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Fed’s Kugler: Trade policy shifting but still likely to lead to higher prices and less GDP

  • It has become hard to judge the underlying growth of the economy
  • Labor market conditions mostly stable
  • Supported keeping rates stable at current restrictive level, Fed in a good position to deal with change in macro outlook

This is straight out of the Fed choir book. The market is priced for a 45% chance of a cut in July and 81 bps in the year ahead (down from 131 bps three weeks ago).

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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