Unfortunately, I reckon we might get a repeat performance to his comments last week in Congress. Sure, there was the US CPI report in between that and now. But I don’t think Powell will choose to rock the boat again today. It will be too early to be that confident on the inflation outlook, or at least to not be explicit about it.
He might acknowledge last week’s report as being one in the right direction but the overall progress remains gradual. There’s still time before committing to a move in September, so there is little to gain by preempting that at this point in time.
Once again, it’ll likely be a case of what Powell doesn’t say is what might matter more for markets.
September is pretty much fully priced in now while traders are seeing some ~63 bps of rate cuts for the year.
He will be due to speak in an interview later at the Economic Club of Washington D.C. at 1600 GMT with the event to carry on until 1730 GMT.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
