BOJ summary of opinions at June meeting:
- One member said: While much of the hard data for April and May has been relatively solid, it is likely that the effects of tariff policies are yet to materialize
- One member said while the impact of U.S. tariff policy will certainly exert downward pressure on firms’ sentiment, the bank needs to take some time to examine the magnitude of the impact on the real economy
- One member said despite the impact of U.S. tariff policy, many firms will likely continue to raise wages to address labor shortages, make high levels of business fixed investment
- One member said although the direct impact of U.S. tariff policy has not been observed so far, Japan’s economy has been somewhat stagnant
- One member said Japan’s economy at crossroads between making a transition to a “growth-oriented economy driven by wage increases and investment” and falling into stagflation
- One member said although uncertainty regarding trade policies remains extremely high, on the domestic front, wage developments have been solid, and the CPI has been slightly higher than expected
- One member said as the price of rice could affect perceived inflation and inflation expectations, it is necessary to closely monitor developments in rice prices
- One member said as US, Europe and emerging economies leaning toward accommodative policies, Japan’s economy could unexpectedly be pushed up or experience inflationary pressure
- One member said if its outlook for economic activity and prices will be realized, the bank, in accordance with improvement in economic activity and prices, will continue to raise the policy interest rate
- One member said given high uncertainty, the bank should, at this point, maintain accommodative financial conditions with the current interest rate level and thereby firmly support the economy
- One member said even though prices have been somewhat higher than expected, it is appropriate for the Bank to maintain current policy, given downside risks stemming from U.S. tariff policy and situation in the Middle East
- One member said with extremely high uncertainty in the outlook, it is appropriate for the Bank to maintain the current policy interest rate for the time being
- One member said increased volatility in the super-long-term zone may spill over to the entire yield curve, thereby spreading unintended tightening effects to the market as a whole
- One member said situation of government bond markets around the world has been a major topic of discussion, such as at international meetings, attention is warranted on the possibility that developments overseas will spread to Japan
- One member said although the CPI has been higher than expected, the pass-through of higher wages to services prices seems to have plateaued
- One member said with inflation being at levels higher than expected, the bank may face a situation where it should adjust the degree of monetary accommodation decisively, even when there is high uncertainty
USD/JPY is doing very little:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
