US inflation (PCE) data due Friday – here are the critical ranges to watchUS military is building infrastructure in northern Australia – wary of a China crisisBank of Japan meet next week, a 0.1% rate hike is around 65% pricedThe RBNZ’s guide for members of its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) – link to full textGoldman Sachs forecast Friday’s data, June Core PCE Price Index at 0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/yPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1270 (vs. estimate at 7.2229)Singapore central bank says no change to S$NEER policy band, as expectedGoldman Sachs say still forecast a Brent range of USD75 – 90Japan’s Kanda says told G20 that excessive FX volatility has negative impact on economyTokyo area July inflation data: Headline 2.2% y/y (prior 2.3%)Citi outline bearish and bullish risks for oil under TrumpBank of America says strong economic growth in the US means the FOMC ‘can afford to wait’Morgan Stanley says stock rotation turned in deleveraging, eye US$45bn to sellNew Zealand July consumer confidence 87.9 (prior 83.2)US inflation data due on Friday – upside risksUK fin min Reeves promises to fix the ‘fiscal mess’Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 25 Jul:The USDJPY falls to lowest level since May,&bouncesDecline in US Stocks Continues, Tech Giants Witness Major LossesYellen says market should determine exchange ratesEURUSD keeping the short term bearish bias heading toward the new day.Trade ideas thread – Friday, 26 July, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
Yen
crosses still had some gyration but nothing like what we saw earlier
this week. USD/JPY traded early to lows under 153.50, recovered to
above 154.00 before dipping back to lows and, as I update, is sitting
under 154.00. Kanda made some comments, nothing dramatic – in the
bullets above.
EUR,
AUD, GBP, and gold all rallied against the US dollar (ranges were not
large). GBP, NZD and CAD were mainly sideways. The People’s Bank of
China set the CNY a little stronger at its reference rate today.
News
flow was very light. In US politics Trump, through his campaign team,
has refused to debate Harris until she becomes the official nominee.
This didn’t stop the Biden / Trump debate, so it’s a bit of a
mystery.
In
data we had an improved consumer confidence survey from New Zealand,
but still in pessimistic territory. Tokyo inflation data was
mixed, not sending conclusive signals on any wage-push inflation the
BoJ is keen to see.
AUD not too convincing, but some stability.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
