The FT reports that Trump threatened to stop weapons for Ukraine unless Europe joined a Hormuz coalition to break the blockade. That’s using one geopolitical crisis as a bargaining chip in another — and evidently it worked.
The Europeans had been saying the strait situation was “not our war,” but after Trump went — reportedly “rather hysterical” according to one official — NATO chief Rutte scrambled to put together a joint statement from France, Germany, and the UK pledging to help with the strait, the report says.
This isn’t new and came together on March 19, and more countries have signed on since.
The real kicker: Trump told Reuters he’d “absolutely” consider withdrawing from NATO entirely. Whether that’s a negotiating tactic or genuine intent almost doesn’t matter at this point — the uncertainty alone reshapes how every allied capital plans its defense spending and every energy trader prices risk.
Watch Starmer’s coalition talks with the 35 signatories this week. If there’s a credible plan to reopen Hormuz after hostilities end, that’s the catalyst for oil to come off the boil.
Notably, there was a report today that Europe and other countries were considering sanctions on Iran if it didn’t open on the Strait.
What the market is increasingly concluding is simple: Trump wants this war to end and the US has an abundance of levers to pull to make that happen. Maybe it’s NATO, maybe it’s tariffs, maybe it’s sanctions against others. There are really no rules and limits to US Presidential power any longer and no one is going to fight too hard for Iran.
What’s not yet clear is if Iran’s Revolutionary Guard will play along and if there’s really a deal to be made with them. Ultimately, they have weapons and ships along Iran’s 1000 mile coastline are sitting ducks even with escorts. They’re still hitting targets all over the Middle East with relative accuracy and an oil tanker is a big target that’s much closer.
So Trump is getting the benefit of the doubt right now but don’t take your eyes off of Iran. Notably, we have seen stocks come off the highs in the past hour or so.
Another thing to watch is a letter that Iran’s President will issue “to Americans” within the next 30 minutes or so.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
