The ‘blackout’ policy from the Federal Reserve limits the extent to which Federal Open Market Committee participants and staff can speak publicly or grant interviews. The period begins the two Saturdays preceding a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and ends the Thursday following the decision (decisions are always on Wednesdays).
That was on the Saturday just passed, July 20.
Oftentimes, Federal Reserve officials will scheduled important speeches just before the blackout period begins in order to guide market participants about the upcoming meeting. In general, the Fed doesn’t like to surprise markets so officials will offer strong hints about what’s coming.
This month its all been about removing doubt over the July meeting, where officials haves trognly conveyed the information that there will be no change in rates. September is now viewed as a ‘live’ meeting and expectations are around 90% for a 25bp rate cut.
If Fed officials need to adjust market expectations between the start of the blackout and the decision, they may leak hints to the press; generally the Wall Street Journal.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
