FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEW
The S&P 500 broke
through a key support on Friday and extended the losses into new lows as
traders hedged into the weekend risk. Those hedges are being unwound today
given that nothing happened over the weekend.
The focus remains solely on
the US-Iran negotiations and there’s some cautious optimism as Pakistan confirmed that negotiations
may take place in Islamabad in the coming days and Trump said that they are performing
extremely well and
they could make a deal pretty soon, although he added that they might fail as
well.
The path of least
resistance remains to the downside until we get a resolution. Traders will keep
a watchful eye on the headlines and especially on Trump’s Truth Social account,
as we are always one post away from huge market moves.
Trump’s ceasefire expires on April 6, so there’s a chance we get a deal before that as failure to reach one would increase substantially recession risks.
S&P 500
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On
the daily chart, we can see that
the S&P 500 broke through the key
support around the 6,525 level again on Friday and eventually extended the
losses into the 6,363 level before bouncing. From a risk management
perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the
broken support turned resistance to position for new lows. The buyers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to extend the pullback
into the major trendline.
S&P 500
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On
the 4 hour chart, we have a
minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. The sellers will likely
lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new
lows, while the buyers will look for a break to extend the pullback into the
6,525 resistance.
S&P 500 TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much we can add here as the sellers will look for a rejection around the
trendline, while the buyers will look for a break. The red lines define average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Today we have Fed Chair Powell speaking. Tomorrow, we get the US Consumer
Confidence and US Job Openings data. On Wednesday, we have the US ADP, the US
Retail Sales and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. On Thursday, we get the latest
US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP
report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
