Federal Reserve speakers on Thursday include Logan, Daly, BowmanCanada – Trudeau holds meeting with Mark Carney to join governmentChinese Communist Party news conference called for July 19 – Third Plenum briefingBank of England speaker Thursday on financial stabilityAustralian data: Q2 business survey shows conditions eased and forward indicators softenedAustralian June unemployment rate 4.1% (vs. 4.0% expected)PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1285 (vs. estimate at 7.2587)Former Bank of Japan Exec Director says Bank of Japan unlikely to raise rates this monthSome USD/JPY option expiries to be aware of for 10am NY time todayJapan data – June exports +5.4% y/y (expected 6.4%) & imports +3.2% y/y (expected 9.3%)European Central Bank monetary policy decision due today – on hold widely expectedBank of America’s global fund manager survey – most expect first Fed rate cut in SeptemberUS President Biden has CovidJP Morgan on oil – wary of diminished incentivization driving a spike to US $100 / barrelGoldman Sachs – Global hedge funds reducing exposure to US stocks for 5 days in a rowICYMI – Fed’s Beige Book eyes growth slowing, consumers tightening beltsUBS expect the Federal Reserve to cut in September, say get into attractive yield nowForexlive Americas FX news wrap: Nasdaq suffers worst drop since 2022. USD/JPY pressuredTrade ideas thread – Thursday, 18 July, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
USD/JPY
was sold off in the Tokyo morning to lows under 155.50. There were no
fresh obvious catalysts to trigger the moves, although we did have
trade data for June published (not generally a market-mover). The
drop was attributed to an underlying fear of further Bank of Japan
intervention, the potential for a rate hike at the July meeting or at
least larger trimming of bond buys than is expected, and a run on
stops under the round number 156.00. There was some talk of
intervention but volumes remained light, arguing against
intervention. I also noted that an intervention effort would seem to
be not the way the BOJ is operating right now:
the
BoJ recently slammed yen crosses after US data, at a time when
USD/JPY was already fallingthe
BoJ tends not to intervene in times of deep and thick liquidity, like
with Tokyo markets fully operating
From
Australia today we had the latest employment report. It was another
solid report, jobs added were more than double the central estimate.
The unemployment rate ticked up by 0.1%, with an increase in
participation also. The jobless rate remains not too far from
five-decade lows. AUD/USD popped a few points higher after the data
and managed to sustain the small rise as I post.
Apart
from the yen major FX was subdued.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
