We will have new projections in DecemberBut developments point to growth remaining fragileGeopolitical risks are increasingPotential changes in US trade policy will only add to the uncertaintyWhen one imposes tariffs, they have to be prepared for retaliation – which can start a vicious cycle
At the balance, the emphasis on a “fragile” economy and added downside risks to the economic outlook reaffirms another rate cut in December. For now, markets are pricing in roughly ~56% odds of a 25 bps move with the remainder tied to a 50 bps move.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
