OIL:
- Barclays cut Brent crude price outlook, citing faster-than-expected output hikes by OPEC+
- Oil price futures gap lower to open the week’s trade – OPEC+ supply hike cited
An impossible move for the Taiwan dollar, that happened anyway!
- MUFG on the Taiwan dollar move a “19-standard-deviation event”
- Surging TWD fuelling revaluation talk
Other:
- Goldman Sachs sees Chinese exports declining through 2025, 2026
- Vietnam PM says U.S. tariffs negatively affect global economy
- Australian PM Albanese won the weekend election, says spoke to Trump after
- Weekend elections – Australia, Singapore, Romania
- Trump interview – full transcript – Trump’s opinion on how many toys kids should have
- Australia job ads for April +0.5% m/m (prior +0.4%)
- US dollar losing ground in holiday-thinned Asia trade
- Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge, April 2025: 0.6% m/m (prior 0.7%) & 3.3% y/y (prior 2.8%)
- Trump’s retreat on China tariffs ICYMI – lower tariffs “At some point”
- Japanese, South Korean, Hong Kong and Chinese markets are closed today for holidays
- RBNZ flags financial stability risks from rapid AI adoption
- Trump says he has no plans to speak with Xi this week
- Trump announces more tariffs – plans 100% tariff on all movies produced overseas
- Bessent’s weekend Wall Street Journal op-ed – talking points
- Australian S&P Global Services PMI for April 2025, final reading 51.0 (prior 51.6)
- Buffett confirms Greg Abel will take over as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway at the end of 2025
- Eastern Europe – Romania’s Simion leads presidential race, Dan edges into runoff spot
- Trump’s clearest Greenland threat yet, won’t rule out military action against NATO ally
- Japan (further) walks back Treasury threat, says no plan to use holdings as trade leverage
- FT says Chinese exporters ‘washing’ products in 3rd countries to avoid Trump tariffs
- Weekend – Trump said he won’t remove Powell before his term ends in May 2026
- Economic calendar in Asia Monday, May 5, 2025 – data due from Australia and Singapore
- Trade ideas thread – Monday, 5 May, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
- Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 05 May 2025
- Newsquawk Week Ahead: FOMC, BoE, US ISM Services PMI, Canada jobs and China trade
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US jobs continue to support solid employment
Oil:
OPEC+ agreed over the weekend to raise output by another 411,000 barrels per day in June, repeating May’s surprise hike. This latest move is nearly triple some early expectations and marks the second straight month of accelerated supply increases. I’ve grouped the OPEC+ posts above — be sure to read the final one, which offers a counterpoint to the prevailing market narrative, even if it’s not being fully priced in yet.
→ Oil prices gapped lower as trading reopened for the week.
Trump’s Headlines:
The U.S. President made multiple headlines over the weekend:
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Tariffs with China will come lower eventually
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Plans to impose a 100% tariff on foreign-made movies (see post above).
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Confirmed he won’t remove Fed Chair Powell before his term ends.
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Said he has no plans to speak with Xi Jinping this week.
FX – Taiwan Dollar and Regional Moves:
The Taiwan dollar was again the standout mover, following its historic surge on Friday. MUFG described that move as a 19-standard deviation event — statistically implausible under normal market models, and yet… here we are. (I’ve grouped the TWD posts; the second one offers a good breakdown of why such moves can occur in FX, despite the math.)
TWD surged again today, driven by speculation of revaluation pressure.
This theme isn’t confined to Taiwan. There’s growing chatter that some Asian countries may be considering currency revaluation as a strategic lever in tariff negotiations — a stronger currency makes exports more expensive, potentially addressing U.S. complaints. Supporting the theory:
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The offshore yuan (still trading despite China’s holiday) hit its strongest level since November.
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The Hong Kong dollar again touched the strong end of its permitted trading band.
Gold:
Gold prices firmed during Asian trade but have since given back some gains.
***
Oil:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
