The focus is of course the warmongers, not the data. Nevertheless it’s a busy data agenda.
We’ll get revised GDP from Japan, for Q4 2025. The preliminary reading for this was disappointing. In brief, from the day of the flash data:
Japan eked out weak Q4 growth, but momentum remained weak:
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Q4 GDP barely positive, rising 0.1% q/q and 0.2% annualised, well below expectations.
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Private consumption slowed, up 0.1% q/q amid persistent food price pressures.
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Capex underwhelmed, increasing just 0.2% versus forecasts of 0.8%.
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Exports fell 0.3%, with external demand contributing zero to overall growth.
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GDP deflator rose 3.4% y/y, highlighting ongoing inflation pressures.
Inflationary dynamics remained firm, with the GDP deflator rising 3.4% year-on-year, highlighting persistent price pressures even as real growth remains subdued.
The data suggest Japan has stabilised after a sharp contraction but is far from a strong recovery. For the Bank of Japan, the modest return to growth provides some reassurance as it continues policy normalisation, though the softness in private demand and investment signals that tightening will likely proceed cautiously.
Also from that day of the flash data:
Later in the session we’ll get trade data from China, for January-February 2026. The time is listed at 0300 GMT, but the actual data release is a little flexible around that time. Something to be aware of if you are waiting up for it.
The long Spring holiday / Lunar New Year period messes with this data. The data are typically combined for the first two months of the year to smooth distortions from the holiday.
Markets watching closely to see whether the country’s export momentum continues into 2026.
Analysts expect export growth likely accelerated, with shipments expected to rise around 7.1% year-on-year in U.S. dollar terms, up from 6.6% in December. The forecast would reinforce the view that China’s export machine remains resilient despite ongoing trade tensions with the United States and concerns about global overcapacity.
Much of that strength has been supported by diversification of export markets. Chinese firms have increasingly shifted shipments toward Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America, helping offset pressure from renewed U.S. tariffs and political scrutiny of China’s manufacturing dominance.
Imports are also expected to show a modest pickup, rising around 6.3% year-on-year, compared with 5.7% growth in December. However, the trade balance is still forecast to remain extremely large, with economists expecting a surplus of roughly $180 billion for January–February, above the $169 billion surplus recorded in the same period last year.
The data will also provide an early read on China’s growth outlook after Premier Li Qiang set a 2026 GDP target of 4.5–5%, slightly below last year’s goal. Weak domestic profitability and soft demand have kept policymakers reliant on exports as a key growth engine.
Markets will watch whether export strength continues to offset sluggish domestic activity and intensifying global trade frictions.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
