Goldman Sachs with a view on the euro, running ‘tariff’ scenarios for the US election outcome:
if the Republican party win the presidency and Congress could lead to higher tariffs 10% U.S. tariff on all imports20% on Chinese productstax cutswould likely push up inflationwould likely lead to Federal Reserve interest rate rises, to US rates much higher than in the EUcould cause the US dollar to rise sharply and euro to drop by up to 10%
GS also run a scenario on a narrower trade war, in which Trump only imposes further tariffs on China, could see the euro fall by around 3%.
GS on a Democratic sweep or divided Democratic government:
likely result in some initial dollar downside
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
