Goldman Sachs sees Chinese exports declining through 2025, 2026

Goldman Sachs expects China’s export volumes to contract by 5% in both 2025 and 2026, citing mounting U.S. tariffs and strained trade relations.

In a recent note, the bank’s analysts said, “Reaching a near-term deal is very difficult, and the substantial increase in U.S. tariffs on China is expected to significantly weigh on Chinese exports.”

While some offset may come from trade re-routing through Southeast Asia, Goldman also forecasts a modest drop in China’s goods trade surplus — falling to 3.7% of GDP in 2025, from 4.0% in 2024.

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Earlier:

• FT says Chinese exporters ‘washing’ products in 3rd countries to avoid Trump tariffs

Offshore yuan has jumped higher today (China is on holiday but CNH continue to trade)

Catalyst:

• Surging TWD fuelling revaluation talk
• MUFG on the Taiwan dollar move a “19-standard-deviation event”

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.