Bank of England Pill: Uncertainty around UK wage data is unlikely to disappear soonBOE’s Pill: Services and wages continue to point to uncomfortable strength in inflationDay two on Capitol Hill: Fed’s Powell says inflation down but still too highUS May wholesale sales +0.4% vs +0.1% expectedUS treasury sells $39 billion of 10 year notes at a yield of 4.276%Senators propose ban on congressional stock tradingApple to ship 10% more iPhones in 2024NBC’s Lester Holt will interview Biden on MondayAtlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 rises to 2.0% from 1.5% previouslyUS EIA Crude oil inventory -3.443M vs -1.333M estimateOPEC leaves world oil demand forecasts unchanged
Markets:
WTI crude oil up $0.93 to $82.35US 10-year yields down 1.8 bps to 4.28%Gold up $8 to $2371GBP leads, NZD lagsS&P 500 up 1.0% to record 5633
In some ways the market makes sense and in other ways it doesn’t. The New Zealand dollar was the laggard today and that was a straightforward decline on a dovish RBNZ. The market had priced in something that aligned more-closely with the RBA but it looks like they’re willing to cut sooner, with October now priced at 71% even as RBA pricing is 40% for a hike in November.
Another move that was totally sensible was in the pound as it rose on some hawkish comments from the Bank of England chief economist. Again, he highlighted that the UK is facing some unique issues around wage growth and sticky inflation. The market has fallen in-and-out of that mode in the past few months but ultimately it will go where the decision-makers take it. Today that was a 60 pip rally in GBP that helped to drag the euro along with it.
USD/JPY bids may have fuelled by risk sentiment as that pair rose 43 pips to 161.73 but otherwise there wasn’t a strong sense in FX that equities were up strongly.
That’s where this market gets more-difficult. The 1% move in the S&P 500 was the first one (in either direction) in six weeks and it comes despite the week’s headline risk tomorrow with CPI. The day didn’t start out with much and futures were flat but the steady buying in stocks began to add up, including a 7 day rally in Apple shares and a fresh jump in Nvidia.
Time will tell whether that was a foolish move ahead of CPI but it may also speak to a market that’s moved beyond worries about inflation.
A notable divergence those was in fixed income where the Treasury auction was strong and yields have fallen in 5 of the past 6 days. The VIX also rose 2.8% today in a sign that someone out there is looking for protection.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
