- Highest since March of 2022
- Prices for nonfuel imports rose 1.1% in February
- Prior was +0.2%
- Export prices +1.5% vs +0.5% expected
- Prior export prices +0.6%
This is before the war. I’m starting to get the feeling we’re about to have a big inflation problem as it was broad based. Higher prices for imports were driven by capital goods; nonfuel industrial supplies
and materials; consumer goods excluding automotives; foods, feeds, and beverages; and automotive
vehicles, parts and engines.
Import prices rose 1.3% month-over-month, blowing past the kind of readings we’ve been getting. That’s the biggest monthly gain since the 2.9% spike back in March 2022, when post-COVID supply chain chaos was still ripping through the data. On a year-over-year basis, import prices are up 1.3% — the strongest annual read since February 2025.
What’s driving it? A bit of everything, frankly. Fuel imports jumped 3.8% on the month, with natural gas absolutely ripping at +24.7%. But this isn’t just an energy story — nonfuel imports rose 1.1%, and that’s the number that should get your attention. Capital goods prices surged 1.3%, the largest advance since the BLS started publishing that series monthly in December 1988. Computers, peripherals, semiconductors, and industrial machinery were the culprits there.
Nonfuel industrial supplies and materials climbed 2.6%, building on January’s 2.4% gain. Finished metals shapes and advanced manufacturing are where the pressure is concentrated — think tariff front-running.
On the export side, prices jumped 1.5%, the biggest monthly move since May 2022. Year-over-year export prices are running at +3.5%. Nonag industrial supplies surged 3.6% on the month, led by natural gas, crude, and nonferrous metals. Export prices to Canada rose 1.9% in February alone and are up 6.5% year-over-year — the hottest since late 2022.
The terms of trade with the EU improved 2.6% in February, suggesting US exporters are gaining pricing power relative to what we’re paying for European goods.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
