Prior was +114K
Details of the August 2024 jobs report:
Two-month net revision: -86K versus -29K priorUnemployment rate: 4.2% versus 4.2% expected (prior was 4.3%)Unrounded unemployment rate: 4.220% vs 4.252% priorParticipation rate: 62.7% versus 62.7% priorPrivate payrolls +118K vs +139K expectedPrior private payrolls 97K (revised to 74K)U6 underemployment rate: 7.9% versus 7.8% priorAverage hourly earnings: +0.4% m/m versus +0.3% m/m expectedPrior avg hourly earnings: +0.2% m/m (revised to -0.1%)Average hourly earnings: +3.8% y/y versus +3.7% y/y expectedAverage weekly hours: 34.3 versus 34.2 priorChange in manufacturing payrolls: -24K versus +1K priorHousehold survey: +168K versus +67K priorGovernment jobs: +24K versus +17K priorFull time: -438K versus +448K priorPart time: +527K versus -325K prior
Fed pricing showed a 43% chance of a 50 bps cut ahead of the release and 110 bps of easing priced in this year ahead of the release. Immediately afterwards, that’s up to 57% and 119 bps. Looking out through Sept 2025, 229 bps of easing was priced in and that’s up to 241 bps.
USD/JPY was trading at 143.30 just ahead of the release and has been whippy afterwards, initially rising then turning lower to 142.41.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
