The RBNZ’s 25-basis-point cut yesterday — paired with guidance that rates will likely remain steady for an extended period — gave buyers the green light. The NZDUSD responded with a strong 1.4% gain, the biggest mover on the day. Today, the pair tacked on another 0.30% at the highs, making it the top performer for a second straight session.
For traders, this is where the technical roadmap becomes essential: the bias, the risk, and the targets.
You start by defining the directional bias — and often the fundamental trigger behind it (but sometimes not), such as the RBNZ’s hawkish cut. Then you identify the risk to that view, understanding that risk levels are dynamic. As the market travels and breaks through targets, traders should re-mark their risk points if the trend still has room to run. Targets, meanwhile, act as destinations. As price approaches them, you decide whether to take profit, reduce risk, or even shift your broader bias. Technical tools are what help define all of these components.
This applies not only to NZDUSD but to any deep market — EURUSD, Amazon, crude oil, bitcoin — wherever buyers and sellers are constantly repositioning around bias, risk, and target zones.
In the video above, I walk through the NZDUSD roadmap. The pair turned more bullish on the RBNZ’s “hawkish cut,” extended into a key target area, corrected back to a support retracement, and then launched into a fresh upside leg today. That run higher reached a swing zone (i.e. target) between 0.57232 and 0.57312, where buyers stalled. A break above would give bulls more control.
On the downside, risk is now centered near the 50% midpoint of the range since the late-October high at 0.5688, which also sits inside a swing area. If sellers are to take back control (turn the bias around), they need to push the price below that zone — and stay below it.
The targets and risk levels are the levels/areas where traders who can be buyers or sellers tend to congregate and decide a winner. Today, the buyers pushed to the swing area, but were met in the swing area by the sellers. There is a battle but because the move this week has been strong, they have work to do in order to prove they can take back control. Meanwhile, the buyers have to weigh if the target is a strong enough level to lean against to take profit – or even think about reversing.
Such is the story of trading which I look to express in my video’s and posts.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
