Speculation over President Donald Trump’s health has spilled into prediction markets, where platforms are now offering contracts on whether he will remain in office through year-end.
Event contracts launched last weekend by Kalshi and Polymarket, two crypto-focused prediction markets, priced Trump’s chances of leaving the White House before 2026 at between 6% and 10%. Traders are effectively wagering on scenarios such as resignation, removal, or, in Polymarket’s case, death, though Kalshi has clarified its contracts would not resolve to “yes” on a death outcome.
The wagers surged after viral rumors circulated on X claiming Trump had died, amplified by a brief period without public appearances and photos showing bruising on his hand. The White House previously attributed the marks to a circulatory condition, and Trump himself sought to quash speculation, posting that he had “never felt better” and later appearing publicly at his Virginia golf course.
Despite those reassurances, volumes have been brisk:
- Polymarket’s contracts have drawn more than $500,000 in trades, while Kalshi has seen similar levels.
Both platforms are positioning themselves to capitalize on the heightened attention, though the pricing reflects a market consensus that Trump’s exit this year remains highly unlikely.
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This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
