RBA to cut its cash rate in August & November 2025, then again in February and May 2026

Via Westpac, in brief:

• RBA to hold in July
• to cut in August and November
• lower inflation outlook now makes two further cuts in early 2026 likely, February and May

WPAC caveat the 2026 call with:

• the cuts could be earlier (December and February or February and March) if inflation and the labour market turn out weaker late in 2025 than we currently expect

WPAC see a terminal rate 2.85% (the current cash rate is 3.85%)

• We regard the cash rate at 2.85% as being at the lower end of the ‘neutral range’.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.