Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin was on an episode of Odd Lots that was published earlier today. I’ve been listening to it this morning and still working my way through it.
Some headlines have hit:
Will take a ‘test and learn’ approach to rate cutsCurrent ‘low-hiring, low-firing’ approach companies now take to employment is unlikely to persistRisk is that firms will resort to layoffs if economy weakensDisinflation has spread beyond goods to the rest of the economy, boosting confidence it will continueI’m hearing that consumers are still spending but they’re choosingI’ve talked to hotel chains where every room is booked but the second they raise prices, no one will buyPrices are up, people are aware of it and people are adjustingPeople are trading downIt’s rare that people I talk with are planning layoffs, and that kind of thing takes 3 months to planI see a loosening labor market being driven by a lot more supplyThe data has come in a ‘very consistent manner’ in the past 3-4 months. Inflation is coming down. Labor market is loosening.I didn’t take that much out of the non-farm payrolls revisionsWhat’s different in the labor market is the increase in supply — people entering workforce and immigrationI think there is a lot of demand out there for housing once rates come down
“The phrase I have been using is that ‘people aren’t hiring, but they’re not firing’ and that’s just not likely a sustainable outcome. Either demand will continue and people will start hiring again or there will be layoffs,” he said.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
