- Fed: 46 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
- ECB: 25 bps (87% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
- BoE: 40 bps (94% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
- BoC: 27 bps (78% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
- RBA: 71 bps (77% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
- RBNZ: 29 bps (69% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
- SNB: 46 bps (73% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
*for the SNB, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut
Rate hikes by year-end
- BoJ: 17 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
From the last update, we saw more of a hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations following the higher than expected NFP and less dovish that expected central banks decisions.
Most central banks will now want to see how the economic data evolves throughout the summer before deciding on the next policy move.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
