UBS Wealth Management on the latest tariffs threat from Trump:
- Sees White House tariff escalation as a negotiation tactic; expects eventual de-escalation.
- Base case: U.S. effective tariff rate to settle near 15%, allowing S&P 500 to keep rising.
- Believes a U.S.-EU trade deal is likely before August 1, or the deadline will be extended.
- Acknowledges risk of U.S.-EU tensions worsening, which would hurt both economies.
- On Mexico: Trump notes progress on border and trade, but wants more action; UBS sees no disruptive retaliation from Mexico.
UBS’ asset views:
- Recommends gradually increasing equity exposure, using market volatility to enter.
- Favors U.S. tech, healthcare, and financials; Asian tech (Taiwan, India, China); quality/thematic European plays.
- Suggests gold as a hedge against ongoing policy risk.
—
Earlier on gold:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
