Federal Reserve speeches on Wednesday from Cook, Collins, Barr, BowmanBarclays forecast GBP/USD to 1.30 and EUR/GBP to 0.80 over the coming quartersKyle Bass says China setting up for a Taiwan invasionChinese mutual fund houses cutting exchange-traded fund (ETF) feesJapan’s exports in October rebounded from a 43-month low – recapEuropean Central Bank President Lagarde speaking Wednesday + Escriva & de GuindosBank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden speaking WednesdayAustralia’s Fiscal Challenges: Treasurer Chalmers’ Economic UpdateNomura flag higher tariffs, weaker global demand, more policy uncertainty to weigh on AsiaICYMI – China left benchmark lending rates unchanged for November, as expectedPBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1935 (vs. estimate at 7.2386)“Yen Weakens as Japan’s Verbal Warnings Appear to Be Losing Effectiveness”People’s Bank of China leaves its interest rates unchanged, as expectedJP Morgan 2025 US outlook – unemployment rise, growth downshift, Core PCE infl still > 2%UK – Official statistics painting an overly pessimistic picture of labour marketAustralian Leading Index first clear ‘above-trend’ result since November 2023Japan October trade balance -461bn yen (expected -360bn yen)Former Fed Reserve Gov Warsh for Treasury Secretary? On irresponsible government spendingUS federal govmt debt to rocket to 122% of GDP – higher volatility, higher interest ratesTrump said to consider Crypto lawyer Teresa Goody Guillén to lead SEC ChairDespite the trend higher in the US 10 year Treasury yield stocks have further 2024 upsideICYMI – Chinese vessel spotted where Baltic Sea cables were severedForexlive Americas FX news wrap 19 Nov: CAD moves higher w/higher CPI. USD is mixed.Oil – private survey of inventory shows a large headline crude oil build vs expectationsUS broader indices close higher. Dow industrial average moves lower.Fed’s Barr speaking, doesn’t comment on the economy or monetary policyTrade ideas thread – Wednesday, 20 November, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
USD/JPY
ticked net higher during the session, breaching above 155.00 again.
News flow from Japan was quiet with, most notably, nothing in the way
of verbal intervention from Japanese authorities to slow the yen’s fall.
From
the data calendar we had Japanese trade data for October. These
showed a rise for exports y/y during the month, rebounding from a
43-month low in September.
Blackstone is near agreement to buy a Tokyo office complex. The deal is worth around 400bn yen (approximately 2.6bn USD) , which would be one of the most expensive real estate transactions in Japan.
There
was activity in China. China’s unchanged monthly loan prime rate
(LPR) fixings left the one-year LPR at 3.1%, and the five-year at
3.6%, after 25 bp cuts to each last month. The on-hold decisions were
a unanimous expectation.
USD/CNH
climbed after the People’s Bank of China set the daily USD/CNY
reference rate about 450 points lower than the neutral estimate of
7.2385. The PBoC is seeking to prop up the yuan (damping USD/CNY) in
this way but markets are taking it lower regardless (against the super USD at least!).Fees
for ETF were cut, another effort to support stock markets.
***
Major
FX tracked limited ranges with some USD weakness early (EUR, GBP,
AUD, NZD, CAD all higher before retracing).
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
