- Recap: BOJ’s Ueda signals more rate hikes as wage–price cycle strengthens
- Bitcoin rises as PwC leans into crypto on US regulatory shift
- ICYMI: China front-loads 2026 growth with US$42bn infrastructure project rollout
- Nomura warns China EV demand to cool as subsidy policy tightens
- BOJ’s Ueda signals further rate hikes as wage–price cycle strengthens
- Economists warn sticky inflation may force RBA back into rate hikes in 2026
- China Rating Dog December 2025 Services PMI 52.0 (expected 52.0, prior 52.1)
- Gold and silver on fire in Asia trade, Monday, January 5, 2026
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0230 (vs. estimate at 6..9952)
- Trump claims control of Venezuela, warns Colombia and Mexico could be next
- Japan’s Final December manufacturing PMI 50.0 (vs. preliminary 49.7, prior 48.7)
- PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.9952 – Reuters estimate
- Yen doing what it does best … ****ing the bed again. USD/JPY back above 157.00.
- Venezuela – Goldman sees 2026 Brent at $56 & WTI at $52, flags longer-term downside risks
- Globex is open. Oil prices down following Trump’s kidnapping of Maduro.
- Fed’s Paulson signals patience on rate cuts amid economic reassessment
- OPEC+ holds output steady as geopolitical tensions rise
- Happy New Year, especially to Venezuelans! Monday early FX rates guide
- Newsquawk Week Ahead: US and Canada jobs, ISM PMIs, EZ Inflation, and Fed Chair pick (TBC)
- US attacks Venezuela, captures President Maduro
Summary:
-
Oil volatile: Crude swung sharply as ample global supply offset rising geopolitical risk; early losses reversed before prices drifted back to finish modestly lower.
-
Venezuela escalation: Trump threatened further action, claimed US control of Venezuela, pushed for US oil company access and floated potential moves against Colombia, Iran and India.
-
OPEC+ steady: Output held unchanged, reinforcing the view that markets remain well supplied despite political risk.
-
Asia data mixed: Japan’s manufacturing PMI returned to neutral as output stabilised, while China’s services PMI slowed for a fourth month amid weak exports and job cuts.
-
Central bank signal: BOJ Governor Ueda reaffirmed the likelihood of further rate hikes as confidence grows in a sustained wage–price cycle.
-
Equities higher: China’s Shanghai Composite topped 4,000, while Japanese stocks jumped nearly 3% led by heavy industry and semiconductors.
-
FX and havens: The US dollar strengthened broadly; gold and silver surged on safe-haven demand.
-
Crypto bid: Bitcoin rose as PwC signalled deeper engagement in crypto, citing clearer US regulation under the GENIUS Act.
It was a volatile session for oil markets, with prices swinging sharply as traders weighed ample global supply against a fast-moving geopolitical backdrop.
Crude initially dropped lower in Sunday evening Globex trade, with Brent slipping toward $60 a barrel and WTI easing below $57. The market largely took the US seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in stride after officials confirmed there had been no disruption to production or refining at state oil company PDVSA. Sentiment was further weighed by OPEC+ holding output steady, with analysts noting that plentiful global supply leaves the market well insulated against any near-term interruption to Venezuelan exports.
That early dip was short-lived. Prices rebounded above opening levels as geopolitical headlines gathered pace, only to fade again later in the session. As I post, oil has drifted back to trade modestly lower on the day.
Political risk continued to build. Speaking aboard Air Force One, US President Donald Trump escalated rhetoric, threatening further attacks on Venezuela and asserting that the US now has “total access” to the country’s resources, saying “we’re in charge” and that Washington intends to “run everything.” Trump said he wants US oil companies allowed into Venezuela, signalled openness to deploying US troops on the ground, hinted at possible military action against Colombia, threatened strikes on Iran, and warned he could raise tariffs on India if it does not cooperate on restricting Russian oil flows.
Away from geopolitics, fresh data from Asia showed mixed momentum. Japan’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.0 in December, ending a five-month contraction as new orders fell more slowly and output stabilised. Employment improved, though input costs surged at the fastest pace since April, partly reflecting yen weakness. China’s services PMI eased to 52.0, marking the fourth straight monthly slowdown, with softer export demand and continued job cuts offset by improving business confidence into 2026.
On the policy front, Governor Ueda said the Bank of Japan is likely to keep raising interest rates if growth and inflation evolve as forecast, citing confidence in a sustained wage–price cycle as Japan exits its deflationary era.
Equities were active across the region. China’s Shanghai Composite Index pushed above 4,000, rising to its highest level since November, while Japanese stocks jumped nearly 3%, led by heavy industry and semiconductor names.
FX markets reflected a firmer US dollar, with the euro, sterling, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and yen all weaker. Gold and silver surged on safe-haven demand as geopolitical risks intensified. Bitcoin also moved higher, supported by PwC signalling it will lean into crypto activity amid clearer US regulation under the GENIUS Act, reinforcing institutional confidence in digital assets.
Asia-Pac
stocks:
- Japan
(Nikkei 225) +2.75% - Hong
Kong (Hang Seng) -0.08% - Shanghai
Composite +1.07% - Australia
(S&P/ASX 200) +0.08%
DXY is the USD index, higher here today:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
