And that will keep markets in a bit of a bind until we get to the release later in the day. The estimate for headline annual inflation is for it to slow to 3.1%. Meanwhile, core annual inflation is estimated to remain at 3.4% – unchanged from May. Either way, the details are going to be as important as the numbers above. So, just be wary of that. These were from last month.
As much as markets are waiting with bated breath on the report, it might end up being a case of it not changing anything.
Traders are seeing two rate cuts by year-end for the Fed now and it will take a real surprise to shift that expectation. It’s kind of a Goldilocks position for the Fed, so they’re quite fine with this.
I mean, we already saw how things played out in the last two months. It all starts with traders reacting to the inflation numbers, only to reverse the moves in the days later.
In any case, the waiting and anticipation will make for a more pensive session later in Europe. So, don’t expect major moves before we get to the main event later in the day.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
