- Federal Reserve speakers Friday include Bostic, Daly, and Goolsbee
- RBNZ assistant governor Silk: Interest rates are in 2.5% – 3.5% neutral band
- US plans to ramp up weapons sales to Taiwan – exceeding Trump’s first term
- US plan for Gaza ceasefire to be guaranteed by Trump
- China expected to announce ‘major financial polices’ on June 18 and 19, 2025
- ECB’s Panetta is speaking on Friday
- Trump will be speaking on Friday, on Musk at 1.30pm, then on US Steel after markets close
- Australian April building permits -5.7% m/m (expected +3.1%)
- Australian April 2025 retail sales -0.1% m/m (expected +0.3%)
- Australia Private Sector Credit April 2025 +0.7% m/m (expected +0.5%, prior +0.5%)
- Japan economy minister Akazawa: Will take appropriate actions re tariffs
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1848 (vs. estimate at 7.1859)
- Russia transferred 1.8 tons of gold bars (approx US$104 mn) to Iran as payment for drones
- Japan govt official says several companies say US tariffs caused delay shipment in April
- Fed’s Logan says monetary policy is in a good place for now
- BoJ Governor Ueda aware of of firm’s aggressive price, wage setting behaviour continuing
- Japan April industrial production -0.9% m/m (expected -1.4%)
- Japan April retail sales +3.3% y/y (+3.1% expected)
- Tokyo May 2025 headline CPI +3.4% y/y (3.4% expected)
- Japan April unemployment rate 2.5% (expected 2.5%, prior 2.5%)
- Fed’s Daly: Need modestly or moderately restrictive policy to keep bringing inflation down
- China may boost its Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) facility
- New Zealand building permits -15.6% m/m in April (prior +10.7)
- Bloomberg: Japanese life insurers cut protection against stronger yen to fresh 14-year low
- Us Treas Sec Bessent admits that talks with China are a bit stalled
- ICYMI: Japan PM Ishiba, Trump spoke on Thursday – “meaningful” talks
- New Zealand May consumer confidence plunges to 92.9 (prior 98.3)
- ICYMI: Energy minister says oil prices above $70 / $75 /barrel likely suits all countries
- BoE Gov Bailey says taking gradual, careful approach as the economy is hard to read
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 29 May: Tariffs off and on again on court rulings
- ICYMI: China & Japan move closer on trade – China steps to resume Japanese seafood imports
- Dell beats on revenue as AI server demand surges, but EPS misses
- Fed’s Daly says workers are worried about inflation
- Trade ideas thread – Friday, 30 May, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
Bessent says US-China talks ‘stalled,’ pushes for Trump-Xi call
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said trade talks with China are “a bit stalled” and suggested that a call between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping may be needed to break the impasse. In an interview Thursday, Bessent emphasised the importance of direct leader-level engagement given the scope and complexity of the negotiations. He recently visited Switzerland for discussions that helped both sides step back from imposing over 100% tariffs on each other’s goods, and he expects more talks with Chinese officials in the coming weeks.
Bessent’s ‘stalled’ remark lent a bid to the yne, USD/JPY dribbled lower to circa 143.80. It fell further a little later on the CPI data.
Tokyo inflation surprises to the upside
Tokyo’s CPI data for May showed both core and core-core inflation exceeding expectations:
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Core CPI (excluding fresh food) rose 3.6% y/y (vs. 3.5% expected), up from 3.4% in April — the highest since January 2023.
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Core-core CPI (ex. fresh food and energy) increased to 3.3% y/y (vs. 3.2% expected), its highest since January 2024.
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Headline CPI held steady at 3.4% y/y.
The core-core reading — closely watched by the Bank of Japan — remains well above the 2% target, strengthening the case for further policy adjustment. JPY caught a small bid on the data, with USD/JPY dropping to as low as 143.50 before bouncing back toward 144.00.
Japan also held a 2-year JGB auction during the session, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.77 (prev. 3.58). The average yield was 0.752% (prev. 0.691%).
Fedspeak
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San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly reiterated that policy is in a “good place.” She expects inflation to moderate and sees room for two rate cuts in 2025 but noted businesses are still assessing the impact of Trump’s policies: “As they wait to see, we wait to see.”
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Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan echoed similar sentiments, noting the labour market remains strong and inflation is gradually trending toward target. She said risks to the Fed’s policy goals are “more or less balanced.” Logan did =not give guidance on expected rate cuts like Daly did.
Australia very weak retail sales
Australia’s April retail sales were surprisingly weak:
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-0.1% m/m (vs. +0.3% expected)
The softness comes despite a boost from the Easter/Anzac holiday period and Queensland’s rebound from Cyclone Alfred. The data suggests consumers remain cautious, supporting the case for further RBA rate cuts.
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The USD ticked modestly higher across the majors. JPY outperformed on stronger inflation data, while AUD slipped on weak domestic retail sales.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
