Fed’s Barkin is on Bloomberg TV and says:
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Productivity and corporate margins
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2.8% productivity growth is still a solid number.
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Strong productivity is helping firms maintain steady margins, allowing companies to absorb some tariff-related costs.
Geopolitics and energy prices
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Too early to assess the economic implications of the Iran war.
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Gas prices still matter for consumer sentiment and can crowd out other spending.
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If gas prices remain elevated, they could add to inflation pressures, and the Fed will need to judge how persistent that impact might be.
Inflation outlook
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Recent inflation data has raised doubts about whether the Fed is finished fighting inflation.
Labor market and economic activity
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Recent employment data has been reassuring.
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Monetary policy remains modestly restrictive, but demand in the economy remains healthy.
Fed policy approach
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The Fed will continue to evaluate policy meeting by meeting.
Fed balance sheet
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Barkin instinctively supports a smaller Fed balance sheet, but only if it does not disrupt financial markets and the Fed can still maintain control of interest rates.
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Thomas Barkin is the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, a position he has held since January 2018. Prior to joining the Federal Reserve, he spent nearly three decades at McKinsey & Company, where he eventually served as the firm’s Chief Risk Officer. As Richmond Fed president, Barkin represents the Fifth Federal Reserve District, which includes Virginia, Maryland, the Carolinas, West Virginia, and Washington, D.C. He participates in Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings and contributes to discussions on U.S. monetary policy and the economic outlook.
Barkin is not a voting member of the FOMC in 2026, as the regional Fed presidents rotate voting rights each year. Although he participates in policy discussions, he does not have a vote this year. In terms of policy stance, Barkin is generally viewed as centrist with a mildly hawkish lean. He often emphasizes the importance of ensuring inflation returns sustainably to the Fed’s 2% target and tends to support a cautious, data-dependent approach before considering rate cuts. At the same time, he acknowledges risks to the labor market and the broader economy, which places him more in the middle of the policy spectrum rather than firmly in either the hawkish or dovish camp.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
