Downside risk for US employment, magnitude of September Fed interest rate cut in questionChina’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) says PPI deflation will narrow in months aheadUBS says doesn’t see reason for 50bp Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate cut in SeptChina July data: Retail sales +2.7% y/y (expected +2.6). Industrial production +5.1% y/yJapan’s Economy minister Shindo says wages and income will improveTD asks if the King USD will maintain its reign?China House Prices for July 2024 -0.7% m/m and -4.9% y/yAUD/USD marked higher after the strong employment reportAustralian July unemployment rate 4.2% (vs. 4.1% expected)Australian Inflation Expectations for August 2024 have jumped from JulyNo Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation from the People’s Bank of China todayPBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1399 (vs. estimate at 7.1461)Barclays forecast the next Bank of Japan rate hike in January 2025 (prior April 2025)Japan Q2 GDP +0.8% q/q (vs. +0.5% expected)RBNZ Governor Orr trimming monetary policy restraint is appropriate nowMorgan Stanley flag potential 50bp Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Septembr rate cutSurvey shows less than a quarter of Japanese firms approve of the recent yen interventionUS Vice President Harris will lay out her economic agenda in a speech on FridayJP Morgan says the Fed has a green light for a 50bp rate cut in Sep. Here’s the trigger.New Zealand retail sales data -0.1% m/m and -4.9% y/yReserve Bank New Zealand Governor Orr: Definitely moving the right direction on inflationFed’s Goolsbee says he is growing more concerned about employmentNomura say around 150 is now the ceiling for USD/JPY. Forecast a BOJ rate hike in DecemberShares of Ulta Beauty surge after Warren Buffett reveals stakeForexlive Americas FX news wrap: CPI continues to coolTrade ideas thread – Thursday, 15 August, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
Reserve
Bank
of New Zealand Governor Orr spoke to various media, further conveying
his message
that the Bank
intends to lower
interest rates toward a more neutral setting at a measured pace. The
RBNZ began its easing cycle on Wednesday, Orr was out selling it
today again. The New Zealand dollar hasn’t done a lot on the
session. It dipped but bounced back with the rising AUD (more to come
on this)
From
Japan we had data for Q2 GDP, showing the economy expanded by a much
faster-than-expected annualised 3.1% in the quarter. It rebounded
from the contraction in Q1. Consumption grew strongly. The Bank of
Japan will be eyeing this as support for its rate hike cycle. The yen
weakened a little but is back to mid range and thereabouts as I post.
Australia’s
economy added 58,200 jobs (full-time employment rocketed 60,500, for
a third month of strong gains) in July after the 52.2K rise in June.
Participation rose to a record high, while the unemployment rate
ticked up a little to 4.2%. AUD/USD has risen from pre-data lows of
under 0.6575 to 0.6620+ as I post.
The
regular People’s Bank of China Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF)
operation did not take place today. Its been scheduled for August 26.
The Bank added in nearly 600bn yuan in a 7-day reverse repo, which
more than covers the 401bn yuan of MLF maturing. See bullets above
for more info if needed.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
