The NZDUSD pushed to a new high today—its highest level since November 2024—before stalling near a key swing area between 0.6031 and 0.6045, which also includes the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the late September 2024 high, coming in at 0.60357.
After failing to break through that resistance zone, the pair rotated lower and is now trading at new session lows, with the most recent dip reaching 0.5969. This decline brings the pair closer to the rising 100-hour moving average, currently at 0.5964. Yesterday, the 100-hour MA was tested for the first time since April 9, and buyers successfully defended the level.
Heading into the new trading day, the 100-hour MA will be a key technical barometer. Dip buyers may look to lean against this support, hoping for a rebound toward the highs and another test of the 61.8% retracement and swing area. However, a break below the 100-hour MA would shift the focus to the 50% retracement at 0.5930, followed by the rising 200-hour moving average at 0.5907.
Sustained movement below both the 50% level and the 200-hour MA would be needed to strengthen the bearish bias and suggest a more meaningful reversal in the pair’s recent uptrend.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
