food products (-0.2%) and automotive fuel in specialised stores (-1.1%). But relative to the same month last year, euro area retail sales is at least seen up 2.0%. The monthly

Fed’s Barkin is on Bloomberg TV and says: Productivity and corporate margins 2.8% productivity growth is still a solid number. Strong productivity is helping firms maintain steady margins, allowing companies to absorb some tariff-related costs. Geopolitics and energy prices Too early to assess the economic implications of the Iran war. Gas prices still matter for

TMGM, Official Regional Partner of Chelsea Football Club, successfully presented the highly anticipated “The Famous CFC” Bangkok fan experience event on 1 March, bringing together hundreds of fans from across the Asia-Pacific region for an unforgettable night of football passion and exclusive experiences. Chelsea legend and former captain John Terry made a special appearance at

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the construction PMIs and Eurozone retail sales. None of the data is going to change anything for the respective central banks or the market as the focus remains on the US-Iran war and

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar strengthened across the board on safe haven demand this week after the US-Iran conflict erupted over the weekend. The main driver though was the market’s realisation that rate cuts might not come as soon as expected. In fact, higher oil prices will eventually put upward pressure on inflation and

Unit labor costs for Q4 Prior quarter -1.9% revised to -1.8% Unit Labor costs for Q4 2.8% vs 2.0% expected More details on Unit Labor costs from the BLS: Hourly compensation rose 5.7%, partly offset by 2.8% productivity growth. Year-over-year: Unit labor costs increased 1.3% over the past four quarters. Real hourly compensation: +3.1% in

The US Dollar is trading higher heading into the North American session. Investors are positioning themselves ahead of a 8:30 AM ET data dump, which includes Weekly Jobless Claims, Import/Export Prices, and Q4 Unit Labor Cost/Productivity data. Key Economic Forecasts: Jobless Claims: 215K expected (vs. 212K previously). Import/Export Prices: Expected to rise 0.2% and 0.3%,

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices remain supported amid the US-Iran war and the virtually closed Strait of Hormuz. The bullish momentum has waned though due to some de-escalatory signals in the past couple of days. Just this morning, the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister said that Iran was ready to abandon its nuclear program on condition that

The volatile trading continues on the week and it’s tough to hold any intraday convictions. S&P 500 futures were down by as much as 0.5% earlier on but have now climbed back up to pare losses to be up 0.1% on the day. The only plausible headline I’m seeing that ties closely is one reported

The China National People’s Congress kicks off today and the five-year growth targets and plan are out, with Reuters obtaining a copy. 2026 GDP target set at 4.5% to 5% CPI target set at around 2% Growth rate set for ‘reasonable rate’ for the next five years Will set 2026 budget deficit at 4% of

The Asia-Pacific economic calendar has only one highlight today and that’s the Australian January trade balance in goods report. The consensus is a surplus of A$3.9 billion, in a solid improvement from +$3.337 billion in December. Yesterday’s price action in AUD was strange as it was a laggard despite the stronger GDP number. I tend

We have to use different scenarios after Iran attacks Baseline scenario is that it will be a short conflict Other scenario is that it will be more protracted Market reaction has been orderly ECB should change its policy stance if inflation expectations change as a result of the Iran war To look out for any

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level. It’s the same story as yesterday as the expiries here also intersect at the same level. The dollar is once again stronger today as markets are feeling a bit more

The NZD/USD is trending higher today, but the recovery is now facing its most significant test of the week. The pair is currently squeezing into a dense pocket of overhead resistance that will determine if this move has “legs” or if it is simply a dead-cat bounce. The Topside Hurdle: 0.5927 – 0.5940 The Kiwi

Conflict may have upward effect on inflation and downward effect on growth The proportion of which will depend on the length of the situation I do not see reason today why the ECB should raise interest rates I would say the fact that he has to mention it already shows how the conversation has shifted.

The major indices close higher for the second of three days this week. The gains were led by the NASDAQ index which rose by 1.29%. The S&P index rose by 0.78%, and the Dow Industrial Average rose 0.49%. With the week now half over, the S&P index is down -0.14%, the NASDAQ index is up

The price of crude oil has moved higher and moves back above $76. Iran’s strikes will intensify and expand in coming days Thousands of Iraqi Kurds have launched a ground offensive in Iran Iran says it hit a US warship with missiles 600 km away. It is reported that the missile 7000 km range and

It’s only been a little over three trading days but markets are evidently fearful of inflation pressures returning to major economies. Even if not fully reflected in central bank pricing, in which the needle has definitely moved, then at least take caution from the bond market. 10-year Treasury yields are up 16 bps since the

Major US stock indices close higher as the market discounts the geopolitical risks Bitcoin blasts through Key resistance. 38.2% retracement at $74,400 in sight Fed Beige Book: Overall economic activity increased at a slight/ moderate pace European indices rebound after two days of sharp declines White House submits nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair

Will enhance the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy To optimise the structure of fiscal expenditure Will keep liquidity ample, improve sustainability of government finances To keep exchange rate basically stable, enhance flexibility of the yuan Will release the full potential of services consumption Will boost effective investment, balance attraction of foreign investment To greatly

Well, they’re not going off into the wild in calling for triple-digit oil prices at least. The firm is offering a bit more of a measured take to start with as they see “mixed signals” from the US-Iran conflict. That especially with regards to the Strait of Hormuz, which is what market players are heavily

This was out a few hours ago but it’s important context in why oil prices are back near the post-war highs. Previously on Wednesday, a report said that Iran had reached out the US about negotiations. They were Axios reports saying that Iranians had sent messages over the last few days but that the US

Chinese stocks are up more than 1% today after the National People’s Congress revealed growth targets and some government priorities but now we’re getting some details. Chinese consumer stocks are laggards so far, up around 0.5% but we’re getting some notable headlines from the state planner now: Will improve the local tax system Will better

China five-year plan calls for more proactive fiscal policy China to continue ‘moderately loose’ monetary policy Iran denies that messages were sent to the US about negotiations China floats some tax changes A federal trade-court judge ordered a swift repayment of tariffs. Why it matters Australian January goods trade balance +2.631B vs +3.90B expected Markets:

We are going to get a bounce in Asian stock markets today but the question is: How high. Nikkei futures are trading at 56,310 versus the close yesterday of 54,245 in the cash market. That’s a healthy 3.8% rally following a 3.6% decline yesterday. I should warn that cash prices don’t always follow futures and

I can’t remember a time when the national stock market of a large, developed country traded like this. The Kospi rose 12% at the open today and is still up 11.4%. That’s after an 11% decline yesterday. If this were a time of covid or there was a war in the Korean peninsula, these moves

Bitcoin is back in the driver’s seat today, surging over 7.5%—its strongest single-day performance since early February and the second-largest gain since April 2025. The Technical Setup: The spark for this rally was a successful defense of the 100- and 200-hour moving averages yesterday. Once the price reclaimed the channel trendline near $67,400, the short-term

After most of the major European indices stretch to new cycle Heisler record highs at the end of last week, the today selloff on the back of the Iranian war was harsh. Looking at the percentage changes from the highs to the low prices reach yesterday shows: German DAX -7.10% France’s CAC -6.43% UKs FTSE

The White House has submitted the nomination of Kevin Warsh for the Fed chair to the Senate Recall, it was announced on January 30, 2026 that Kevin Warsh would be nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair. January 30, 2026: President Donald Trump announced his intention to nominate Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell when Powell’s

The New York Times reports that despite publicly refusing to negotiate with President Trump over the ongoing U.S. and Israeli military campaign, Iran appears to have quietly explored the possibility of ending the conflict. According to officials familiar with the matter, operatives from Iran’s intelligence services reached out indirectly to the C.I.A. shortly after the

I kinda got tired of people arguing if bitoin and ethereum “must still go down” or not so I turned to orderFlow Intel by investingLive.com Crypto futures are starting the session with a constructive tone, though the picture remains more nuanced than a simple breakout story. Bitcoin is once again probing the upper edge of

The USD/JPY is under renewed selling pressure today, emerging as one of the market’s biggest movers with a decline of nearly 0.50%. As broad USD strength wanes, the pair has retreated to a “make-or-break” technical junction that has defined the trend for nearly a month. The 100-Hour Moving Average: A Line in the Sand Since

The USDCAD saw an attempted breakout earlier this week fueled by broad USD strength. Remarkably, this move higher occurred despite rising oil prices—which typically support the Loonie (lower USDCAD)—highlighting just how dominant the USD bid was. However, the rally hit a wall at the 61.8% retracement of the 2026 range (1.3757). Since then, momentum has

Prior estimate 52.3. Prior month 53.0 S&P global composite index 51.9 S&P Global services PMI final 51.7 versus 52.3 preliminary and 52.7 last Details from S&P Global Overall Activity Five of seven US sectors expanded in February, down from six sectors expanding in January. Consumer Services returned to contraction, weighing on the overall sector performance.

The USD/CHF rally has finally “come off the boil” following two days of aggressive, war-driven safe-haven buying. After a sharp breakout above its recent trading range and the 50% retracement level (0.78206), the pair surged toward the 61.8% retracement at 0.78726. However, that momentum stalled at a high of 0.7878, leading to a rotation back

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight is the Swiss CPI report. The CPI Y/Y is expected at 0.0% vs 0.1% prior. The data isn’t going to change anything for the SNB as policymakers have repeatedly stated that the bar for negative interest rates remains very high and they won’t move even if

Monetary policy / interest rates We are probably about 1% away from neutral. Around 1% of rate cuts are appropriate this year. It is appropriate to cut rates at the March meeting. Would prefer continuing quarter-point cuts until the Fed reaches neutral, then reassess policy. The Fed should accommodate the AI-driven jobs transition with easier

The USD is modestly lower at the start of the North American session, with the move representing a corrective pullback after two days of strong dollar gains. Those gains pushed EURUSD and GBPUSD to new lows for 2026, while USDJPY climbed to its highest level since January 22. For EURUSD, the pair has rebounded modestly

Prior was +22K (revised to +11K) Goods +16K versus +1K last month Service +47K versus +21K last month Small business +60K vs 0K prior Medium businesses -7K vs +41K last month Large businesses +10K vs -18K last month Wages for job stayers 4.5% vs 4.5% last month Wages for job changers 6.3% vs 6.4% last

Sector Overview: Technology and Consumer Sectors Outperform The US stock market today shows a mixed picture, with some clear sector standouts. The technology sector is seeing positive momentum, particularly in the semiconductor niche. Meanwhile, giants in consumer cyclical and electronics are helping uplift market sentiment. 📈 Technology & Semiconductors: The semiconductor sector shines today, with

Upcoming events traders and investors may want to look at, in a nutshell Several scheduled market events line up over the next few sessions. Oil inventories, Treasury auctions, and weekly options expiration often affect liquidity and short-term volatility. Energy markets could react quickly to the EIA petroleum report. Treasury bill auctions may nudge short-term yields

Prior quarter 0.9% revised to 1.1% Labor productivity rate for Q4 -0.1% vs -0.1% estimate Details of the report: Canadian business labour productivity fell -0.1% in Q4, as real GDP declined -0.2% while hours worked fell -0.1%. This follows a +1.1% productivity gain in Q3, when output rose while hours worked declined. The Q4 drop

It’s been a steady ride up the escalator and now it’s straight down the escalator as the Korean Kospi has fallen as much as 10%. What a chart. Korea has been a red-hot market for the past year and was up 40% year-to-date at one point this year but this is a big drop. The

Headlines: Iran operatives have secretly made offer to discuss terms for ending the war – NYT US futures pare losses, turn positive on the day Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery struck again by unknown projectile – report Switzerland February CPI +0.1% vs -0.1% y/y expected Eurozone January PPI +0.7% vs +0.2% m/m expected Eurozone February

Prior 52.9 Composite PMI 52.1 vs 51.4 prior Key findings: Weaker rise in new business volumes, despite fresh increase in exports Job creation hits seven-month high as outlook brightens Inflationary pressures increase Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “Overall, the latest PMI figures paint an encouraging

The price of crude oil has moved lower trading to $72.39. That was just below the 38.2% of the move up from the low last week at $72.49. Staying below that level would open the door to more downside momentum. US stocks are edging higher as well. The NASDAQ index is trading at to a

The main purpose of the meeting is to assess the implications of the US-Iran conflict, with Lescure revealing that he had already spoken to US Treasury secretary Bessent and other counterparts. After which, all parties agreed on the necessity of convening next week to “fully understand” the situation in the Middle East. I wouldn’t expect

China official manufacturing PMI 49.0 vs 49.1 expected Japan finance minister steps in with some added verbal intervention on the yen Australian Q4 GDP +0.8% vs +0.6% expected New Zealand Q4 terms of trade +3.7% q/q vs -0.7% expected Markets: Korean Kospi down 9.1% Nikkei 225 down 3.9% Gold up $76 to $5163 US 10-year

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level. The expiries might just help to keep price action more restricted in the session ahead but as is the case in the days before, expect the impact to be rather

Japanese stocks are under pressure, opening 2.3% lower as they follow the lead of global stocks. It’s been a one-way trade lower since the Iran war in large part due to the inflationary spike in oil and LNG prices. Japan is more vulnerable than just about any country to oil and gas import prices and

Prior +0.1% Core CPI +0.4% y/y Prior +0.5% Headline annual inflation remains unchanged and continues to border on deflation territory. The bad news for the SNB is that core annual inflation is seen trickling lower to 0.4%. For some context, core annual inflation was still hovering at 0.9% in February 2025. It’s a slow descend

Prior was 49.3 Non-manufacturing 49.5 vs 49.4 prior Composite 49.5 vs 49.8 prior The malaise in the Chinese economy continues. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

WTI crude oil came close to hitting $78 yesterday before falling back after Trump gave his assurance, at least financially, on passage through the Strait of Hormuz here. But even so, it seems that no company is willing to take on that promise and risk getting their tankers shot down by the IRGC. Again, the

Wages need to increase significantly for Japan to sustainably, stably achieve BOJ price target Mechanism in which wages, prices rise in tandem needs to become embedded in the economy What is most important in raising real wages is to increase labour productivity It is hard to directly influence real wages with monetary policy It is

Prior 53.5 The headline estimate misses on expectations but still reaffirms an expansion in Spain’s services sector to start the year. That being said, the rate of growth is the weakest since June last year. That amid reports of softer demand and cooler market conditions. Adding to that, employment also rose to a lesser degree,

Discover how to handle drawdowns in bear markets long enough for you to see through profits during bull markets The post How To Handle Drawdowns appeared first on TradingwithRayner.

China willing to work with the US to promote communication on all levels Willing to maintain exchanges with the US Congress Hopes that the US Congress views China in an objective manner China has its own principles and red lines As always, will resolutely defend its sovereignty, security, and development interests Ties with the US

Prior was -2.1% Import prices vs +0.8% expected Prior import prices +0.5% Export prices vs +0.5% expected Prior export prices -1.6% New Zealand’s terms of trade measure the ratio of the country’s export prices to its import prices, serving as a key indicator of the nation’s purchasing power in international markets. This metric is particularly

Prior quarter was +0.4% Real GDP y/y +2.6% vs +2.2% expected Prior y/y GDP was +2.1% Final consumption expenditure +0.5% vs +0.6% prior GDP chain price index +1.4% vs +0.8% prior Gross fixed capital expenditure +0.7% vs +3.0% prior This is a good report, though there has been little reaction from AUD. Australia just dropped

Tuesday was a bruising day for gold but let’s try to keep it in perspective. It was caught up in a ‘sell everything’ deleveraging market as all the weak hands regarding the Iran war got shaken out. In all likelihood, this will go just as the US expects, with a 4-5 week bombing campaign that’s

The major US stock indices are closing lower on the day, but well off their session lows after buyers stepped in during the latter part of trading. Concerns about the Iranian war, sharply higher oil prices and yields initially pushed the indices lower, but a reversal in the US session helped to retrace some of

The USDCHF moved higher earlier in the day, breaking above the 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range at 0.78208. That break helped ignite additional buying momentum, pushing the pair up toward — and briefly through — the 61.8% retracement level at 0.78726. The rally ultimately stalled after reaching a high of 0.7878. However, as

S&P and NASDAQ index close down near 1% Trump: DFC to provide political risk insurance and guarantees to all Maritime Trade Pres. Trump speaking from the White House: Felt strongly Iran was going to attack first Feds Kashkari: Iran war impact could have monetary policy impact ECB’s Kazaks: Current rates are appropriate based on what

We are now into Day 2 of fully open trading since the war in Iran began, and the tone remains decisively risk-off. US equities are under heavy pressure: Nasdaq: -474 points S&P 500: -103 points Dow: -719 points At the same time, classic defensive flows are in play: Crude oil +6.3% 10-year yield +3.4 bps

We’re talking about some very big trade deals. We’re doing very well. Felt strongly Iran was going to attack first. Based on the way the talks were going. If anything, I might have forced Israel’s hand. Iran attacking countries that had nothing to do with what’s going on. Iran hitting only civilian places. Iran no

When I survey the scene in markets after one day of post-Iran war trading, there isn’t much surprising given the news. Naturally, oil rallied and the 8% climb is about what I would have expected given the broad attack and retaliation. A critical detail shortly after the war yesterday was Trump touting a 4-5 week

ECB’s Kazaks: Current rates are appropriate based on what I am seeing. There is no need to rush a hike. There are opposing forces coming from Iran shock and it depends on which one is a stronger. February inflation readings will keep us in cautious mode. The overall tone of the Kazaks comments are neutral

Too soon to know how Iran war will affect inflation. Iran war impact could have monetary policy impact. Elevated headline inflation bears watching given recent inflation path. Had thought monetary policy was in a good place. Fed need to see how big and longer-range shock will be. Uncertainty about tariff outlook has increased. Doesn’t think

If inflation ebbs, “further reductions” in policy rate target “eventually” warranted Central bank’s rate policy stance currently “well positioned” Eventual rate cuts aimed at keeping policy from being too restrictive Expects the unemployment rate to edge down this year and next Sees 2.5% GDP growth in 2026 on array of supporting factors Expects inflation to

While gold traditionally serves as a “flight-to-safety” asset during crises, the current price action is defying that playbook. After failing to clear key overhead resistance yesterday at the topside channel trendline (see video from yesterday), a breakdown at the $5,240–$5,250 confluence zone triggered significant selling momentum. This bearish move has systematically cleared several critical support

Prior was 2.6% Jobs-to-applicants ratio 1.18 vs 1.19 expected Prior ratio 1.19 Japan’s unemployment rate held at 2.6% for four consecutive months through December, up from 2.4% in June and a cycle low of 2.2% in mid-2024. While 2.6% remains low by international standards, the gradual upward drift represents a notable shift in a labour

The escalating blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered significant supply concerns, sending crude oil prices on a vertical tear. Prices have surged over 8.5% in today’s session, reclaiming levels not seen since mid-2025 as the market tests the critical $77.57 resistance zone. While sellers have initially defended this level, a clean break above

The S&P and NASDAQ indices are under pressure, with volatile two-way price action dominating the session. Sellers have regained control intraday, pushing both indices lower and forcing traders to reassess key technical levels. In the video above, I break down what the move to the downside means from a technical perspective, highlighting the support zones

The USD/CAD is currently locked in a tug-of-war as technical support meets a sharp fundamental shift in energy markets. While broad US Dollar strength provided an early lift, the pair has encountered a significant “ceiling” that remains unbroken. The Fundamental Context: Oil vs. Greenback The primary catalyst for the recent reversal is a 7.3% surge

The impact of the Iran conflict currently would be transmitted through oil prices, financial market conditions, and asset prices. The market reaction to the Iran conflict has been muted so far. Increased uncertainty may also have an impact. While movements in oil prices do not fundamentally shift the U.S. economy as they did 50 years

AI will change productivity growth, demand for labor. Only seen the beginning of how AI will change the economy. Higher productivity should mean higher real earnings over time. Size of AI impact is the question and is still to be determined. Do not believe AI will shift to structural unemployment, new technologies create more jobs

Sector overview The US stock market today paints a picture of volatility, with a pronounced downturn in the technology and consumer cyclical sectors. The semiconductor industry has taken a significant hit, while the energy sector shows resilience amidst widespread selling. 📉 Semiconductor Struggles: The semiconductor industry is experiencing sharp declines, with Micron Technology (MU) sinking

S&P and NASDAQ indices erase war declines and close higher on the day Reports of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz is sending oil prices back higher Trump; US continues to carry out large scale combat operations in Iran Gold’s “Blow-off Top”: Geopolitical Spike Meets Technical Resistance ISM Manufacturing PMI for February 52.4 versus 51.8

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq opened lower yesterday after the US and Israel launched a coordinated attack over the weekend against various Iran’s targets that included key officials and military facilities. Their operation managed to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and many other regime officials. Iran responded with broad attacks against Israel and US bases in

No room to be complacent on inflation Inflation is hot, demand is outpacing supply No mention of Iran conflict in prepared remarks I hear optimism from contacts about the year ahead; I share it Growth trajectory remains strong, helped by fiscal policy Labor market is in balance Services inflation strong and faster than consistent with

The precious metal tends to move in tandem with gold prices when it comes to such situations but after the volatile selling at the end of January, the landscape has changed quite a lot. Despite the recovery momentum in recent weeks and also at the start of this week, the volatility bouts are still running

Nasdaq stays under pressure amid lower growth and higher inflation fears on US-Iran war Inflation fears reemerge as markets digest higher energy prices from US-Iran conflict Will Iran really manage to fully block the Strait of Hormuz? EURUSD falls back to January lows despite ECB rate hike bets as US Dollar surges Eurozone February preliminary

Oil prices are surging again today with WTI crude now bordering on 5% gains near $74.65 on the day. The resurgence of the petrodollar trade is one argument as to why the dollar is managing to come out on top this week, after having been shunned as a safe haven asset in previous occasions since

On Monday evening, a commander from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps declared that the Strait of Hormuz was “closed” and warned that any vessel attempting to pass through would be attacked. As expected, on Tuesday oil, gas, and gold prices all jumped higher, while shipping traffic in the region only worsened. Yet there’s still no sign

French economic exposure to Mideast tensions are limited The ECB won’t decide on interest rates only on the basis of energy prices It would be a mistake to predict rate move in a hurry European gas prices have surged on Monday after Qatar announced it was halting LNG production following an Iranian drone attack. Oil

The sources mentioned that the market volatility triggered by the US-Iran conflict has now raised the odds of the BOJ holding off on raising interest rates later this month. Adding that the only real factor that could see policymakers lean towards a rate hike would be to address the sharp decline in the Japanese yen

The reaction in the bond market to the US-Iran conflict is something that should warrant more attention. While traders are focused on the risk side of things and safety flows, it’d be easy to miss that Treasury yields have actually gone up since the end of last week. 10-year yields are up another 5 bps

The AUD/USD is staging a resilient intraday recovery, climbing back toward session highs as the initial wave of market fear dissipates. The primary catalyst is a broad rebound in U.S. equities, with all three major indices now trading in positive territory. The Macro Backdrop: Stocks Lead the Way As the “risk-on” sentiment returns, the Australian

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar rallied across the board yesterday on safe haven demand as US-Iran conflict erupted over the weekend. The main driver though was the market’s realisation that rate cuts might not come as soon as expected. In fact, higher oil prices will eventually put upward pressure on inflation and yesterday’s ISM

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the only highlight is the Eurozone Flash CPI. The Headline CPI Y/Y is expected at 1.7% vs 1.7% prior, while the Core Y/Y is seen at 2.2% vs 2.2% prior. The data is not going to change anything for the ECB as central banks are trying to assess the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar rallied across the board yesterday on safe haven demand as US-Iran conflict erupted over the weekend. The main driver though was the market’s realisation that rate cuts might not come as soon as expected. In fact, higher oil prices will eventually put upward pressure on inflation and yesterday’s ISM

It’s looking rough out there at the open again as equities are being hammered lower. Investors are seeking shelter amid the US-Iran conflict and the favoured play right now looks to be the dollar. The greenback is once again higher across the board with European currencies in particular struggling. In Europe, natural gas prices are

Expected was +5.0% (some at 5.5%) Prior was -14.9% Private house approvals +1.1% vs +0.4% prior Building approvals +8.7% y/y vs +13.3% prior This is a sharp two-month drop in construction activity but think of it more as a normalization. Australian dwelling approvals were characterised by significant monthly volatility through 2025, driven almost entirely by

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for USD/JPY at the 157.00 level. However, the expiries don’t tie to any technical significance and may not have too much impact considering prevailing trading sentiment in broader markets. As traders digest the US-Iran conflict and

There was a bit of profit-taking at the onset yesterday but given time to digest the Middle East situation, we’re starting to see oil prices surge higher again today. The jump on the day now sees prices move back up to contest the highs from the opening gap higher yesterday. WTI crude oil is now

The firm argues that but for plausible intervention by the SNB yesterday, the Swiss franc would’ve recorded better gains in reaction to the US-Iran conflict thus far. The key line in the sand that they’re highlighting is the obvious one at 0.90 for EUR/CHF. That is one that has become quite evident after the break

The latest update from the US Central Command: “US forces have destroyed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command and control facilities, Iranian air defense capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and military airfields during sustained operations. We will continue to take decisive action against imminent threats posed by the Iranian regime.” At first read, this should

Board uncertain if financial conditions sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to midpoint of target in reasonable timeframe Range of indicators tell us that labour market conditions are tight Economic data since Feb rate hike support that move Underlying demand in economy further from supply potential than we had assessed Large part of unexpected increase in

With all that is happening in the Middle East, let’s not forget that there is also an ongoing trade war between the US and the rest of the world. The Supreme Court shooting down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs has changed the landscape here dramatically. And that is making for a bit of an awkward setting ahead

New Zealand building consents rose 1.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, clawing back some of December’s 4.5% decline. The monthly number is fine but the real story here is in the annual figures — and for the first time in a while, there’s something constructive to talk about. In the year ended January

Prolonged conflict could lead to a “substantial spike” in inflation At the same time, it could also cause a “sharp drop in output” in the euro area Directionally, a jump in energy prices puts upward pressure on inflation especially in the near-term The magnitude of the shock heavily depends on “the breadth and duration of

Crude oil prices have pushed back above the $72.50 level, with WTI now trading roughly 7.8% higher on the day, as geopolitical risk continues to dominate price action. The latest advance follows a corrective pullback earlier in the North American session that saw prices dip toward the $70 area before buyers stepped back in and

Gold jumped at the weekly open due to uncertainty around the Iran war but that quickly gave way to profit taking and it sagged down to $5300. Then a second and third wave of bids arrived in Europe and the US leading to a session high of $5419 before selling into the US close and

It’s been a challenge for traders and investors seeking a ‘back to risk-on sentiment’ vibe with all the action around. The market landscape remains highly sensitive to headlines, as evidenced by reports of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz which once again sent oil prices climbing. This volatility initially pressured equities, yet the S&P and

The market is trying to suss out what the plan is for Iran. Yesterday there was an interview with John Bolton that emphasized that Trump is impulsive and likes to improvise. Trump himself also outlined a 4-5 week timeline, which suggests there is a plan. What’s less clear are the goals of the mission, which

The broader S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices closed higher on the day after staging an impressive rebound from sharp losses seen shortly after the open. Early selling pressure faded as buyers stepped back in, allowing equities to recover into the close. The S&P 500 fell as much as 72 points at session lows before reversing

The USD/CAD has undergone a decisive shift during the North American session. As the recent surge in oil prices began to lose steam, the pair found the momentum needed to snap higher, fundamentally altering the short-term technical landscape. The Bullish Breakout: Reclaiming the Moving Averages The initial spark for this move was a successful breach

The USD/JPY bulls made a massive power play in today’s session, but the momentum has hit a significant wall. While the morning was defined by aggressive buying, the failure to sustain the breakout has handed the “short-term steering wheel” back to the sellers. The Rise: Clearing the 100-Hour MA and Last Week’s High The day

Choosing a forex broker can be confusing. One site advertises “low spreads,” another emphasises “fast execution,” and a third promotes a bonus while hiding real costs in the fine print. Most traders end up doing the same thing: opening 10 tabs, taking notes, and still feeling unsure. That’s why here at investingLive, we have launched

The EUR/USD experienced a sharp sell-off today, cascading from a high near the converged 100 and 200-hour moving averages (1.1786) down to a session low of 1.1671. While fundamental drivers sparked the volatility, the price action is currently being defined by a high-stakes tug-of-war between two major technical levels. The Support Zone: 200-Day Moving Average

Iran refused to cease its pursuit of nuclear weapons Regime ballistic missile program was growing rapidly Would have soon had missiles capable of reaching America Ensuring they cannot obtain nuclear weapon Ensuring cannot fund or direct armies outside their borders We are ahead of our time projections An Iran with nuclear weapons would be intolerable

Prior month 52.6 ISM Manufacturing PMI 52.4 vs 51.8 estimate Prices paid 70.5 versus 60.0 estimate. Last month 59.0. Highest level since June 2022 Employment 48.8 versus 48.1 last month New orders 55.8 versus 57.1 last month. Weakest since December 2025 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Even when markets are volatile and there is a lot of uncertainty, we would still make necessary decision At times, we might need to shift policy precisely because markets are volatile It’s not as if we would hold off on changing policy just because markets are volatile Appropriate to keep monetary conditions accommodative and gradually

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Crude oil opened with a big positive gap today after the US and Israel launched a coordinated attack over the weekend against various Iran’s targets that included key officials and military facilities. Their operation managed to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and many other regime officials. Iran responded with broad attacks against Israel

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ initially buckled under the weight of escalating tensions in Iran, but the “first move” once again proved to be an overreaction. After a steep premarket slide, buyers stepped in during early U.S. trading, sparking a sharp recovery and stabilizing risk sentiment. The NASDAQ’s intraday journey was particularly telling: after plunging

The escalation of the conflict in Iran sent gold prices on a vertical trajectory, with the metal surging $140.71 to hit a session high of $5,419.32. However, the rally proved short-lived. Since that peak, the market has undergone a violent reversal, erasing all gains to trade slightly into the red (down ~$18.00 from the previous

Sector Overview: Technology Decline and Financial Fluctuations The US stock market is witnessing a significant downturn in the technology sector today, with key players such as Microsoft (MSFT) barely breaking even at +0.07% and Oracle (ORCL) dropping by 2.21%. Notably, semiconductor giants like Broadcom (AVGO) and Micron (MU) are down 3.43% and 3.53% respectively, indicating

Prior +0.3% UK house prices were seen steady, growing slightly again in February. That brings the average price of a dwelling in the UK to £273,176. The annual house price growth keeps unchanged as in January at +1.0%. Nationwide notes that: “This reinforces the view of a modest recovery after a dip at the end

The USD is higher vs the major currencies as the market digests the war in Iran. A snapshot shows: Swiss Franc (CHF): +1.08% Euro (EUR): +0.77% New Zealand Dollar (NZD): +0.77% Japanese Yen (JPY): +0.72% British Pound (GBP): +0.58% Australian Dollar (AUD): +0.55% Canadian Dollar (CAD): +0.12% In the video above, I take a technical

It looks like we’re finally getting a feel of where the SNB wants to draw the line next in EUR/CHF. This has been a key debate since the start of the year and especially more so after the pair fell below the previous line in the sand around 0.9200. That led to the hot question

Central Banker Comments Bank of Canada — Kozicki Key Messages Monetary policy may need tightening even during economic weakness. Supply-side developments are increasingly important in fighting inflation. Policy Bias: Hawkish bias — willingness to prioritize inflation control even if growth softens. European Central Bank (ECB) Kocher Key Messages ECB should be ready to move rates

Since last year, the dollar hasn’t been the favoured haven currency in most negative risk events. In fact, it’s also not the yen but instead the franc took over the mantle. That amid the own problems brought about by the US administration and Tokyo’s policy directive change after Takaichi took over as prime minister. But

Some of you have already seen this bull flag in oil in my previous oil technical analysis article, well before the war started over the weekend. But here it is again with a detailed technical explanation. Remember, there is no “one single way” to do “technical analysis”. I use broad perspectives such as the ones

Real interest rates still significantly negative; policy remains accommodative following December’s hike to 0.75% Natural rate of interest estimated between -1% and +0.5%, wide range makes precise policy calibration difficult Food price inflation primarily supply-side shock, not demand driven; expects deceleration below 2% in H1 2026 US economy resilience surprised to upside; AI-related investment spillover

The early stages of the US-Iran conflict is seeing the US dollar and the Swiss franc among the more favoured currencies so far today. The Japanese yen typically has safen haven traits but has lost a lot of that allure in recent months. And now with oil prices swinging higher, that’s compounding woes as energy

Prior month 51.2 revise from 52.4 S&P Global manufacturing PMI 51.6 versus 51.2 expected Chris Williamson (S&P Global Market Intelligence) signaled that US manufacturing momentum softened in February, reflecting slower demand, tariff uncertainty, and weather disruptions. While inflation pressures are easing and optimism has improved somewhat, businesses remain cautious on hiring and investment amid ongoing

Comments from U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth U.S. will conclude operations under “America First” conditions. Iran was building a shield for nuclear ambition This is not an endless war. Iran operation will include casualties. Operation is not directed at Iraq and is not an endless war. U.S. mission in Iran is to destroy Iran’s missiles,

In view of the current international situation, we are more prepared to intervene in currency markets We are ready to intervene in the FX market to dampen any rapid, excessive appreciation of the franc More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Crypto futures are navigating a heavy geopolitical backdrop, but the price response so far has been more controlled than many would have expected after an intense weekend. Rather than a straight-line liquidation, both Bitcoin and Ether are showing two-way trade with clear areas where participation has concentrated and where follow-through has repeatedly stalled. This write-up

Monday begins with the release of manufacturing PMI data for the Eurozone, the U.K., and the U.S. On Tuesday, the euro area will publish flash estimates for CPI y/y and core CPI y/y, while in the U.K., attention will focus on the annual budget release. Wednesday brings GDP q/q data from Australia and the CPI

The European Commission is said to have sent an email to EU governments, in noting that it sees no immediate impact on the bloc’s security of oil supply from the situation in the Middle East. That according to Reuters, who has glanced over the email details with it stating that: “At this stage, we do

There is just one to take note of for the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1750 level. But on a day like this, the impact of any larger option expiries should be negated. This one keeps near to the current spot price but I would say that it

There’s plenty to digest as we get the new week/month underway in trading today. The main story is that the US, alongside Israel, finally decided to launch military attacks against Iran. Reports are saying that the strikes were supposed to be carried out last week but were delayed due to operational and intelligence reasons. Nonetheless,

Prior 49.2 That’s a slight improvement to the January estimate, as production levels were seen broadly stable in February. That being said, the order books declined for a third straight month albeit at a slower rate at least. On the price front, Spanish manufacturers saw another steep rise in input prices with the rate of

Prior was 49.1 Key findings: Comment: This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Oil futures opened for the week in what will surely be the most-closely followed market today and for the next few weeks. WTI crude jumped 11% to $74.57 ($75.33 was the high print). Brent is trading up about 8% after briefly touching $82.37. It’s taken only seconds for some selling to kick in. The war

Crude oil futures opened the new week with a sharp gap higher, reflecting a renewed geopolitical risk premium following weekend developments in the Middle East. Early trade has been volatile and two‑sided, with price discovery stretching across a wide intraday range (roughly $69.20 to $75.33 on the session data shown), before settling back into the

Things are just getting messier by the hour. QatarEnergy is the state-owned integrated energy company of Qatar. And they have just announced a stop to its LNG production and associated products. That follows attacks on its operating facilities in Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City. For some context, Qatar ranks as among the

Headlines: Gold prices surge as US-Iran conflict triggers a flight to safety: Record highs in sight This Technical Map Shows Oil’s Technical Analysis Before and After the War Dollar holds firmer across the board as markets digest US-Iran conflict Swiss franc tumbles after SNB warning earlier We are more prepared to intervene in FX market

A Reuters source is reporting that Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery, which is the largest oil refinery in the Middle East, was hit by a drone attack and forced to shut down as a precautionary measure. The source did note that the “situation is under control” though. However, the strike continues to highlight the kind

Prior 51.2 The final estimate is a slight nudge up to the initial reading, so it at least sees back-to-back months of increase in French manufacturing activity at the start of 2026. That being said, the February reading is rather marginal as production expanded in the absence of new order growth. On the price front,

I just finished writing up an interview with former Trump National Security Advisor John Bolton and he talked about how Trump “doesn’t do strategic thinking” and his latest comments to the New York Times underscore that. “The president offered a variety of often inconsistent visions of how a new government could take shape after the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold started to rally steadily on Friday after we got various reports of evacuations that indicated a possible strike to follow over the weekend. Sure enough, the US and Israel launched a coordinated attack against various Iran’s targets that included key officials and military facilities. Their operation managed to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader

PEC+ agreed a modest oil output boost of 206,000 barrels per day on Sunday. The initial expectations were for no change but last week a leak said they were considering an additional 137K bpd. Ultimately, they decided on even more — likely due to the US strikes on Iran. The crude won’t be produced until

All eyes are on Iran at the moment but let’s change gears for a moment and have a look at the US earnings calendar. The last few weeks have been dominated by mega-cap tech and AI infrastructure, this week provides the a read-through on the global consumer. We have major discount retailers, big-box tech stores,

Prior +0.1%; revised to +1.2% The drop here needs to be put into context a little more, as it comes after a major bump up in the December 2025 retail sales jump. That figure was seen revised from +0.1% to +1.2% on the month. So, the miss on estimates in the headline isn’t as bad

Prior 49.5 Germany’s improvement is the main story driving the recovery in the euro area manufacturing sector to start the new year. Hopes of a sustained return to growth is making for a more optimistic picture at the moment. The headline reading is a 44-month high with the manufacturing output index also moving up to

Prior 48.1 Key findings: Fresh growth in output and new orders, ending two-month run of decline Brightest 12-month outlook in just over five years Intensification of cost and charge inflation Comment: Commenting on the PMI data, Jonas Feldhusen, Junior Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said: “In February, we saw tentative signs of improvement in Italy’s

Prior 48.8 Hopes for a recovery in the Swiss industry were dashed with this being another contractionary reading in February. This marks a 38th straight month that Switzerland’s manufacturing sector recorded below the 50-point growth threshold. Of note, production slumped back lower with new orders also softening once again. The details: It reaffirms that the

Prior 51.8 Key findings: New export orders rise at quickest pace in four and-a-half years Business sentiment stays close to January’s recent high Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence “UK manufacturing has made an encouraging start to 2026. Output rose at the quickest pace in 17 months during February, building on a

BOJ’s Himino: GDP is tracking okay Trump floats lifting sanctions against a new Iranian regime Bolton warns Trump may not have thought past the trigger on Iran OPEC+ hiked oil production by 206,000 bpd in Sunday’s meeting Trump: We have hit hundreds of targets Markets: WTI crude oil up $3.74 to $5.6% US 10-year yields

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we get the final PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. The data isn’t going to change anything for the respective central banks and will certainly be overshadowed by the conflict in the Middle East. In fact, depending on the length of the conflict, all the data

The Cashback Forex platform “UTSPAY” is now offering a special $40 Migration Bonus for traders who move their current cashback connection to the platform. In addition to this bonus, traders also earn cashback on every trade through a fxrebate system that returns part of the trading commission back to the user. This promotion gives traders

John Bolton gave a candid interview to Politico and it’s worth reading carefully if you’re trying to figure out what comes next for oil markets and geopolitical risk. The former National Security Adviser praised the strikes as the “most consequential decision” of Trump’s presidency, but his warnings were pointed. Bolton said he’s “very worried” that

It’s going to be a dramatic day in markets as we reprice everything based on the war in Iran. Oil is obviously the big asset to watch but I’d warn that there was heavy front-running in the lead-up to the war. I’d estimate a premium of $5-8 so there is an incentive for the people

When the market hears bombs, it buys bonds. Or at least that’s usually the case. This time, the market is weighing whether the war in Iran is inflationary due to the 4.5% rise in oil prices so far. Notably, the gains in the oil market have been halved since the open but yields are at

By now, everyone knows what’s happening as the US and Israel strike Iran. Here is the state of play one hour into futures trading: WTI crude up $5.37 to $72.40 (about 8%) Gold up 2% to $5385 The US dollar leads in FX, narrowly ahead of CHF AUD/USD is the biggest mover, down 60 pips

Comments from Trump in a newly-released video: On Iran: We have hit hundreds of targets including Revolutionary Guard facilities, air defense systems and nine ships plus naval building On Iran: Combat operations continue On Iran: Military operations will continue until all of our objectives are achieved There will likely be more U.S. casualties Iranian regime

Highlights include US NFP, Retail Sales, ISM PMIs, OPEC, EZ Flash HICP, ECB Minutes and Australian GDP Sun: OPEC Meeting Mon: German Retail Sales (Jan), Final Manufacturing PMIs (Feb), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Tue: Japanese Unemployment (Jan), EZ Flash HICP (Feb), US RCM/TIPP (Mar), UK Spring Statement Wed: Australian GDP (Q4), Chinese NBS PMIs

As the Israel-Iran war moves into its second day, the story is escalating fast, and markets are already treating it as a week-level event rather than a one-night shock. Reuters reported that Iranian state media confirmed the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei following US and Israeli strikes. (Reuters) In parallel, U.S. President

Major US stock indices close lower. S&P and NASDAQ index down for the month Why private equity stocks are getting wrecked today Trump: Not happy with Iran but more talks expected on Friday Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q1 3.0% versus 3.1% last Iran strikes loom large over today’s trade Silver sprints higher, gains

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q1 dipped to 3.0% from 3.1% last. In their own words The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2026 is 3.0 percent on February 27, down from 3.1 percent on February 24. After this morning’s releases from the

According to Israeli Media: A Broad US–Israel Strike Campaign in Iran and Markets May Be Entering a Full Geopolitical Week In the last hour, Israeli media is describing a large-scale, coordinated strike campaign inside Iran, framed not as a limited tactical action but as the opening phase of a broader, multi-day operation. The attack started

As the trading week comes to a close, the AUDUSD is higher on the week and continues to trade above a key cluster of moving averages, including the 100-hour moving average at 0.7093, the 200-hour moving average at 0.7078, and the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.7070. Holding above this moving average

US Pres. Trump is speaking on Iran and says: Not happy with Iran, but were talks expected Friday. Has not made a decision on Iran and not happy with how they negotiate. Iran cannot have nuclear weapon. There may or may not be a regime change in Iran. Wants to make a deal with Iran.

Both the S&P index only NASDAQ index closed lower for the month. The S&P fell -0.87% after a gain of 1.37% in the month of January. The NASDAQ index-3.38%. That was its worst month since March 2025. The Dow industrial average rose by a modest 0.17%. For the trading day, the major indices are all

In the video above, I take a deep dive into some of the major currency pairs from a technical perspective as the week comes to a close and the new week and month starts. In the video, I take a look at the: EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF USDCAD and AUDUSD Prepare for the new week

I don’t think anyone will be shedding a tear for the declines in private equity stocks but Blue Owl (which is notorious for software loans): -6% Jefferies -10.3% Apollo -8.4% KKR -7.3% Ares -7.1% Goldman Sachs -7% Morgan Stanley 6.6% The fundamental pitch of private equity is leveraged lending and buyouts. There were buyouts of

Prior +2.1% HICP +2.0% vs +2.1% y/y expected Prior +2.1% Core CPI Y/Y +2.5% vs +2.5% prior We have slight misses here but that was pretty much expected after the softer German states readings here. Having said that, the core measure matched the prior reading. The data won’t change anything for the ECB. The market

Silver is up nearly 6% as it looks to break out of a recent range. These are the best levels since the crushing rout on January 30. Notably, that was the final trading day of January and this is the final trading day of February. The chart suddenly looks more promising as it breaks above

Prior YoY was +3.0% PPI M/M +0.5% vs 0.3% expected Prior +0.5% (revised to 0.4%) Core PPI Core PPI Y/Y +3.6% vs +3.0% expected Prior +3.3% Core PPI M/M +0.8% vs +0.3% expected Prior Core PPI MoM +0.7% (revised to 0.6%) WHAT THE US PPI MEASURES? The Producer Price Index (PPI) is an economic indicator

The NASDAQ index pushed to a high on Monday but failed to extend above its falling 100-hour moving average, a rejection that triggered a sharp move lower. The decline reached Tuesday’s weekly low near 22,193, aligning with the top of a key swing support area. A subsequent rebound carried the index back above the 100-hour

Headlines: Gold remains supported amid US-Iran uncertainty, but downside risks linger with NFP next Oil prices remain supported amid US-Iran uncertainty; traders likely to hedge into weekend Major currencies not up to much as we get into the final stretch of the week Bavaria February CPI +1.9% vs +2.1% y/y prior France February preliminary CPI

German inflation remains one of, if not the key sticking point for the ECB in trying to sort out monetary policy setting. Price pressures in Europe’s largest economy hasn’t dropped off enough to allow for the central bank to take more steps in lowering interest rates further. And late last year, there were still stagflation

There is no sense over-analyzing price action today across markets. Yes, there is the usual software anxiety in stock markets but the overarching theme across bonds, FX, commodities and precious metals is simple — angst about US strikes on Iran. That thinking has US 10-year yields below 4% for the first time since November while

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. more to come – Earlier, PBOC trimming some support for the yuan: PBOC cuts FX risk reserve ratio to 0%, slowing yuan appreciation This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar continues to bounce around as macro and geopolitical uncertainty is keeping the market rangebound. The greenback strengthened yesterday after early reports suggested the third round of US–Iran talks had broken down, with Iran reportedly rejecting US demands. Later in the day, however, new headlines indicated that the discussions had

The broader market sentiment is one that looks to be more cautious, especially with the sudden hit in Wall Street overnight. In the end, US stocks ended lower but it could’ve been worse. Tech shares led the declines as the S&P 500 fell by 0.5% and Nasdaq by 1.0%, while the Dow closed flat. That’s

The USDCHF is moving lower in North American trading, pressured by a softer US dollar backdrop as risk sentiment deteriorates. US equities opened sharply lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.78% and the NASDAQ falling 1.08%. At the same time, US yields are declining despite higher-than-expected PPI data, signaling markets are looking past inflation strength

UK confidence slips as unemployment rises and car output weakens, clouding the early-year growth outlook. Summary: UK consumer confidence fell to -19 in February, a three-month low Unemployment rose to 5.2%, highest since early 2021 Car production dropped 8.2% y/y in January; exports down 10.1% Commercial vehicle output plunged 68.6% amid restructuring Savings rate remains

The USDCAD moved lower in the latest hourly bar, testing Monday’s low near 1.3649. The break lower has been modest so far, but sellers remain in control as downside pressure persists. Earlier in the session, the pair briefly moved higher following the PPI release, but that rally quickly faded after the price tested the 100-hour

Sector Overview The stock market today showcases a complex tapestry of trends and fluctuations. The technology sector is under significant pressure, with major players like Microsoft (MSFT) down by 2.63% and Nvidia (NVDA) witnessing a 2.24% decline. Notably, Broadcom (AVGO) is also down by 3.11%, pointing towards a widespread downturn within the tech space. On

Major banks reaffirm confidence in NVIDIA’s AI growth runway, lifting targets and flagging multi-year demand visibility. Summary: JPMorgan maintains Buy, lifts price target to $265 from $250 UBS reiterates Buy, keeps $245 target UBS says it’s “hard to see” why shares remain rangebound Analysts point to stronger guidance, demand visibility, backlog into 2027 Street sees

While a lot of focus on the BOJ is turning to the outcome of the spring wage negotiations in the weeks ahead, ANZ is one to argue that the bigger picture outlook might be one that limits the scope for the central bank to stay on the tightening path. And the firm argues that it

Development process during the 14th ‘five-year plan’ period is “extremely unusual and extraordinary” China’s economic strength and comprehensive national strength has jumped to a whole new level To make greater efforts to protect and improve people’s livelihood To continue to expand domestic demand, optimise supply conditions Will implement more active and promising macro policies And

Prior was +0.5% Private construction +0.5% Residential construction +1.5% Non-residential construction -0.7% Public construction -0.5% m/m Public construction +3.6% y/y Given the jumps in shares of CAT and DE, there better be some construction spending in the pipeline. The annualized rate in the report is $2,168.8 billion, which is down 0.4% from last December. Private

Prior -0.5%; revised to -0.4% Swiss economic output bounces back in the final quarter of last year, after a drag in the third quarter. The decline was largely due to a big fall in the chemical and pharmaceutical industry, but that has now rebounded (+1.9%) in Q4 2025. Domestic demand conditions (+0.5%) held up and

UK political developments are looking set to return into the picture, especially with the latest happening in Manchester. The Gorton and Denton by-election saw a rather seismic result, with Labour losing a seat that they have held for nearly a century. For some context, the by-election was triggered after MP Andrew Gwynne resigned due to

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices surged yesterday after early reports suggested the third round of US–Iran talks had broken down, with Iran reportedly rejecting US demands. Later in the day, however, new headlines indicated that the discussions had actually made significant progress and that another round was scheduled for next week. The prices pulled back on

Prior was +2.6% GDP -0.2% q/q vs +0.6% prior Real GDP increased 1.7% in 2025 The number might not be as bad as it looks as the fourth quarter decrease was largely due to withdrawals of business inventories following inventory accumulations in the third quarter. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

U.S. equity futures are under pressure this morning, with the Nasdaq (NQ) and S&P 500 (ES) both down 0.9%, while the Russell 2000 (RTY) is lagging further with a 1.3% drop. While the “Magnificent 7” are seeing modest declines led by Microsoft (-2.5%), the real story is a violent resumption of selling in the software

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, the main highlight is going to be the German inflation data both the state readings and the national CPI. We will also get the French and Spanish inflation figures, but the German data is generally more market-moving because it carries more weight in the Eurozone CPI calculations. The German

TGIF. The USD is little changed to start the North American session as traders await the US January PPI report at 8:30 AM ET. Expectations are for a +0.3% MoM increase, while the YoY rate is forecast to ease to 2.6% from 3.0%. The dollar is trading mixed against the major currency pairs — EURUSD,

Block’s AI-explicit workforce reset, rewarded with a ~25% after-hours pop. May WILL become the template other CEOs copy next. Block will cut 4,000+ roles, taking headcount from 10k+ to just under 6k (nearly half). Management framed the move explicitly as an AI-enabled operating model: smaller, higher-talent teams using AI to automate more work. The market

Japan’s Katayama flags FX “urgency” as Takaichi fiscal push keeps yen pressured USD/CNY rebounds as PBOC scraps FX risk reserve ratio to cool yuan rally – recap Japan capital CPI slips under BOJ target in policy test USD/CNY & USD/CNH jump as PBoC cuts FX RRR to zero, cooling yuan gains PBOC sets USD/ CNY

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Summary: Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Japan is watching the yen’s slide “with a strong sense of urgency” and is in close communication with the US. The warning lands as PM Sanae Takaichi pushes a more expansionary fiscal stance that markets see as yen-negative at the margin. Takaichi has also nominated two dovish-leaning BOJ board

Tokyo core inflation dips below 2%, but firm underlying prices keep BOJ tightening bias intact. Summary: Tokyo February headline CPI: 1.6% y/y (exp 1.4%) Core (ex fresh food): 1.8% y/y (exp 1.7%, prior 2.0%) Core-core (ex fresh food & energy): 2.5% y/y (exp 2.3%, prior 2.4%) Core inflation slips below BOJ’s 2% target for first

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold got stuck in another consolidation as the bullish momentum remains weak amid conflicting signals. Yesterday, it looked like the third round of US-Iran talks went bad as we got reports of Iran rejecting US demands. The markets went into risk-off, eventually supporting gold prices. Later on, we got reports that the talks

Prior +2.3% HICP +2.5% vs +2.3% y/y expected Prior +2.4% The main thing to watch is core annual inflation and that is seen at 2.7%, a step up from the 2.6% reading in January. The trend for core prices is looking rather dicey for Spain as it is moving upwards since the middle of last

Prior +0.5% French Q4 GDP is confirmed at +0.2% q/q, reflecting slight growth in the final quarter of last year. This leads to overall GDP being 0.9% for the year 2025, which is slightly softer than the 1.1% growth in 2024. Looking at the overall breakdown for the year, domestic demand conditions held up well

Prior +0.3% HICP +1.1% vs +0.7% y/y expected Prior +0.4% The bigger jump in the annual estimates is largely tied to base effects, as electricity prices had fallen more sharply in February 2025. That being said, the monthly estimates also show a rebound in prices with headline inflation up 0.8% in February. That follows the

Netflix has opted not to increase its bid for Warner Bros., stepping away from the deal. Shares of Netflix surged as much as 13% in after-hours trading, while the company will receive a $2.8 billion breakup fee following its withdrawal. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq sold off yesterday after early reports suggested the third round of US–Iran talks had broken down, with Iran reportedly rejecting US demands. Later in the day, however, new headlines indicated that the discussions had actually made significant progress and that another round was scheduled for next week. This kind of back-and-forth

The other readings released around the same time (updated on the go): North Rhine Westphalia CPI +1.8% vs +2.0% y/y prior Saxony CPI +1.9% vs +2.1% y/y prior Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI +1.8% vs +2.1% y/y prior The early indications point to headline annual inflation softening by a bit more than the January readings. At the balance,

Summary: PBOC will cut FX risk reserve ratio to 0% from 20%, effective March 2 Move reverses a September 2022 tightening aimed at curbing yuan losses Lower ratio reduces cost of USD buying via forwards USD/CNH jumped to 6.8599 (+0.3%) after the announcement Seen as a step to slow recent yuan strength after sharp gains

Summary: PBOC cut FX risk reserve ratio to 0% from 20%, effective March 2 Move reduces cost of betting against yuan via forwards USD/CNY midpoint held at 6.9228, defying expectations for fresh lows USD/CNH rebounded as traders pared yuan-long positions Analysts see USD/CNY stabilising in 6.90–6.95 range China’s central bank has signalled that the rapid

Data only, I’ll have more to come on this, details and analysis, separately. Japan January: Retail Sales +1.8% y/y expected -0.4%, prior -0.9% Industrial Production +2.2% m.m expected 5.3%, prior -0.1% Manufacturers see: February output -0.5% m/m prior forecast -4.3% March output -2.6% m/m This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s central bank will cut the foreign-exchange risk reserve ratio for forward FX sales to 0% from 20%, effective March 2, 2026, aiming to enhance currency market development and support companies’ exchange-rate hedging needs. The PBOC said it will continue encouraging financial institutions to strengthen hedging services while maintaining the renminbi broadly stable at a

This is just the data, I’ll have more, details and analysis, to come on this separately. Tokyo February 2026 CPI y/y Headline 1.6% expected 1.4%, prior Excluding fresh food 1.8% expected 1.7%, prior 2.0%) Excluding Fresh Food & Energy 2.5% expected 2.3%, prior 2.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The GBPUSD dipped below its 200-hour moving average during the European session but rebounded into the US morning. That recovery, however, ran out of steam ahead of the session highs. When price rolled back below the 200-hour MA (1.3521) and then the 100-hour MA (1.35125), sellers reasserted control and downside momentum accelerated. The pair extended

The AUDUSD is one of the larger movers today, down -0.46%, pressured by a broader risk-off tone as US equities slide. Nvidia’s earnings failed to extend yesterday’s upside momentum, and that weighed on commodity-linked and higher-beta currencies like the Aussie. Technically, the pair also failed where it mattered most. The Asian session high stalled below

We can now see that our efforts to bring inflation down have been effective We continue to expect inflation to stabilise at our 2% target in the medium-term We therefore decided to keep key ECB interest rates unchanged at our monetary policy meeting earlier this month We will continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting

Bitcoin surged roughly 6% yesterday, but today the tone has shifted. The price is currently down about -1.75%, giving back a portion of those gains as sellers lean against key resistance. The turning point came right where it mattered. On the hourly chart, yesterday’s rally stalled at the February 16 high, a clear resistance level.

High-yield 3.790% WI level at the time of the auction 3.790% Tail 0.0 basis points vs 0.4 basis point six-month averages Bid to cover 2.50X vs 6 month average of 2.46X Dealers 10.4% versus 11.4% six-month average Directs 26% versus 26.0% six-month average Indirects 63.6% vs 62.6% six-month average This article was written by Greg

Nvidia put its best foot forward with a big earnings beat but it isn’t enough for the market. Shares were up around 1% in the pre-market but opened lower and are now down almost 5%. The drop is spreading beyond the company and the Nasdaq is down 1.7% and it’s now even hitting FX with

Japanese media with the news drop. I’ll have more to come on this separately. Under some pressure: The Japanese Yen sinks as PM Takaichi signals opposition to further BoJ rate hikes This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

It’s nice to wrap up the trading week with it being the final day of the month. And interestingly enough, did you realise that the March calendar is a repeat of February (only with the additional 3 days). In February trading, the dollar has been rather resilient after struggling towards the end of last year.

If you want to know how talks are going between Iran and the USA then you don’t need to look any further than the intraday WTI crude oil chart. It was lower earlier on some profit taking ahead of talks but since the talks ended, it’s been one-way traffic higher. Reports continue to highlight that

The problem with being all show is that eventually you have to deliver real results. Earlier today there was a Politico report about Howard Lutnick and how the vast majority of his $18 trillion in touted investment deals into the US is basically smoke-and-mirrors, AI investment, or a repackaging of things that were already announced.

Takata says Japan is near 2% inflation “mission accomplished,” backing further gradual BoJ normalisation. — In summary, BoJ Policy Board member Hajime Takata argues Japan is close to meeting the 2% price-stability goal, with the deflationary “norm” largely broken. He sees the global backdrop shifting in 2026 toward stronger growth as monetary and fiscal settings

The U.S. Treasury sold $70 billion of 5 year notes at a high yield of 3.615%: WI level at the time of the auction 3.608% Tail 0.7 basis points v 6 month average up 0.3 basis pointss Bid to cover 2.32X versus 6 month average of 2.36X Dealers 12.8% versus 6 month average of 10.1%

NVIDIA delivered a monster Q4, posting record revenue of $68.1 billion — comfortably ahead of the $66.2 billion consensus estimate — with earnings of $1.62 per share (non-GAAP). Revenue surged 73% year-over-year, driven almost entirely by the data center juggernaut, which pulled in $62.3 billion and now accounts for 91% of total sales. But the

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Silver pulled all the way back into a key swing level around the 92.00 handle as some renewed tariff uncertainty and the risk of a military escalation between US and Iran has kept the market supported. Nonetheless, the bullish momentum from the Friday’s US Supreme Court decision seems to have already waned given

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices stabilized after last week’s sharp surge, which was driven by fears of a possible military escalation over the weekend. Attention is now turning to the third round of US–Iran nuclear talks taking place in Geneva today. Based on the developments so far, the prospects for an agreement appear slim. In fact,

Reuters report that Toyota prepares potential $19bn share unwind in major governance reform signal. Summary: Toyota is preparing a potential ¥3 trillion (~$19bn) share sale via financial institutions to unwind cross-shareholdings, sources told Reuters. The plan could take place as early as 2026 but remains subject to change. Toyota may use buybacks to absorb shares;

Prior was 206K (revised to 208K) Four-week moving average 220.25K vs 219.50K last week Continuing claims 1.833M vs 1,858M expected Prior continuing claims 1.864M revised from 1.869M The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending February 14 were in Iowa (+377), Michigan (+105), Florida (+84), and Nevada (+1). The largest decreases were in

Prior -12.4 Economic confidence 98.3 vs 99.8 expected Prior 99.4; revised to 99.3 Industrial confidence -7.1 vs -6.1 expected Prior -6.8 Services confidence 5.0 vs 7.5 expected Prior 7.2 Slight delay in the release by the source. Euro area economic sentiment drops slightly in February, keeping below the long-term average score of 100 still. The

Takata warns of inflation overshoot, reinforcing expectations of further BOJ tightening and lifting the yen. Summary: BOJ board member Hajime Takata warned of inflation overshoot risks. Repeated call for gradual further rate hikes. Said Japan has effectively achieved the 2% inflation target. Flagged rising medium- and long-term inflation expectations. Remarks came after PM Sanae Takaichi

Bitcoin and Ether futures cool off after the rebound as traders watch key acceptance zones Bitcoin futures (BTC1!) and Ether futures (ETH1!) are both in a “pause after the push” phase. The daily charts still reflect a rebound attempt that is stalling under overhead supply, while the 4H footprint view adds an important layer: the

Sector Overview: Mixed Movements Across Key Sectors Today’s stock market heatmap reveals a mixed picture across sectors, with distinct movements shaping the day’s trading landscape. The technology sector demonstrates resilience, while semiconductors experience notable declines. Let’s delve into the details. 📈 Technology Sector: A Bright SpotThe technology sector shines brightly today. Microsoft (MSFT) gains 0.86%

The USDCAD is pushing higher after a move lower in the Asian Pacific session stalled ahead of this week’s low near 1.3649. Sellers had an opportunity to press the pair to new weekly lows but failed to generate follow-through. That inability to extend lower invited buyers back in. The bounce has now carried the price

Prior was -$9.68 (revised to -$5.27B) 14th consecutive quarter of current account deficits Trade in goods and services balance posted a $3.1 billion deficit in the fourth quarter vs $4.4 billion in Q3 Goods deficit $4.5B vs $9.5B prior Foreign investors acquired a record $33.6 billion of federal government bonds Canadian investors acquired $18.5 billion

To be fair, she could use better choice of words here if she wants to sound more assuring. But in all likelihood, it looks like she wants to maintain optionality in her decision. How typical of a central banker these days, eh? The key word in her answer that is baseline. As we all know,

The US dollar is kicking off the session mixed. EURUSD and GBPUSD are lower (firmer USD), while USDJPY is also lower (softer USD vs JPY). As we head toward the North American session and the end of the week, the focus shifts to whether these pairs can break out of tight ranges and establish clearer

The bar was already set incredibly high for Nvidia going into this week’s earnings call, as it has been for many quarters now. And once again, the chip giant defies concerns to the AI trade with a strong triple beat so to speak. All three of revenue, earnings, and guidance hit their market and then

Major US indices close higher for the 2nd consecutive day Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says will examine the impact of rate hikes so far Bitcoin Technicals: Bitcoin is up sharply today. What did the rally do to the technicals? Israeli press: There is a high chance of an attack on Iran Fed’s Musalem: Inflation

The S&P 500 remains supported by positive macro backdrop, but downside risks linger US futures hold caution ahead of the open later Silver retreats from a key level as focus turns to US-Iran talks and the NFP report Eurozone February final consumer confidence -12.2 vs -12.2 prelim ECB president Lagarde: My baseline is that I

The big story in the equities market came after the close yesterday, with Nvidia delivering a major beat in their earnings report across the board. That saw shares of the tech giant rose by over 3% for a brief period in after-hours trading before settling with more modest gains. In turn, broader market sentiment also

Does not think that the BOJ is behind the curve for now But want to ensure BOJ doesn’t fall behind the curve in addressing inflation risks Difficult to determine the desirable pace of rate hikes and also the terminal rate Pace of future rate hikes will depend on economic, price, market developments at the time

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar continues to bounce around potentially due to some uncertainty around tariffs after the US Supreme Court ruled against the previous levies. It’s pretty clear at this point that tariffs are here to stay as Trump reimposed them using different laws. Overall, not much has changed. The price action remains

Singapore MAS survey: 2026 GDP seen at 3.6%, April tightening odds rise China Two Sessions 2026: growth target, fiscal stance and 15th plan signals in focus Toyota plans $19bn share unwind in landmark governance reform move – Reuters Recap – BOJ hawk Takata flags inflation overshoot risk, yen strengthened on hike signals Bank of Korea

Israel’s Ynet reports that US strikes on Iran are increasingly likely. The report citing Israeli diplomatic sources estimates that the new Iranian proposals do not meet the American threshold conditions. One of the sources estimated there is a high chance the US will launch an attack. “It’s hard for us to see the Americans walking

BOJ governor Ueda came out today with a bold statement, at least by his standards, in saying that their upcoming policy meetings in March and April will be live. The timing of that remark says a lot as it comes after his meeting with prime minister Takaichi, as well as the report yesterday that Takaichi

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases that won’t change anything for the market. The focus today will likely be on the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva, which are seen as the last-ditch effort to prevent a conflict.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 320.5bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% in open market operations today. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 rebounded from the monthly lows as risk sentiment improved. There was no real catalyst for the move as the market continues to trade in a range amid uncertainty on the macro and geopolitical fronts. The short-term uncertainty caused by the US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs might have weighed on

There are just a couple to take note of on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold below. They are all for EUR/USD lined up in between the 1.1800 to 1.1825 level. Given the lack of key catalysts in the session ahead, the expiries could act as bookends for price action in European

The ANZ Business Outlook survey is a well-regarded monthly survey tracking the sentiment of hundreds of New Zealand businesses concerning the economy’s future. It measures confidence, hiring, investment, and inflation expectations, with findings recently showing, for instance, a 30-year high in December 2025. From the Reserve Bank of Australia we get its ‘Bulletin’. The Reserve

Summary: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says markets are misjudging AI’s impact on software firms. Huang argues AI will enhance, not replace, companies like ServiceNow. Q4 revenue surged 73% y/y to $68.13bn, beating estimates. Q1 guidance of $78bn ±2% significantly topped expectations. Strong outlook counters concerns of an AI hardware spending bubble Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang

This is ‘just the data’ post. Australian Private Capital Expenditure Q4 2025 +0.4% q/q expected 0%, prior +6.4% CapExp for 2025-26, estimate 5 is AUD199.3bn prior 191.3bn Plant Machinery CapEx -1.7% q.q prior +11.5% Building CapExp +2.3% q/q prior +2.1% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

BOK’s new dot plot reinforces a 2.50% hold bias, with only a small minority pricing a cut. Summary: More from the Bank of Korea’s Feb 26 decision: the hold at 2.50% was unanimous. The new six-month “dot plot” shows the board’s centre of gravity is a prolonged hold. 16 of 21 dots sit at 2.50%,

China’s Two Sessions (4–11 March) is shaping up as a “targets + 15th plan signalling” event, more about direction and policy bias than a single mega-stimulus headline. Summary: China’s “Two Sessions” will open in Beijing on 4 March (CPPCC) and 5 March 2026 (NPC), with the headline policy statement coming via the Government Work Report

BOK holds at 2.50% and unveils Fed-style dot plot as policy pause deepens. Summary: Bank of Korea held its benchmark rate at 2.50%, as expected. Decision unanimous among seven-member board. 2026 GDP forecast at 2.0%; 2027 growth seen at 1.8%. 2025 inflation forecast at 2.2%; 2027 inflation at 2.0%. BOK introduces quarterly “dot plot”-style forward

With gold now angling for a renewed push above $5,200, ANZ continues to argue for a more bullish rhetoric for the precious metal amid recent developments. Most of the overarching themes underpinning gold have been the same since last year, but ANZ is adding one more to the list. That being a “less crowded” investor

IMF sees solid US growth but warns rising deficits and debt heighten vulnerabilities. Summary: IMF completes US Article IV review 2026 growth seen at 2.4% Employment growth to slow structurally Unemployment near 4% in 2026–27 Core PCE at 2% by early 2027 Deficits seen at 7–8% of GDP Debt projected at 140% of GDP by

Ueda keeps tightening bias intact, flags further hikes if outlook firms. Summary: Ueda reiterates conditional tightening bias Rates to rise if outlook materialises Underlying inflation still below 2% Policy aimed at preventing overshoot BoJ says not “behind the curve” Inflation expected to re-accelerate No change to January projections Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reinforced

Summary: Q1 revenue guidance $76.44B–$79.56B vs $72.78B est Q4 revenue $68.13B, +73% y/y, beat vs $65.91B Data centre revenue $62.3B, +75% y/y, ahead of estimates Gaming revenue $3.7B, below consensus Gross margin 75.2%, remains exceptionally strong Adjusted operating income $46.11B, +81% y/y Free cash flow $34.9B vs $15.5B y/y FY27 tax rate seen 17%–19% Nvidia

IMF’s Georgieva says tariffs lifted goods inflation, backs gradual Fed easing and deficit action. Summary: Goods inflation partly tariff-driven Fed funds at 3.25%–3.5% consistent with full employment US debt requires determined fiscal action IMF shares concern on trade deficits Current account deficit “too big” No formal view yet on tariff court ruling Court implications to

Confidence remains high, but rising cost and wage pressures keep inflation risks alive. Summary: Business confidence fell 5 points to 59.2 but remains elevated. Own-activity outlook improved slightly to 52.6. Pricing intentions eased marginally but remain high at 53%. Cost expectations rose to 79.4% — highest since mid-2023. Wage expectations lifted to 3.01%, highest since

Economists upgrade Singapore’s 2026 growth outlook and are increasingly split on whether the MAS will tighten policy at its April 2026 review. Summary: Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) Q1 survey (released 25 February 2026) shows economists lift 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.6% (prev. 2.3%). Nearly 47.4% now expect a policy tightening at the April

Ueda keeps March and April rate-hike window open, says wage gains could speed target timing. Earlier here, recapping now ICYMI. Summary: Ueda keeps tightening bias intact March and April meetings live Target timing could be brought forward Strong wage talks key upside risk No need to wait for April Tankan BOJ says not behind curve

Australian business investment edges higher as renewables drive capex upgrade. Summary: Q4 private capex +0.4% q/q (0% exp), prior +6.4 (data post here) Annual growth accelerated to +7.8% y/y. Buildings & structures +2.3%; equipment -1.7%. Non-mining investment at record high in real terms. 2025/26 capex estimate lifted to A$199.3bn (+4.3% revision). First 2026/27 estimate A$158.4bn

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

The price of Bitcoin is staging an aggressive rebound today after sliding to its lowest level since February 6 just yesterday. The low reached $62,525, marking a key test of channel support. Since then, buyers have stepped in decisively. Bitcoin is currently higher by roughly $5,000, a gain of 7.8% on the day. That is