- Prior -$1.52B
- Trade Balance for March C$-0.51B vs C$-1.56B est.
- Exports C$69.90 billion versus C$70.04B last month
- Imports C$70.40 billion versus C$71.44B last month
The modest decline is still a drag on the Canadian growth, but it was still better than expectations and something closer to 0 is better for US/Canada relations.
PM Carney will be meeting with Pres. Trump today. I wonder what his mood will be on the first visit since it being elected? Some details for the meeting:
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Exports to the U.S. fell 6.6% in March, the second monthly decline after January’s record high.
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Despite recent drops, exports to the U.S. were still up 2.5% compared to November 2024.
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Imports from the U.S. declined 2.9% in March.
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Canada’s trade surplus with the U.S. narrowed from $10.8B in February to $8.4B in March.
Trump may not like that import FROM the US declined -2.9%. That trend may be the new normal as trade is shifted away from the US.
Details of exports:
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Total exports edged down 0.2% in March after a 5.4% drop in February.
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Exports remain 10.2% higher year-over-year despite back-to-back monthly declines.
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US tariffs on Canadian goods began in March and weighed on performance.
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Exports to the U.S. fell 6.6%, but were nearly offset by a 24.8% surge in exports to other countries.
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In real (volume) terms, exports actually rose 1.8% in March.
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6 of 11 product categories saw declines; price effects contributed to the overall drop.
Key product breakdown:
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Consumer goods: ↓ 4.2%, with broad declines across product types.
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Meat products: ↓ 10.8% (mainly pork to Asia).
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Pharmaceuticals: ↓ 7.0% (mostly to the U.S.).
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Energy products: ↓ 2.2%
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Nuclear fuel & other energy: ↓ 54.5% (less uranium to Netherlands & U.S.).
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Natural gas: ↓ 13.7% (due to price declines).
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Motor vehicles and parts: ↑ 7.7%
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Passenger cars/light trucks: ↑ 11.8%, rebounding from February’s 14.5% drop.
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Up 22.5% since November 2024, ahead of new U.S. auto tariffs in April.
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Other gains:
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Farm, fishing & intermediate food products: ↑ 3.1%
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Forestry, building & packaging materials: ↑ 3.5%
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Metal ores & non-metallic minerals: ↑ 6.5%
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Details of imports:
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Total imports fell 1.5% in March, ending a streak of five consecutive monthly increases.
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Largest declines:
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Metal and non-metallic mineral products: ↓ 15.8%
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Energy products: ↓ 18.8%
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In real (volume) terms, imports edged down 0.1%.
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Import statistics are based on CBSA administrative data and typically require minimal estimation.
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Due to data delays from the CARM digital initiative, estimated values were used for many product categories from November 2024 to March 2025.
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Users should interpret March import data with caution, as significant revisions are expected in future updates.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
