China trade data dribbling out: YTD USD denominated exports +3.6% y/y, imports +2%Westpac reiterate bullish view on AUD/USDJPMorgan forecasts a crypto market recovery beginning in AugustJapan finance minister Suzuki says rapid FX moves are undesirableJapan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi says he has no comment on FX interventionPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1315 (vs. estimate at 7.2514)PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2514 – Reuters estimateFitch on the Fed – will need to see similar CPI results on the months ahead before cuttingAustralian authorities arrested a Russian-born married couple on espionage chargesUSD/JPY update, having a Freaky FridaySingapore Q2 GDP +2.9% y/y (expected +2.7%)USD/JPY wild swings continue, back above 159.30Biden news conference – taking questionsUSD/JPY smashed lower, back under 158.50 – Another round of JPY interventionJapan’s Kanda says recent yen moves are somewhat rapidGoldman Sachs says the US equity market is on “correction watch”New Zealand Card Sales for June -0.6% m/m (prior -1.2%)New Zealand June Manufacturing PMI 41.1 (prior 47.2)The one word Goldman Sachs response to the US June CPI print” “Pivotal”NATO allies are discussing reclaiming some Chinese-owned infrastructure in EuropeHere’s another forecast for a September Federal Reserve rate cutMore on the JP Morgan September Fed rate cut call, if you can make any sense of itFed’s Goolsbee on US CPI report – “This is what a path to 2% inflation looks like’ICYMI – the new angle Japan is taking on yen interventionForexlive Americas FX news wrap: CPI cools, Japan intervenesTrade ideas thread – Friday, 12 July, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
Big
moves continued for USD/JPY and yen crosses in the Asian morning
today. USD/JPY rose above 159.40 before getting slammed down to lows
under 157.80. As you’d suspect this was Bank of Japan intervention,
this time ‘rate checks’ in EUR/JPY. If you are unfamiliar with
what rate checks involve, I wrote a quick explainer here (its
just
a paragraph):
USD/JPY update, having a Freaky Friday
The
swings continued, a surge back up to 159.30 or so, then down toward
158.00 again before recovering to be around 159.25 as I post.
Japanese
officials were coy, not confirming the intervention, but there was
enough market confirmation about. The moves in Asia from Japan come after the
intervention on (US) Thursday following the US CPI data. Japanese
authorities leant with the momentum, evidenced by the surge in
volumes. EBS volumes in just the few hours after the CPI were
reported around 5x higher than average day’s volumes.
There
was little else of note during the session. Data from New Zealand was
awful, the June manufacturing PMI hit its third lowest value for a
non-COVID lockdown month, and recorded 15 months in contraction. The
data for retail sales for the same month was also poor.
From
China we June trade figures. Imports
unexpectedly dropped, exports
beat.
US
politics featured again. US President Biden spoke
after the NATA summit. There are recordings all over the place, of
course, so you’ll be able to see and hear the gaffes, mumblings and
slurred comments. I’m not being mean to the man, check out the
coverage. When he first messed up in the debate a couple of weeks
ago US markets
responded to the
prospect of a Trump Presidency firming
in the betting. The impact on financial markets today
seemed
barely discernible.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
