FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 gave back most of the gains accumulated since Tuesday when Trump said that he would be open to end the war with Iran without the Strait of Hormuz opening condition. Later that day we also had the Iranian President saying that they were ready to end the war but wanted

The weekly initial and continuing claims shows: Initial jobless claims 202K vs 212K estimate. Prior week revised to 211K from 210K 4 week moving average of initial jobless claims 207.75K versus 210.75K last week. Continuing claims 1.841M vs 1.839M estimate. 4 week moving average of continuing claims 1.839M vs 1.846M last week. The dominant theme

US-based employers announced 60,602 job cuts in March, some 25% higher than what was seen in February. That being said, it is down roughly 78% from the 275,240 cuts announced during the same month last year. But as you can remember, that owed much to Trump and Elon Musk’s DOGE initiative at the time. “Removing

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 500mn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations. Another tiny injection. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TMGM today announced its role as an emergency contribution supporter for UNICEF Australia, providing a donation to support urgent humanitarian needs in the Gaza Strip. This contribution is a key element of TMGM’s global Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) strategy, aiming to provide substantial assistance to children affected by the ongoing conflict. Addressing a Critical Crisis

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has released an open letter to the American people, questioning whether Washington is truly putting “America First” or merely acting as a “proxy for Israel” willing to fight “to the last American soldier.” In the Wednesday message, which traces the roots of US-Iran tensions back to the 1953 coup while condemning

Tsunami threat issued: M 7.8 119 km WNW of Ternate, Indonesia Depth 10.0 km Impacts could extend to shores of Indonesia, Philippines and Malaysia This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

The market is pricing in hope for the end of the war and the blockade of Hormuz and that led to a second day of gains for equities. Early in the day, it looked like the same kind of powerful strength that we saw yesterday but the enthusiasm faded later in the day Closing changes:

The main focal point today will, of course, be Trump speaking: Trump will say the Iran war is “winding down” in address, will criticize NATO There is still US troop movement to the Middle East so regardless of what he says he might sneak in a ground assault some time over the weekend. This article

South Korea scrambles for oil supply as Hormuz disruption forces sourcing shift. Summary: South Korea secures ~50m barrels of alternative oil for April Hormuz disruption cuts access to Middle East crude flows Government taps multiple suppliers and manages demand Shortfall remains versus normal import levels Australia LNG curbs seen as limited impact South Korea has

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 level. Well, the dollar sentiment has shifted around as US president Trump didn’t offer much of anything new in his address towards the Iran situation earlier. He reaffirmed that it will

Remarks here, distilled from a long rambling speech. Trump address: Going to hit Iran very hard over the next 2-3weeks Market movement over the previous 2 days were hinged on an announcement of him pulling out. Not yet though. Oil popped a little: Gold, AUD down … markets a risk off response, but not an

South Korea secures alternative oil as Hormuz disruption hits supplies AUD, NZD fall as oil surge and ongoing war risks lift stagflation fears PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8880 (vs. estimate at 6.8764) Trump offers no new Iran signals; markets turn cautious after speech Trump spoke without adding new info, still

Exports surged while imports fell very sharply: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump speaking, says: Iran’s navy is gone Air Force is in ruins Most of Iran’s leaders are dead Situation has been ongoing for 47 years, too long Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism Getting close to finishing the job Allies should take the lead in protecting Hormuz, US will help When conflict is over

AUD and NZD slide as oil shock fuels stagflation fears and rate hike expectations. Summary: AUD and NZD fall as oil surge and war risks weigh on growth outlook Hormuz disruption fuels stagflation concerns across global markets Trump signals conflict may end but keeps near-term military pressure Markets price higher inflation and further RBA tightening

Hedge funds hit by worst drawdown in years as volatility forces de-risking. Summary: Hedge funds suffer worst monthly drawdown since January 2022 Fundamental long/short strategies hit hardest across all regions Asia-focused funds lead losses, followed by Europe and US Volatility from Iran war and cross-asset moves drove de-risking Systematic strategies outperform as discretionary funds struggle

This chatter doing the rounds: Unconfirmed reports (Fautuks Network on twitter / X being cited) citing Fox News suggest Trump may signal the possible use of ground troops to secure Iranian uranium in an upcoming speech, a scenario analysts say would involve complex and high-risk operations. *** Update: Faytuks Network deletes earlier post on this.

Trump yesterday announced that he will deliver a speech at 9 pm today. There have been hints and leaks about it all day and now we have another one from Politico that says: Trump will declare the war is “winding down” He’s expected to claim that all military objectives have been met He intends to

The FT reports that Trump threatened to stop weapons for Ukraine unless Europe joined a Hormuz coalition to break the blockade. That’s using one geopolitical crisis as a bargaining chip in another — and evidently it worked. The Europeans had been saying the strait situation was “not our war,” but after Trump went — reportedly

Yesterday, Pres Trump posted on Truth Social: Today, the French Navy Chief is speaking and saying: Number of Chinese vessels going through the Strait of Hormuz not enough to restore normal traffic flows China will probably need to engage more directly in the debate and show its impatience on closure of Strait of Hormuz. France’s

Prior month 0.0% revised from +0.1% Details Sales: $1.9746T in January; +0.3% m/m (vs Dec 2025), +4.5% y/y Inventories: $2.6750T; -0.1% m/m vs 0.1 estimate, +1.0% y/y Inventories/Sales Ratio: 1.35, down from 1.40 in Jan 2025 At its core, the Census Business Inventories report is a pulse check on demand vs. supply across the U.S.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices have come under some pressure yesterday after Trump basically confirmed the WSJ report in a Truth Social post that he would be open to end the war with Iran without the Strait of Hormuz opening condition. The losses extended further later in the day when the Iranian President said that they

The broader market is optimistic about a resolution in Hormuz and Iran despite mediocre and mixed signals from Washington and Tehran. The S&P 500 is up 1.2% in a continued rally from yesterday and it’s tough to hang it on any headline. Trump has repeatedly indicate that the US is ready to declare ‘mission accomplished’

Prior 47.4 Swiss manufacturing activity was surprisingly more robust in March, despite the impact of the Middle East conflict already starting to show up. Of note, production levels returned to expansion territory with it rising by 3.6 points to 50.6 in March. Meanwhile, the manufacturing orderbook also rose strongly by 7.3 points to 54.2 on

Prior 50.1 It’s just a minor downgrade to the final estimate as France’s manufacturing sector continues to stagnate in light of the Middle East conflict. The two biggest things to note are that suppliers’ delivery times and input cost inflation both surged significantly on the month. The former lengthened to its greatest degree since January

The AUDUSD moved higher with the risk-on flows yesterday. However, the price did run into some topside resistance that stalled the pair. IN the post and video, I referenced that area: …the real test was just ahead. The price remains below a key swing area between 0.6896 and 0.69088 – a prior support zone that

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate from their model has dipped to 1.9% from 2.0%. In their own words: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2026 is 1.9 percent on April 1, down from 2.0 percent on March 23. After this morning’s retail sales

If we have prolonged high energy prices and supply disruption, it will strain many countries quite seriously We will have to act if appropriate, but tackling the source of the energy price shock is most important I’m very clear we need to return inflation to target in a way that causes the least damage to

Prior was 50.9 Key findings: Cost pressures intensify in March alongside notable supply chain delays Output and new orders buoyed as customers react to disruption Business expectations retreat sharply to four month low Comment: Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The immediate impacts of the war in the Middle East on

The White House is saying that Pres. Trump is to reiterate 2 – 3 week timetable for the end of the Iran operations. The president is to address the nation at 9 PM ET. Course how all this ends is anyone’s guess. Israel if it had it’s way would want it to go on until

War shocks have increased risks to economy and inflation He can see scenarios of both hiking and cutting rates Mon pol currently at the low end of neutral (I think he means top of neutral range) Supply shocks carry greater inflation risks in current environment Tariffs are still inflation driver but should wane Says he’s

Prior was 51.0 This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Bank of England Governor Bailey struck a cautious tone, emphasizing risks around inflation, financial stability, and growth, while signaling the need to stay flexible on policy as conditions evolve. We will have to act if appropriate, but tackling source of energy price shock is most important If high energy prices and supply disruptions persist, it

more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Reuters is citing a source briefed on the matter: The VP has been talking to ‘intermediaries’ about the Iran conflict as recently as Tuesday Trump directed Vance to communicate privately that he is open to a ceasefire as long as certain US demands met including reopening Hormuz Vance delivered a ‘stern’ message that Trump was

Trump spoke with Reuters in an interview: Does not care about nuclear material, will watch via satellite Will express ‘my disgust’ with NATO in speech and says he is absolutely considering withdrawing Iran will not have a nuclear weapon, nor do they want one We have some more targets left. If we have to, we

This crisis is worse than the two in the 1970s and Russia-related in 2022 put together Some 40 key energy assets have been damaged in the Middle East More than 12 million bpd of oil supply has been lost so far to the Middle East crisis The oil loss in April is expected to be

Sector Overview 📈 Technology & Semiconductors: The technology sector, especially semiconductors, led today’s market rally. Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) showed brisk gains of 1.03% and 3.65%, respectively. Intel (INTC) stood out with an impressive rise of 8.59%, bolstering investor confidence in the semiconductor space. 📉 Energy Sector: Struggling to keep up, the

Prior was +6926K Gasoline -586K vs -1876K exp Distillates -2111K vs -586K exp Refinery utilization -0.8% vs +1.5% exp The API data from late yesterday: Crude +10263K Gasoline -3209K Distillates -1040K The big build is negative for oil and it’s the second one in a row.That’s hard to believe given what’s happening in the Middle

It’s an up day! The major stock indices moved sharply to the upside in hopes that the into the Iranian war will be over sooner rather than later. That is still open for debate, but with the major indices down sharply for the month, the market was in the mood to push to the upside.

Prior 51.7 Key findings: Input price inflation hits 41-month high Suppliers’ delivery times lengthen to greatest extent since mid-2022 Production falls for first time in six months as input price inflation spikes and supply chain stress grows Comment: Rob Dobson, Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “UK manufacturing output contracted for the first time in

The broader S&P and NASDAQ indices are extending higher today, building on yesterday’s upside momentum that followed the gap open off Friday’s cycle low into the close. The recovery rally has now pushed both indices into a key technical crossroads—testing their respective falling 100-hour moving averages. The bulls and bears are fighting at the key

Prior was 52.5 Prices paid 78.3 vs 73.0 expected (Prior was 70.5) Employment 48.7 vs 48.8 prior New orders 53.5 vs 55.8 prior This prices paid number is worrisome but not surprising. US manufacturing spent most of 2025 in contraction. The ISM PMI slipped to 47.9 in December 2025, its lowest level since October 2024

The USDCAD extended above a key swing area between 1.3924 and 1.3937 (see post yesterday), pushing toward the next upside target zone between 1.3971 and 1.3994. The rally reached a high of 1.3966—just short of that next resistance band—before stalling and rotating back to the downside. By the close, the price had fallen back below

Trump’s latest on Truth Social: Iran’s New Regime President, much less Radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE! We will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to

The dollar is dropping in European morning trade as we see risk trades shoot up on the session. S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% with the high earlier seeing gains of 0.8% on the day. In Europe itself, major indices are posting over 2% gains in following up the positive momentum from Wall Street yesterday.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar weakened across the board yesterday after Trump basically confirmed the WSJ report in a Truth Social post that he would be open to end the war with Iran without the Strait of Hormuz opening condition. This turned the sentiment around in the markets and the positive mood improved further

Prior was 52.4 Today’s March release showed the PMI rising to 52.3 from 51.6 in February, marking the eighth consecutive month above the 50.0 threshold and pointing to a moderate and accelerating pace of expansion. Both output and new orders posted solid gains, supported in part by precautionary safety stock building as firms sought to

Prior was -0.2% (revised to -0.1%) Details: Ex-autos +0.5% vs 0.3% expected Prior ex autos 0.0% Ex autos and gas +0.4% vs 0.3% prior (revised to +0.2%) Control group +0.5% vs +0.3% expected Prior control +0.3% (revised to +0.2%) Retail sales y/y +3.7% vs +3.2% prior It’s worth noting that the official Census Bureau advance

The USDCHF has turned sharply lower after failing at a key topside resistance target defined by the upper channel trendline and prior highs from January 15 near 0.8041. That rejection shifted momentum, with the pair rotating back to the downside. In the process, the price has broken back below the 200-day moving average at 0.79438,

Summary: Korea Exchange triggered a sidecar halt after KOSPI futures surged 5% Program trading paused for 5 minutes to cool rapid market moves Move follows strong upside momentum from Wall Street rally Sidecar acts as a temporary circuit breaker for derivatives-driven volatility Highlights risk of momentum-driven dislocations in fast-moving markets South Korea’s stock exchange briefly

In the earlier post and video on the USDCHF, I spoke to the battle going on between the double tops a 0.8012 and the swing area between 0.79778 and 0.7989. The price did hold support near the high of the swing area – keeping the buyers in control. In the prior post, I wrote: A

There is perhaps just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level. The dollar fell off yesterday amid a marked improvement in the risk mood, with talks of US president Trump looking to wrap up the war in Iran and declaring “victory”

Prior 50.6 Key findings: Softer expansions in output and new orders Sharp spike in cost inflation fails to deter growth in purchasing and stocks Supply chains conditions decline at strongest rate since October 2022 Comment: Eleanor Dennison, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “The impact of war in the Middle East is being felt

Rising oil prices put upwards pressure on inflation That also weighs on growth, creating a stagflationary trend How to deal with stagflation situation is a hard question for monetary policy In general, policymakers can deal with such a situation with a mix of fiscal and monetary policy But it is hard to control the economy

It is a bit of a tricky one as one can argue that investors were feeling more optimistic about the US-Iran conflict. But at the same time, I don’t want to say it but month-end and quarter-end shenanigans might also be a factor in exacerbating the moves from overnight trading. The S&P 500 clocked in

Japan’s Tankan shows improving business sentiment, with large manufacturers at their strongest since 2021, but a softer outlook and falling profit expectations signal growing caution ahead. Summary: Japan Tankan shows large manufacturers sentiment at +17 (vs +16 expected) Marks 4th straight quarterly improvement, highest since Dec 2021 Non-manufacturers strong at +36, beating expectations Outlook softens:

Market signals from insurance, shipping flows and physical oil pricing point to ongoing disruption in Hormuz, despite conflicting narratives. Mid-April looms as a key turning point as temporary supply supports begin to expire. Summary: Headline noise rising, but real signals sit in physical markets Hormuz insurance costs surge to 3.5–10% vs ~0.25% pre-war Shipping volumes

Prior 50.8 It’s a slight upwards nudge to the initial estimate and a minor improvement in manufacturing activity compared to February. That largely thanks to Germany. That saw production and order growth hold steadier in March but there are some key issues to be concerned about. The Middle East conflict is stirring up supply-side disruption

OpenAI’s record $122 billion raise boosts its war chest, widens investor access and sharpens its IPO-era push toward enterprise AI and coding tools. Circa $852 billion valuation. Summary: OpenAI has completed a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation, topping the already huge $110 billion financing it announced on February 27. The

4 Key market signals show deep Hormuz disruption despite mixed MSM headlines China PMI slows to 50.8 as cost pressures hit two-year high UAE push to reopen Hormuz raises prospect of U.S.-Gulf coalition. What’s next to come? PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.9025, CNY strongest since 25 March UAE pushes to reopen Hormuz

Prior 50.0 More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The UAE is pushing for military action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, marking a major strategic shift and raising the risk of broader regional escalation as Iran warns of further retaliation. Wall Street Journal (gated) with the report. Summary: UAE is pushing to reopen Strait of Hormuz by force, lobbying for UN-backed coalition Would

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Trump doubles down on rapid Iran exit timeline, signalling shift to mission-complete stance. Summary: Trump reiterates U.S. could end Iran war within 2–3 weeks, signalling accelerated exit timeline Says no deal required with Tehran for withdrawal, marking shift from negotiation-dependent framing Condition for exit: Iran’s nuclear capability must be effectively neutralised Comments reinforce earlier signals

This via Wall Street Journal info. How to turn a $4 bn company into $39 mn. Yikes. Summary: Allbirds has agreed to sell most of its business for $39 million, marking a dramatic collapse from its ~$4 billion peak valuation The deal transfers IP, assets and liabilities to American Exchange Group, subject to shareholder approval

Adding some info on the Tankan to the earlier post, via Reuters recap. Summary: Japan Tankan shows large manufacturers at +17 (vs +16 expected), continuing improvement Large non-manufacturers strong at +36 (vs +33 expected) Firms expect conditions to worsen over next three months Inflation expectations rise to record highs (2.6% 1yr, 2.5% 3–5yr) Middle East/Iran

Australia’s Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the tax office will offer temporary relief to businesses impacted by the Iran war, including payment deferrals and support measures. Small businesses will gain easier access to credit, with options such as loan restructuring and emergency increases to credit limits to help manage cash flow pressures. This article was written

RatingDog / S&P Global China manufacturing PMI for March 2026. Yesterday we had the official PMIs. Summary: China manufacturing PMI at 50.8 (prev. 52.1), still in expansion for 4th straight month Growth slows but remains second-strongest in six months Output, new orders and employment all continue to rise Input price inflation jumps to highest since

Japan’s manufacturing sector remains in expansion but is losing momentum as cost pressures rise and confidence weakens, with the Middle East conflict feeding through into inflation and uncertainty. Summary: Japan manufacturing PMI eased to 51.6 (prev. 53.0), still in expansion Growth slowed but remains second-strongest since mid-2022 New orders, output and employment all expanded at

Australia’s manufacturing sector returned to contraction in March as demand weakened and cost pressures surged. Middle East-related supply disruptions and rising input costs weighed on activity, while confidence deteriorated sharply. Summary: Australian manufacturing PMI fell back into contraction at 49.8 (prev. 51.0) in March New orders declined for the first time in five months, signalling

Axios reports that Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar met today in Beijing with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. At the end of the meeting they published a joint peace initiative that includes a five-point plan halting the use of force and opening the Strait of Hormuz. There are strong hints the US isn’t opposed but

Gold is at the highs of the day, up $161 to $4670. The 3.5% really is the largest since Feb 5 and brings gold back to March 19 levels. The March 17-22 period saw four days of heavy selling in gold that led to a $900 decline from peak to trough. Since then it has

The EURUSD is seeing a sharp bounce higher, helped by a more supportive macro backdrop. Stocks are moving higher, yields are lower on the day, and oil has come off its highs, all of which are weighing on the USD and giving the pair a lift. From a technical perspective, the move higher has some

Sector Overview: Tech Takes the Lead The stock market is buzzing with activity today, driven by a strong performance in the technology sector. Standout performers include Microsoft (MSFT) at +1.76% and Nvidia (NVDA) soaring by an impressive 3.49%. The semiconductor industry, with AVGO at +3.35% and Intel (INTC) at +3.39%, is particularly vibrant, capturing investor

The USDJPY has rotated lower after failing above the 160.00 level, a key psychological and technical barrier. Recall, the pair broke above that level on Friday, reaching a high of 160.455, but the breakout lacked follow-through. Yesterday, the price moved lower and tested an upward sloping trendline, where buyers stepped in and pushed the pair

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard named 18 companies for retaliation after strikes against its companies: Cisco HP Intel Oracle Microsoft Apple Google Meta IBM DEL Palantir Nvidia JP Morgan Tesla GE Spire Solution G42 Boeing It’s not clear if this is a warning about striking its companies or something else but Iran warned employees and civilians within

Trump is posting about ending the war and leaving the Strait of Hormuz for those impacted by the the closure to figure it out. Trying to solve problems, by creating problems is a theme lately, but we may be entering the blame game phase now. Markets are leaning into the optimism—for now. U.S. equities are

The GBPUSD initially rode the wave of dollar selling into the U.S. session, pushing higher as broader USD weakness helped lift the pair. However, that momentum faded quickly, and buying interest dried up, leading to a reversal. The pair has since rotated back toward unchanged on the day, currently trading near 1.3180 after reaching a

Other nations can reopen the Strait Asked about reopening the Strait said “I do not think about it, to be honest” and that his sole goal was nuclear weapon More work to do in Iran war US doesn’t have to be in Iran much longer Here is the article in the New York Post. “We’re

Fed’s Williams says energy price outlook is driven by market pricing, expecting impact on headline not core inflation. He reiterates a solid economic baseline and a data-dependent stance, reinforcing no urgency for policy changes. Summary: Williams says energy outlook tied closely to market pricing expectations Expects energy shock to lift headline inflation, not core (for

Iran (President Pezeshkian – comments are unconfirmed): Says Iran seeks no war but is prepared to end it with guarantees against further attacks Accusations against US/Israel: Calls military actions unprecedented crimes and violations of international law Claims Iran engaged in good-faith talks before being attacked Regional criticism: Says countries hosting U.S. bases failed to prevent

This reinforces a higher-for-longer bias in the near term. The Fed is signalling tolerance for energy-driven inflation spikes but remains wary of second-round effects. For markets, that keeps rate cuts uncertain and timing pushed out, particularly if oil remains elevated. USD support should persist on policy divergence, while front-end yields stay sensitive to inflation expectations

Prior 1k Unemployment rate 6.3% vs 6.3% expected Prior 6.3% German unemployment remains unchanged in March with the jobless rate keeping steady on the month as well. The jobless figure overall remains the same as it was in February at 2.977 million. Well, this at least reaffirms the labour market has been holding up in

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar remains supported across the board amid the US-Iran war and triple digit oil prices. We are having a pullback today after WSJ reported that Trump would be open to end the war without pushing for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. That would be great news for the

Fed’s Williams speaking: Tariffs and Iran war will push headline inflation higher Gold traders are utilizing retracement and MA levels on the daily and the hourly charts Crude oil futures settles at $102.88 Israel proposes to Trump to strike Iran’s energy to accelerate regime change – report ECB’s Stournaras: ECB would react to a 2nd

The buyers in the major stock indices are stepping in after yesterday’s cycle lows and new lows for the year, sparking a relief rally. The bounce is notable, but let’s be clear—it’s still early, and there is work to do before buyers can claim meaningful control on the upside. From a technical perspective, this move

This keeps geopolitical risk premia elevated in oil. Even isolated incidents reinforce the vulnerability of Hormuz-linked shipping. Markets will watch for confirmation of attribution and whether attacks become more frequent or coordinated. Summary: UKMTO reports tanker struck by unknown projectile near Dubai Incident occurred ~31 nautical miles northwest of Dubai Fire reported onboard after impact

Prior was 91.2 prior (revised to 91.0) Details: Present situation 123.3 vs 120.0 prior Expectations 70.9 vs 72.0 prior Jobs plentiful27.3% vs 26.7% prior Jobs hard to get 21.5% vs 21.0% prior Respondents under 35 remain the most optimistic and those 55 and over the least. Republicans remained the most optimistic, while confidence was substantially

Prior month 6.946 million revised up to 7.240 million JOLTs job openings for February 6.882M vs 6.918M estimate Hires 4.849M vs 5.347M last month Separations 4.971M versus 5.144M last month Quits 2.974M vs 3.137M last month Layoffs and discharges 1.721M vs 1.660M last month. The JOLTs job openings fell sharply from 7.240M last month to

FX market still has not grasped full impact of energy shock – Goldman Sachs EURUSD keeps the bearish bias intact amid the US-Iran war; Focus stays on negotiations European stocks keep the calm today but set to cap one of the worst months in recent years Eurozone headline inflation picks up in March as energy

Prior -0.9%; revised to -1.1% And once again, German retail sales underwhelms on expectations and this time it is being made to look worse than previous times. For one, it comes alongside a negative revision to the January figure. But more importantly, it paints a negative backdrop in the month before we even see the

German import prices for the month of February showed a 0.3% increase compared to the previous month. But when benchmarked against the same month a year ago, import prices were seen down 2.3%. The latter figure is the same for January and also December last year. The main drag for the year-on-year decline in import

Goldman Sachs is noting that even if the US-Iran conflict were to end soon, there will be lasting impact from the surge in energy prices on markets. And that is something that perhaps currency traders have not quite fully grasped just yet. For some context, the firm is arguing that the latest jump in energy

Trump on Truth Social: All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed

US stock markets are up big today. I laid out the signs of the emerging US strategy lately and it’s something they’ve been tip-toeing towards since the war started. It’s basically a cut-and-run strategy where they blow everything up in Iran and then leave the rest of the world with the job of the hard

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 32.5bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump is reportedly open to ending the Iran war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, signalling a shift in priorities, though continued U.S. troop build-up suggests mixed messaging and ongoing risks to global energy flows. Wall Street Journal has the article, though (see below) I am wondering ifs its misdirection given the surge in US

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold has entered a consolidation phase as the bearish momentum eased somewhat. The fundamentals haven’t changed at all as the US-Iran war is still ongoing and the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is keeping oil prices around triple digit levels. This should keep the bearish bias intact for now. There has been

There are a couple of important data points coming up; Tokyo CPI and China’s official PMIs. On the central bank front we have the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia March meeting. That meeting produced a back-to back rate hike (following the February hike). Tokyo CPI Tokyo inflation data is closely watched by markets

ECB’s baseline projection could be already too optimistic Interest rates will probably rise in the coming quarters if energy prices stay high for too long ECB policymaker, Madis Müller, suggests that the central bank’s current economic projections may be already too optimistic, warning that rate hikes will probably come in the coming quarters if energy

Prior was +0.2% Q4 GDP was -0.6% Goods-producing industries expanded by 0.2% for the second month in a row Services-producing industries were essentially unchanged in January 9 of the 20 industrial sectors recorded growth in January. Canada’s economy closed out 2025 on shaky ground, and today’s January monthly GDP release arrives at a moment of

The price of gold, on the daily chart, saw a sharp correction after peaking at an all-time high at the end of January. The selloff took the price down to a low near $4,395 in early February before staging a strong rebound into the March 2 high at $5,416. However, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, including

The preliminary CPI report for March sees headline annual inflation come in at 2.5%, just a touch softer than the 2.6% estimate. Still, it represents a notable bump to the 1.9% reading in February last month. The main cause for the jump is higher energy prices, as a result of the US-Iran conflict. Of note,

Prior +0.9% HICP +1.9% vs +1.9% y/y expected Prior +1.1% The headline estimate is the highest since August 2024 as French inflation picks up amid higher energy prices as a result of the US-Iran conflict. The monthly reading shows that consumer prices were up 0.9%, the steepest jump since February 2024. The breakdown shows that

Major US stock indices closed mostly lower with the Dow the exception. Looking at the closing levels: Dow rose 49.50 points or 0.11% have 45216.14 S&P index fell -25.13 points or -0.39% at 6343.72 NASDAQ index fell -153.72 points or -0.73% at 20794.64. Russell 2000 fell -35.68 points or -1.46% at 2414.00 Looking at the

Prior +0.1% GDP +1.0% vs +1.0% y/y prelim Prior +1.2% No changes to the initial estimates as the UK economy squeezes out marginal growth in the final quarter of last year. In output terms, growth in the latest quarter was driven by an increase of 1.2% in production, while the construction sector fell by 2.1%

Summary: Global equities saw largest net selling since April 2025 Marks sixth consecutive week of equity outflows Selling heavily skewed toward short positions (5.6:1 vs longs) North America and Europe led selling in dollar terms Tech, industrials and healthcare hardest hit Asia saw sharp divergence between EM and DM flows European short exposure hits 10-year

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq is finding some footing today as WSJ reported that Trump would be open to end the war without pushing for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. That would be great news for the markets as the Iranians will likely reopen the Strait as soon as the US forces withdraw. We

The ministry confirms that three Chinese ships have recently sailed through the Strait of Hormuz, adding that “we would like to express our gratitude for the assistance provided by all parties concerned”. They didn’t go so far to name which ships they are referring to but recent reports suggest that it is likely they are

What a difference a month makes. European equities were looking poised to keep up the good momentum since the summer last year but that trajectory has completely changed now amid the US-Iran war. The developments in the Middle East has flipped the script in Europe, with surging energy prices being the main issue. European gas

Still ahead today, RBA March meeting minutes: Economic and event calendar in Asia Tuesday, March 31, 2026: Tokyo CPI, China PMIs, RBA Summary: RBA to ban card surcharges on eftpos, Mastercard and Visa networks Changes take effect October 1, 2026; foreign card caps from April 2027 Interchange fee caps to lower costs for businesses Total

Summary: Tokyo CPI slowed to its weakest pace in four years in March Headline inflation eased to 1.4% (prev. 1.5%) Core CPI (ex-fresh food) slowed to 1.7% (exp. 1.8%) Core-core inflation (ex-food, energy) eased to 2.3% (prev. 2.5%) Government subsidies continue to suppress price pressures Underlying inflation still above 2%, but momentum cooling Inflation in

Prior +0.3% UK house prices unexpectedly rose in March, with the jump being quite a big one at that. The monthly increase in house prices is the most since December 2024. Typically, there is a bit of a “spring bounce” in the market. That being said, it could be a case of home buyers rushing

Global stocks see biggest selling in a year. Hedge funds ramp shorts (Goldman Sachs data) China factory activity hits 1-year high as PMIs return to expansion China March official PMIs: Manufacturing 50.4 (exp 50) Non-manufacturing 50.1 (exp 49.9) Tokyo inflation cools further but underlying price pressures remain intact PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at

Crude oil futures settle at $102.88. That is up $3.24 or 3.25%. The close above $100 is the 1st since July 2020 and the highest close since July 11, 2011. Crude oil today is continuing to be driven by escalating geopolitical risk tied to the Iran conflict and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz. Rising

Summary: Netanyahu says Israel has weakened Iran’s missile capabilities and destroyed weapons factories Claims strikes have significantly degraded Iran’s military-industrial base Messaging reinforces narrative of operational success in ongoing campaign Focus remains on dismantling missile production and supply chains Comments align with broader push to curb Iran’s long-range strike capacity Signals continued military pressure rather

This reframes gold as less reliable in acute risk-off events, particularly where USD strength dominates. Near term, gold may remain volatile and more correlated with broader risk sentiment. Longer term, central bank demand and de-dollarisation still provide structural support, but positioning matters more than macro alone. Summary: HSBC says gold’s recent price action has defied

This leans mildly hawkish-neutral. Williams is reinforcing no urgency to cut, with resilience and strong household balance sheets offsetting uncertainty. AI as a growth pillar adds to the “soft landing” narrative. Rates likely stay on hold longer, supporting USD and keeping front-end yields elevated. Summary: Williams reiterates policy is “in the right place” amid high

The NASDAQ index continues to trend lower, extending its decline with the price now down about 1% on the day at 20,737. The selling pressure remains persistent, with buyers unable to generate much of a meaningful rebound, keeping the near-term bias tilted to the downside. From a technical perspective, the index is now closing in

Tech stocks mixed: Microsoft climbs, semiconductors stumble 📊 Sector Overview Technology Sector: A dynamic session in technology saw Microsoft (MSFT) rise by 1.62%, showing strength in the software-infrastructure space, while the semiconductor industry struggled, with Micron (MU) down 4.38% and Intel (INTC) dropping 1.81%. Consumer Cyclical:Amazon (AMZN) rallied by 1.08%, buoying the internet retail space,

The Nasdaq index is chopping up and down during the Powell speech, reflecting indecision after last week’s sharp selloff. The low for the day reached 20891.96, briefly breaking below a key swing area between 20902.48 and 21033.05, but sellers could not generate follow-through momentum. The price has since bounced and is now trading back within

US markets will offer some pretty interesting stuff on the calendar this week. As we transition from March to April, the labour market data will come back into the picture this week. That will keep markets on edge, having already to watch for the happenings in the Middle East still. But to start things off,

We are committed to getting inflation back to 2% on a sustained basis There is tension between our two objectives We haven’t really seen the downside risks to a large balance sheet Policy in a good place to wait and see how current situation plays out Tariffs likely a one-time increase adding between 0.5% and

Prior +1.9% HICP +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y expected Prior +2.0% Core CPI Y/Y +2.5% vs +2.5% prior Full report here Everything as expected with limited market reaction. Destatis notes that energy prices are expected to be up 7.2% on the same month of the previous year. This is the first increase in energy prices since

The WSJ is reporting that diplomats and global leaders are floating a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for fertilizer exports using a model similar to the Ukraine grain corridor established during the Russia-Ukraine war. The idea is to create a protected humanitarian shipping route, allowing critical supplies to move safely despite ongoing tensions.

The price of crude oil pushed to its highest level since March 9, extending to an intraday high of $103.86. In doing so, the price moved above the 61.8% retracement of the sharp move down from the March 9 high to the March 10 low, which comes in at $103.16—tilting the bias more firmly in

ECBs Stournaras is on the wires saying: ECB would react to a 2nd round of price effects from oil shock she conflict in Middle East be protracted, then ECB March baseline scenario is a risk Longer or may mean baseline no longer holds and makes a stagflation more likely. Here’s a roundup of recent ECB

The USD is trading mixed to start the session. The USDJPY is backing off its highs as it approaches the 2024 peak, with Japanese officials — including the Bank of Japan — growing increasingly concerned about currency weakness. That proximity to a key technical level, combined with policy sensitivity, is helping to stall the upside

President Trump spoke with the New York Post in some comments that are hard to interpret. He seemed to indicate that the US was negotiating with Iran’s parliamentary speaker, someone who was reported dead on the weekend but has continued to tweet frequently, including about market moves. Asked about Iran Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf,

Prior was +0.2 New orders +6.1 vs +11.8 prior Prices paid 32.7 vs 31.7 prior Employment -1.0 vs +7.5 prior The surging energy market is undoubtedly a boom for Texas, even with the associated inflation headwinds. However it’s going to be tough to pull the trigger on fresh drilling unless executives feel that the war

Trump on Truth Social:The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran. Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately

S&P 500 futures were up 50 points shortly before the open, but that’s faded to just +5 shortly after the open. The drop in stocks has come as oil prices have ticked back higher. WTI crude is up $2.96 to $102.56 and that’s now just 80-cents from the session high. Given the threats from Trump,

The mood is positive in US markets so far this week as Trump talks about a de-escalation. The messages are mixed though and that’s leading to some confusion. The oil market remains 1.8% higher but US stock futures are up 0.8% and Treasury yields are down 5-7 bps across the curve. Trump tweeted about negotiations,

USD/JPY began a fall earlier today after Japan’s FX chief Atsushi Mimura warned authorities are ready to take “decisive” action if speculative moves persist. It was the strongest intervention signal yet and led to a quick drop from 160.40 to below the big figure. That decline has continued and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama is now

The USD is pushing to new session highs against the EUR, GBP, CHF, and AUD in late-day trading, showing renewed demand even as US yields move lower. The 2-year yield is down -7.4 basis points to 3.840%, while the 10-year is off -8.6 basis points at 4.354%. That divergence—stronger dollar alongside falling yields—suggests flows and

No direct talks with the US took place, only messages via intermediaries Proposals conveyed to Iran have mostly been ‘unrealistic, unreasonable and excessive’ Tehran is dismissing reports of direct negotiations with Washington, clarifying that recent diplomatic exchanges have been limited to messages conveyed through third-party intermediaries. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, emphasized that these

The study notes that the costs of tariffs enacted by the Trump administration are “falling mostly on domestic importers and consumers”. In putting a number to that, the study reveals that US consumers are bearing around a third of the tariff burden currently. And if the tariffs are going to stay for longer, that cost

Diplomatic efforts to end the Iran war are underway but remain fragmented and uncertain, with the U.S. pursuing a dual-track approach of negotiations and military pressure. Iran has rejected proposed terms, regional players are divided, and troop build-ups suggest escalation risks remain high. Summary: The U.S. has floated a potential multi-point framework to end the

Euro area economic confidence slipped to 96.6 in March, after recording a revised 98.2 reading in February. That’s the lowest estimate since September with consumer confidence (-16.3) also falling back on the month to its lowest since the latter months of 2023. It’s all coming undone as the US-Iran war stirs up inflation fears in

Global leader in the online trading and financial services sector, XM has been awarded the Best Gold Broker and Best Customer Service for2026 by Capital Finance International (CFI.co). This recognition stands as a formal validation of its established institutional strength, operational resilience, and the service standards it has maintained for over 15 years. It also

According to BofA’s month-end fixing model, the dollar is the one favoured as we look to wrap up March and Q1 trading in the coming days. This fits with what was pointed out by both Credit Agricole and Barclays earlier here. Of note, BofA says that: “Our estimates suggest the potential for (1) material inflows

The RBI’s after-hours announcement of FX position caps is being viewed as a form of indirect intervention to support the rupee. While the policy forces short covering and limits speculative pressure, banks warn that rapid implementation could trigger disorderly unwinds and near-term volatility. Summary: The Reserve Bank of India announced new FX position caps after

The USDCAD is pushing higher again today, extending the trend-like rally that began last Monday—and doing so with solid technical backing. Last week’s turning point came when the pair found support near the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, bottoming at 1.3669 (just above the MA at 1.3662). From there, the buyers took control.

Headlines: Iran’s FM spokesperson: US proposals have mostly been ‘unrealistic and excessive’ USDJPY falls below the key 160.00 handle amid intensifying verbal intervention Month-end flows point to dollar buying into the fix – BofA Dollar buying looks to be the flavour this month-end BOJ reaffirms that underlying inflation is rising moderately towards 2% level Bavaria

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The S&P 500 broke through a key support on Friday and extended the losses into new lows as traders hedged into the weekend risk. Those hedges are being unwound today given that nothing happened over the weekend. The focus remains solely on the US-Iran negotiations and there’s some cautious optimism as Pakistan confirmed

The other state releases around the same time: Brandenburg CPI +% vs +2.0% y/y prior Hesse CPI +% vs +2.2% y/y prior Saxony CPI +2.6% vs +1.9% y/y prior North Rhine Westphalia +2.7% vs +1.8% y/y prior Baden Wuerttemberg CPI +2.5% vs +1.8% y/y prior The readings point to higher headline annual inflation in March

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar strengthened across the board heading into the weekend as traders hedged on risks of a potential ground invasion. This morning, we are seeing some weakness as those hedges get unwound. The focus remains solely on the US-Iran negotiations and there’s some cautious optimism as Pakistan confirmed that negotiations may

It is that time of the month again and the weekend break sort of splits the momentum in closing out March trading this time around. It leaves the last two days of the month to work with, before we transition to April in the middle of the week. That’s not quite a clean look and

Australian Prime Minister Albanese has announced that the National Cabinet meeting today adopted a National Fuel Security Plan. Among the measures: Government will halve the fuel excise on petrol and diesel for three months Will reduce the heavy vehicle road user charge to zero for three months I am probably going to be the most

Brent up around $2.70 to circa 115.30 a barrel US crude up around $2.35 to circa $102 a bbl US equity index futures had a very weak close on Friday, are lower to open the week. Weekend: Yemen attacks Israel again with missiles Pakistan says it will host US-Iran talks Where the warmakers are at:

Summary: Donald Trump claims major military success in Iran, but provides no verifiable detail on targets or impact. Bill Ackman frames the war as one-sided and bullish for equities, urging investors to “buy quality.” Both messages lean heavily on confidence and narrative, not confirmed data. History suggests early war claims are often overstated or incomplete.

The Friday plummet in ‘risk’ is extending in early Asia trade. The higher USD (a little higher) was noticeable earlier and that’s carrying on. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The BoJ Summary of Opinions points to a continued tightening bias, with policymakers open to further rate hikes if conditions allow. However, Middle East risks and rising oil prices are prompting caution, with stagflation concerns emerging. Summary: Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions shows a clear tightening bias, conditional on data. Some members support continued

Japan has signalled a higher likelihood of FX intervention, with Mimura’s use of “decisive” marking a clear escalation in rhetoric. Combined with Ueda’s earlier comments, authorities are showing increasing sensitivity to yen weakness. Summary: Japan’s FX chief Atsushi Mimura warns authorities are ready to take “decisive” action if speculative moves persist. Language seen as the

Morgan Stanley sees Australia as highly exposed to a global diesel supply shock, with low inventories raising the risk of shortages rather than just higher prices. The impact is expected to hit key industries, drive earnings volatility, and potentially disrupt export flows if shortages persist. Summary: Morgan Stanley flags Australia at the front line of

I am looking at Etherum via the Ether futures chart looks like a market that is trying to stabilize and mean-revert after a very volatile March. In plain English, ETH had a strong upside push, failed to hold the higher prices, and is now rotating back toward the area where the market has done the

Israel may invite U.S. to relocate Middle East bases after war Trump touts destruction in Iran, Ackman looks forward to a whopping victory dividend Australia to cut taxes on petrol and diesel use as part of National ‘Fuel Security’ plan Reserve Bank of India FX intervention move after hours on Friday. INR chaos day ahead?

BdF’s Villeroy says ECB ready to act, but too early to discuss timing of any rate hike European Central Bank’s François Villeroy says policymakers are ready to act if energy-driven inflation broadens. Emphasises it is too early to discuss timing of any rate hike despite rising market expectations. Iran war-driven energy shock is seen as

I posted the news from the FT here: Trump says US could take the oil in Iran (via Financial Times) In summary: U.S. President Donald Trump signalled a mix of escalation risk and cautious optimism on diplomacy in comments reported by the Financial Times. He suggested the United States could seize Iranian oil assets, including

BoJ Governor Ueda emphasised the growing impact of FX on inflation and policy, reinforcing that currency moves are now a key input into decision-making. While not verbal intervention, the comments supported the yen by signalling increased sensitivity to FX-driven inflation. Summary: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted FX as a key driver of inflation

China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading

Bond giants see growth shock ahead as markets fixate on inflation Summary: Major bond managers warn markets are underestimating growth risks from the U.S.–Iran war, according to Bloomberg. Oil above $110 has driven a Treasury selloff, with yields surging on inflation fears. Investors expect the Fed to stay tight or even hike, pushing bonds toward

Israel intercepted two drones launched from Yemen, following Houthi missile attacks over the weekend. The developments mark the group’s entry into the conflict and highlight the growing regional spread of hostilities, with implications for security and shipping. Summary: Israel’s military says it intercepted two drones launched from Yemen, marking continued spillover from the widening regional

Trump said U.S.-Iran talks are progressing well and could deliver a deal soon, while noting uncertainty remains. He also flagged the potential reopening of limited oil flows through Hormuz, signalling tentative de-escalation. Summary: Donald Trump says the U.S. is negotiating with Iran both directly and indirectly. Claims progress is strong, stating talks are “doing extremely

Via Reuters: Trump says US could ‘take the oil in Iran’ – FT Trump says US could seize the export hub of Kharg Island – FT Trump says number of Pakistan-flagged oil tankers Iran had permitted through the Strait of Hormuz had now been doubled to 20 – FT “To be honest with you, my

As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. The USD is a little stronger in very early trade. I’ll be back soon with weekend news. This article was written by

U.S. eases Cuba oil blockade in sign of energy-driven policy flexibility. Maybe. Summary: The U.S. is allowing a Russian crude tanker to reach Cuba, marking a targeted easing of its de facto oil blockade, according to The New York Times. The move comes as Washington temporarily relaxes some Russia-related restrictions to stabilise global oil flows

A light agenda indeed. The Bank of Japan left rates unchanged at its March 18-19 meeting. Today’s information from the BOJ is the ‘Summary of Opinions’, at that meeting. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) releases a “Summary of Opinions” after each monetary policy meeting. It serves as a record of the discussion and views of

The headline story on the weekend is from the Washington Post and it’s titled: ‘Pentagon prepares for weeks of ground operations in Iran’ The headline basically tells the whole story and it signals what the market has been buzzing about since the Japan-based USS Tripoli was deployed to the Middle East on March 13. That

For investors and traders navigating the current volatility, here is a backdrop of what happened over the recent trading sessions, characterized by escalating geopolitical tension and significant market retreats: Geopolitical Escalation: The conflict involving Iran has intensified as Houthis in Yemen announce entry into the conflict to support Tehran. While Trump signals to allies no

Trump joked about the “Strait of Trump” as the Iran war enters month two, with Hormuz disruptions persisting. Mixed signals on talks continue, while US stocks fell for a fifth week and NATO commitment concerns resurfaced. Summary Trump joked about the “Strait of Trump,” underscoring its central role in the Iran war and global oil

Iran expected to deliver counter-proposal to the US today – report Trump signals to allies no immediate plans for Iran invasion Houthis in Yemen announce entry into the conflict to support Iran Secretary of State Rubio said that the war with Iran will continue for another 2-4 weeks UMich final March consumer sentiment 53.3 vs

This day just keeps getting worse. At the start of trading Monday it looked like Trump was on track to get some kind of ceasefire by now. Instead, we have talk of bombing steel plants and now this. The Houthis in Yemen say they will enter the conflict on the side of Iran. The possible

The major US stock indices are closing lower for the day and lower for the week. The decline this week is the 5th consecutive weekly decline. The S&P decline is the worst string in 4 years. A look at the closing levels shows: Dow industrial average-793.78 or -1.73% at 45166.33. S&P index fell -108.49 or

I don’t know how much anyone believes any of this. On the dawn of this war, Trump was saying they were planning for negotiations and Marco Rubio was going to the Middle East. That this news was also leaked suggests that it was deliberately leaked. There has been a kneejerk lower in oil on this

Baker Hughes: Total rig count 543 versus 552 last week Oil rigs 409 versus 414 last week Nat Gas 127 versus 131 last week. Despite the higher prices, rigs decline in the current week. Go figure. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Japan flags FX intervention risk as oil-driven volatility pressures yen Summary: Japan signals readiness to stabilise funding conditions for businesses Authorities link FX volatility to oil-driven speculative moves G7 finance ministers to hold online meeting on market conditions Japan warns it will take “decisive steps” in FX if needed Officials monitoring markets with heightened vigilance

Cyclone Narelle disrupts 8% of global LNG supply from Australia India cuts fuel duties, increases export tax as oil volatility rises China industrial profits jump 15.2% as war risks threaten outlook RBI to hold rates at 5.25% through 2027 as oil risks cloud outlook New Zealand unveils fuel contingency plan amid rising Hormuz risks CNN:

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold is slowly erasing the gains as traders are getting increasingly worried of the risk of an escalation over the weekend. Trump has been jawboning the markets throughout the entire week with ceasefire comments and claims that Iran has been “begging” him for a deal. Meanwhile, the US military buildup in the Middle

The NASDAQ and S&P indices continue to press lower, with both now breaking below last Friday’s lows — a shift that tilts the bias more firmly to the downside. For the S&P index, the break below 6477.16 is a key technical development. Staying below that level keeps sellers in control and opens the door for

Nvidia stock is trading at six-month lows after a 1.6% decline today. The chart is problematic as it bottomed near $170 three times since November but it’s now broken that support and trading at the worst levels since September. The chipmaker is now testing the September lows, which stretch down to $164. Should that break,

Prelim was 55.5 Prior was 56.6 Conditions 55.8 vs 57.8 prelim Expectations 51.7 vs 54.1 prelim 1-year inflation 3.8% vs 3.4% prelim (prior was 3.4%) 5-year inflation 3.2% vs 3.2% prelim (prior was 3.3%) The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers is one of the most closely watched gauges of US household confidence. Based on

The USDJPY has pushed decisively above the 160.00 level, extending to a high of 160.29. In doing so, the pair briefly moved above a key swing area from 2024 near 160.25, but the break lacked follow-through, with the move only clearing that zone by a handful of pips before stalling. That hesitation at a prior

ECB’s Schnabel is speaking and says: We are facing a massive energy price shock. There is no need to rush into action. We have time to analyze the data. ECB should not be rushed to raise rates. This has a stagflation-lite feel—the energy shock keeps inflation risks alive, but the wait-and-see stance tells you the

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks after G7 meeting of foreign ministers: We had a really good meeting at G7 we expect the Iran operation to conclude at the appropriate time, we are talking weeks not months. Iran may decide to set up a tolling system on the Strait of Hormuz. There are no

Impact of Iran war comes as inflation has been high. There is more risk of faster shift from oil prices into inflation expectations. Risk that series of supply shocks drive up inflation. Economy is not creating a lot of jobs right now. Bending but not breaking is still how to view jobs market. To me

Prudent to hold interest rates steady and await more clarity on what the Fed should do next Pace and uncertainty of changes around AI have made a lot of Fed officials ‘uneasy’ War, fast changes due to artificial intelligence have again clouded economic outlook Even before oil shock, progress on inflation was at risk of

The AUDUSD moved below a key swing area between 0.6896 and 0.69088 yesterday, shifting the bias more to the downside. That break gave sellers more control and opened the door for further downside probing. In the early Asian session, the pair extended lower to 0.68707, but buyers stepped in, triggering a snapback rally. That rebound

Wall Street Journal (gated): Iran denies requesting strike pause, highlighting fragile diplomacy and low odds of a near-term ceasefire. Summary: Iran has not requested pause on energy-site strikes, mediators say Contradicts Trump’s claim pause was made at Iran’s request Tehran signals openness to talks but no final leadership approval yet U.S. 15-point plan seen as

From Jennifer Jacobs at CBS News: The Iranian response to the U.S. peace proposal is expected later today, sources familiar with the matter told Marg Brennan and me. President Trump and top White House officials have been told that Iran’s counter-proposal would likely arrive Friday via interlocutors. It will be interesting to see if this

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Trump has given Iran another 10 days: “Pausing … to Monday April 6” Trump: Very substantial talks are going on with Iran Senior Iran official: No plan for talks appears realistic at this stage WSJ. Iran wants US to scale back demands before agreeing to any cease-fire talks Mexico central bank lowers benchmark interest rate

There aren’t any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below. There is a large one for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level but it is not likely to factor much into play. That as the dollar is just losing minor ground after the gains from overnight trading. And

Yesterday, the US and Israel assassinated the leader of Iran’s navy and there are increasing signs that Iran is now taking a harder line on Hormuz. The WSJ reports that two container vessels belonging to China’s state-owned Cosco Shipping were turned back from crossing the Strait of Hormuz on Friday morning. The IRGC also appeared

Iran offers conditional Hormuz access to Spain-linked vessels, signalling selective easing, though global energy flows remain constrained. Summary: Iran signals openness to Spain-linked Hormuz transit requests “Non-hostile vessels” allowed passage with coordination, per prior UN note First explicit concession toward an EU state amid ongoing conflict Limited practical impact given Spain’s small tanker presence in

Philadelphia Pres Ann Paulson is on the wires saying Fed has made notable progress bringing inflation down Iran war creates risks for both growth and inflation Inflation levels still too high; expectations remain “fragile” No evidence the labor market is currently driving inflation Above-target inflation tied to AI-driven growth would complicate Fed response R-star estimate

Technology takes a hit, energy and consumer staples show strength The US stock market today presented a dynamic landscape, characterized by significant shifts across various sectors. Notably, the technology sector faced headwinds, while energy and consumer staples showed resilience in the turbulent market conditions. 📉 Technology Sector: Facing Challenges Today’s market heatmap reveals widespread declines

Prior +1.8%; revised to +2.0% Retail sales +2.5% vs +2.1% y/y expected Prior +4.5%; revised to +4.8% Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -0.4% vs -0.8% m/m expected Prior +2.0%; revised to +2.2% Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +3.4% vs +2.9% y/y expected Prior +5.5%; revised to +5.9% More to come.. This article was written by

Headlines: Oil prices extend into new highs amid weekend risk hedging as Trump’s jawboning fails The can being kicked down the road is not a good thing for markets IRGC warns that Strait of Hormuz remains “closed”, prohibits any passage by US allies How have interest rate expectations changed after this week’s events? ECB’s Muller:

Iran-linked hackers publicly claimed to have breached the personal inbox of FBI Director Kash Patel. They published photographs of him and his purported resume. Reuters confirmed via a Justice Dept official that his emails were compromised but the FBI didn’t immediately comment. Another notable Reuters report today is an exclusive that says the US can

The USDCAD has pushed to a new high for the week—and its highest level since January 20—in early North American trading. In doing so, the price has broken above a key swing area on the daily chart at 1.3860. That level was a clear bias-defining resistance, and the break tilts control more firmly in favor

ECB might not need to wait for fully visible second round effects before increasing rates Once energy prices have remained elevated for several weeks, one can already be reasonably confident that second round effects are likely I would not be surprised if by the next policy meeting, elevated energy prices were already showing up more

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The Nasdaq has been slowly erasing Monday’s gains as traders have been getting increasingly worried of an escalation over the weekend. Trump has been jawboning the markets throughout the entire week with ceasefire comments and claims that Iran has been “begging” him for a deal. Meanwhile, the US military buildup in the Middle

Fed’s Cook flags a clear shift toward inflation risk, driven by tariffs and the Iran war, with markets now dialing back expectations for rate cuts. Summary: Fed’s Cook signals shift toward inflation risk amid Iran war shock Energy-driven inflation pressures seen pushing Fed further from 2% target Prior disinflation progress already derailed by tariffs, now

RBI seen on hold through 2027 as oil risks skew inflation outlook higher Summary: Reuters poll: 69 of 71 economists expect RBI to hold at 5.25% on April 8 Majority see rates unchanged until at least mid-2027 Inflation below 4% target gives RBI policy flexibility Middle East conflict raises oil-driven inflation risks RBI expected to

Oil prices are again rising into triple digit levels due to the lack of any breakthrough in the US-Iran “negotiations” and the increasing risk of an escalation over the weekend. Trump has been jawboning prices throughout the entire week with ceasefire comments and claims that Iran has been “begging” him for a deal. Meanwhile, the

CNN analysis warns U.S. escalation in Iran risks casualties and uncertain outcomes. Summary: CNN frames U.S. options in Iran as high-risk with uncertain success Pentagon exploring troop deployments and seizure of key assets Trump balancing diplomacy pause with military build-up Iran retains leverage via Strait of Hormuz disruption Ground operations seen as likely to trigger

The major US stock indices fell sharply today with the NASDAQ leading the way with a decline of -2.38%. Chips stocks were hit hard. Meta was also sharply lower with a decline of -7.92%. Nvidia fell -4.16%, Broadcom fell -2.95%, Micron fell -6.97%, Intel fell -6.53%, AMD fell -7.96%. The Nasdaq index is now down

S&P 500 futures were up by around 0.7% earlier in the day on hopes of “peace” as US president Trump extended the cooling period on strikes against Iranian energy facilities for another 10 days. That as he touts “very substantial talks” happening in the background. All that being said, this is all mere noise. As

New Zealand prepares fuel contingency plan as Hormuz risks threaten supply Summary: New Zealand introduces four-phase fuel contingency framework Currently in monitoring phase with no immediate restrictions Government flags Hormuz disruption as key risk scenario Fuel stocks provide ~46–53 days of coverage including shipments Later phases could prioritise fuel for critical sectors Temporary rule change

Long time no see, Mr. Kuroda. He spokes to the Asahi newspaper in an interview and shared some of his thoughts on BOJ policy setting at the moment. The BOJ would raise the policy rate in April if you think about it normally The US-Iran war would only serve to accelerate interest rate hikes It

Trump delays Iran energy strikes by 10 days, shifting markets to a deadline-driven risk event. Summary: Trump pauses planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for 10 days New deadline set for April 6, 8pm ET — now a key market catalyst Ongoing talks described as “going very well” Signals temporary de-escalation, not resolution Oil risk

U.S. balances troop build-up with diplomacy window as Iran tensions keep energy and inflation risks elevated Summary: Pentagon weighs deploying up to 10,000 additional U.S. troops to Middle East Trump pauses Iran energy strikes for 10 days to allow negotiations Conflicting accounts on whether Iran requested extension Iran allows limited tanker passage through Hormuz as

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is out delivering a warning to all ships thinking about passing through the Strait of Hormuz amid the latest “cooling period” with the US. They are maintaining that the strait remains in de facto closure for now, adding that “any transit through the waterway will face harsh measures”. And

Cyclone Narelle knocks out key Australian LNG supply, tightening global market Summary: Cyclone Narelle disrupts LNG output in Western Australia Chevron halts production at Gorgon and Wheatstone plants Woodside’s North West Shelf impacted via supply disruptions Affected facilities account for ~8% of global LNG supply Offshore platforms also knocked offline by severe weather Adds to

I would not rush into any decision, prefer to be more cautious Still need to assess whether this ​should be looked through or whether we should be making a rate decision We don’t have sufficient information to make a decision for now I think we are still along the baseline We haven’t seen anything that

India cuts fuel duties to ease inflation while taxing export windfalls Summary: India cuts diesel excise duty to zero from 10 rupees/litre Petrol duty reduced to 3 rupees/litre from 13 rupees Windfall tax on diesel exports set at 21.5 rupees/litre Move aimed at easing domestic fuel costs and inflation Export taxes maintained to protect supply

Using latest data, the estimate of the natural rate of interest is around -0.9% to +0.5% That estimate is as of Q3 2025 BOJ latest estimation is based on six models, including time-series and structural models Although the range itself has not changed significantly, a closer look reveals that many of the estimates have recently

Prior +2.3% HICP +3.3% vs +3.9% y/y expected Prior +2.5% This is the first indication that higher energy prices are starting to see an impact. The monthly inflation estimate shows a 1.0% increase, which is the highest since February 2023. That is leading to headline annual inflation in Spain rising to 3.3%, which is the

Cook, Miran, Jefferson, Logan and Barr are jostling for speaking slots! Cook has already spoken, nothing on policy from her. Out of the 4 remaining I’ve most time for Logan. Market expectations of Fed rate cuts have diminished. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand consumer confidence March 2026 91.3 prior 100.1 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Profits at China’s industrial firms grew 15.2% in the first two months over the same period last year. accelerated from a 0.6% increase for the whole of last year This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Mexico central bank lowers benchmark rate to 6.75% from 7.00% Banxico board was not unanimous on the rate decision 3 members voted to cut rates to 6.75% 2 members voted to hold rates at 7.00% Balance of inflation risks remains tilted to the upside Headline inflation expected to converge to target in Q2 2027 Board

China industrial profits surge but rising costs and war risks cloud outlook Summary: China industrial profits jump 15.2% y/y in Jan–Feb vs 0.6% in 2025 Tech and electronics sectors lead gains, boosted by AI demand Margins remain under pressure from rising costs and competition Weak domestic demand reflected in ongoing producer deflation Middle East conflict

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 146.2bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations for the week the PBOC have injected net 231.9bn This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The price of crude oil remains tightly tied to developments in the Iran conflict. While the Trump administration continues to highlight military successes, the broader strategic picture is less settled. Iran’s leadership has not agreed to the proposed 15-point plan, keeping tensions elevated and leaving uncertainty around what comes next. As long as that uncertainty

Scanning some of the news overnight. Summary: Up to 40% of Gulf refining capacity reportedly damaged, removing ~11mb/d Supply shock expected to persist, with repairs taking months to years Europe scrambles for alternative energy, Italy seeks Algerian gas flows UK and Germany accelerate green transition amid fossil fuel strain ECB signals readiness to act on

Morgan Stanley delays Fed rate cut calls to late 2026, citing inflation risks, tariffs, and energy shocks raising the bar for easing. Initial call is here: Morgan Stanley delays Fed rate cut outlook to September, December (from June, September) Adding more now. Summary: Morgan Stanley pushes Fed rate cut timing back to September and December

Trump is speaking with Fox. Repeats that Iran requested he pause on strikes (10 day pause). Iranian officials deny this, “We have not submitted any request regarding potential U.S. attacks.” Whatever, where we are at is paused, regardless. Oil flow remains constipated with Hormuz blocked. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The NASDAQ index is currently down 430 points or -1.96% at 21,500. That takes the price below the low price from last Friday’s trade at 21,522.75. It also takes a price to the lowest level since September 4. The next major target area comes between 20,931 and 21,033 (swing lows from September 2 and August

The results of the $44 billion sale of seven-year notes are out and this one was a bit better with only a 0.3 bps tail after tails of 2.0 bps and 1.3 bps in sales of 2s and 5s earlier in the week. It’s not a pretty one though in the bond market with 2s

Structural economic shifts (trade, immigration, AI) expected to permanently reshape Canada’s economy Bank of Canada faces a difficult task managing structural changes Economy likely to face significant upheaval over next five years with more variable inflation Reduced immigration will limit growth potential and pose economic challenges BoC assessing economy carefully to distinguish cyclical vs structural

The WSJ is reporting: Iran wants the U.S. to scale back demands before agreeing to any cease-fire talks U.S. proposal seen as excessive, including dismantling nuclear program, limiting missiles, and ending regional support Iran open to talks, but only under more reasonable terms Refuses to negotiate missile program upfront Rejects permanent end to uranium enrichment

Initial jobless claims 210K vs 210K estimate 4 week moving averages of initial jobless claims 210.5K vs 210.75K last week Continuing claims 1.819M vs 1.851M estimate 4-week moving average of continuing claims 1.847M vs 1.849M last week. The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending March 14 were in Kentucky (+3,305), Oklahoma (+1,201),

There was a call earlier in the week between Trump and Netanyahu and afterwards, Bibi seeming toned down his rhetoric. The latest from the WSJ picks up on that and says that “Israeli officials have become convinced President Trump could soon try to end the war” citing people familiar. In light of that, Israel has

The risk mood is worsening following Trump’s cabinet meeting. The market may have been looking for better signs that a deal was coming or that the Strait of Hormuz would open soon. Instead, it was the usual talking points that Iran is ‘desperate to make a deal’ but no real signs that’s coming and constant

The AUDUSD is typically a classic risk-on/risk-off barometer, but since the start of the Iran/US–Israel conflict on February 28, price action has been anything but one-directional. The pair has traded to new highs for the year, while also rotating back down to test late-January lows — a sign of heightened uncertainty and two-way volatility. Earlier

Canada added 45,600 payroll employees in January, a solid rebound after December’s 10,600 decline. It contrasts with the more-widely viewed LFS survey, which showed a 25K decline in January followed by an 84K decline in February. On a year-over-year basis, payroll employment was up by 33,500 (+0.2%) in January despite a decline in the population.

Iran gave the US eight boats of oil “They said, to show you the fact that we’re real and solid and we’re there, we’re going to let you have eight boats of oil.” Iran said it would let eight boats of oil go through, suggests they were Pakistani flagged Then the apologized for something and

The market mood is not as bad as it was when we returned from the weekend. However, it is not as hyped up as what it was made out to be when US president Trump claimed “very productive” talks with Iran on Monday. Amid the mixed messages from both sides, we’re pretty much caught somewhere

Headlines: Trump: Iran better get serious soon, before it is too late Oil prices continue to eat into the Monday drop as market optimism dwindles S&P 500 erases most of the Monday’s gains as optimism fades and weekend hedging begins USDJPY approaches the key 160.00 handle as Iran rejects the ceasefire and optimism fades BOJ

Here is a post from Tansim, translated: An informed source told Tasnim News Agency that Iran’s response to the 15-point proposal from the United States was formally delivered last night via intermediaries, and Iran is awaiting the other side’s reply. According to this source, Iran stated in its response that acts of aggression and assassination

The USDCAD continues to push higher, with the pair trading at its strongest level since January 20 as buyers remain firmly in control of the short-term trend. The latest leg higher began late Tuesday from a low at 1.37406, and since then, the price action has followed a textbook bullish progression—breaking key technical levels, consolidating,

The roller coaster ride continues as today we are starting to see some fading optimism in markets. That as there continues to be mixed messages on negotiations and talks of a potential deal between the US and Iran. There’s absolutely no coherence to the communication from both sides and it looks like that is starting

Prior -24.7; revised to -24.8 Not much of a surprise there as German consumer sentiment deteriorated heading into April, largely due to concerns on higher energy prices. That as the Middle East conflict continues to drag on for longer, set to stretch into its fourth week soon. Households look to be bracing for higher prices

Iran spent the entire day sending various messages through the media that it won’t accept a ceasefire deal or negotiate with the US around its 15-point plan. However, we heard from Pakistani sources that they hadn’t officially rejected talks so that’s the next big headline we’re waiting for. Notably, Trump was completely silent on the

Trump on Truth Social earlier today wrote: The Iranian negotiators are very different and “strange.” They are “begging” us to make a deal, which they should be doing since they have been militarily obliterated, with zero chance of a comeback, and yet they publicly state that they are only “looking at our proposal.” WRONG!!! They

For many traders, the first step is often the most important. There is a lot of trading content online, but not all of it helps people learn clearly and usefully. Many traders read posts, watch videos, and follow market chatter without first building a strong foundation. That is why structured learning matters. At investingLive Academy,

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. more to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Throughout this war, we’ve heard persistent reports that the US and Israel have different goals in Iran. The main evidence for that was Israeli strikes on oil storage facilities in Tehran. That drew a rebuke from Trump and he said on Truth Social that Israel would no longer be striking Iran’s infrastructure. Now a report

As the winds of war continue to exert its influence on the markets, the USD is trading higher and near highs for the day. The US stocks are lower with the futures implying a decline of -240 points for the Nasdaq and -52 points for the S&P, The US yields are higher with the 10

Iran’s foreign minister has been relaying Iran’s position in the media, alongside parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf. US and Israel have temporarily removed 2 senior Iranian officials from their list of officials to eliminate as they explore possible peace talks, These are parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf and FM Abbas Araghchi, who have been removed from the target

Reuters cites an unnamed senior official from Iran following the rejection of the US proposal as a baseline for a ceasefire. Iran’s assessment is that the US proposal is “one-sided and unfair”, serving only US and Israeli interests Iran’s initial response was conveyed via Pakistan is that the proposal lacks the minimum requirements for success

Prior +0.6% GDP +2.7% vs +2.6% y/y prelim Prior +2.8% This reaffirms the more robust showing in Spain’s economy to wrap up last year. The details show that domestic demand contributed 0.9% to quarterly GDP growth with external demand contributing -0.1%. Overall, the Spanish economy grew by 2.8% in 2025. And while that is not

There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level. It is the same case as yesterday with the expiries not tying to any technical significance. However, it could just place a light ceiling on price action provided that there

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar strengthened yesterday after Iran rejected the proposed ceasefire and outlined its own conditions that included closure of all US bases in the Gulf, reparations for the attacks, lifting of all sanctions and allowing Iran to retain its missile program without restrictions. These conditions are of course unacceptable for the

Summary: Dollar rises ~2% since Iran conflict began Gains driven by safe-haven demand, energy dynamics Morgan Stanley warns rally may be a bull trap Markets seen underpricing growth-negative impact Fed expected to cut rates twice this year ECB may hike to counter energy-driven inflation Narrowing rate differentials seen as USD headwind Dollar downside risk if

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar strengthened yesterday after Iran rejected the proposed ceasefire and outlined its own conditions that included closure of all US bases in the Gulf, reparations for the attacks, lifting of all sanctions and allowing Iran to retain its missile program without restrictions. These conditions are of course unacceptable for the

US stocks take an optimistic view on the war in Iran The US is basically threatening to kill Ghalibaf and Araghchi if no deal made The present Iran gave Trump was allowing several fuel tankers through Hormuz Do you want to hear the story of gold? I will tell the technical story in this video

The BOJ has announced that it will begin publishing data on the estimated core consumer price inflation (CPI) rate, so as to better capture developments and trends in prices. It says that the data will be published under the “Indicators for Core CPI”, coming with the following measures: CPI that excludes “institutional factors” Trimmed mean

Oil climbs as ceasefire talk clashes with rising US ground-war signals. Earlier: US says two-thirds of Iran’s arms facilities destroyed in ongoing strikes Summary: Oil rising as geopolitical risk premium rebuilds Market volatility driven by conflicting headlines US troop deployments point to possible escalation Kharg Island emerging as key strategic target Handles ~90% of Iran

Key points: Bitcoin has gained roughly 7% since 28 February, outperforming the S&P 500, gold, and the MSCI World Index But Bitcoin entered the war already down 45% from its $126,000 October ATH, meaning most of the damage was done before the first strike The S&P 500 has broken below its 200-DMA for the first

COSCO move signals Hormuz reopening — but not on equal terms. Summary: COSCO resumes container bookings to Middle East Services cover UAE, Saudi Arabia and Gulf region Move signals tentative reopening of Hormuz routes Shipping remains subject to security uncertainty Container flows seen as early risk barometer Reports of selective passage and transit fees Potential

We will have enough data by April to determine if we need to act Or we can decide to wait and see for further developments Every passing day of the conflict contributes to an increase in inflationary risks A rate hike in April is certainly an option, but that is just one option on the

RBA warns energy shock risks unanchoring inflation as conflict clouds outlook Summary: RBA flags Middle East conflict as dual growth-inflation shock Financial conditions already tightening Energy prices pose upside inflation risk Focus on preventing inflation expectations becoming unanchored Risk of more restrictive policy if expectations rise Short-run neutral rates pulled in both directions Longer conflict

Prior 91 At the same time, we also have the business confidence numbers for March as per below: Business confidence 97 vs 96 expected Prior 97 Services confidence 96 Prior 96 Manufacturing confidence 99 Prior 102 French household confidence eased back in March as the proportion of households who consider that prices will accelerate over

Putin banned the export of gold bars weighing over 100 grams from the Russian Federation. As of May 1 2026. There are some exceptions. Adam had the details posted earlier, here: Putin signs order to limit gold exports This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

There was something of a puzzling moment yesterday when Trump was asked if he trusts the Iranians who were said to be in talks with US representatives. Trump said he doesn’t trust anybody but alluded to receiving a “gift” that he said suggested “we’re dealing with the right people.” “They gave us a present, and

Markets eye unusual ceasefire signal as Trump may act without formal deal. – ps. Maybe its just me but could this just be some sort of misdirection ahead of an imminent ground invasion? Anyway, on with the post. – Summary: Israeli media suggests Trump may announce ceasefire by Saturday Reports indicate no final agreement may

Energy shock splits policy outlook as ECB eyes hikes while Fed stays on hold Summary: Middle East conflict drives renewed energy-led inflation shock Bond yields rise as markets price potential rate hikes ECB expected to begin tightening as soon as next month Europe more exposed to energy price pressures than US Barclays sees two ECB

The CSPI index from Japan tracks prices charged between firms: stronger-than-expected print would reinforce signs that domestic inflation is becoming more embedded, supporting expectations for further Bank of Japan tightening a softer reading would suggest inflation momentum is easing This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump pushes for fast end to war while escalating pressure on Iran Summary: Trump targeting 4–6 week timeline to end war Conflict seen by US as entering final phase Mid-May Xi meeting assumes war conclusion Iran rejects direct talks with US US continues deploying additional troops Ground operation options remain on table Dual-track strategy: diplomacy

Softer Australian CPI offers little relief as RBA seen hiking amid energy-driven risks. Earlier: Australia February CPI cools slightly, but energy shock clouds inflation outlook Summary: February CPI undershoots expectations slightly Trimmed mean inflation also comes in softer Data suggests inflation cooling marginally pre-shock Labour market still tighter than full employment Inflation seen returning to

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Trump-Xi summit reset for May as war delay reshapes geopolitical calendar Summary: Trump-Xi summit set for May 14–15 in Beijing Meeting delayed roughly six weeks due to Iran conflict Timing aligns with US estimates of war duration Reciprocal visit to Washington planned later this year Talks expected to cover trade, tech, geopolitics Preparations reportedly in

Fed’s Miran leans dovish, urges support as labour softens and oil shock dismissed Summary: Miran downplays inflation, cites measurement issues Labour market seen weakening over extended period Fed policy may need to provide additional support Oil price surge acknowledged but seen as temporary Central banks should look through energy shocks Dovish stance contrasts with inflation

The USDCAD has been grinding higher, extending the bullish momentum that followed Monday’s volatile price action. Earlier in the week, the pair surged to test the March high at 1.3752, only to find sellers after headlines crossed that Trump was backing off threats to strike Iranian energy infrastructure. That shift in tone triggered a sharp

Iran US-Israel War news : CNN is reporting that the Trump administration officials are working to organize a potential meeting this weekend—likely in Pakistan, though Turkey is also being considered—to explore a diplomatic off-ramp to the ongoing conflict with Iran. Vice President JD Vance is expected to attend, possibly alongside other senior officials, though details

CPI for February slightly lower than expected both headline and underlying (core). Australian shares have added to gains. March, of course, has brought fuel price surges. We’ll get that news in a month. I’m seeing the figures being greeted with joy. Dial it back folks, the target band the RBA shoots for is 2-3%. I’ll

Iran is threatening to shut the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if there is a ground attack on Iran. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is located between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea in Africa, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. At its narrowest point, the strait is about 26 to 30

I don’t love reporting on rumors that are doing the rounds because most of it is garbage but at the same time, I like to know what the rumors are. There’s also a war going on and the state of journalism is lamentable, so it’s a constant stream of staged ‘leaks’ and ‘sources’ reports that

If this event had been held a few weeks ago, my speech would have been very different But we find ourselves yet again in a different world We are facing profound uncertainty about the path of the economy None of us can resolve the uncertainty about how the war in Iran will play out Our

US stocks are higher, yields are back down after moving higher yesterday, and oil prices are lower. The USD meanwhile is confined in trading and little changed awaiting the next shove. Overnight, Iran said that they would allow “non-hostile” ships through the Strait of Hormuz” which is leading the the reversal in stocks and yields

High yield 3.980% Wi level at the time of the auction 3.966% Tail +1.4 basis points versus 6 month average of 0.3 basis points Bid to cover 2.29X versus 6 month average of 2.36X Directs (domestic buyers) 22.48% versus 6 month average of 27.5% Indirects (international buyers) 61.9% versus 6 month average of 61.7% Dealers

It’s a testing moment for markets as we await the outcome of talks between the US and Iran. Trump’s message on Monday was a bit out of the blue but the playbook looks to be one that we have seen before. It is a very similar one to how he went about on the trade/tariffs

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD: The US dollar remains under pressure amid optimistic expectations for an end to the US-Iran war. The catalyst for these expectations was Trump’s announcement on Truth Social on Monday of a five-day ceasefire aimed at paving the way for “a complete and total resolution of the hostilities”. The greenback hasn’t yet fallen

The USDCHF continues to trade in a choppy, back-and-forth range as the market digests a steady flow of shifting headlines. While the volatility spike from last Friday has begun to settle, the price action remains directionless, with alternating pushes higher and lower. Technically, the pair is coiling. The presence of lower highs and higher lows

Headlines: Trump successfully capped the upside in oil, raising market hopes for an end to the war Oil holds near the lows for the week though the drums of war continue to beat US futures push higher so far today, technical breakdown on hold for now Gold recovers some ground as hopes for the end

Highest since March of 2022 Prices for nonfuel imports rose 1.1% in February Prior was +0.2% Export prices +1.5% vs +0.5% expected Prior export prices +0.6% This is before the war. I’m starting to get the feeling we’re about to have a big inflation problem as it was broad based. Higher prices for imports were

Australia’s February CPI showed modest cooling, but inflation remains above target and the data predates a sharp energy-driven inflation shock, leaving risks tilted to the upside. Summary: Australia February CPI cooled slightly to 3.7% y/y (vs 3.8% prior/exp). Monthly CPI flat at 0.0% m/m, down from 0.4%. Trimmed mean came in soft m/m at 0.2%

There have been no talks between the US and Iran, either directly or indirectly Friendly countries like Pakistan are seeking to lay the groundwork for dialogue between Tehran and Washington Hopes that these efforts could help in ending the war The comments here are coming after a report that two Pakistani officials told the AP

Bank of England MPC member Megan Greene said Wednesday she was “not close” to voting for a rate hike at this month’s meeting, but her comments carried a clear warning about rising inflation risks that markets shouldn’t dismiss. “I wasn’t tempted to hike,” Greene said at a Jefferies event. That’s notable because she’s the committee’s

There are just a couple to take note of on the board for the day, as highlighted in bold below. The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1605 level. The expiries don’t tie to any technical significance but could help lock price action a little in the session ahead, though the impact is likely to

Prior 88.6; revised to 88.4 Current conditions 86.7 vs 86.0 expected Prior 86.7 Expectations 86.0 vs 86.0 expected Prior 90.5; revised to 90.2 German business sentiment falls in March and that is not all too surprising considering the Middle East developments. The outlook/expectations index also dips back lower, falling to its weakest since February 2025.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Oil prices have eased significantly on Monday after Trump announced on his Truth Social account a five-day ceasefire aimed at paving the way for “a complete and total resolution of the hostilities”. However, the selloff lost momentum as Iran denied Trump’s claims. Nevertheless, the hope for the end of the war remained given

Ceasefire speculation between the US and Iran has become more complex, with uncertainty over Israel’s support and Iran pushing for a broader agreement, even as a detailed 15-point proposal is reportedly already in play. Summary: Oil remains headline-driven as ceasefire speculation evolves. NYT reports uncertainty over whether Israel supports the proposal. Iran signalled it wants

We will be considering at every meeting what the scenario is Drop in consumer confidence was quite big You can see downturn in PMIs Inflation expectations show significant effect for first year, then smaller The market dynamic suggests a price-level jump Understanding selling price expectations will be important Wage tracker is a good leading indicator

Oil finds some bids as Iran’s maximalist ceasefire demands clash with US military buildup. Summary: Iran responds to ceasefire proposal with maximalist demands (US bases closure, sanctions removal, Hormuz fees) US officials view terms as unrealistic, reducing likelihood of near-term deal Trump simultaneously pursuing diplomacy and military escalation US to deploy ~10,000 additional troops, including

FARS — an Iranian semi-official, regime-aligned outlet was out with a report on ceasefire talks and it’s led to some volatility in markets. The report was first out at 7:50 am ET but is getting some more attention in the past few minutes. Here is what it says (translation): 🔹 Informed sources report increased efforts

Summary: Reports point to a proposed one-month ceasefire between the US and Iran. The framework is said to be led by Witkoff and Kushner. A 15-point agreement would be negotiated during the truce period. Terms focus heavily on dismantling Iran’s nuclear capabilities and curbing regional influence. Oil implications hinge on Hormuz remaining open and de-escalation

Here is a more Google Discover-friendly version with a stronger headline, a sharper intro, and cleaner flow: Bitcoin leads crypto higher as bulls test a key breakout zone, while Ethereum follows Crypto is showing renewed strength today, with Bitcoin leading the move and Ethereum also pushing higher. But the more important question for traders and

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Silver has been regaining some ground over the past few days, supported by a couple of optimistic developments on the US-Iran front. On Monday, prices jumped after Trump announced on his Truth Social account a five-day ceasefire aimed at paving the way for “a complete and total resolution of the hostilities”. Late yesterday,

Tech shares bore the brunt of the pain in trading yesterday but the losses in Wall Street just ate a little bit into the gains on Monday. That of course followed the technical scare from Friday last week, which set up a rather gloomy mood early this week before US president Trump came to the

There are increasing reports of a US military build up of potential ground forces heading towards Iran. Trump’s 5-day truce is looking like a ruse to shore up defenses among Gulf allies and and bomb Iran’s offensive capabilities before than can be turned against Gulf infrastructure. So what’s the plan? All the speculation is about

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold has been regaining some ground over the past few days, supported by a couple of optimistic developments on the US-Iran front. On Monday, prices jumped after Trump announced on his Truth Social account a five-day ceasefire aimed at paving the way for “a complete and total resolution of the hostilities”. However, the

Summary: Conway frames cost of living as purchasing power, not just inflation, with NZ prices structurally high vs OECD Pandemic inflation lifted price levels ~26%, while income growth only just kept pace Real wages modestly higher, but purchasing power still only around OECD average Middle East conflict flagged as a new inflation risk via energy

As a reminder, Japan is one of the most heavily impacted nations by the US-Iran conflict. That as it is unable to secure oil supply from the Middle East amid the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. And for a country ever so reliant on energy imports, it’s a massive blow to the

From the BoJ we get the minutes of the January meeting. We had the ‘Summary’ from this back at the beginning of February: signalled moderate economic momentum and stickier inflation trends, endorsing careful future rate increases if forecasts unfold as expected. From Australia, February inflation data: Australian inflation data due Wednesday, March 25, 2026. Preview.

ICYMI, this from the Financial Times earlier. Iran said “non-hostile vessels” may transit Hormuz with coordination, signalling controlled access rather than full closure, as thousands of ships remain stalled amid rising regional tensions. Summary: Iran says “non-hostile vessels” can transit Hormuz with coordination. Communication sent to International Maritime Organization members. Tehran signals conditional access rather

He covered a bunch of topics in his interview with the BBC. Here’s his take on the Middle East conflict: If Iran remains a threat and higher oil prices hold, it will have “profound implications” to the global economy It is too early to say what the outcome will be on the conflict However, it

Oil retraces a touch as Iran demands cast doubt on ceasefire and US boosts troop presence PBoC adds liquidity with CNY 500bn MLF, extends net injection streak (450bn mature) RBNZ’s Conway warns on purchasing power as Iran shock clouds NZ outlook, GDP 4cast slashed Iran distrusts Trump ceasefire peace push as US pairs diplomacy with

Policy rate is the main tool but there are situations where FX intervention is more suitable Negative interest rates worked in the past but they have side effects Interest rate differentials are an important driver of the exchange rate The Swiss franc hasn’t moved on these headlines but the pair has recently bounced after hitting

Its been a day of developments in the Middle East. It appears on balance positive: Oil falls on report of possible one-month ceasefire under Witkoff-Kushner plan US-Iran ceasefire proposal is complex, 15 points need to be agreed. Hormuz would open. Oil steady as US-Iran ceasefire talks face Israel uncertainty and broader Iran demands and this

The price of Bitcoin is trading lower on the day and has moved back below its key moving averages — the 200-hour MA at $71,082 and the 100-hour MA at $69,815. These levels have been important barometers for buyers and sellers going back to February, with the price oscillating above and below them as the

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade

Iran is wary of Trump’s push for talks, believing previous negotiations were used as cover for strikes, even as the US presses ahead with a 15-point plan and a growing military build-up. Info via Axios (though I mentioned it earlier) Summary: Iran suspects Trump’s peace push may be a setup for further strikes. Tehran told

Iran proposed a regional security alliance excluding the US and Israel, signalling a push to reshape Middle East security dynamics and reduce reliance on external powers. The proposal is not new, but its more aggressive framing during active conflict reinforces shifting regional security dynamics and geopolitical risk. Summary: Iran proposes regional security and military union

PBoC extends liquidity support with 13th straight MLF net injection Summary: PBoC to inject CNY 500bn via 1-year MLF, vs CNY 450bn maturing Results in CNY 50bn net liquidity injection Marks 13th straight month of net injections Conducted via variable-rate, multiple-price auction Signals continued policy support for liquidity and credit Reinforces accommodative but measured easing

The US plans to deploy 3,000 82nd Airborne troops to the Gulf, boosting military readiness against Iran while keeping options open, as regional attacks intensify and ceasefire signals remain unclear. While we are all talking about the possibility of a ceasefire: Oil falls on report of possible one-month ceasefire under Witkoff-Kushner plan US-Iran ceasefire proposal

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. PBOC injects 20.5bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos at 1.4% (unchanged) in open market operations This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

BoJ minutes signal a steady tightening bias with inflation nearing target and financial conditions still accommodative, while rising oil prices since the meeting add fresh upside risks. Summary: BoJ minutes reinforce gradual but ongoing rate hike bias. Members see financial conditions still accommodative, helped by weak yen. Underlying inflation seen edging toward 2% target. No

SpaceX is reportedly preparing to file for an IPO that could raise over $75bn, though the size and structure remain uncertain given its already high private valuation. The Information carries the report, gated. Summary: SpaceX reportedly preparing to file IPO prospectus imminently. Deal could target a raise of more than $75bn, per report. Retail allocation

A proposed ceasefire is the chatter right now: Oil falls on report of possible one-month ceasefire under Witkoff-Kushner plan US-Iran ceasefire proposal is complex, 15 points need to be agreed. Hormuz would open. Oil steady as US-Iran ceasefire talks face Israel uncertainty and broader Iran demands As hostilities continue: Israel expands conflict footprint with strike

Israel struck a major Russia–Iran supply route in the Caspian Sea, targeting Bandar Anzali port and highlighting expanding conflict scope and deepening Moscow–Tehran cooperation. The chatter is of a ceasefire, but there’s a way to go until we get there: Oil falls on report of possible one-month ceasefire under Witkoff-Kushner plan US-Iran ceasefire proposal is

Axios has turned into something of a White House propaganda machine in this war but this report is more cautious. It says that the US and a group of regional mediators are waiting for a response from Iran about holding peace talks on Thursday. The problem for Iran is that last month, it held two

USDJPY Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch Since the start of the North American session, the USDJPY has narrowed its focus for traders. On the topside, the key directional triggers remain the 100-hour moving average at 158.887 and the 200-hour moving average at 159.04 — clearing either level would shift the near-term bias more decisively

Deutsche Bank turns more hawkish on the ECB, arguing that energy-driven inflation risks now outweigh growth concerns, though the policy outlook remains highly uncertain. Summary: Deutsche Bank shifts ECB call in response to Middle East conflict Now expects ECB to hike rates to 2.50% in 2026 Two 25bp hikes seen in June and September Energy

Yesterday at this time, markets were in the middle of a dramatic reversal. Earlier declines in equities flipped sharply higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surging more than 1,000 points at its peak. At the same time, yields—which had pushed up toward 4.44%—reversed lower and briefly moved into negative territory on the day. The

The US treasury sold $69 billion of 2 year notes at a high yield of 3.936% WI level at the time of the auction 3.918% Tail 1.8 basis points vs 6 month average of -0.2 basis points Bid to cover 2.44X vs 6 month average of 2.62X Directs 16.5% versus 6 month average of 32.1%

Earlier: PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8840 – Reuters estimate PBOC inject 17.5bn yuan in 7-day reverse repo OMO at 1.4% (unchanged rate) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.