New York Fed survey shows
Inflation
Median inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% (one-year) and 2.8% (five-year).Three-year median inflation expectations increased from 2.3% in July to 2.5%.Disagreement among respondents on inflation expectations widened at all three horizons.Inflation uncertainty remained unchanged for one-year and declined for three- and five-year horizons.Median home price growth expectations increased to 3.1% from 3.0%.Year-ahead expected price changes:Gas: Increased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.6%Rent: Increased by 0.2 percentage point to 7.3%Medical care: Increased by 0.4 percentage point to 8.0%Food: Decreased by 0.3 percentage point to 4.4%College education: Decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 5.9%
Labor Market
Median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth rose to 2.9% from 2.7%, notably for households earning less than $50,000 annually.Mean unemployment expectations increased to 37.7% from 36.6%.Mean perceived probability of job loss in the next 12 months fell by 1.0 percentage point to 13.3%.Mean probability of voluntarily leaving a job in the next 12 months decreased to 19.1% from 20.7%.Mean perceived probability of finding a job if current job lost decreased slightly to 52.3%.
Household Finance
Median expected household income growth increased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1%.Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.0%.Perceptions of credit access improved compared to a year ago, with more respondents expecting easier credit conditions.Probability of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months rose by 0.3 percentage point to 13.6%, the highest since April 2020.Median expected year-ahead change in taxes at current income levels declined to 3.9%.Median expected growth in government debt decreased to 9.1% from 9.3%.Mean perceived probability that savings account interest rates will be higher in 12 months increased by 1.5 percentage points to 26.6%.Perceptions of current financial situations slightly deteriorated; however, optimism remains higher than a year ago.Mean perceived probability of higher U.S. stock prices in 12 months remained unchanged at 39.3%.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
