CIBC now expects both the Fed and Bank of Canada to cut rates by 25bps at each of their next three meetingsThis represents a 25bp lower endpoint for rates in 2024 and 2025 compared to previous forecastsDisinflation appears entrenched, allowing central banks to focus on downside economic risksHowever, CIBC doesn’t see an imminent recession despite recent softer US dataThey expect Q3 US growth to settle around 1.5%, noting Q2 was stronger than expectedRising unemployment tied more to labor force growth than economic weaknessCIBC sees less reason for central banks to pause rate cuts to assess inflation progressBut they don’t expect aggressive 50bp cuts without “scarier economic news”For next week’s US CPI, CIBC forecasts 0.2% m/m for both headline and core, in line with consensusThey see US retail sales control group falling 0.2% m/m in July, below the +0.1% consensus
CIBC has moved towards a slightly more dovish outlook, but still expects a gradual easing cycle rather than aggressive cuts. They view recent data as supporting earlier cuts, but not signaling a dramatic economic downturn.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
