- Major US indices close lower. S&P and NASDAQ indices never get out of negative territory
- OpenAI abandons plan to become a ‘for profit’ company
- Crude oil futures settle at $57.13
- Trump says he bets Canada’s Carney wants to make a deal in Tuesday visit
- US treasury auctions off $58 billion of three year notes at a high yield of 3.824%
- Treas Sec Bessent: Fed’s favorite inflation measure is down.
- Bessent: I think we are very close to some trade deals
- White House: No final decision on film tariffs have been made
- US rejects Japan request for full exemption from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs
- Bessent: Tariffs, tax cuts and deregulation are keys to drive long-term investment
- April ISM services 51.6 vs 50.2 expected
- US April S&P Global final services PMI 50.8 vs 51.4 prelim
- Canada April S&P Global services PMI 41.5 vs 41.2 prior
- Trump’s 100% Tariff on Foreign Movies: Impact on Entertainment Industry and NFLX Stock
- ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar remains soft, gold pushes up while oil slumps
The USD is ending the day down vs the major currency pairs. The exception was the USDCAD which is ending the day flat.
The biggest mover was the USDJPY with a fall of -0.83% on the day. The greenback fell -0.59% vs the CHF and -0.39% vs the AUD. The USD fell -0.17% vs both the EUR and the GBP.
Price action was up and down with the dollar lower bias.
The USDJPY moved down to the low of a swing area between 143.57 and 143.83. The price is below the 100 hour MA at 143.947, but above the 200 hour MA at 143.45. Both of those MAs will be barometers for the new trading day.
The AUDUSD moved above the 200 day MA in the Asian Pacific session at 0.6461 and extended up to 0.64936. The price did correct lower to retest the 200 day MA as the clock ticks to the close, but is holding above the key MA level. That MA will be a key barometer in the new trading day – staying above will have traders looking to extend above the high and the 0.6500 level. Move below, and disappointment on the failed break may start to sink in for some traders.
For both the EURUSD and the GBPUSD, they each had their shots above the 200 hour MA. Each shot missed.
For the EURUSD, the price moved above it’s 200 hour MA for the 2nd time in 2-days and each time momentum faded after a couple of hours of trading. The price of the EURUSD is closing the day below the 100-hour MA at 1.1330. The 200 hour MA is at 1.1348.
For the GBPUSD, it traded above its converged 100/200 hour MAs 1.33238 and failed. The price is trading at 1.3290 going into the close with the 100-hour MA now at 1.33138 and the 200-hour MA at 1.33238.
Fundamentally today, the ISM non-manufacturing came in stronger than expectations. New orders and employment were better, but so was the price data.
Below is a summary of the index and the key components
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ISM Services Index: 51.6
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Above expectations (50.2) and up from March’s 50.8
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Key Components:
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Prices Paid: 65.1 (↑ from 60.9) — indicates rising input costs
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New Orders: 52.3 (↑ from 50.4) — expansionary, stronger demand
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Employment: 49.0 (↑ from 46.2) — still contracting, but improving
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Business Activity: 53.7 (↓ from 55.9) — slower pace of growth
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Supplier Deliveries: 51.3 (↑ from 50.6) — slightly slower deliveries
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Inventories: 53.4 (↑ from 50.3) — stockpiling increased
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Backlog of Orders: 48.0 (↑ from 47.4) — still contracting
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New Export Orders: 48.6 (↑ from 45.8) — export demand improving but still below 50
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Imports: 44.3 (↓ from 52.6) — sharp drop, contractionary
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Inventory Sentiment: 56.1 (↓ from 56.6) — still elevated, but slightly less
The S&P index snapped a 9-day win streak with a modest decline of 36.29 points are -0.64% at 5650.38. The NASDAQ and Dow industrial average also fell with the NASDAQ falling -0.74% and the Dow falling -0.24%. European indices were mixed with the German DAX up 1.12% in the UK’s FTSE 100 up 1.17%. The France’s CAC was down -0.55%.
Oil prices fell, with WTI crude settling down $1.16 at $57.13 per barrel, but the decline could have been worse given the circumstances. Over the weekend, OPEC+ announced an increase in output and signaled it would continue raising production until Kazakhstan and Iraq comply with curbing excess supply. Despite the bearish headline, the market held above the April low of $55.12, offering a modest sign of resilience. A move below that level, however, could see further liquidation as dip buyers hold onto a short leash near lows for the year.
In other markets:
- Gold is is up $92 or 2.85% at $3332.88.
- Silver rose $0.47 or 1.50% at $32.47
- Bitcoin is little changed at $94276
In the US debt market today yields are higher on the day:
- 2 year yield is up 1.2 basis points at 3.834%
- 5 year yield is up 2.4 basis points at 3.941%
- 10 year yield is up 3.9 basis points at 4.347%
- 30 year is up 5.0 basis points at 4.839%
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
