It’s very hard to know what the economy is going to doI have always felt there was a pathway to getting inflation back to 2% without the kind of pain that has been typicalA hard landing scenario isn’t a likely scenarioI am very happy doing this jobWill stay in office until May of 2026When the Fed gets confidence in inflation it will be time to moveThe eurozone went through a significant period of lower growth, is in a different position than the USThere are little differences in timing between global central banks but when the history is written, it will be about the commonalities in policyThe Fed meeting is usually over by 11 am before the decisionFed has the authority it needs, Fed Reserve Act is in a ‘fine place’I’m worried ‘over time’ about the levels of US deficits but not the Fed’s job to advise policy
Powell has highlighted the improvement in CPI and said they’re getting data that makes them more confident ‘lately’.
Goldman Sachs was talking about a July rate cut today and those odds got up to 13% before Powell but have sank to 6% since Powell spoke. If he wanted to put it on the table, it pretty much had to be today with the blackout hitting Friday.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
