Today is now worse than Liberation Day for Australian stock markets.
The ASX 200 is down 4.3%, breaking the April 7, 2025 drop of 4.2%. In March 2020, it had drops of 9.7% and 7.4% which were the worst this decade.
With today’s drop, the index is back to November levels and it it falls below those, it will be back to May 2025 levels. That’s despite a huge spike in gold prices.
Australia is a major LNG exporter but an importer of oil and the spike in crude prices today is the largest one-day gain ever. That could complicate RBA efforts to create a soft landing in the housing market and may force faster rate hikes.
Globally, it’s a rough day everywhere:
- The Korean Kospi hit a circuit breaker after falling 8%
- Japan’s Nikkei is down 7.4%
- S&P 500 futures are down 2.3%
- Nasdaq futures down 3%
I have a hard time believing the White House will be able to stand the pressure of higher oil prices through this coming weekend but that seems a long ways away right now.
Trump himself talked about a 4-5 week war but he probably wasn’t betting on oil prices rising so quickly. The President today took to Truth Social to say that prices will plunge after the operation but he didn’t say when that might be.
Aside from the war uncertainty hitting all assets, the fixed income market isn’t helping. US 10-year yields are up 8 bps to 4.21% and that will drive up borrowing costs everywhere. In Australia, 10-year rates are up 15 bps today to 4.99%, which is the highest since November 2023 and withing striking distance of 5% for the first time this decade.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
