- US initial jobless claims 248K versus 240K estimate
- US May PPI +2.6% y/y vs +2.6% expected
- U.S. Treasury sells $22 billion a 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.844%
- Trump signals a climb-down on immigration enforcement
- Trump: I don’t like that oil prices have gone up
- Trump: I would love to avoid a conflict with Iran
- More Trump: I want to have an agreement with Iran
- Bessent: EU has been very “intractable” in trade talks
- Trump: Auto tariffs may go up in the not to distant future
- Federal Reserve says US household net worth fell to $169.3 trillion in Q1 2025
- ECB’s de Guindos: Recent developments may well have a dampening impact on growth
- Iran President: We will continue enrichment
- A survivor somehow walked away from the Air India plane crash
Markets:
- Gold up $35 to $3388
- WTI crude oil down 4-cents to $68.11
- US 10-year yields down 5.7 bps to 4.36%
- S&P 500 up 0.2%
- CHF leads, USD lags
The US dollar took a dive on Thursday as some levels were knocked out and the bad news continued to mount. The catalyst on the day was a higher-than-expected initial jobless claims report for the third week in a row, combined with a lower PPI reading. In the aftermath of that, the euro rose to 1.1631, which is the highest in three-and-a-half years.
Now those data points alone weren’t the sole source of US dollar selling. It kicked off earlier on signs the US and Iran could be headed for war. In addition, this week’s news on the US-China trade war has been neutral, at best. Two days of negotiations have seemingly only led to an agreement to abide by the previous Geneva agreement.
Finally, some momentum was involved as the euro cracked 1.1500 yesterday, which was previously a tough line to get above. That has been followed on with bids/stops.
The dollar selling was broad as cable also rose to the highest since 2022, though it only briefly rose above the June 4 high. USD/CAD fell to the lowest since October as signs continue to mount that the US and Canada are working hard on a trade deal.
Right across the board the US dollar was soft and it was underscored by falling yields right across the curve. That was helped along by a strong 30-year Treasury auction.
Friday features more US consumer sentiment data but that’s hardly a market mover these days. Instead, we will focus on Iran and the trade war.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
