The USD is lower after the lower PPI data and the higher initial and continuing claims. The weakness in the jobs is a shift from the norm that has defined the range. Looking at the continuing claims data, the break higher is evident.
For the initial claims, the trend has not broken out of the range going back to 2022, but is pushing higher.
The PPI coupled with the CPI from yesterday which was also weaker, should lead to a good PCE number. Estimates for that will be released later today as the number pushers put it in their models.
For the major currency pairs:
- EURUSD extended to new highs for the day and going back to 2021. The next key target comes in at 1.1683 – 1.16916. The high price today is still a ways away at 1.1631. There is support at the April high at 1.15726. Buyers are in control.
- USDJPY: The USDJPY moved back below the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart and a swing area down to 143.57. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the next major support I see comes in between 1.2.10 and 142.347 (red circles on the chart below).
- The GBPUSD traded to a new high for the year and new high going back to February 2022. The next target comes against a swing area from 2022 at 1.36445. Above that and traders will start to target the 50% midpoint of the move down from the 2014 high to the 2022 low. That Midpoint level comes in at 1.37683 (see weekly chart below). The high price today has reached 1.3622 so far.
- The USDCHF has extended toward the low of a swing level going back to April 2025. That swing area comes in between 0.8097 and 0.81288. Right below that level and the low for 2025 at 0.80389 becomes the next key target. With the price currently trading at 0.8119, the closest risk is at the high of the swing area at 0.81288. Above that, and traders will look back toward the swing low from last week at 0.81554.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
