Crude oil settles at $69.26Iran is preparing a major retaliatory strike – reportOctober non-farm payrolls preview by the numbers: Hurricane and strike effects in focusMawari Announces Node Sale to Bring Immersive Content to the WorldEuropean indices close lower. German DAX and France’s CAC down 1%UK Chancellor Reeves: Tax increases in budget were necessaryStarmer spokesman: We do not comment on market movementsBMO now thinks Bank of England likely to hold rates unchanged next weekGold prices fall more than $50The first look at Q4 from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is 2.7%Why you shouldn’t trade based on political pollsUK bond blow up: A preview of things to come in the US?Tony Vejseli, Figure Markets and GXD Labs Address Recent DevelopmentsTech downturn: Microsoft plummets as financials gainKickstart the FX trading day for Oct 31 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSDCanada August GDP 0.0% vs 0.0% expectedUS September PCE core inflation +0.3% vs +0.3% expectedUS initial jobless claims 216K vs 230K estimateUS, Employment cost for Q3 0.8% versus 0.9% estimateForexLive European FX news wrap: Yen firms in aftermath of BOJ decisionUS October Challenger layoffs 55.60k vs 72.82k prior
Markets:
Gold falls -$38 or -1.37% at $2748.99Crude oil is trading up close to $2.00 after reports that Iran is preparing for a major retaliatory strikeBitcoin is down close to -$2000 at $70,372. The price peaked at $73600 on Tuesday just short of the all time high at $73794 area. The buyers turned to sellers today on the failure to push to new highs.
IN the US debt market, yields are higher but off highs for the day:
US 2-year yields 4.162%, up 0.8 bpsUS 10 year yield 4.270%, +0.6 bps30 year yield 4.461%, down -1.7 bps
The major stock indices fell sharply led by the Nasdaq as the market reacted to Microsoft and Meta earnings (the weren’t that bad but the market was not hearing it) and are getting scared ahead of the elections next week. The US jobs report will also be released tomorrow and has traders anxious..
S&P 500 down -1.56%Nasdaq -2.46%Dow -0.64%
In the forex market, the USD was mixed:
Japanese Yen: -0.93%Swiss Franc: -0.33%Australian Dollar: -0.03%New Zealand Dollar:+0.03%Canadian Dollar: +0.08%Euro: -0.16%British Pound: +0.61%
The core PCE data today came in as expected month on month but due to revision, the year on year was 0.1% higher at 2.7% That was unchanged from last month. The headline PCE data was lower than last month at 2.1% versus a revised 2.3% (was 2.2%).
Always good on inflation is the employment cost data for the third quarter which came in at 0.8% for the month and 3.9% for 12 months. That’s down from 4.3% in September 2023. Wages and salary also came in at 3.9% compared to 4.6% a year ago.
Initial jobless claims today was stronger at 216K versus 230K estimate. Continuing claims did fall as well to 1.862M versus estimates of 1.885M. The employment statistics still seem to be strong. Tomorrow the US jobs report.
Below are the expectations:
Consensus estimate +113KEstimate range +0K (ABN AMRO) to +200K (DBS Bank)September was +254KPrivate consensus +90K versus +223K priorUnemployment rate consensus estimate 4.1% versus 4.1% priorPrior unrounded unemployment rate 4.0510%Prior participation rate 62.7%Prior underemployment U6 7.7%Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +4.0% versus +4.0% priorAvg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% versus +0.4% priorAvg weekly hours exp 34.2 versus 34.2 prior
Numbers released so far this month:
ADP report +233K versus +159K prior — best in a yearISM services employment not yet releasedISM manufacturing employment not yet releasedChallenger job cuts 55,597 versus 72,821 priorPhilly employment -2.2 vs +10.7 priorEmpire employment +4.7 vs +2.9 priorInitial jobless claims survey week 242K versus 259K prior
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
