- Prior month 18.7
- Current month (December) -3.90
- Estimate 10.0
NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index – December Overview
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Business activity declined slightly in December, following two months of expansion.
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Headline general business conditions index fell to -3.9, down sharply from last month’s high, turning negative again.
New orders and shipments:
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New orders were steady, with roughly one-third of firms reporting increases and about one-third reporting declines.
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Shipments declined modestly, reflecting softer near-term demand.
Supply chain and inventories
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Delivery times shortened, indicating easing supply chain pressures.
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Supply availability worsened, suggesting renewed input constraints.
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Inventories increased modestly, pointing to stockpiling amid uncertainty.
Employment and hours worked
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Employment increased modestly, with the employment index rising to 7.3, its sixth positive reading in seven months.
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Average workweek edged lower, signaling only limited labor demand momentum.
Inflation and pricing pressures
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Input price increases slowed for a second straight month, but remain elevated.
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Prices paid index fell to 37.6, the lowest level since January.
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Prices received also declined, easing margin pressures slightly but staying historically high.
Capital spending and investment
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Capital spending plans increased, with the capex index rising to 6.9, signaling modest investment growth.
Outlook and business sentiment
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Firms became increasingly optimistic about the next six months.
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Future business conditions index rose to its highest level since January.
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Expectations for future new orders and shipments improved sharply.
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Firms expect price pressures to remain elevated, while inventories are forecast to expand further.
Bottom line
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Current activity softened, but forward-looking optimism strengthened.
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Inflation pressures are easing but not resolved, while employment and investment remain supportive of a gradual manufacturing recovery.
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This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
