The price of gold closed 2025 at $4,317.95 and surged sharply higher, peaking at $5,598.75 on January 29. That was a fast, momentum-driven move in a short period of time. The rally then reversed, with price tumbling to a low near $4,400 on February 2 before rebounding again to around $5,400 on March 1—just one day after the Iran–US/Israel war began.
However, instead of extending higher on geopolitical risk, the market rotated lower. The price fell back below the 2025 closing level at $4,317.95 and extended down to a low of $4,098 on Monday. That decline stalled just ahead of a key confluence: the rising 200-day moving average at $4,083 and the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the September 2022 low at $4,076.92. Buyers leaned against that dual support zone, and over the last three days, the price has rebounded sharply—rallying roughly 12.5% to today’s high of $4,602.
That high briefly pushed above the 100-day moving average at $4,597.22, but momentum could not be sustained, and the price has since rotated lower, currently trading near $4,537.
So the technical story is clear: support held at the 38.2% retracement and 200-day moving average, while resistance held near the 100-day moving average around $4,600.
What next?
On the downside, the $4,395 level is now key support, representing the post-high corrective low and a prior swing high from October 2025. Below that, the 2025 closing level at $4,317.95 remains an important downside target. Notably, yesterday’s low reached $4,306—just below that level—before buyers stepped back in.
Putting it all together, the market is now defined by clear borderlines:
- Resistance: $4,597–$4,600 (100-day moving average)
- Near-term support: $4,395 (swing level)
- Stronger support zone: $4,317–$4,395 (key swing area)
- Major support: $4,076–$4,083 (38.2% retracement / 200-day MA)
If buyers can push and stay above the 100-day moving average, the bias shifts back to the upside. If not, and price rotates back below $4,395, sellers will start to lean again with a run toward the lower support zone.
Is gold on fire or is the fire being extinguished? That is what is at stake as the price pays attention to he daily moving average levels (and other levels).
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
