- Prior was +5.3%
- Durable goods orders ex-transport +0.9% vs +0.3% expected
- Prior ex-transport +0.4%
- Durable goods ex-defense -2.5% vs +6.5% prior
- Non-defense capital goods ex-air +0.6% vs +0.4% expected
- Prior +0.4%
- Shipments +1.0% vs -0.2% prior (revised to -0.3%)
USD/JPY was trading at 153.66 ahead of the data, the market was pricing in 60 bps of easing that shifted to 59 bps afterwards.
The way to think about this report is that the ‘orders’ numbers are forward looking but volatile and that the non-defense capital goods reading is the best look at underlying demand, though still messy. The shipments number feeds into GDP and will mean an modest upgrade to expectations, given the revision lower in the prior.
The durable goods report through the fall told a story of volatile headline numbers masking steadier underlying demand, with aircraft orders driving sharp month-to-month swings.
In September, new orders rose 0.5% to $313.7 billion, marking a second consecutive monthly increase following a strong 3.0% gain in August. Transportation equipment edged up 0.4%, while broader gains were seen across electrical equipment (+1.5%), primary metals (+1.4%), and computers and electronic products (+0.5%). Excluding transportation, orders rose a solid 0.6%. Core capital goods orders (nondefense ex-aircraft), a key proxy for business spending plans, increased 0.9% for the second straight month, signaling healthy investment momentum heading into Q4.
October saw a sharp reversal, with orders plunging 2.2% to $307.4 billion — worse than the expected 1.5% decline. A 23.7% collapse in aircraft orders drove the headline drop, pulling transportation equipment down 6.5%. Both nondefense and defense aircraft orders saw steep declines of 20.1% and 32.4%, respectively. However, the details were more reassuring: excluding transportation, orders still rose 0.2%, and core capex orders increased 0.5% for a fourth consecutive month. Machinery (+0.8%), fabricated metals (+0.5%), and computers (+1.0%) all posted gains.
November delivered a strong rebound, with orders surging 5.3% to $323.8 billion — well above the 3.0–3.7% consensus — as transportation equipment soared 14.7%, fueled by a 97.6% spike in civilian aircraft bookings tied to large orders at a major airshow. Electrical equipment (+1.7%), fabricated metals (+1.0%), machinery (+0.5%), and computers (+0.2%) all contributed. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.5%, while excluding defense they jumped 6.6%. Core capex orders rose 0.7%, extending the string of gains and pointing to solid business investment heading into 2026.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
